The Twins Should Not Trade Max Kepler

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, MMMordabito said:

97% (a stretch in reality) of TD readers is very small percentage of Twins fans.

If the number is true... I'm a proud 3 percenter!

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I just, imagine writing this article any time from like 2020 through about June of 2023. 
I know he was great the 2nd half of 2023, but I’m almost in the camp of, be grateful he was good so he actually has trade value now. 97% of us wanted him dfa’d mid season, so that he has value now isn’t a bad thing

I was part of the 3% that bucked the 97%  to say keep him because his trade value was so low & with the shift ban I expected he'd start hitting, it took longer than I expected but he came back stronger than I expected. I'm a big fan of Kepler & he could rack up more WAR this coming season than last but his trade value is at a good place. So if ever we decide to trade Kepler this is the time.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

97% (a stretch in reality) of TD readers is very small percentage of Twins fans.

My dad and one of my cousins (the family I talk to the most about the Twins) also wanted him dfa'd. So it was 100% of the people I speak to in real life generally :)

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

What do people think are the chances Kepler justifies a QO after the 2024 season?  I put it at about 20%. That, of course, would generate a comp pick like the Twins will receive for Gray's signing.

If he hits like he did that back end of 2023, he certainly will justify the QO.

I don't see anyone to easily replace him on the current roster.  I agree with comments above that we have more infield depth than OF depth, and that Polanco (with an extra year of team control, too), would appear to be the more logical trade assett.

As it stands I think Kepler is right on the cusp of a QO.  For comparisons sake Candelario got 3 years $45 mil and on a 1 year deal would have been closer to $20 mil.   Its a coin flip as it stands regarding the QO.  Then it comes down to what do you expect Kepler to do next year at the plate.  Did something fundamentally change at the end of last year compared to the previous seasons - even still he has been a 2 WAR player each of the last 3 seasons.  

I think Max became more aggressive to at the end of the season evidenced by his increasing swing percentage particularly early in the count.  He was taking good aggressive swings on pitches he could handle, rather than making weak contact with 2 strikes.  I think we will see some give and take this year with Kepler but I anticipate a better overall season than last year (he doesn't have to be as good as he was at the end of the season,  just avoid the extremely slow start). 

So do the Twins trade him.  This all comes down to value just like last year.  I think the Twins hold on to him unless blown away with a trade deal.  I think they are more willing to cut a deal on Polanco, but we can wait and see on that.  If Kepler has a good season the Twins benefit from the good season and a QO compensation.   If not you had a viable outfielder while we begin to try to reconfigure what the future outfield will be.   We will see what happens.  

[Hunter McCall]

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

As it stands I think Kepler is right on the cusp of a QO.  For comparisons sake Cendelario got 3 years $45 mil and on a 1 year deal would have been closer to $20 mil.   Its a coin flip as it stands regarding the QO.  Then it comes down to what do you expect Kepler to do next year at the plate.  Did something fundamentally change at the end of last year compared to the previous seasons - even still he has been a 2 WAR player each of the last 3 seasons.  

I think Max became more aggressive to at the end of the season evidenced by his increasing swing percentage particularly early in the count.  He was taking good aggressive swings on pitches he could handle, rather than making weak contact with 2 strikes.  I think we will see some give and take this year with Kepler but I anticipate a better overall season than last year (he doesn't have to be as good as he was at the end of the season,  just avoid the extremely slow start). 

So do the Twins trade him.  This all comes down to value just like last year.  I think the Twins hold on to him unless blown away with a trade deal.  I think they are more willing to cut a deal on Polanco, but we can wait and see on that.  If Kepler has a good season the Twins benefit from the good season and a QO compensation.   If not you had a viable outfielder while we begin to try to reconfigure what the future outfield will be.   We will see what happens.  

I'm in the same boat. I think his adjustments could cause sustained success. Worst case scenario they have an above average outfielder for another season on a relatively cheap deal.

[Hunter McCall]

2 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I disagree as he would not be able to provide a QO pick for the acquiring team if they acquire him at the deadline.  The acquiring team also would only get 1/2 of a season of his services instead of a full season.  That he could regress from his second half performance also factors in.  He is definitely worth more at this time than at the deadline.

Worth more, yes. Worth it? I don't think so unless the price is good enough to make the Twins better right now which will only happen if they include him in a package deal.

[FilthyMogwai]

My concern with losing Kepler is who would replace him. There's not a lot available in FA in the Twins' supposed price range that can give them Kepler's level of production.

They only won 87 games last year, and now are apparently cutting payroll so I expect unless the front office gets really creative, they'll already be downgrading some at SP. 

Yes, others can improve but not sure how many areas they can slide back in and expect to be a legit contender next year.

 

[Hunter McCall]

2 minutes ago, FilthyMogwai said:

My concern with losing Kepler is who would replace him. There's not a lot available in FA in the Twins' supposed price range that can give them Kepler's level of production.

They only won 87 games last year, and now are apparently cutting payroll so I expect unless the front office gets really creative, they'll already be downgrading some at SP. 

Yes, others can improve but not sure how many areas they can slide back in and expect to be a legit contender next year.

 

Exactly my point, thanks for sharing!

[tony&rodney]

I had to laugh when I saw this post and the number of comments. Then I looked for what Brock had to say.

I'm a big fan of Max Kepler, always have been and have been disappointed at times but hung in for him. I also believe the Twins need him for 2024. A trade would need to return a substantial pitcher.

There may be help on the way in a couple of years from Emm-Rod and Jenkins, but the outfield is thin right now. I had high hopes for Trevor Larnach but he didn't look very good in St. Paul and may do better with a change/trade. Wallner made some impressive adjustments but still has a lot to prove. I'm putting him in the lineup every day though. All of Gordon, Martin, Prato, Helman, and Lewis look like decent utility players until they manage to grab a position and prove themselves as regulars. 

The players who have value to trade include: Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, and Lee. Polanco and Kepler are complimentary pieces. Kepler alone returns a relief pitcher. If the return includes a controllable pitcher like Gilbert or Kirby, the Twins may consider adding  Raya or Festa to the pile. 

[jmlease1]

It's an interesting question because Kepler has (deservedly) incurred the wrath of a lot of Twins fans in recent years for his struggles at the plate, but had such a strong second half of the season that he had real trade value again but also looks like an important cog for the twins lineup. I was getting close to the DFA period with him last season when he had a dreadful May, got hurt, and when he came back he stunk again but finally decided "DFA Gallo first, you need to keep one of them for now". Then Maxie got hot, finding his stroke at the end of June/early July and keeping it going through the end of the year.

I probably wouldn't be looking to trade him, but he's hardly untouchable. The contract is still reasonable and there's no one really hammering down the door in the OF...yet. (Martin is the closest to me and there's a real chance he's not ready for an every day role) I'd be a lot more interested in having this conversation about moving on from Kepler in a year after Emmanuel Rodriguez has terrorized AA and maybe AAA, Kala'i Rosario is closer, Walker Jenkins has gotten out of A-ball, etc. Jettisoning Kepler right now likely puts Nick Gordon in left, Wallner in right, and Martin as the 4th OF to backup/cover for Buxton. That COULD work...but Gordon is coming off such a rough year that it's hard to feel great about it. You just can't hand Larnach a starting job right now; that's malpractice for a playoff team, and I say that as someone who has been a fan of Larnach. The Gallo experience shows the risk of the retread bin, but there are going to be guys out there you can get on a 1 year $8M deal. but the only real reason to trade Kepler is if that's how you get a deal done for starting pitching that improves the top end of the team.

I think Kepler is going to have a solid season, probably a bit less productive than last year but also more consistent. (I'm also convinced that if he gets hurt and ends up on the IL for more than a few days, he's going to get sent out on a rehab assignment whether he wants to or not this time). 

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

I had to laugh when I saw this post and the number of comments. Then I looked for what Brock had to say.

I'm a big fan of Max Kepler, always have been and have been disappointed at times but hung in for him. I also believe the Twins need him for 2024. A trade would need to return a substantial pitcher.

There may be help on the way in a couple of years from Emm-Rod and Jenkins, but the outfield is thin right now. I had high hopes for Trevor Larnach but he didn't look very good in St. Paul and may do better with a change/trade. Wallner made some impressive adjustments but still has a lot to prove. I'm putting him in the lineup every day though. All of Gordon, Martin, Prato, Helman, and Lewis look like decent utility players until they manage to grab a position and prove themselves as regulars. 

The players who have value to trade include: Jeffers, Julien, Lewis, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, and Lee. Polanco and Kepler are complimentary pieces. Kepler alone returns a relief pitcher. If the return includes a controllable pitcher like Gilbert or Kirby, the Twins may consider adding  Raya or Festa to the pile. 

Absolutely agree. Losing Kepler would create a hole that the Twins can't fill at the moment. They have some tangible options coming but they're 18 and 20 years old. Keeping Kepler is the correct move unless they package him for a valuable starting pitcher.

[Hunter McCall]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It's an interesting question because Kepler has (deservedly) incurred the wrath of a lot of Twins fans in recent years for his struggles at the plate, but had such a strong second half of the season that he had real trade value again but also looks like an important cog for the twins lineup. I was getting close to the DFA period with him last season when he had a dreadful May, got hurt, and when he came back he stunk again but finally decided "DFA Gallo first, you need to keep one of them for now". Then Maxie got hot, finding his stroke at the end of June/early July and keeping it going through the end of the year.

I probably wouldn't be looking to trade him, but he's hardly untouchable. The contract is still reasonable and there's no one really hammering down the door in the OF...yet. (Martin is the closest to me and there's a real chance he's not ready for an every day role) I'd be a lot more interested in having this conversation about moving on from Kepler in a year after Emmanuel Rodriguez has terrorized AA and maybe AAA, Kala'i Rosario is closer, Walker Jenkins has gotten out of A-ball, etc. Jettisoning Kepler right now likely puts Nick Gordon in left, Wallner in right, and Martin as the 4th OF to backup/cover for Buxton. That COULD work...but Gordon is coming off such a rough year that it's hard to feel great about it. You just can't hand Larnach a starting job right now; that's malpractice for a playoff team, and I say that as someone who has been a fan of Larnach. The Gallo experience shows the risk of the retread bin, but there are going to be guys out there you can get on a 1 year $8M deal. but the only real reason to trade Kepler is if that's how you get a deal done for starting pitching that improves the top end of the team.

I think Kepler is going to have a solid season, probably a bit less productive than last year but also more consistent. (I'm also convinced that if he gets hurt and ends up on the IL for more than a few days, he's going to get sent out on a rehab assignment whether he wants to or not this time). 

I agree. The Twins are still a year away from considering any of those young guys. At this point, Max Kepler is the best option in my opinion.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Moving on from Kepler and letting Wallner start in right field, where Wallner played in the minors and where you can maximize his throwing arm, is the sort of routine move that a competitive team might make without losing too much sleep over.

As someone mentioned, they non-tendered Rosario, who was a better player than Kepler. 

Larnach doubtful will ever make an all star team, but Larnach would be my left fielder to start. I think he gets a bad rap here.

[Hunter McCall]

3 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Moving on from Kepler and letting Wallner start in right field, where Wallner played in the minors and where you can maximize his throwing arm, is the sort of routine move that a competitive team might make without losing too much sleep over.

As someone mentioned, they non-tendered Rosario, who was a better player than Kepler. 

Larnach doubtful will ever make an all star team, but Larnach would be my left fielder to start. I think he gets a bad rap here.

Saying Rosario was better than Kepler is just not true. In a full season, Kepler has never produced less than 2 WAR in any season with 2023 being his second best season (behind 2019) to date. Since they've both been full-time MLB players, Eddie Rosario only outperformed Max Kepler in WAR in 2017 and 2018. That's it.

Larnach has not been good by any standard and is not suited at this point in time to handle an every day lineup position.

[jmlease1]

9 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

As someone mentioned, they non-tendered Rosario, who was a better player than Kepler. 

He really wasn't, though. They'd been fairly close in total value (Eddie a more consistent hitter, Kepler a much better defender) and had fairly similar value in 2020. Since the Twins non-tendered Rosario, Kepler (despite his flaws and struggles at the plate) has easily been the better player (and cheaper).

but that's also the sort of player that's going to be out there if Kepler gets dealt and the Twins are looking for an OF on a 1-year deal. Rosario was ok last season but not an average starter. Maybe there's some juice left there...but also might be a replacement level guy (or worse) at 32.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 minutes ago, Hunter McCall said:

Saying Rosario was better than Kepler is just not true. In a full season, Kepler has never produced less than 2 WAR in any season with 2023 being his second best season (behind 2019) to date. Since they've both been full-time MLB players, Eddie Rosario only outperformed Max Kepler in WAR in 2017 and 2018. That's it.

Larnach has not been good by any standard and is not suited at this point in time to handle an every day lineup position.

At this point we start falling into the “was he healthy” trap, depending who our favorite players are and what arguments we are making. 

Was Rosario underperforming because he was battling injuries, or not? Was Correa underperforming because he was battling injuries, or not? What about Kepler? What about Larnach? With Larnach, it was actually an illness that knocked him out the first time last season. Is it really fair to your analysis to just say he’s no good, without taking into account as much information as possible?

[TwinsDr2021]

19 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I think he gets a bad rap here.

How does somebody with 188 career games and a OPS+ 95 get a bad rap? He isn't terrible, but he will be 27 in February. I hope he starts in AAA does really, really well and forces his way to Minneapolis, but between him and Wallner they haven't done enough for both to be  GIVEN a starting job on a division winning team. You can do it with one and should do it for one. I personally would go with the younger guy and has done more in 94 career games than the older guy in twice as many games.

[KBJ1]

While I have always thought Kepler to be a valuable player, Wallner is basically the same player for 1/10 the price.

What we need to fill is the gaping hole in LF with a 5 tool RH bat. Lourdes Gurriel fills that void. Trading Kepler, Polanco plus prospects for SP & bullpen help is our best path forward.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Right now we have a team that is good enough to win a weak division. Trading Kepler and or Polanco will greatly jeapordize that possibility. We don't have a whole lot of established depth and trading them destroys the depth that we do have, which as stated in the article is none in the OF now as it is. Neither of these, or both combined is going to fetch a #1 or #2 SP. But they are both needed pieces on the team we have right now. I agree that this team needs a #2 SP to slide in behind Lopez. But the organization decided to cut costs after winning the division and let Sonny Grey leave for St.Louis. Smh.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

9 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

He really wasn't, though. They'd been fairly close in total value (Eddie a more consistent hitter, Kepler a much better defender) and had fairly similar value in 2020. Since the Twins non-tendered Rosario, Kepler (despite his flaws and struggles at the plate) has easily been the better player (and cheaper).

but that's also the sort of player that's going to be out there if Kepler gets dealt and the Twins are looking for an OF on a 1-year deal. Rosario was ok last season but not an average starter. Maybe there's some juice left there...but also might be a replacement level guy (or worse) at 32.

That’s fair. Heading into 2020 I might have called Rosario and Kepler both really good outfielders and about the same, but the past few years may have biased me towards Rosario. Not sure. 

I have no idea how Kepler will perform this year. 

the thing about Rosario though is he had that uncapturable quality about him, the twinkle in the eye, the which is why so many people liked him and wanted to keep him around. The anticipation he might do something special despite all his mistakes.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

How does somebody with 188 career games and a OPS+ 95 get a bad rap? He isn't terrible, but he will be 27 in February. I hope he starts in AAA does really, really well and forces his way to Minneapolis, but between him and Wallner they haven't done enough for both to be  GIVEN a starting job on a division winning team. You can do it with one and should do it for one. I personally would go with the younger guy and has done more in 94 career games than the older guy in twice as many games.

That’s fair. We can disagree about Larnach. I can live with him being a placeholder if nothing else. 

As far as Kepler/Wallner and right field, I don’t see a reason not to make the move, other than someone is guessing that Kepler will perform in 2024 like he did the second half last year. But I don’t think anyone has any idea whether he will or not, including the front office. 

[Hunter McCall]

20 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

At this point we start falling into the “was he healthy” trap, depending who our favorite players are and what arguments we are making. 

Was Rosario underperforming because he was battling injuries, or not? Was Correa underperforming because he was battling injuries, or not? What about Kepler? What about Larnach? With Larnach, it was actually an illness that knocked him out the first time last season. Is it really fair to your analysis to just say he’s no good, without taking into account as much information as possible?

I mean Rosario left Minnesota and continued to regress, so I don't think injuries can be to blame there. Larnach has continuously struggled to hit breaking and off-speed pitches so I think that's a real flaw in his game that he has to fix.

[Hunter McCall]

21 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

How does somebody with 188 career games and a OPS+ 95 get a bad rap? He isn't terrible, but he will be 27 in February. I hope he starts in AAA does really, really well and forces his way to Minneapolis, but between him and Wallner they haven't done enough for both to be  GIVEN a starting job on a division winning team. You can do it with one and should do it for one. I personally would go with the younger guy and has done more in 94 career games than the older guy in twice as many games.

Agree. Wallner should get a crack with the opening day lineup. It would be malpractice to rely on Larnach to fill a starting spot on a good team.

[Hunter McCall]

19 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

While I have always thought Kepler to be a valuable player, Wallner is basically the same player for 1/10 the price.

What we need to fill is the gaping hole in LF with a 5 tool RH bat. Lourdes Gurriel fills that void. Trading Kepler, Polanco plus prospects for SP & bullpen help is our best path forward.

This would be good with me if the Twins could pull it off. I love Wallner. The problem is the other position as you mentioned. Bottom line is it can't be Larnach and the Twins can only move Max Kepler if they are improving significantly elsewhere.

[Hunter McCall]

14 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

That’s fair. We can disagree about Larnach. I can live with him being a placeholder if nothing else. 

As far as Kepler/Wallner and right field, I don’t see a reason not to make the move, other than someone is guessing that Kepler will perform in 2024 like he did the second half last year. But I don’t think anyone has any idea whether he will or not, including the front office. 

We've seen that Kepler can perform (and even if he doesn't hit can still provide consistent 2 WAR production) we haven't seen the same out of Larnach who would be asked to replace Kepler.

[PatPfund]

A year ago I would have screamed YES!!! For a bag of used baseballs!!!!! But Max's second half made me remember why I have a Kepler jersey, and frankly (for reasons documented ably in the OP) I'm not a big believer in the Twin's supposed deep OF. Moving Max leaves a hole in the lineup most ably filled by another starter elsewhere, and none of them come close to the defense.

It is the same sort of tail-chasing exercise as trading Vasquez to save payroll while sending money to cover part of his salary (something I'd bet the team won't do, but I've seen suggested on the site).

[umterp23]

I don't mind keeping Kepler until he proves he shouldn't be around.  Problem could be he has a so-so avg year and then the whole QO conversation starts.  QO$ might be double what he is making now and do the twins stomach giving him that offer as he might accept it and then we trade him for minor leaguers this time next year?  

Now on the other hand.  Why not push Larnach in a trade as he hasn't shown he can produce consistently game in game out?  Granted value isn't there for trade, but let's say we package him for some pitching, would we do it?

Or move Kiriloff if he is a 1B only kind of guy.  If we don't move polanco, then Julien can play 1st.  Keep Farmer and ask him to be our righty 1B as needed.  Farmer is your infield utility and Castro can roam LF/CF as needed.  Gordon has no value as a week hitting OF.

 

[Hunter McCall]

6 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

A year ago I would have screamed YES!!! For a bag of used baseballs!!!!! But Max's second half made me remember why I have a Kepler jersey, and frankly (for reasons documented ably in the OP) I'm not a big believer in the Twin's supposed deep OF. Moving Max leaves a hole in the lineup most ably filled by another starter elsewhere, and none of them come close to the defense.

It is the same sort of tail-chasing exercise as trading Vasquez to save payroll while sending money to cover part of his salary (something I'd bet the team won't do, but I've seen suggested on the site).

Good analogy at the end there. It would be a lot like tail-chasing. Plugging one hole for another to pop up type of scenario. Thanks for reading!

[Hunter McCall]

10 minutes ago, umterp23 said:

I don't mind keeping Kepler until he proves he shouldn't be around.  Problem could be he has a so-so avg year and then the whole QO conversation starts.  QO$ might be double what he is making now and do the twins stomach giving him that offer as he might accept it and then we trade him for minor leaguers this time next year?  

Now on the other hand.  Why not push Larnach in a trade as he hasn't shown he can produce consistently game in game out?  Granted value isn't there for trade, but let's say we package him for some pitching, would we do it?

Or move Kiriloff if he is a 1B only kind of guy.  If we don't move polanco, then Julien can play 1st.  Keep Farmer and ask him to be our righty 1B as needed.  Farmer is your infield utility and Castro can roam LF/CF as needed.  Gordon has no value as a week hitting OF.

 

I'd be all for moving Larnach, problem is I'm not sure him or Kirilloff carry the same value they once did. Adding Larnach to a package would be okay though if it helps!

[gman]

I'm hunting a trade for Kepler. This is probably his high point for trade value since 2019 and take that peak for what it's worth. Would they really try to resign him next year for 3/50. I doubt it. If no trade shows up, keep him but plan on trading him as soon as practicable.