Robbie Ray to the Giants for Anthony Descalfini and Mitch Haniger

[Cory Engelhardt]

This one is fascinating to me. Ray is a former cy young winner who will come back midseason from tommy john, AND he can opt out after the 2024 season if he chooses.

Descalfini is healthy and serviceable, and Haniger had a number of good years with the Mariners.

What are your thoughts on this move?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/mariners-to-trade-robbie-ray-to-giants-for-mitch-haniger-anthony-desclafani.html#:~:text=Mariners To Trade Robbie Ray,Anthony DeSclafani - MLB Trade Rumors

[DJL44]

Also, Jose Caballero sent from Seattle to Tampa Bay for Luke Raley. These moves make Kepler to SEA less likely and Polanco to SEA more likely.

[LewFordLives]

Looks like a swap of bad contracts.  Just going by $$$, looks like Seattle saves about $25 million over the next three years (I'm assuming Ray doesn't opt out.)   Giants are probably crossing their fingers and hoping Ray returns to form and gives them at least one good year out of the remaining three of his contract. It's kind of a big gamble for the Giants. Even before his surgery, Ray's career has been kind of up and down.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Looks like a swap of bad contracts.  Just going by $$$, looks like Seattle saves about $25 million over the next three years (I'm assuming Ray doesn't opt out.)   Giants are probably crossing their fingers and hoping Ray returns to form and gives them at least one good year out of the remaining three of his contract. It's kind of a big gamble for the Giants. Even before his surgery, Ray's career has been kind of up and down.

It's a gamble worth taking for the Giants. Haniger and DeSclafini didn't contribute much last year. Addition by subtraction and a possible stud pitcher in return. 

[Jocko87]

2 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Looks like a swap of bad contracts.  Just going by $$$, looks like Seattle saves about $25 million over the next three years (I'm assuming Ray doesn't opt out.)   Giants are probably crossing their fingers and hoping Ray returns to form and gives them at least one good year out of the remaining three of his contract. It's kind of a big gamble for the Giants. Even before his surgery, Ray's career has been kind of up and down.

Depending on how much cash goes back, I haven't seen that number yet.  Hilarious his no trade expired 4 days ago.  Makes me feel like Seattle wasn't really counting him as part of their "pitching depth".

[chpettit19]

Nice to see some deals start being made. Does this make Seattle more likely to trade someone like Castillo? Do they prefer to start Woo or Miller in AAA so aren't planning to move anymore arms for bats? Dipoto likes to go big so wouldn't be surprised if there's more moves coming from him.

[mnfireman]

$3 MM going back to Seattle.

[tony&rodney]

I don't believe the Twins were willing to trade Kepler for less than a strong return, so Dipoto turned elsewhere. Smart move by Falvey. Also, despite the beliefs by some that Seattle was sound with their 2B/3B, clearly Dipoto did not and is looking for a link before the Mariners try Ryan Bliss. Fangraphs likes the Mariners, take the under until they get a bat.

[ashbury]

54 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Also, Jose Caballero sent from Seattle to Tampa Bay for Luke Raley. These moves make Kepler to SEA less likely and Polanco to SEA more likely.

What would we be looking to receive from Seattle, for Polanco?  My assumption had been pitching, but if they have parted with Ray does that leave them feeling they have surplus arms to trade from anymore?  They have 5 guys they presumably like, but do they want to part with any?

[LewFordLives]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

What would we be looking to receive from Seattle, for Polanco?  My assumption had been pitching, but if they have parted with Ray does that leave them feeling they have surplus arms to trade from anymore?

I would do Polanco for Emerson Hancock and a lotto ticket. Hancock does not replace Sonny Gray, but he's an intriguing arm who at least gives the Twins more depth. The question is would Seattle be willing to take on Polanco's salary?  If Seattle is looking to trim payroll, $10 million is still $10 million, even if it's for a good player like Polanco.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

What would we be looking to receive from Seattle, for Polanco?  My assumption had been pitching, but if they have parted with Ray does that leave them feeling they have surplus arms to trade from anymore?  They have 5 guys they presumably like, but do they want to part with any?

If they view Descalfini as a legit starter I think they have 6 guys now, plus Hancock as the 7th, on their 40-man.

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, ashbury said:

What would we be looking to receive from Seattle, for Polanco?  My assumption had been pitching, but if they have parted with Ray does that leave them feeling they have surplus arms to trade from anymore?  They have 5 guys they presumably like, but do they want to part with any?

They got an arm back for Ray (who will be available for the whole season) in DeSclafini. They are deeper now. I hope they would trade Woo, Miller or Hancock for Polanco. I hope it's not Polanco for DeSclafini.

[LewFordLives]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They got an arm back for Ray (who will be available for the whole season) in DeSclafini. They are deeper now. I hope they would trade Woo, Miller or Hancock for Polanco. I hope it's not Polanco for DeSclafini.

When healthy, DeSclafani is legit. Unfortunately, he's only pitched over 100 innings in two of the last five years.

[DJL44]

Looking over the rosters as part of this trade sparks ideas for further deals. WAR projections are from Fangraphs.

Twins trade: Jorge Polanco ($10.5M 2.5 WAR); Mariners trade Anthony DeSclafini ($12M 0.5), Luis Urias ($4.7M 2.0) and Walter Ford (RHP, #19 prospect).

Seattle upgrades at 2B and saves $6M. The Twins get a starting pitcher on a short-term market value deal, a good pitching prospect and a utility infielder with two years of team control which allows them to make the next deal.

Twins trade: Kyle Farmer ($6.6M 0.4); Giants trade Heliot Ramos ($0.75 0.1) and Joe Whitman (LHP, #14 prospect)

The Giants need a SS more than any team in baseball and have too many outfielders. The Twins get a backup CF option who crushed AAA in 2023 and the kind of projectable college pitching prospect they love. Plus, they shed the money they added in the Mariners deal. Feel free to rotate in any of the other dozen Giants pitching prospects if you think Whitman is the wrong guy.

This doesn't land the Twins a top of the rotation starter but it adds a couple pitching prospects that could help them swing that deal later. It also finishes out their shopping list for everything else except the top starting pitcher.

[LewFordLives]

If I'm the Twins, I want no part of DeScalfani. It could be Mahle all over again.

[TopGunn#22]

I rec'd DJL44 not because I totally agree with the trades, but because I like his thought process in how he could see this unfolding.  I have a different take on what I think the Twins should do to take advantage of this.

First, for those claiming Ryan Bliss made Polanco unpalatable to the Mariners, this trade with the Giants proves them wrong.  Second, acquiring Haniger doesn't necessarily mean the Mariners wouldn't be interested in Kepler.  A Kepler/Haniger platoon in RF could be quite potent for Seattle.  It also shows how willing the Mariners are to cut payroll if they would part with a former Cy Young winner for a broken down Haniger and DeSclafani.  

The time is now for the Twins to strike for Luis Castillo.  Replace Sonny Gray with the pitcher who was deemed his superior in every way in Cincinnati.  Go get Luis Castillo and put him at the top of your rotation, ahead of Pablo Lopez.  I'd love to see the Twins rolling into the post season with Castillo and Lopez pitching games 1 & 2. 

Maybe Seattle wouldn't be willing to accept BOTH Kepler and Polanco in a deal for Castillo as that would only save them $4 million or so.  But start the talks in earnest and bring a true Ace to the Twins rotation.  Dipoto has stated he will NOT be trading Miller or Woo.  Kirby and Gilbert are too expensive (trade wise) for the Twins.  The target for the Twins should be Castillo.  Not DeSclafani.    

[tony&rodney]

Falvey would be nuts to trade Polanco for DeSclafani. He would slot just above Dobnak and earn $12M.

Urias and Rojas had less than ten extra base hits last year. They are not good. Polanco on one leg is far better than either player. How on Earth are people finding ways to reduce the value of Jorge Polanco to such depths. DeSclafani, Urias, and Rojas would not help the Twins in any way.

The Twins and Mariners do not match up unless Dipoto decides to pay dearly. He won't.

[Fatbat]

@tony&rodney I agree that the play is for Castillo but I don’t think Seattle will give him up. Our FO likely wont be giving away any of our current talent either on that two way street. 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

DeSclafani, Urias, and Rojas would not help the Twins in any way.

They are just MLB depth which is why Seattle would need to add prospects to the deal if they want to deal their depth for the Twins starter.

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They are just MLB depth which is why Seattle would need to add prospects to the deal if they want to deal their depth for the Twins starter.

I appreciate that you and others are attempting to find ways to strengthen the team via trades and looking for ways to cut salary in the process. Thank you for your ideas.

Walter Ford is a decent lottery ticket. Perhaps in a year the Twins have enough confidence in Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, Lee, and others to look at trading Polanco for prospects. For now, Polanco is a key part of the Twins team as is Kepler. Winning the AL Central depends on their contributions. Only if a substantial player (Luzardo, Gilbert, Kirby) were returned in a major multi-player trade (take much more than JP/MK) should the Twins move either guy. 

DeSclafani is $12M, Urias is $4.7M. Neither players should be put on the 26 person roster because there are other players within the system already who are better. 

The Twins are in a bit of a spot. The players who might bring a desired pitcher are not the guys the Twins really want to trade and judging from the omission of their names from suggested deals neither do Twins fans. Seattle would be interested in Royce Lewis and maybe Brooks Lee. Miami and Milwaukee, same. Miami would also ask about Ryan Jeffers. So it gets difficult and unless a risky move is made, I can't see a big trade. What we do know is that one can never be certain and always expect the unknown. I don't have any suggestions except for lame attempts to pry away Edward Cabrera and he is not a sure thing with his lack of control. Quiet time.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Perhaps in a year the Twins have enough confidence in Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, Lee, and others to look at trading Polanco for prospects. For now, Polanco is a key part of the Twins team as is Kepler.

Here's where I disagree. I think Julien has already passed up Polanco on the depth chart and right now Polanco is a $10.5M backup 2B in decline. They need to find him a new home before he gets injured again and is untradeable at the deadline.

The Twins do NOT have 5 starters better than DeSclafini right now, which is the main problem they need to solve. I'm not certain they have 4 starters better than DeSclafini; Chris Paddack has a pretty sketchy performance record.

I'd rather the Twins give a contract to James Paxton and trade Polanco just for prospects but they may need to take salary back to get a deal done with Seattle.

[tony&rodney]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Here's where I disagree. I think Julien has already passed up Polanco on the depth chart and right now Polanco is a $10.5M backup 2B in decline. They need to find him a new home before he gets injured again and is untradeable at the deadline.

The Twins do NOT have 5 starters better than DeSclafini right now, which is the main problem they need to solve. I'm not certain they have 4 starters better than DeSclafini; Chris Paddack has a pretty sketchy performance record.

I'd rather the Twins give a contract to James Paxton and trade Polanco just for prospects but they may need to take salary back to get a deal done with Seattle.

Ok. Fair. We just totally disagree. No problem.

[nicksaviking]

This really makes it look the Mariners intend to trade one of their current five starters. What ever combination of vets and prospects the Mariners are looking for, it's hard not to get excited being a Twins fan. Both team’s needs fit great together.

[TopGunn#22]

It's interesting to see how Seattle is playing this so far.  They are a team who clearly thinks they can compete in 2024.  And probably not just for a division championship, especially with the pitching they have.  The problem they ran into last season and couldn't overcome was a very anemic offensive team.  They could certainly benefit from the length Polanco and/or Kepler or a Larnach could add to their current assortment of misfit hitters.  

Teoscar Hernandez was a massive fail for them in 2023.  Suarez was a fail.  They have the rotation and the bullpen to really be formidable in the playoffs if they could just have enough offense to scratch out some runs.  It's somewhat similar to the Dodger teams of the 60's.  Great rotation.  Good bullpen.  Who did you FEAR in their lineup?  Wills?  Willie Davis?  Ron Fairly?  Jim Lefebvre?  Those were their BEST options.  Very few people could name 2 other hitters.  

This current Twins FO has had the stones to deal a defending A.L. Batting Champ to get a top of the rotation starter.  The Twins FO in the 60's made deals for an Ace (Dean Chance-we gave up a fading Jimmie Hall, Don Mincher and Geno Cimoli) and Chance won 20 games his first season with the Twins.  We then traded an up and coming lefthander, Jim Merritt to the Reds to get a much needed upgrade at SS (Leo Cardenas) to start the 1969 season.  Even though Merritt won 20 games in 1970, the Twins never regretted the 3 solid seasons they got from Cardenas (1969-1971).

I would agree that Julien has already passed Polanco up.  We've got enough depth to withstand trading him.  Trading Kepler as well is really where the crunch begins.  One of those bats being absent the twins lineup in 2023 is O.K.  I'd offer that Julien will far surpass what Polanco will provide.  Julien straight up for Castillo would be an overpay for the Twins.  The Mariners would either have to send some money over to offset the $24 million dollar discrepancy between salaries.  Probably $12-$15 easily.  But for Castillo, I'd consider Julien straight up if a significant amount of cash was coming over with Brooks Lee waiting in the wings.  Going into 2024 there is no need to have Julien, Lee AND Polanco.  

[Linus]

55 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It's interesting to see how Seattle is playing this so far.  They are a team who clearly thinks they can compete in 2024.  And probably not just for a division championship, especially with the pitching they have.  The problem they ran into last season and couldn't overcome was a very anemic offensive team.  They could certainly benefit from the length Polanco and/or Kepler or a Larnach could add to their current assortment of misfit hitters.  

Teoscar Hernandez was a massive fail for them in 2023.  Suarez was a fail.  They have the rotation and the bullpen to really be formidable in the playoffs if they could just have enough offense to scratch out some runs.  It's somewhat similar to the Dodger teams of the 60's.  Great rotation.  Good bullpen.  Who did you FEAR in their lineup?  Wills?  Willie Davis?  Ron Fairly?  Jim Lefebvre?  Those were their BEST options.  Very few people could name 2 other hitters.  

This current Twins FO has had the stones to deal a defending A.L. Batting Champ to get a top of the rotation starter.  The Twins FO in the 60's made deals for an Ace (Dean Chance-we gave up a fading Jimmie Hall, Don Mincher and Geno Cimoli) and Chance won 20 games his first season with the Twins.  We then traded an up and coming lefthander, Jim Merritt to the Reds to get a much needed upgrade at SS (Leo Cardenas) to start the 1969 season.  Even though Merritt won 20 games in 1970, the Twins never regretted the 3 solid seasons they got from Cardenas (1969-1971).

I would agree that Julien has already passed Polanco up.  We've got enough depth to withstand trading him.  Trading Kepler as well is really where the crunch begins.  One of those bats being absent the twins lineup in 2023 is O.K.  I'd offer that Julien will far surpass what Polanco will provide.  Julien straight up for Castillo would be an overpay for the Twins.  The Mariners would either have to send some money over to offset the $24 million dollar discrepancy between salaries.  Probably $12-$15 easily.  But for Castillo, I'd consider Julien straight up if a significant amount of cash was coming over with Brooks Lee waiting in the wings.  Going into 2024 there is no need to have Julien, Lee AND Polanco.  

I don’t expect Julien to outperform Polanco next year but I really like your trade suggestion. I think the Twins should take on all of Castillos salary and get a good outfield or catching prospect to balance the trade. The Twins would be maxed in their spending but that’s fine. The club would be set. 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Linus said:

I don’t expect Julien to outperform Polanco next year but I really like your trade suggestion. I think the Twins should take on all of Castillos salary and get a good outfield or catching prospect to balance the trade. The Twins would be maxed in their spending but that’s fine. The club would be set. 

If the Twins can afford Luis Castillo, then they should just sign Snell. Polanco and Kepler could be off of the payroll after this season. Adding Castillo seems quite a stretch for 2025 unless the Twins return to the $155M range. 

I also do not see why Seattle would trade their #1 starting pitcher. Steep hill from my viewpoint. I think Falvey might have better luck with Miami.

[Linus]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

If the Twins can afford Luis Castillo, then they should just sign Snell. Polanco and Kepler could be off of the payroll after this season. Adding Castillo seems quite a stretch for 2025 unless the Twins return to the $155M range. 

I also do not see why Seattle would trade their #1 starting pitcher. Steep hill from my viewpoint. I think Falvey might have better luck with Miami.

Won’t Snell get substantially more dollars and certainly much longer term?

[ashbury]

If the speculation is that the Twins would go after DeSclafani, his injury history the past two years and his not-insignificant salary lead me away.

[tony&rodney]

57 minutes ago, Linus said:

Won’t Snell get substantially more dollars and certainly much longer term?

More dough, not longer. Unfortunately for Snell, many teams will be wary of his implosions and expected arm troubles. I'm not privy to anything but guess 4/$120M. The 7/$200M seems really high. we shall see. Snell has has 3 mediocre campaigns, 3 ok seasons, and 2 Cy Young years. In his 2 brilliant times Snell threw 180 innings but never reached 130 innings in any other year. I suspect he is getting a couple of 2/$70M and 3/$105M offers but is waiting for the $150-200M range. Teams would be crazy to go that high because Snell is very high risk. I mean Nola can be written in pen for season after season of solid production. Cole is showing his worth. Snell?

All these guys are beyond the Twins right now seemingly, including Castillo. Even if Polanco and Kepler come off of the books, you have raises for Correa, Lopez, and a host of arbitration players looming. 

We honestly just don't know where the Twins are heading with payroll but those heady predictions of last October of a payroll near $170 million are long gone. Right?

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Won’t Snell get substantially more dollars and certainly much longer term?

Snell should beat Rodon's guarantee which is $60M and 2 more years than Castillo.

If the Mariners decide to trade Castillo there will be a bidding war that the Twins are unlikely to win.