2024: The Joe Ryan Renaissance

Joe Ryan had a 3.70 ERA through his first 107 innings in 2023 before that number ballooned to 6.09 in 54 2/3 second-half innings. A groin injury is a likely explanation, but pairing better health with a few adjustments could make him the front-end starting pitcher the Twins desperately need after Sonny Gray’s departure.

Joe Ryan was rolling along in a dominant 2023 season when he allowed five homers in three innings to a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup on June 27. He would make six more starts, never looking quite the same before he admitted to an ongoing groin injury, which ultimately sent him to the IL. He did return and even made a start in the postseason, but the Twins clearly had lost faith, and Ryan looked far from his dominant first-half self.

It’s a fair assumption that Joe Ryan and the Twins won’t just be banking on good health. They’ll likely be looking to make a few adjustments to his game as well.

Joe Ryan was thought of as a fastball-only pitcher by many when the Twins acquired him. He had some risk of becoming a reliever with his lack of pitch mix variety. Homers have certainly been the Achilles' heel of his career thus far, as his rate of allowing the long ball has increased year over year consistently since reaching the MLB.

Notably, Ryan has allowed 56 homers, with 31 coming on his fastball. He still uses the pitch over half of the time, and while it’s responsible for many of his strikeouts and a good bit of poor contact, it has gotten punished when hitters catch up to it. As he’s dropped the fastball usage from 65% in 2021 to 56.9% in 2023, he’s also diversified his arsenal.

In 2022, the Twins introduced a sweeper into his repertoire. The pitch succeeded in minimal sample size, and he used it even more in 2023 with positive results.

The sweeper became his best swing-and-miss pitch, with a 32.3% whiff rate, and was an excellent counter to tough right-handed hitters.

In 2023, Ryan added a splitter and instantly made it his second most used pitch, using it plenty against right and left-handed hitters. The pitch replaced Ryan's straight change in 2022, which had uneven results. 

Ryan now has a pitch mix that should be capable of turning over lineups 3+ times when he’s at his best. The trick in 2024 will be perfecting the actual mix. The Twins may believe that the 56.9% of the time Ryan used his heater in 2023 is still too high. While nobody else on the Twins compares to Joe Ryan regarding effectiveness with their fastball, it’s interesting to compare him to the rest of the rotation.

Pablo Lopez throws his fastball less than 35% of the time. Ober threw his 45.7% of the time. Chris Paddack’s fastball has had a similar reputation to Joe Ryan’s throughout his career, and it’s noteworthy that in his limited debut with the Twins in 2022, he threw his dominant four seams a career-low 51.8% of the time and looked like the best version of himself before the injury. We can likely count on Joe Ryan lowering the fastball usage even more in 2024, and as he gets more comfortable with his offspeed pitches, it should only help him. 

Joe Ryan’s 2023 came to a quiet end as he was skipped over several times in the playoffs before being essentially used as an opener in the season finale last October. His injury and late-season struggles have likely made us forget just how good his season began, and the year as a whole was filled with positives for a pitcher who was once thought to have only one usable offering.

Another step forward is undoubtedly in the cards for Joe Ryan, as he and the Twins will continue to fine-tune his approach. The hope is that he can return a clean bill of health in 2024, as he’d shown for the entirety of his professional career before 2023. If the second half of the season made you forget, here’s your reminder: Joe Ryan will be a massive piece of the 2024 rotation.