Robbie Ray to the Giants for Anthony Descalfini and Mitch Haniger

[Linus]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

More dough, not longer. Unfortunately for Snell, many teams will be wary of his implosions and expected arm troubles. I'm not privy to anything but guess 4/$120M. The 7/$200M seems really high. we shall see. Snell has has 3 mediocre campaigns, 3 ok seasons, and 2 Cy Young years. In his 2 brilliant times Snell threw 180 innings but never reached 130 innings in any other year. I suspect he is getting a couple of 2/$70M and 3/$105M offers but is waiting for the $150-200M range. Teams would be crazy to go that high because Snell is very high risk. I mean Nola can be written in pen for season after season of solid production. Cole is showing his worth. Snell?

All these guys are beyond the Twins right now seemingly, including Castillo. Even if Polanco and Kepler come off of the books, you have raises for Correa, Lopez, and a host of arbitration players looming. 

We honestly just don't know where the Twins are heading with payroll but those heady predictions of last October of a payroll near $170 million are long gone. Right?

I guess we are on different pages. I see Snell getting way more than $105 million. And agreed that it is really tough to speculate about where the payroll limit is and that determines everything. 

[Rik19753]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Here's where I disagree. I think Julien has already passed up Polanco on the depth chart and right now Polanco is a $10.5M backup 2B in decline. They need to find him a new home before he gets injured again and is untradeable at the deadline.

The Twins do NOT have 5 starters better than DeSclafini right now, which is the main problem they need to solve. I'm not certain they have 4 starters better than DeSclafini; Chris Paddack has a pretty sketchy performance record.

I'd rather the Twins give a contract to James Paxton and trade Polanco just for prospects but they may need to take salary back to get a deal done with Seattle.

I second this. A Polanco for DeSclafani + prospect trade makes so much sense for both teams.

While Polanco is a valuable player, he nor Julien are of any use if they are sitting on the bench. And one of them will be, if we assume Buxton is the DH. While DeSclafani isn't exciting he's a solid veteran pitcher capable of providing a sub-4 ERA when healthy. An argument could be made that a swap of Polanco for DeSclafani alone benefits the Twins in 2024, because they need DeSclafani's projected 0.5 WAR more than they need Polanco's 2.5 WAR.

For the Mariners, they only took on DeSclafani's contract to offset money and they don't really have any use for him. They would much rather pay the same amount to Polanco.

If I were the Twins I would propose a trade of Polanco for DeSclafani + Emerson Hancock + lower level prospect. Who says no?

[cmoss84]

15 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Looking over the rosters as part of this trade sparks ideas for further deals. WAR projections are from Fangraphs.

Twins trade: Jorge Polanco ($10.5M 2.5 WAR); Mariners trade Anthony DeSclafini ($12M 0.5), Luis Urias ($4.7M 2.0) and Walter Ford (RHP, #19 prospect).

Seattle upgrades at 2B and saves $6M. The Twins get a starting pitcher on a short-term market value deal, a good pitching prospect and a utility infielder with two years of team control which allows them to make the next deal.

Twins trade: Kyle Farmer ($6.6M 0.4); Giants trade Heliot Ramos ($0.75 0.1) and Joe Whitman (LHP, #14 prospect)

The Giants need a SS more than any team in baseball and have too many outfielders. The Twins get a backup CF option who crushed AAA in 2023 and the kind of projectable college pitching prospect they love. Plus, they shed the money they added in the Mariners deal. Feel free to rotate in any of the other dozen Giants pitching prospects if you think Whitman is the wrong guy.

This doesn't land the Twins a top of the rotation starter but it adds a couple pitching prospects that could help them swing that deal later. It also finishes out their shopping list for everything else except the top starting pitcher.

Fairly certain Farmer signed back with Reds, but I could be wrong. I see Snell getting something like 6/150. Seattle is a very intriguing trade partner...could see them signing Snell and trading Castillo. Would love it to be us. Would give up Lee, Polanco, and SWR kind of deal...

[harmony55]

On 1/6/2024 at 7:52 AM, tony&rodney said:

Falvey would be nuts to trade Polanco for DeSclafani. He would slot just above Dobnak and earn $12M.

Urias and Rojas had less than ten extra base hits last year. They are not good. Polanco on one leg is far better than either player. How on Earth are people finding ways to reduce the value of Jorge Polanco to such depths. DeSclafani, Urias, and Rojas would not help the Twins in any way.

The Twins and Mariners do not match up unless Dipoto decides to pay dearly. He won't.

FanGraphs projects Jorge Polanco with a 2024 WAR of 2.5 in 141 games (.0177 per game) and Luis Urias with a 2024 WAR of 2.0 in 110 games (.0818 per game).

The 30-year-old Polanco has played 184 games over the past two seasons while the 26-year-old Urias has played 171 games over that period.

FanGraphs projections are down on 29-year-old Josh Rojas but over the past two seasons Polanco has posted 3.3 fWAR in 184 games while Rojas posted 3.8 fWAR in 230 games.

Polanco is guaranteed $11.25 million, including the buyout of the 2025 option, while Urias and Rojas are projected to earn 2024 salaries of $4.7 million and $3.5 million, respectively.

We can agree that the Twins and Mariners don't match up in a trade.

[harmony55]

21 hours ago, Rik19753 said:

I second this. A Polanco for DeSclafani + prospect trade makes so much sense for both teams.

While Polanco is a valuable player, he nor Julien are of any use if they are sitting on the bench. And one of them will be, if we assume Buxton is the DH. While DeSclafani isn't exciting he's a solid veteran pitcher capable of providing a sub-4 ERA when healthy. An argument could be made that a swap of Polanco for DeSclafani alone benefits the Twins in 2024, because they need DeSclafani's projected 0.5 WAR more than they need Polanco's 2.5 WAR.

For the Mariners, they only took on DeSclafani's contract to offset money and they don't really have any use for him. They would much rather pay the same amount to Polanco.

If I were the Twins I would propose a trade of Polanco for DeSclafani + Emerson Hancock + lower level prospect. Who says no?

Seattle says no because the Mariners have a far greater need for Anthony DeSclafani and Emerson Hancock as rotation depth than the M's have for Jorge Polanco with Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty and, perhaps eventually, Ryan Bliss covering second base and third base.

[tony&rodney]

9 minutes ago, harmony55 said:

FanGraphs projects Jorge Polanco with a 2024 WAR of 2.5 in 141 games (.0177 per game) and Luis Urias with a 2024 WAR of 2.0 in 110 games (.0818 per game).

The 30-year-old Polanco has played 184 games over the past two seasons while the 26-year-old Urias has played 171 games over that period.

FanGraphs projections are down on 29-year-old Josh Rojas but over the past two seasons Polanco has posted 3.3 fWAR in 184 games while Rojas posted 3.8 fWAR in 230 games.

Polanco is guaranteed $11.25 million, including the buyout of the 2025 option, while Urias and Rojas are projected to earn 2024 salaries of $4.7 million and $3.5 million, respectively.

We can agree that the Twins and Mariners don't match up in a trade.

Hahaha ... I admire your fandom.

If you can find a single GM in baseball who would pick Urias/Rojas over Polanco, immediately go out and buy a lottery ticket. You can keep the fangraphs and other fun stuff up for months, but Polanco, even if he is no longer an AL All Star Game starting shortstop,  remains a very good player. If we are picking teams, you can have both Urias and Rojas and i will gladly take Jorge. I'm not in favor of the Twins trading Polanco and i hope that Urias doesn't get cut if the Mariners pick up another infielder. 

[harmony55]

On 1/6/2024 at 10:14 AM, nicksaviking said:

This really makes it look the Mariners intend to trade one of their current five starters. What ever combination of vets and prospects the Mariners are looking for, it's hard not to get excited being a Twins fan. Both team’s needs fit great together.

For rotation depth, the Mariners have effectively replaced one year of nine-year MLB veteran Marco Gonzales at $12.25 million for one year of nine-year MLB veteran Anthony DeSclafani at $12 million.

Seattle welcomes that depth.

Circumstances change.

When Seattle signed Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract in November 2021, Luis Castillo was not on the Mariners. Logan Gilbert was coming off a rookie season with an ERA+ of 88 in 24 starts. George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo had never thrown an MLB pitch.

The Mariners now have at least four years of team control over the current rotation of Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller and Woo. The $73 million owed Ray was too expensive as insurance against an almost inevitable attrition in the rotation.

 

[harmony55]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Hahaha ... I admire your fandom.

If you can find a single GM in baseball who would pick Urias/Rojas over Polanco, immediately go out and buy a lottery ticket. You can keep the fangraphs and other fun stuff up for months, but Polanco, even if he is no longer an AL All Star Game starting shortstop,  remains a very good player. If we are picking teams, you can have both Urias and Rojas and i will gladly take Jorge. I'm not in favor of the Twins trading Polanco and i hope that Urias doesn't get cut if the Mariners pick up another infielder. 

After 14 years in the organization, Jorge Polanco deserves his status as a fan favorite.

The best forum posts avoid use of "I" and "you." Make an exception to pay another contributor a compliment.

Eleanor Roosevelt was quoted: "Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, harmony55 said:

After 14 years in the organization, Jorge Polanco deserves his status as a fan favorite.

The best forum posts avoid use of "I" and "you." Make an exception to pay another contributor a compliment.

Eleanor Roosevelt was quoted: "Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."

I'm just an average guy. 

The constant hyping of two utility players as superior to Polanco is weak. Sorry. I don't know why you are so down on Polanco. The odds of Polanco starting on Opening Day are very high, not so for your two fellas. The repeated reference to Polanco as done remind me of the hundreds of comments that called for Julien to be cut, demoted, traded, or just released last summer when he made a number of poor defensive plays.

The post, however, relates to the recent trade between the Giants and the Mariners. Seattle is trimming money from their future payrolls by sending off Ray. This extends an offseason of checking the budget and seems like a good move. They also return a fan favorite and needed outfielder, Haniger, for now. I can see the Mariners looking to move him during the season unless he has a total resurgence, which is also possible. The Giants don't see a use for either player and are taking a gamble on Ray returning for some use in August and hope he regains value in the next two years. It is quite a gamble long term for the Giants but they lose nothing short term. The Mariners get some depth or middle relief now and an outfielder. With the added cash, the Mariners only pay a little more this year but save big in the next two years. The trade served both teams needs.

[mnfireman]

19 hours ago, cmoss84 said:

Fairly certain Farmer signed back with Reds, but I could be wrong. 

Kind of hard to do since he is not a free agent until 2025...

[cmoss84]

2 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Kind of hard to do since he is not a free agent until 2025...

Yup...accidentally mistook him for Buck Farmer.

You should never drink the bong water...