Vikings Offseason Thread

[nicksaviking]

31 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Reports are saying the Vikings didn't initiate the trade with the Texans so maybe there isn't a deal in place. Mel Kiper's latest mock has us trading three first round picks to the Chargers (#5 overall) which, I think, is way too much. And reports out of NE also suggest 3 firsts is the starting point of negotiations. I'm sure a lot of this is bluster but I'm starting to think it's more likely that they stay pat and pick a QB at either 11 or 23 rather than trade up. The Texas DL at 11 and Nix at 23 might happen. Or, if the Giants pass, one of Maye/McCarthy could drop to 11 (or a team at 8-10 might be more willing to drop a few spots if that starts happening). 

Yeah, they could, but if they wait until 23, it's possible they could miss out on all six QBs. If five are off the board by the time the Broncos and Raiders have picked at 12 and 13 so there's only one left with ten picks to go before the Vikings draft, they'll probably end up having to trade trade up anyway or risk getting none of them. And then they don't get to choose their QB, they get what the other teams stick them with.

I don't want them to be like the Twins in free agency. Don't get cute trying to keep as much equity as possible and just accepting what's left available, get the guy you really want.

[nicksaviking]

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/kwesi-adofo-mensah-there-are-multiple-qbs-were-in-love-with-in-this-draft

Crap, here we go:

“So, as I talked about earlier, skill-set-wise, if you’re talking about the ability to overcome context — well, if the guy has less ability but we have assets to go get somebody who is not going to put him in that situation, those things add up, too."

No, this is the one position you can't take the lesser talent to gamble on talent in other areas. You HAVE to get one of the guys you think can be amongst the best at the position. Getting an upgrade at DT or LB or whatever is NOT going to make up for having an average QB. Does he understand how good a defensive tackle has to be to drag a team to the Super Bowl? It seriously has to be like Aaron Donald. Who still had a HOF QB.

[Original_JB]

I know this won't be popular, but I really think they should be working on a draft day trade of Justin Jefferson. The Vikes have gotten too old and expensive for the talent level on the team; too expensive to get good 'buying' FAs to improve. They really don't have the cap space with the talent they have on hand, to be paying JJ top of the league WR money --- even if he deserves to be paid that way. They didn't get the extension figured out last year.... If Darnold is only OK, and whoever they draft isn't the savior, what then? The likelihood of any of those top 6 QBs being a franchise guy is actually pretty slim. If JJ is as wanted and liked around the league as much as he appears to be, wouldn't a trade for an extra 1st rounder and and couple of 2nds (or whatever the pundits say is 'fair') of young, high talent, 'low cost for a few years' type players be overall, more help to this club? 

[nicksaviking]

I disagree about JJ. The payroll shouldn't be a problem for the foreseeable future. Most of the bad contracts are gone and they'll be done paying for those sins after this year. Of all the free agents they signed this year, only Greenard has more than a minimal future burden. The ledger is about as clean as it's going to get. Getting a stud young QB and paying him rookie wages for four or five years will really open things up.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Original_JB said:

I know this won't be popular, but I really think they should be working on a draft day trade of Justin Jefferson. The Vikes have gotten too old and expensive for the talent level on the team; too expensive to get good 'buying' FAs to improve. They really don't have the cap space with the talent they have on hand, to be paying JJ top of the league WR money --- even if he deserves to be paid that way. They didn't get the extension figured out last year.... If Darnold is only OK, and whoever they draft isn't the savior, what then? The likelihood of any of those top 6 QBs being a franchise guy is actually pretty slim. If JJ is as wanted and liked around the league as much as he appears to be, wouldn't a trade for an extra 1st rounder and and couple of 2nds (or whatever the pundits say is 'fair') of young, high talent, 'low cost for a few years' type players be overall, more help to this club? 

They have almost infinite cap space next year. That's not an issue going forward for some time. Now, JJ might not want to be in Minnesota, that could be an issue. But he's locked in for at least three years if they franchise him....

[Original_JB]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I disagree about JJ. The payroll shouldn't be a problem for the foreseeable future. Most of the bad contracts are gone and they'll be done paying for those sins after this year. Of all the free agents they signed this year, only Greenard has more than a minimal future burden. The ledger is about as clean as it's going to get. Getting a stud young QB and paying him rookie wages for four or five years will really open things up.

Now remember, if we do the "guessed at" QB thing, that will eat this year's 2 and likely next year's 1st round draft picks. We already have no 2nd rounder this year. We need a center, another OL, pretty much the entire secondary, and DL help. Yes, you can be very, very good at lower round drafts picks and FA's (which we know KAM is so good at), but the top talent is in the top rounds.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Original_JB said:

Now remember, if we do the "guessed at" QB thing, that will eat this year's 2 and likely next year's 1st round draft picks. We already have no 2nd rounder this year. We need a center, another OL, pretty much the entire secondary, and DL help. Yes, you can be very, very good at lower round drafts picks and FA's (which we know KAM is so good at), but the top talent is in the top rounds.

Those are two different points .. Needing lots of help, and the salary cap...

[nicksaviking]

6 hours ago, Original_JB said:

Now remember, if we do the "guessed at" QB thing, that will eat this year's 2 and likely next year's 1st round draft picks. We already have no 2nd rounder this year. We need a center, another OL, pretty much the entire secondary, and DL help. Yes, you can be very, very good at lower round drafts picks and FA's (which we know KAM is so good at), but the top talent is in the top rounds.

So trade JJ for a top draft pick because they're more reliable than late picks? Those are no less guesses than guessing at QB. And on top of that JJ isn't a guess, he is pretty much the biggest sure thing in the entire league.

Trading JJ for a guess at C or DL and then you have to find another WR too. That doesn't come close to adding up for me.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

So trade JJ for a top draft pick because they're more reliable than late picks? Those are no less guesses than guessing at QB. And on top of that JJ isn't a guess, he is pretty much the biggest sure thing in the entire league.

Trading JJ for a guess at C or DL and then you have to find another WR too. That doesn't come close to adding up for me.

JJ for number four and their second? 

[gunnarthor]

18 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/kwesi-adofo-mensah-there-are-multiple-qbs-were-in-love-with-in-this-draft

Crap, here we go:

“So, as I talked about earlier, skill-set-wise, if you’re talking about the ability to overcome context — well, if the guy has less ability but we have assets to go get somebody who is not going to put him in that situation, those things add up, too."

No, this is the one position you can't take the lesser talent to gamble on talent in other areas. You HAVE to get one of the guys you think can be amongst the best at the position. Getting an upgrade at DT or LB or whatever is NOT going to make up for having an average QB. Does he understand how good a defensive tackle has to be to drag a team to the Super Bowl? It seriously has to be like Aaron Donald. Who still had a HOF QB.

I would guess this is just bluster. We're seeing insanity quotes out of NE about the value of #3, here the Vikes are like, "hey, we can make do with whatever falls to us at 11 or 23". 

But the quote itself isn't that bad - there are hardly any perfect QBs. So, as I read it, he's just saying, we don't need a mobile QB (for instance) b/c we have great WR/TE that get open quick in our scheme. Or, we don't need a QB to make 3 reads, our system let's him go 1, 2, bail. etc. 

But the one thing I'm completely sure of is that the Vikings are not unaware of the importance of the QB. Fans, on the other hand, can't figure out who elite QBs are, week-to-week. 

[nicksaviking]

So many new rumors/theories going around about the Vikings draft. I've seen several new sites suggesting Justin Herbert might not be a completely bonkers idea. The Chargers would have to eat a lot of money, but with a new HC and GM, they'd be able to pass that off as part of a rebuild and the sins of the former regime. Still think it's unlikely, but Harbaugh is a wild card and he likes to do what he wants, critics be damned.

I've also seen reports that the Vikings want to stay at 23. That doesn't seem to make sense on the surface if they want to trade up for a QB, but it got me thinking about how all the theories center around the Vikings trading up using a bunch of 1st round picks. Honestly though, as much as we fans love to play around with picks, AZ, LAC and NE would probably love to get #11 and Jordan Addison more than a late 1st rounder. Those teams are desperate for receivers. The Panthers made their move last year by including DJ Moore, and while he's currently a better WR, Addison has many more years of control and productivity. Pick 23 would be a prime spot for the Vikings to grab another young WR if that's a position they feel best about evaluating. And after two years, it's really the only position I feel at all comfortable about them evaluating.

On the same train of thought, the Vikings brought in FIVE LBs in free agency. Many formations they'll only be putting two or three on the field at a time. Rarely will they have four out there as evidenced by the fact that the Vikings had three safeties on the field 94% of the time last year, probably will only do that for formations if/when Greenard is slotted into a DE spot. Ivan Pace has to have pretty decent trade value but I don't see him on the field nearly as much next year. I wonder if he could be a player that's substituted for a pick. Wouldn't be valued as a 1st obviously, but could be the compromise between a 1st and whatever pick the Vikings are more comfortable including.

[Vanimal46]

Obviously I have no inside speculation but I’m pretty confident that we’re trading up for Drake Maye. 

[nicksaviking]

11 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Obviously I have no inside speculation but I’m pretty confident that we’re trading up for Drake Maye. 

Oddsmakers say McCarthy, but I agree with you. If there's a wink wink deal in place, it seems most likely to be with New England.

[gunnarthor]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Oddsmakers say McCarthy, but I agree with you. If there's a wink wink deal in place, it seems most likely to be with New England.

I dunno. NE has really pushed the value of #3 a lot in public. Suggesting it would take a lot of first round picks (which I read to mean more than 2) and/or wanting a young player on a rookie contract (Addison). If they have a deal in place for our 2 firsts and a third next year (which lines up with the trade value charts) their fans might be pretty disappointed. 

My feeling is we don't trade into the top 3 and, while I think we do make a trade to move up (SD or NY?) I'm not as confident. I wouldn't be surprised if they held the pick and went defense at 11 and Nix/Penix at 23. 

[nicksaviking]

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/drake-maye-is-off-the-board-for-team-specific-bets-at-draftkings

This is interesting, the bets associated with Drake Maye on Draft Kings have greatly been eliminated. You no longer can bet on Maye to got a specific team, though this article suggests you can do so with the other QBs. PFT also says this:

DraftKings has taken Maye off the board for any team-specific picks. He’s still an option for wagers tied to draft position — No. 2, No. 3, and No. 5, most notably.

So why can you no longer bet on Maye to go No. 4? Does that suggest that whatever inside info Draft Kings has indicates their belief that AZ at No. 4 is planning on trading the pick and that's where Maye is expected to go? I'm not a great sportsbook mind but this all seems a bit peculiar.

[yeahyabetcha]

On 4/15/2024 at 9:07 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Obviously I have no inside speculation but I’m pretty confident that we’re trading up for Drake Maye. 

What if Maye goes at pick 2?

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

What if Maye goes at pick 2?

Then they trade up for Daniels? Or McCarthy? I don't think they are dealing with NE, but I could be wrong, so I think it is McCarthy.

[yeahyabetcha]

8 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Then they trade up for Daniels? Or McCarthy? I don't think they are dealing with NE, but I could be wrong, so I think it is McCarthy.

What if the Qb they really want out of this draft is Penix or Rattler?

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

What if the Qb they really want out of this draft is Penix or Rattler?

Then they aren't trading up and better be right. But then they better be right if they trade up too. 

[yeahyabetcha]

12 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Then they aren't trading up and better be right. But then they better be right if they trade up too. 

I agree.  Hopefully they make better decisions than then they did the last two drafts.  It is really hard to predict much with all the smoke screens all the teams throw out there.  

[Parfigliano]

53 minutes ago, yeahyabetcha said:

I agree.  Hopefully they make better decisions than then they did the last two drafts.  It is really hard to predict much with all the smoke screens all the teams throw out there.  

I have zero faith that Kwesi got competent at his job over the last year.

[Danchat]

On 4/14/2024 at 6:45 PM, nicksaviking said:

On the same train of thought, the Vikings brought in FIVE LBs in free agency. Many formations they'll only be putting two or three on the field at a time. Rarely will they have four out there as evidenced by the fact that the Vikings had three safeties on the field 94% of the time last year, probably will only do that for formations if/when Greenard is slotted into a DE spot. Ivan Pace has to have pretty decent trade value but I don't see him on the field nearly as much next year. I wonder if he could be a player that's substituted for a pick.

I think you're mixing up ILBs and OLBs, which are two very different positions in 3-4 defenses. OLBs or what I prefer to call them "edge defenders" which are Greenard, Van Ginkel, and Ward (Hunter, Davenport, Wonnum, Jones II last year). The first two will likely be every-down players with Ward rotating in, with Jones II and Andre Carter competing with him and any rookies (I would like another 4th/5th edge).

At ILB, Flores tends to play two at a time but does situationally have only one out there as they opt to go with a safety or a third edge defender (Wonnum/Jones II last year). Cashman is likely stepping into Hicks' role as the every down ILB and Pace Jr. will continue his role as a weapon to be used 20-90% of the snaps depending on what the gameplan is. There were games where Flores only had him out there 10-15 snaps, and some he played nearly every down. The 5th LB you mention was Grugier-Hill, who should strictly only be a special teamer while Asamoah will compete with him. Flores showed zero faith in Asamoah last year so I expect we will not see any 3 ILB formations, just like last year.

So I don't see Pace Jr. being a trade piece, as there isn't anybody behind him that Flores would trust to fill his role. And with how well Ivan played last year, they'd be foolish to as I don't think they'd fetch much as teams don't often trade ILBs. My question is will Metellus continue to play an every down role as a 3rd safety? Flores did mention that they want to scale back Harry's snaps so it is possible Metellus begins to take over at SS when Smith is not on the field. Not to mention will Flores trust his CB corps to field 3 CBs in the nickel? Last year Metellus was the primary nickel CB and they only fielded 3 CBs [by name] in dime formations.

[yeahyabetcha]

8 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I have zero faith that Kwesi got competent at his job over the last year.

I have a little more than zero faith, but trading 4 1st round picks away for the third pick to draft whichever Qb is tops on the board would not be what I would choose to do.  

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, Danchat said:

I think you're mixing up ILBs and OLBs, which are two very different positions in 3-4 defenses. OLBs or what I prefer to call them "edge defenders" which are Greenard, Van Ginkel, and Ward (Hunter, Davenport, Wonnum, Jones II last year). The first two will likely be every-down players with Ward rotating in, with Jones II and Andre Carter competing with him and any rookies (I would like another 4th/5th edge).

At ILB, Flores tends to play two at a time but does situationally have only one out there as they opt to go with a safety or a third edge defender (Wonnum/Jones II last year). Cashman is likely stepping into Hicks' role as the every down ILB and Pace Jr. will continue his role as a weapon to be used 20-90% of the snaps depending on what the gameplan is. There were games where Flores only had him out there 10-15 snaps, and some he played nearly every down. The 5th LB you mention was Grugier-Hill, who should strictly only be a special teamer while Asamoah will compete with him. Flores showed zero faith in Asamoah last year so I expect we will not see any 3 ILB formations, just like last year.

I'm not mixing up ILB and edge guys, Flores is is mixing them up, regularly. As the RILB last year Pace was only on the field for 62% of the defensive snaps and it wasn't because Asamoah was getting on the field for those other 38%, Pace was rotated off for Wonnum and Patrick Jones as barely half the Vikings sets featured two MILBs. Now it will be Jones and Van Ginkle and Ward rotating in when the team runs out only one of the classic interior LBs, and Grugier-Hill has been added as another interior guy. I don't see Pace's usage going up.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Jordan Reid has a new mock out on ESPN (behind the pay wall, but linked below).  In it he has the Vikes trading 108 and 129 (early and late 4th rounders) along with 11 to the Falcons for 8, and taking McCarthy.  He then has the Vikings moving back from 23 to 27, picking up 90 (a late third) and taking Newton, the DT from IL.

Leaving aside the fact that I doubt 2 4th rounders will be enough to get to 8 (someone will be willing to offer ATL more than that, and since we don't have a 2nd or 3rd this year, and no 2nd next year it won't be hard to do that), and this assumes the Giants don't just decide to take McCarthy at 6...

I'd be reasonably happy with that performance.  I'm very wary of McCarthy as a guy who never had to put Michigan on his shoulders and carry them to a win.  There's another guy from Michigan who had middling stats there, and did ok in his NFL career, so maybe McCarthy can do it, just never had to.  I do really like the idea of Newton as an interior disruptor, which could really unlock some things.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39983768/2024-nfl-mock-draft-jordan-reid-seven-rounds-257-picks-predictions-final

[Vanimal46]

Reckless speculation 2 days before the draft…

Still think trading to #3 overall for Drake Maye is the preferred path Kwesi and KOC want to take. But all it takes is NE saying nah we want to take him ourselves. 

McCarthy I think is plan B. I don’t think we gotta go all the way to 5 to get him. Perhaps a small trade up to 7 or 8 overall. 

I think we will see a record number of offensive players taken in the 1st round - more than 20 out of 32 on offense. 

Tee Higgins will get traded on Thursday. My wild thought is Carolina trades #33 overall for him. 

Wherever we end up drafting, our first two picks will be QB and DT in that order. 

[Mike Sixel]

Did they trade for a QB yet? :) just start already. Oh, wait, still another day to go.....

[cHawk]

The Vikings will play the Jets in London in Week 5.

 

[cHawk]

Week 1: at Giants
Week 2: vs. 49ers
Week 3: vs. Texans
Week 4: at Packers
Week 5: vs. Jets (in London)
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: vs. Lions
Week 8: at Rams (TNF)
Week 9: vs. Colts
Week 10: at Jaguars
Week 11: at Titans
Week 12: at Bears
Week 13: vs. Cardinals
Week 14: vs. Falcons
Week 15: vs. Bears
Week 16: at Seahawks
Week 17: vs. Packers
Week 18: at Lions

Based on the information sourced from CBS Sports, the Vikings will be in primetime once and overseas once. Cousins will make his return to Minnesota in Week 14, and Diggs will make his in Week 3.

[Aggies7]

Those first ten games are brutal. Vikings could be 2-8.