Vikings Offseason Thread

[nicksaviking]

20 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The NFL today dramatically changed kickoffs for 2024 (the current rules will automatically reinstate for 2025 unless this or some other change is made permanent.  The new rules state:

• The kicker will line up at his own 35 yard line
• All other kicking team players will line up at the opponents 40 yard line
• At least 9 receiving team players must be between their own 30 and 35 yard line
• No more than 2 receiving team players can line up anywhere between the goal line and their own 20 yard line
• Only the kicker and the 1 to 2 players in the "landing zone" can move until the kicked ball hits the ground or a player in the "landing zone"
• All onside attempts must be announced in advance, and the current onside rules will then apply
• No fair catches are allowed, and touchbacks are placed at the 30

For me, there are some confusing things here--are receiving team players who line up at the 30 allowed to start moving forward before the ball lands/is caught, so long as they don't cross the 35, or are they required to freeze the moment the ball is struck?  If the ball hits a player on the receiving team who is not in the landing zone, is it an automatic touchback, or is that player allowed to attempt to advance?  If allowed to advance, wouldn't the new tactic to be to kick the ball at one of those players, and try to have one of your guys pop him as hard as possible to try and force a fumble?

Personally, I think a much better way to do this would be to eliminate the kickoff entirely, and instead state that after a team scores (or to start a half/overtime) the kicking team gets a 4th and 15 from their own 35 yard line.  They can attempt to  run a straight play to pick up the 15 yards, they can go ahead and punt (a 40 yard net would give the other team the ball at their own 25), or they can run a fake punt.  This achieves the aim of eliminating the kickoff (thereby reducing injuries), but leaves in place a stronger mechanism for keeping the ball after a score.

Sounds like a lot of fun to me, but I like new things and I'm not opposed to switching things up if they aren't working.

I also think this might not eliminate the surprise 'onside' kick aspect as much as the league thinks. The receiving team will have a 10 yard head start, but if the kicker can put the ball in a spot where it has to bounce first, there will be some mad scrambles for the ball. I think this could be a lot of fun.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree with those that think the team should get a 4th and 15 play, instead of a kickoff.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

I agree with those that think the team should get a 4th and 15 play, instead of a kickoff.

I know that's what Florio has been pushing, but I actually don't like that one. Teams with the best QBs would be at a significant advantage. That's probably like what, a 30-40% chance for success for KC but a 10% chance for Pittsburgh? I just think there's too much disparity in the play as the team with the best QB already has a built in advantage, than this would just compound that. Teams that build their offenses to be run heavy and control the clock would get screwed. Not that I want those kinds of offenses, but I don't want them to go extinct either since there aren't enough good QBs to go around as it is.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I know that's what Florio has been pushing, but I actually don't like that one. Teams with the best QBs would be at a significant advantage. That's probably like what, a 30-40% chance for success for KC but a 10% chance for Pittsburgh? I just think there's too much disparity in the play as the team with the best QB already has a built in advantage, than this would just compound that. Teams that build their offenses to be run heavy and control the clock would get screwed. Not that I want those kinds of offenses, but I don't want them to go extinct either since there aren't enough good QBs to go around as it is.

My second option is just have them punt from their own 25.....or something. I just hate the kickoff right now, and I'm not sure this fixes anything.

[Musk21]

For those of you who have access to The Athletic, they have some good graphics and videos of what the new kickoff rule will look like. I kinda like it...Touchbacks 90% of the time have rendered kickoffs as so boring. And this should help curb injuries that occurred on traditional kickoffs.

https://theathletic.com/5366260/2024/03/26/nfl-hybrid-kickoff-rules/

[Cap'n Piranha]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I know that's what Florio has been pushing, but I actually don't like that one. Teams with the best QBs would be at a significant advantage. That's probably like what, a 30-40% chance for success for KC but a 10% chance for Pittsburgh? I just think there's too much disparity in the play as the team with the best QB already has a built in advantage, than this would just compound that. Teams that build their offenses to be run heavy and control the clock would get screwed. Not that I want those kinds of offenses, but I don't want them to go extinct either since there aren't enough good QBs to go around as it is.

Teams with the best QBs are likely to be winning already, and would have the least need to risk giving the other team the ball in plus territory.  Even with Mahomes, there's no way it's 30%-40% to pick up a 4th and 15.  If that's the case, why would KC ever punt?  That high of a chance to retain possession far outweighs giving the opponent 35-40 yards for their possession.

[nicksaviking]

31 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Teams with the best QBs are likely to be winning already, and would have the least need to risk giving the other team the ball in plus territory.  Even with Mahomes, there's no way it's 30%-40% to pick up a 4th and 15.  If that's the case, why would KC ever punt?  That high of a chance to retain possession far outweighs giving the opponent 35-40 yards for their possession.

Whatever the percentages are, they're going to be significantly higher for the better QBs. And yeah, if that was the new onside kick, I could see KC doing it even in situations you normally wouldn't expect. The bad QB teams would be getting the short end of that deal by a significant margin.

[nicksaviking]

On 3/18/2024 at 12:47 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Penix has one of the lowest percentages of sacked/pressured rates in years. He was pressured an insane amount of times in his last two years......just sayin'. 

 

Penix still isn't my guy, but he did run a 4.53 40 in his pro day. Obviously that's not elite, but it's still really good. Better than Nix, an waaaaay better than Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert. Guys like Teddy Bridgewater, Baker Mayfield and Tua Tagovailoa can also move, but refuse to, but there's a difference between being a statue in the pocket by choice or by ability. If he's open to picking up some 1st downs with his legs when the need arises, I'm open to him being on the Vikings.

[Vanimal46]

My preferred draft outcomes (QB focus) less than a month away. Ranked from most to least preferred…

1. Trade up to #2-4 overall for Maye or Daniels. It’s going to cost a premium and I’m okay with it. #11, 23, 2025 1st + a player like Bynum or Metellus is as high as I’d go. 

2. Trade up to #5-8 overall for McCarthy or another QB that’s falling. That probably costs both 1st round picks and I’m cool with that. 

3. Stick at 11 overall and take the best DT/EDGE on the board. #23 trade down to accumulate more top 100 picks. Take someone like Spencer Rattler in the 2nd or 3rd round. 

4. Defense at 11 and Michael Penix at 23. 

5. Staying at 11 and 23 and selecting 2 non-QBs. 

6. Taking Nix or Penix at 11 and non-QB at 23. This is the one outcome that feels like a Ponder type reach. I wouldn’t be happy with this result. 

[Mike Sixel]

45 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

My preferred draft outcomes (QB focus) less than a month away. Ranked from most to least preferred…

1. Trade up to #2-4 overall for Maye or Daniels. It’s going to cost a premium and I’m okay with it. #11, 23, 2025 1st + a player like Bynum or Metellus is as high as I’d go. 

2. Trade up to #5-8 overall for McCarthy or another QB that’s falling. That probably costs both 1st round picks and I’m cool with that. 

3. Stick at 11 overall and take the best DT/EDGE on the board. #23 trade down to accumulate more top 100 picks. Take someone like Spencer Rattler in the 2nd or 3rd round. 

4. Defense at 11 and Michael Penix at 23. 

5. Staying at 11 and 23 and selecting 2 non-QBs. 

6. Taking Nix or Penix at 11 and non-QB at 23. This is the one outcome that feels like a Ponder type reach. I wouldn’t be happy with this result. 

going from 3 on.....

3. Trade 11 for another 2nd or 3rd. Draft Powers-Johnson at 23 and a CB or DT/edge with the other pick. Draft OL/DB/DL with all other picks. Maybe a RB. Deal Bradbury for 3rd/4th in 2024. Use all of your picks in 2024 to take QB. Literally all of them

4. Trade 11 to the low 20s, draft Penix and Powers-Johnson. Deal Bradbury. 

5. Stick at 11 and take DT, draft Penix or Powers-Johnson at 23. Use all of your picks in 2024 to take QB. Literally all of them if you don't take Penix.

I think if they can't deal up, the deal down a bit, take Penix or Nix, and then OL or DT (illinois guy?).

[nicksaviking]

I have no read on this front office, but if they don't already have a wink-wink deal in place to trade up, after trading for another 1st round pick two months prior to the draft, it just seems like they don't actually have a game plan. Just such a bizarre move at that point in the off season otherwise. No team does that.

Pick #23 is usually a trade DOWN spot. Makes no sense unless they already know it can be packaged. But while I've liked the free agency period this year, there's already been a bunch of 'makes no sense' moves from this group so as much as I want to, I guess I can't assume they already have a deal in place. But I think they do. 

[gunnarthor]

On 3/29/2024 at 4:30 PM, Vanimal46 said:

My preferred draft outcomes (QB focus) less than a month away. Ranked from most to least preferred…

1. Trade up to #2-4 overall for Maye or Daniels. It’s going to cost a premium and I’m okay with it. #11, 23, 2025 1st + a player like Bynum or Metellus is as high as I’d go. 

2. Trade up to #5-8 overall for McCarthy or another QB that’s falling. That probably costs both 1st round picks and I’m cool with that. 

3. Stick at 11 overall and take the best DT/EDGE on the board. #23 trade down to accumulate more top 100 picks. Take someone like Spencer Rattler in the 2nd or 3rd round. 

4. Defense at 11 and Michael Penix at 23. 

5. Staying at 11 and 23 and selecting 2 non-QBs. 

6. Taking Nix or Penix at 11 and non-QB at 23. This is the one outcome that feels like a Ponder type reach. I wouldn’t be happy with this result. 

I think the Vikings will trade up and grab either Maye or McCarthy. That's probably the most likley based on the rumors I've read. And I really don't think they got the 23rd pick without a trade up in mind but it is possible that NE overplays their hand and a trade doesn't happen there. (I'm convinced Williams and Daniels go 1-2).

What I'd like to see is the Vikings stay put at 11 and have McCarthy drop to them but I don't think that's likely. That said, occasionally QBs drop, so here's hoping.

[Mike Sixel]

10 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I think the Vikings will trade up and grab either Maye or McCarthy. That's probably the most likley based on the rumors I've read. And I really don't think they got the 23rd pick without a trade up in mind but it is possible that NE overplays their hand and a trade doesn't happen there. (I'm convinced Williams and Daniels go 1-2).

What I'd like to see is the Vikings stay put at 11 and have McCarthy drop to them but I don't think that's likely. That said, occasionally QBs drop, so here's hoping.

That's obviously the best case, but I don't think they risk it and trade up. 

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

I think the Vikings will trade up and grab either Maye or McCarthy. That's probably the most likley based on the rumors I've read. And I really don't think they got the 23rd pick without a trade up in mind but it is possible that NE overplays their hand and a trade doesn't happen there. (I'm convinced Williams and Daniels go 1-2).

What I'd like to see is the Vikings stay put at 11 and have McCarthy drop to them but I don't think that's likely. That said, occasionally QBs drop, so here's hoping.

I've been hearing more and more thoughts that Maye will drop and McCarthy will go ahead of him. 

Paul Allen seems to think the Vikings already have a deal in place. As annoying as he is, he tends to be in the know. If they do have a deal in place, maybe the only thing the Vikings are waiting on is to make sure Washington picks Daniels instead of the guy they want.

[nicksaviking]

Now Drake Maye is the favorite to go #2 per PFT (no citation):

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/betting-odds-shift-toward-drake-maye-over-jayden-daniels-as-favorite-for-no-2-pick

PFT logically assumes this means the oddsmakers have intel that Washington now wants Maye instead of Daniels. Which is the likely case, unless instead they have intel that the Vikings, or another Maye-leaning team is planning to move to #2.

[Danchat]

Stefon Diggs traded to Houston for a future 2nd rounder... the Bills wanted him gone so bad they took a big cap hit to do so. How long until Diggs wears out his welcome in Houston?

[gunnarthor]

2 hours ago, Danchat said:

Stefon Diggs traded to Houston for a future 2nd rounder... the Bills wanted him gone so bad they took a big cap hit to do so. How long until Diggs wears out his welcome in Houston?

I like that trade for Houston. Really gives them some weapons for their stud QB. Best of luck to Diggs. 

[nicksaviking]

8 hours ago, Danchat said:

Stefon Diggs traded to Houston for a future 2nd rounder... the Bills wanted him gone so bad they took a big cap hit to do so. How long until Diggs wears out his welcome in Houston?

He looked pretty well done up the second half of last year. He's probably Houston's 3rd best receiver now. I'm guessing he'll be complaining by week 6. But he's close to the end of the line anyway. He'll be gone from Houston next year and might bounce around for a year or two like Julio Jones or ODB, but no one will listen if he's not worth the hassle.

[Parfigliano]

20 hours ago, Danchat said:

Stefon Diggs traded to Houston for a future 2nd rounder... the Bills wanted him gone so bad they took a big cap hit to do so. How long until Diggs wears out his welcome in Houston?

He doesnt seem to get a long for long with teammates.

[Mike Sixel]

We are in upstate NY visiting close friends and seeing the eclipse. They are not exactly bummed Diggs is gone ...

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

We are in upstate NY visiting close friends and seeing the eclipse. They are not exactly bummed Diggs is gone ...

I kind of thought he got over-villainized here in Minnesota, I mean he was right, the Vikings weren't utilizing him efficiently, but football teams, coaches and fans don't like any indication that a player is thinking of himself. And to be fair to the teams and coaches (screw most of us fans), a cohesive unit is almost a requirement for winning games.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree, I never thought he was over the top in Minnesota....

[Parfigliano]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I agree, I never thought he was over the top in Minnesota....

Apparently management for two teams did

[gunnarthor]

19 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Apparently management for two teams did

Or, two other teams valued him more.

[Danchat]

On 4/4/2024 at 1:31 PM, nicksaviking said:

I kind of thought he got over-villainized here in Minnesota,

Right, we have a tendency to do that, but then he got placed in an organization with a top 5 QB and a pass-first offense where he produced. And yet he still hasn't been happy the past couple years there despite being on a perennial playoff contender.

[Parfigliano]

30 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Right, we have a tendency to do that, but then he got placed in an organization with a top 5 QB and a pass-first offense where he produced. And yet he still hasn't been happy the past couple years there despite being on a perennial playoff contender.

He's a problem child

[Cap'n Piranha]

It's an interesting move by Houston, and one I don't quite understand.  From what I read, Houston has already stated they are going to let Diggs test FA after this year, so they essentially gave up a second rounder in next year's draft for one year of Diggs.  For a team that only has a couple more cheap years of Stroud left, I would think the priority would be building up the organizational depth, not acquiring a guy who probably won't be on the team at this time next year.

Especially given the depth of receivers in this draft class, Houston would probably be better served to use their extra second in 2025 to move back into the first this year, or to have just not done the trade with the Vikes at all.  In essence, Houston moved back 19 spots in this year's draft (from 23 to 42) in order to get 1 year of Diggs.  If he is rejuvenated and on his best behavior, that might be a win.  If he's cooked, and upset that he's the 4th or 5th option on offense, this might be a massive mistake.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I just read the Dane Brugler “Beast” draft guide write ups on Maye, Daniels, Penix and Nix.

If the Vikings can trade up for Daniels, they should.

[nicksaviking]

I'd like Daniels, but not sure if KOC would put his legs to as much use as they should. Still, he looks like a good enough passer that he'd still work in the offense.

I'm seeing tons of reports that Maye is below McCarthy on lots of evaluators lists. Some people have him below Penix and Nix. I still think the Vikings have a deal in place, it's the only thing that makes sense with them trading for that extra 1st round pick so early, but it's really hard to get a read on who they really want.

[gunnarthor]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'd like Daniels, but not sure if KOC would put his legs to as much use as they should. Still, he looks like a good enough passer that he'd still work in the offense.

I'm seeing tons of reports that Maye is below McCarthy on lots of evaluators lists. Some people have him below Penix and Nix. I still think the Vikings have a deal in place, it's the only thing that makes sense with them trading for that extra 1st round pick so early, but it's really hard to get a read on who they really want.

Reports are saying the Vikings didn't initiate the trade with the Texans so maybe there isn't a deal in place. Mel Kiper's latest mock has us trading three first round picks to the Chargers (#5 overall) which, I think, is way too much. And reports out of NE also suggest 3 firsts is the starting point of negotiations. I'm sure a lot of this is bluster but I'm starting to think it's more likely that they stay pat and pick a QB at either 11 or 23 rather than trade up. The Texas DL at 11 and Nix at 23 might happen. Or, if the Giants pass, one of Maye/McCarthy could drop to 11 (or a team at 8-10 might be more willing to drop a few spots if that starts happening).