When We Could See Top Twins Prospects Debut in 2024

[chpettit19]

29 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Ding. Ding. Ding.

He's already missed a bunch of time, and you’re going to bring him along slowly to build up innings? The bullpen is top heavy. Add him to the bottom and watch him climb the ranks.

You don't think there's any value in having your most talented minor league pitcher throw 125 innings in 2024 to set him up for 175+ innings in 2025 as a frontline starter if he's still the dominant pitcher he was before his surgery? There's more value in him throwing 60 innings? Why would you not plant him in the AA rotation and see what he can do before automatically cutting his possible innings of contribution in half?

Do you also have Prielipp earmarked for the pen already? He's going to be 24 before he pitches for the org again in any meaningful way and he's had less durability than Canterino.

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

His Dr reportedly cleared him for 125 innings this year. Do you think they won't actually let him do that, don't think he can do that, or don't think they should let him do that? If he can get to 125 this year I'd use him as a starter in the minors for the first half and then switch him to the big league pen if he's dominating as hoped.

2023 - 0 IP

2022 - 37 IP

2021 - 23 IP

2020 - 0 IP

2019 - 124.1 IP

2018 - 118.1 IP

2017 - 96 IP

He's never done it before. I wouldn't let him go more than 3 innings at a time.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

2023 - 0 IP

2022 - 37 IP

2021 - 23 IP

2020 - 0 IP

2019 - 124.1 IP

2018 - 118.1 IP

2017 - 96 IP

He's never done it before. I wouldn't let him go more than 3 innings at a time.

I mean 124.1 feels like a "technically he didn't get to 125," but that's fair. I don't know all the details of his injuries and what they believe caused them so I don't know how to determine how many he should go. Just curious as to why you had 75 innings as the target.

I'd treat him like every other starter in spring and if he's showing no struggles at the end of it I'd have no problem letting him go 125 if that's what my medical people are telling me he can do. If he can make 18 starts the first half of the year working his way up to 5 innings a start he'd be on track to take a rotation spot in 2025 after having been a bullpen weapon for the 2nd half of 2024. He's more talented than Varland. I'd much rather have Canterino in my 2025 rotation with Varland in the pen than the other way around.

[tony&rodney]

32 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

That would be representative of some pretty poor planning by the Twins I’d think. I’d much rather see a Buxton/Martin combo though than Castro or Gordon in CF consistently.

What planning are you expecting?

[Mike Sixel]

29 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You don't think there's any value in having your most talented minor league pitcher throw 125 innings in 2024 to set him up for 175+ innings in 2025 as a frontline starter if he's still the dominant pitcher he was before his surgery? There's more value in him throwing 60 innings? Why would you not plant him in the AA rotation and see what he can do before automatically cutting his possible innings of contribution in half?

Do you also have Prielipp earmarked for the pen already? He's going to be 24 before he pitches for the org again in any meaningful way and he's had less durability than Canterino.

Same argument people made about Duran....

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You don't think there's any value in having your most talented minor league pitcher throw 125 innings in 2024 to set him up for 175+ innings in 2025 as a frontline starter if he's still the dominant pitcher he was before his surgery? There's more value in him throwing 60 innings? Why would you not plant him in the AA rotation and see what he can do before automatically cutting his possible innings of contribution in half?

Do you also have Prielipp earmarked for the pen already? He's going to be 24 before he pitches for the org again in any meaningful way and he's had less durability than Canterino.

I don't think Canterino can throw 175 innings in a season (not that anyone else in MLB does that anymore). 75 innings in relief could build up to 125 innings next year in the rotation if you wanted.

Prielipp isn't burning options on the 40 man roster but he's also out for the season. I think I would probably fast track him to the bullpen as well.

You can't afford to burn years of development time on players who are 26 years old and on the 40 man roster. It's time to use him before he turns 30 and starts declining physically. Are you going to option him twice, have him debut at age 28 and hope his career lasts until he's 34?

[Mike Sixel]

If Canterino is a great RP, I'd take that with Duran and Stewart and Jax......that's more likely, imo, to work than him ever starting. He's not 21, he's on the 40 man.....use him. 

[Karbo]

44 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Royce would move to the OF before Lee, and that could help things in both respects.

And then what about Martin? I think Lee would bring a higher trade value. Or how about Martin and AK for a starter? Move Julian to 1st, doesn't he have some experience there?

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Same argument people made about Duran....

And? Would it not have been a better outcome to have him be our staff ace instead of closer? I don't know the details of his arm troubles either, or what the Drs were telling them about him. Is the worry that Canterino has another season ending injury by the end of April if you let him got 3, 4, or 5 innings on a normal buildup? Ober had injury problems his entire career before last year. Should he have been moved to the pen as well?

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I don't think Canterino can throw 175 innings in a season (not that anyone else in MLB does that anymore). 75 innings in relief could build up to 125 innings next year in the rotation if you wanted.

Prielipp isn't burning options on the 40 man roster but he's also out for the season. I think I would probably fast track him to the bullpen as well.

You can't afford to burn years of development time on players who are 26 years old and on the 40 man roster. It's time to use him before he turns 30 and starts declining physically. Are you going to option him twice, have him debut at age 28 and hope his career lasts until he's 34?

I don't see having Canterino make 18 starts until July before putting him in the pen as "burning" a year of development. I'd argue it's actually far more development than giving him nothing but pen innings. I didn't suggest debuting him at 28, I suggested debuting him this year in July. Shoot, maybe he struggles with the starting thing out of the gate and they switch him to the pen in May. I'm just saying that I start spring with him having the chance to work as a starter before banishing him to the pen.

The Twins had 3 pitchers with at least 60 pen innings last year. How do you picture them using Canterino that gets him to 75 innings? If they put him in the pen in April his career as a starter is over. Which you guys seem to be ok with, and that's totally fine. Definitely don't think that's crazy. Just not what I would do. Why didn't they put Ober in the pen? He debuted at 25 with far less fanfare and prospect pedigree than Canterino and had thrown 100 innings twice in his life. Has he been wasted?

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And? Would it not have been a better outcome to have him be our staff ace instead of closer? I don't know the details of his arm troubles either, or what the Drs were telling them about him. Is the worry that Canterino has another season ending injury by the end of April if you let him got 3, 4, or 5 innings on a normal buildup?

I'm crazy enough to try Duran in the rotation this year and replace him with Canterino in the bullpen. The difference is Duran has had the ability to develop as a pitcher at the major league level for 2 seasons whereas Canterino would be wasting his healthy innings in the minor leagues.

[SteveLV]

It seems to me that 99% of this analysis will turn upon injuries, or lack thereof.

If Correa (God forbid) were hurt, Lee likely to be promoted.

If AK goes down, Severino.

If Buxton goes down, or can't play CF, Martin.

Etc.

For the pitchers, spring training performance will also come into play for guys like Canterino and Festa.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm crazy enough to try Duran in the rotation this year and replace him with Canterino in the bullpen. The difference is Duran has had the ability to develop as a pitcher at the major league level for 2 seasons whereas Canterino would be wasting his healthy innings in the minor leagues.

Do you also want Varland in the pen from the start then? Should Ober have been moved to the pen to start last year? Shoot, Festa will be 24 next season so should he start in the pen instead of "wasting his healthy innings in the minor leagues?" Where's the cutoff?

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't see having Canterino make 18 starts until July before putting him in the pen as "burning" a year of development.

If Canterino has made 18 starts by July he's probably going to have a dead arm and be worthless the rest of the season. That's all you'll get out of him in 2024.

I actually don't think they get 75 innings out of Canterino in 2024. I'd put the over/under around 50. Do you want 10 minor league starts or most of the year in the bullpen?

[chpettit19]

Just now, DJL44 said:

If Canterino has made 18 starts by July he's probably going to have a dead arm and be worthless the rest of the season. That's all you'll get out of him in 2024.

I actually don't think they get 75 innings out of Canterino in 2024. I'd put the over/under around 50. Do you want 10 minor league starts or most of the year in the bullpen?

Yeah, I'm just going to have to go with what the medical professional is saying and not your guess. I don't mean that to be rude, but we have actual innings numbers from his surgeon so it's based on real things and more than our wild speculation (which generally I'm more than happy to throw around). We're coming from very different places on this when your number is 50 and mine is 125.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Do you also want Varland in the pen from the start then? 

If they find 2 more starters, absolutely. It is a waste of his time to spend the season in AAA. As-is they'll need him in the Opening Day rotation.

They ended up wasting a bunch of Ober's time in AAA last season but he was the 6th starter and it was pretty certain he would eventually get into the rotation.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I'm just going to have to go with what the medical professional is saying and not your guess. I don't mean that to be rude, but we have actual innings numbers from his surgeon so it's based on real things and more than our wild speculation (which generally I'm more than happy to throw around). We're coming from very different places on this when your number is 50 and mine is 125.

He's averaged 56 innings per season over the last 7 seasons. That's a real thing.

[chpettit19]

Just now, DJL44 said:

If they find 2 more starters, absolutely. It is a waste of his time to spend the season in AAA. As-is they'll need him in the Opening Day rotation.

They ended up wasting a bunch of Ober's time in AAA last season but he was the 6th starter and it was pretty certain he would eventually get into the rotation.

I think most of us assume they're looking to bring in 1 more arm and push Varland to that same 6th starter position that Ober had. He wouldn't spend the season in AAA. Much like Ober didn't last year. Unless you think there's going to be no injuries to the starting rotation. Varland could be the 8th starter and it'd be pretty certain he'd eventually get into the rotation. Most years he could be the 10th guy and he'd easily get in the rotation. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Martin, Canterino and one of the pitchers is all I see for this year.  Lee needs an injury opening, Severino is dependent on Kiriloff's health.  This is a really interesting list, but if all of them make we will have had a bad year with injuries.  It also depends on trades so it is fun, but unwise to think any of them are a lock. 

Lee is a much better prospect, and more pro-ready, than you describe. When he is ready, there isn't anyone that will hold him back on the mlb roster.

[chpettit19]

Just now, DJL44 said:

He's averaged 56 innings per season over the last 7 seasons. That's a real thing.

And Ober was at 69 per season the previous 8 seasons until he threw 167 last year. That's a real thing.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Varland could be the 8th starter and it'd be pretty certain he'd eventually get into the rotation. 

He was the 8th starter last year. He pitched 68 innings for the Twins.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He was the 8th starter last year. He pitched 68 innings for the Twins.

Because he was bad. He got sent down because of performance. Add Keuchel's 37.2 innings that Varland would've gotten had he been good and now he's up at 105.2. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And Ober was at 69 per season the previous 8 seasons until he threw 167 last year. That's a real thing.

Ober threw 77 and 92 innings in the previous two seasons, averaging 4-2/3 innings per start.

Canterino has NEVER thrown 77 innings in a professional season (highest is 37), has averaged 3 innings per start and is ramping up from a baseline of zero. I will bet $100 (pick your charity) that he doesn't pitch 125 innings in 2024.

[Mike Sixel]

41 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And? Would it not have been a better outcome to have him be our staff ace instead of closer? I don't know the details of his arm troubles either, or what the Drs were telling them about him. Is the worry that Canterino has another season ending injury by the end of April if you let him got 3, 4, or 5 innings on a normal buildup? Ober had injury problems his entire career before last year. Should he have been moved to the pen as well?

I don't for one minute think it is likely Canterino is healthy enough to pitch as a starter than I think it is likely Buxton plays 120 games in the field and 30 at DH. The Twins have 5 starters, plus SWR and Festa....they didn't have the luxury with Ober, IIRC. I'm suggesting what I'd do, not anything more or less. 

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Ober threw 77 and 92 innings in the previous two seasons, averaging 4-2/3 innings per start.

Canterino has NEVER thrown 77 innings in a professional season (highest is 37), has averaged 3 innings per start and is ramping up from a baseline of zero. I will bet $100 (pick your charity) that he doesn't pitch 125 innings in 2024.

I have no idea what the Twins will do with him in terms of starting or relieving so there's nowhere near enough info to make that bet. Would you bet 100 he doesn't top 55 since your baseline was 50?

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't for one minute think it is likely Canterino is healthy enough to pitch as a starter than I think it is likely Buxton plays 120 games in the field and 30 at DH. The Twins have 5 starters, plus SWR and Festa....they didn't have the luxury with Ober, IIRC. I'm suggesting what I'd do, not anything more or less. 

Both sides of this argument have merit.  Canterino has never been able to log a lot of innings but it's also not a good idea to convert a guy that can be a starter into a RP.  Good starters are the scarcer resource.  I also am inclined to give weight to the medical professionals advising the FO.  We should recognize we don't have all the pertinent information.  In concept, I like the idea of him starting and then going to the BP if he pushes his innings limit even though it's a best case scenario.

[DJL44]

The other part of this is the back end of the Twins bullpen looks pretty lousy. If they were as deep in the bullpen as Atlanta I'd agree, why not try Canterino as a starter. I really don't want to watch Balazovic and Sands cough up leads while Canterino throws his best innings in AAA.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

And then what about Martin? I think Lee would bring a higher trade value. Or how about Martin and AK for a starter? Move Julian to 1st, doesn't he have some experience there?

I think we can pump the brakes on anyone needing to leave the infield: Royce is locked in at 3B as long as he stays healthy, same with Correa. Lee can slide in at 2B and Julien can shift to either DH or 1B, or Lee can spend his first season or so as a super-utility guy who takes all the innings we've been giving to someone like Farmer and play some SS, 3B, and 2B as well as DHing occasionally to get his bat in the game.

There's not really that much of a numbers problem going forward, because there seems to be little chance Polanco will be here in 2025 (if not 2024) and a similar issue is cooking with Farmer. And once Julien, Lewis, and Lee are all in MLB it's not like we have a bunch of can't miss prospects hot on their heels (our best ones at that point are OFs like Rodriguez, Rosario, and Jenkins). But even if someone does make a big leap...that's the problem I want to have.

Injuries will happen, so Brooks Lee is likely to get some time. Kinda hope everyone is playing well enough and is healthy enough that we don't need him until June/July.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't for one minute think it is likely Canterino is healthy enough to pitch as a starter than I think it is likely Buxton plays 120 games in the field and 30 at DH. The Twins have 5 starters, plus SWR and Festa....they didn't have the luxury with Ober, IIRC. I'm suggesting what I'd do, not anything more or less. 

And I'm suggesting what I'd do. SWR, Balazovic, Sanchez, and Varland were all on the Saints roster opening day last year. They definitely could've put Ober in the pen if they wanted to. I have no idea how Canterino will do as a starter, but if his Dr says he's medically able to throw 125 innings I'd definitely start him out on that path and see how it goes. I don't see why you'd end his starting career if the Drs are telling you there's no medical reason why he can't do it. But I don't remember all the details of his arm injuries so I'm just going off what they say. If you're going to do it with Canterino you may as well do it with Prielipp, too. I don't like the idea of taking all their highest upside arms and turning them into pen arms before they even debut.

And as for the Duran comp, his minor league ERA was 3.99. Including 4.86 at AA and 5.06 at AAA. His health was not the only reason they turned him into a fire breathing pen dragon. Duran was 3.23 at A+. Canterino was 0.86 at A+ and 1.83 at AA in his admittedly very small sample sizes. I don't think they're such a straight comp for "arm troubles so move them to the pen."

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Canterino was 0.86 at A+ and 1.83 at AA in his admittedly very small sample sizes. I don't think they're such a straight comp for "arm troubles so move them to the pen."

Canterino was great but I don't think he ever went through an entire lineup more than twice. He was limited to 4 innings for all but two of those starts. He has a 2-2 lifetime minor league record because he's lasted long enough to get the win twice.