2024: The Joe Ryan Renaissance

[Cody Pirkl]

Joe Ryan’s 2023 season fell apart due to injury after a dominant start. Can better health and a few adjustments help him sustain that success throughout 2024?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports

Joe Ryan had a 3.70 ERA through his first 107 innings in 2023 before that number ballooned to 6.09 in 54.2 second-half innings. A groin injury is a likely explanation, but pairing better health with a few adjustments could make him the front-end starting pitcher the Twins desperately need after Sonny Gray’s departure.

Joe Ryan was rolling along in a dominant 2023 season when he allowed five homers in three innings to a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup on June 27. He would make six more starts, never looking quite the same before he admitted to an ongoing groin injury, which ultimately sent him to the IL. He did return and even made a start in the postseason, but the Twins clearly had lost faith, and Ryan looked far from his dominant first-half self.

It’s a fair assumption that Joe Ryan and the Twins won’t just be banking on good health. They’ll likely be looking to make a few adjustments to his game as well.

Joe Ryan was thought of as a fastball-only pitcher by many when the Twins acquired him. He had some risk of becoming a reliever with his lack of pitch mix variety. Homers have certainly been the Achilles' heel of his career thus far, as his rate of allowing the long ball has increased year over year consistently since reaching the MLB.

Notably, Ryan has allowed 56 homers, with 31 coming on his fastball. He still uses the pitch over half of the time, and while it’s responsible for many of his strikeouts and a good bit of poor contact, it has gotten punished when hitters catch up to it. As he’s dropped the fastball usage from 65% in 2021 to 56.9% in 2023, he’s also diversified his arsenal.

In 2022, the Twins introduced a sweeper into his repertoire. The pitch succeeded in minimal sample size, and he used it even more in 2023 with positive results.

 

The sweeper became his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a 32.3% whiff rate, and was an excellent counter to tough right-handed hitters.

In 2023, Ryan added a splitter and instantly made it his second most used pitch, using it plenty against right and left-handed hitters. The pitch replaced Ryan's straight change in 2022, which had uneven results. 

Ryan now has a pitch mix that should be capable of turning over lineups 3+ times when he’s at his best. The trick in 2024 will be perfecting the actual mix. The Twins may believe that the 56.9% of the time Ryan used his heater in 2023 is still too high. While nobody else on the Twins compares to Joe Ryan regarding effectiveness with their fastball, it’s interesting to compare him to the rest of the rotation.

Pablo Lopez throws his fastball less than 35% of the time. Ober threw his 45.7% of the time. Chris Paddack’s fastball has had a similar reputation to Joe Ryan’s throughout his career, and it’s noteworthy that in his limited debut with the Twins in 2022, he threw his dominant four seams a career-low 51.8% of the time and looked like the best version of himself before the injury. We can likely count on Joe Ryan lowering the fastball usage even more in 2024, and as he gets more comfortable with his offspeed pitches, it should only help him. 

Joe Ryan’s 2023 came to a quiet end as he was skipped over several times in the playoffs before being essentially used as an opener in the season finale last October. His injury and late-season struggles have likely made us forget just how good his season began, and the year as a whole was filled with positives for a pitcher who was once thought to have only one usable offering.

Another step forward is undoubtedly in the cards for Joe Ryan, as he and the Twins will continue to fine-tune his approach. The hope is that he can return a clean bill of health in 2024, as he’d shown for the entirety of his professional career before 2023. If the second half of the season made you forget, here’s your reminder: Joe Ryan will be a massive piece of the 2024 rotation.

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[Doctor Gast]

Ryan pitched better in '23 than '22 & I expect him to pitch better in '24 with more Quality innings pitched. Last year like the year before Ryan (like Ober) hit a wall. The secret is look for signs & scale back innings. This year that wall will be farther down the road. 

Ryan always picks veterans mind, always trying to get better. Of course, he needs to reduce the long ball but a few solo HRs won't hurt. As long he gets his strike outs. (the same as the Twins hitting theory against opposing pitchers of get a bunch of SOs, they won't hurt you as long as you keep hitting HRs when you don't need them)

[Muppet]

I wonder the degree to which his success is due to pitching in the AL central. If I remember right, he struggled against good teams and when pitching against hot shot pitchers. Either way, if he and Ober improve, the twins pitching will be in a good place. 

[CRF]

We really need Ryan to pitch like a consistent, solid, mid rotation guy. He also needs to get better at keeping the ball in the yard. He's got the talent to do it. 

[The Mad King]

Joe's downturn in both seasons came after trips to the Bay area. Just throwing it out there....

[Launch Angle]

19 hours ago, Muppet said:

I wonder the degree to which his success is due to pitching in the AL central. If I remember right, he struggled against good teams and when pitching against hot shot pitchers. Either way, if he and Ober improve, the twins pitching will be in a good place. 

In 2022 Ryan got absolutely shelled against non AL central teams but this year he was significantly better. That was a significant concern coming into this year but he did much better in 2023 especially when considering they played AL central teams much less due to the leaguewide change in scheduling.

[JD-TWINS]

Everyone that pitches has better success against weaker line-ups, not just a Joe Ryan phenomena.

Having a vertical movement pitch and a horizontal movement pitch and getting those honed……that’s what allows his fastball to be less hittable at a 50% usage rate. IMO, he just wasn’t getting his fastball up enough on certain days. Big difference between gut high & top of letters. He definitely changed the location after he came back from the leg injury and finished fairly strong.

Am looking for good things - with health. He’s laid back externally but like most pros, he’s a real competitor and wants to improve.

[jmlease1]

Hopefully Ryan also learned the lesson about trying to hide an injury: don't effing do it! That was his biggest mistake last season.

The splitter looks like it could be a really effective 3rd pitch for Ryan, one that can keep him out of trouble and change hitters eyelines nicely. It also might help him to have his 3 pitches locked in, so that he can work on refinement rather than trying to work on an entirely new pitch, or bouncing back and forth between offerings to see what might stick.

I think Ryan is going to chew up a lot of good innings for the Twins in 2024. I think he's a playoff caliber starter, and would argue his use as an opener of sorts in the playoffs in 2023 had more to do with the position team was in than faith in him. (they were in an elimination game, so it made sense to throw everything at it, plus if they win they have a day off following, and then have their ace lined up to take the ball for game 5. I suspect that if the Twins had been up 2-1 rather than down 2-1 Ryan would have gotten a more typical start)

[Blyleven2011]

Joe Ryan went to driveline during the off season before the 2023 season , he had a very good start to the season  before the injury bug got him ...

Did Ryan go back to driveline this off season  ???

I heard mention that he did but not sure it was confirmed  ...

[Ruven]

On 1/20/2024 at 3:08 PM, The Mad King said:

Joe's downturn in both seasons came after trips to the Bay area. Just throwing it out there....

Let the conspiracy theories begin 😎

[TopGunn#22]

I think driveline definitely helped him and I hope he went back there.  I think as he continues to develop more confidence in his sweeper and sinker and mixes them better he will be closer to the pitcher he was in the first half than anything he was in a disappointing second half.  I'd like to see the Twins make a bold move to find a #2 starter ahead of him.  But if that doesn't happen, I'm quite content to have him as our #2 going into 2024.  

[Doctor Wu]

Like most everyone else,  I'm hoping for a healthy and productive season from Ryan. It's always seemed like he has the "right" mindset to excel as a pitcher, so hopefully he can make the necessary adjustments with his pitch selection and limit those confounded homers. I remain hopeful.