Will the Twins Regret Leaving DaShawn Keirsey Unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft?

[Greglw3]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I also hope he stays in the organization players like this can be good depth, But looking at the history of baseball guys like him rarely if ever turn into anything but a bit player at best. (Not meant for you) but people need to realize not every Twins prospect is the exception to the rule, and not every Twins prospect will turn into a future All Star type player.

I have read on here Lee is a future Correa and maybe better, Martin is a all start type player in Kiermaier, Lewis is the next Jeter, Walker is a future HOF type player, Julien is the next Arraez or better. ERod is the next Soto, Raya the next future Cy Young award winner and ON and ON. It is great to have hope and be an optimist but with those type of expectations the odds say ever one of them will be a let down.

This is not meant to be a retort at all, just a player I remember maturing late, Mickey Tettleton made a sudden jump to star status from run of the mill player at age 28-29, moreso at 30-34. I think Champ Summers of the Tigers did the same thing. I actually tend to think the average arrival time for most MLB players is 25-26. Maybe Keirsey will be like Nick Gordon.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

This is not meant to be a retort at all, just a player I remember maturing late, Mickey Tettleton made a sudden jump to star status from run of the mill player at age 28-29, moreso at 30-34. I think Champ Summers of the Tigers did the same thing. I actually tend to think the average arrival time for most MLB players is 25-26. Maybe Keirsey will be like Nick Gordon.

He is the type of player that proves my point. drafted out of college at age 19 and then went straight to A ball and played there for two years and at age 23 played AA and was in the majors. From age 23 though 27 and you can see only played about half the games each season which I assume was because of injury because he wasn't playing more than a handful of games in the minors.  I don't really think he made a sudden jump, he looks like he stopped getting injured and actually starting playing a good amount of games. So I would say he compares to AK, not Keirsey.

There is a really good article on Driveline about about pitchers and debuting in the majors (average debut age for a pitcher 24.8). (Talks about Age, Body Type), one thing they say about age.

Player age is an important variable in the process of projecting and assessing the true value of a prospect. The importance of age in player development is due to an existing aging curve, which explains that you can expect a player’s performance to decline over time as they age due to a variety of factors.

On average, pitchers saw a bump in velocity on their heater from around age 22 to 26 years of age. At ~27 years old, fastball velocity is expected to decline. It is important to note survivorship bias, which explains that we can only account for the older players that stayed in the big leagues, and can’t account for players who were released or retired in the sample.

If anybody cares google - The Makeup of a Pitcher Debuting in the Major Leagues

[Greglw3]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

He is the type of player that proves my point. drafted out of college at age 19 and then went straight to A ball and played there for two years and at age 23 played AA and was in the majors. From age 23 though 27 and you can see only played about half the games each season which I assume was because of injury because he wasn't playing more than a handful of games in the minors.  I don't really think he made a sudden jump, he looks like he stopped getting injured and actually starting playing a good amount of games. So I would say he compares to AK, not Keirsey.

There is a really good article on Driveline about about pitchers and debuting in the majors (average debut age for a pitcher 24.8). (Talks about Age, Body Type), one thing they say about age.

Player age is an important variable in the process of projecting and assessing the true value of a prospect. The importance of age in player development is due to an existing aging curve, which explains that you can expect a player’s performance to decline over time as they age due to a variety of factors.

On average, pitchers saw a bump in velocity on their heater from around age 22 to 26 years of age. At ~27 years old, fastball velocity is expected to decline. It is important to note survivorship bias, which explains that we can only account for the older players that stayed in the big leagues, and can’t account for players who were released or retired in the sample.

If anybody cares google - The Makeup of a Pitcher Debuting in the Major Leagues

Here's Wikipedia’sdescription of Tettleton’s journey. I was playing Strat-O-Matic at the time and distinctly remember Tettleton emerging in his late 20s to star status. See the 2nd paragraph where it says 1989 was a breakout year for Tettleton (I believe he was 29 when he had his breakout year. Champ Summers was another one that popped up late, establishing himself at 32, then having several very good OPS+ marks in his 30s. I remember him with Detroit as I lived in Toledo.

 

Baseball Reference Champ Summers 

 

 

 

 

 

[specialiststeve]

Hindsight answer.... nope... was a bit surprised that no one did pick him up as a 4th OF type but... should be back and ready for duty at AAA and an injury away.. from the show. 

[stringer bell]

As far as late bloomers go, that we can name exceptions pretty much proves how rare it is. Or as my Sociology professor in college said “the exceptions prove the rule.”

Players usually peak from their late twenties to early thirties and get more injuries as they age. An exception to the injury rule would be Paul Molitor, but that it is so rare we can name him does not bode well for Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff and Byron Buxton. 

[TwinsDr2021]

On 12/8/2023 at 3:02 PM, Greglw3 said:

. See the 2nd paragraph where it says 1989 was a breakout year for Tettleton

You might want to find better guys. Tettleton was in the majors age 23 as a catcher, and not repeating AA at age 26 as an outfielder.

I have never said that older prospects can't be good or have good careers. It is just very rare for every Whit Merrified there are thousands of guys that didn't pan out.

Gallo's and Sano only 30 maybe there is still time for them to break out like Champ Summers.

[Greglw3]

On 12/10/2023 at 9:10 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

You might want to find better guys. Tettleton was in the majors age 23 as a catcher, and not repeating AA at age 26 as an outfielder.

I have never said that older prospects can't be good or have good careers. It is just very rare for every Whit Merrified there are thousands of guys that didn't pan out.

Gallo's and Sano only 30 maybe there is still time for them to break out like Champ Summers.

One thing I’m sure of is that Gallo and Sano are highly unlikely to be as good as Summers in their 30s. But who knows?

My whole thing with Keirsey was watching a lot of video of him in 2013 and falling in love with his swing, his defense and his speed.

[Riverbrian]

On 12/10/2023 at 9:10 PM, TwinsDr2021 said:

You might want to find better guys. Tettleton was in the majors age 23 as a catcher, and not repeating AA at age 26 as an outfielder.

I have never said that older prospects can't be good or have good careers. It is just very rare for every Whit Merrified there are thousands of guys that didn't pan out.

Gallo's and Sano only 30 maybe there is still time for them to break out like Champ Summers.

I agree with you... It's rare but I will contend that legitimate opportunity is also rare especially for players like Keirsay.  

Organizations will hand select players who will get multiple chances to have a major league career

While they do not will not provide opportunity for many many many others. 

If you feed one puppy and neglect the rest of the litter. You'll have a bunch of runts. 

Trevor Larnach, Deshawn Kiersay and Michael Helman are all 26 year old baseball players (Helman actually 27) who were all drafted out of college in 2018. Larnach went 1st round, Keirsay was a 4th round pick and Helman went in the 11th Round.  

Larnach has 603 Major League AB's. Keirsay and Helman have not seen a major league dugout. 

Larnach has not earned a major league job yet but he will get the next opportunity to earn a major league job before Kiersay or Helman even get a phone call.

To be clear... I'm not saying that Larnach should or shouldn't get the next opportunity... I also want to be clear that I am not slamming Larnach when I'm using him as an example... But... I am... saying that HE WILL get the next opportunity and I am also saying Kiersay and Helman will have to wait behind Larnach's last chance.  

Larnach has one option left. If Larnach fails, not only does Larnach fail but every player behind Larnach on the opportunity chance depth chart fails... and those players won't make a sound when they fail... it will happen silently. 

Now tack on the extended opportunity provided to the Kole Calhoun's of the world add it all up and I agree with you. Whit Merrifield is rare. Max Muncy is rare, Justin Turner is rare but it's going to be rare when opportunity is rare. 

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

28 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Trevor Larnach, Deshawn Kiersay and Michael Helman are all 26 year old baseball players (Helman actually 27) who were all drafted out of college in 2018. Larnach went 1st round, Keirsay was a 4th round pick and Helman went in the 11th Round.  

Helman was 22 in 2018 and played in Rookie, A, and High A. Did great in Rookie and A, In 2019 struggled in high A again. Then missed 2020, repeated high A as a 25 year old and wasn't great.  As a 26 year old he played AA and AAA and didn't light the world on fire. As a 27 year old repeated AAA and did pretty OK in 108 at bats, nothing about his minor career screams he deserved anything more than he has gotten. ( minors 5 years, .258/.330,.430)

Keirsey was 21 and played 26 games in rookie, IN 2019 he played A ball and had an OPS of .406, missed 2020, in 21 (he was 24) payed high A and hit .199 with a .733 OPS, In 22 as a 25 year old he played AA, he hit for a higher average but had a SLG of .395.. As a 26 year old he repeated AA and hit really well, but not as well as younger (in some cases much younger) in the league. He moved up to AA and continued to do well.  Again nothing screams he deserved anything more than he has gotten (minors 5 years, .261/.336/.399)

Larnach was 21 in 2018, started in Rookie and had an OPS of .905, moved up to A and had had an OPS of .878, in 19 he started in high A and slashed .316/.382/.459, moved up to AA and slashed .295/.387/.455, Missed 2020 and started 21 in AAA and has kind of stunk since (there have been moments here an there and injuries haven't helped) it does seem like maybe the Twins rushed him a bit in 21.

 

If you compare those three and take away where they were drafted are you really going to say one was given more chances than the other two? Larnach has been better every step of the way and in AAA last year as well. (minors 5 years .286/.377/.464), does draft position matter? absolutely, but really good players can overcome, 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

12 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Helman was 22 in 2018 and played in Rookie, A, and High A. Did great in Rookie and A, In 2019 struggled in high A again. Then missed 2020, repeated high A as a 25 year old and wasn't great.  As a 26 year old he played AA and AAA and didn't light the world on fire. As a 27 year old repeated AAA and did pretty OK in 108 at bats, nothing about his minor career screams he deserved anything more than he has gotten. ( minors 5 years, .258/.330,.430)

Keirsey was 21 and played 26 games in rookie, IN 2019 he played A ball and had an OPS of .406, missed 2020, in 21 (he was 24) payed high A and hit .199 with a .733 OPS, In 22 as a 25 year old he played AA, he hit for a higher average but had a SLG of .395.. As a 26 year old he repeated AA and hit really well, but not as well as younger (in some cases much younger) in the league. He moved up to AA and continued to do well.  Again nothing screams he deserved anything more than he has gotten (minors 5 years, .261/.336/.399)

Larnach was 21 in 2018, started in Rookie and had an OPS of .905, moved up to A and had had an OPS of .878, in 19 he started in high A and slashed .316/.382/.459, moved up to AA and slashed .295/.387/.455, Missed 2020 and started 21 in AAA and has kind of stunk since (there have been moments here an there and injuries haven't helped) it does seem like maybe the Twins rushed him a bit in 21.

 

If you compare those three and take away where they were drafted are you really going to say one was given more chances than the other two? Larnach has been better every step of the way and in AAA last year as well. (minors 5 years .286/.377/.464), does draft position matter? absolutely, but really good players can overcome, 

 

 

I agree that Larnach has been better. Which is why I stated this below. 

43 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

To be clear... I'm not saying that Larnach should or shouldn't get the next opportunity... I also want to be clear that I am not slamming Larnach when I'm using him as an example... But... I am... saying that HE WILL get the next opportunity and I am also saying that Kiersay and Helman will have to wait behind Larnach's last chance. 

Once again... I use too many words. I'll condense it.

Success is rare because opportunity for success is rare. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I agree that Larnach has been better. Which is why I stated this below. 

Once again... I use too many words. I'll condense it.

Success is rare because opportunity for success is rare. 

And it's been rarer around here lately. In the low budget early years of this century, and then in the talent void of the teen years, these guys likely all would have been up at the majors, maybe even two years ago.

I mean these guys look a lot like Dustan Mohr, Lew Ford. Brian Dozier and Chris Herrmann. Not only did those guys have fewer players to battle over promotions, and more promotion opportunities, they also didn't have a COVID year.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

And it's been rarer around here lately. In the low budget early years of this century, and then in the talent void of the teen years, these guys likely all would have been up at the majors, maybe even two years ago.

I mean these guys look a lot like Dustan Mohr, Lew Ford. Brian Dozier and Chris Herrmann. Not only did those guys have fewer players to battle over promotions, and more promotion opportunities, they also didn't have a COVID year.

I've thought about this a lot and I've posted on this a lot. I can't stand here and say that I have the answer because there are massive complications and I am not in the room...   however... with all of the time that I've spent thinking about it... the solution to me seems to boil down to one thing. 

Teams need to be less tolerant of poor performance on the 26 man roster.

Every time you hand playing time to average or bad play. You are making it harder for a Cedric Mullins to surprise you, you are making it harder for a Jose Altuve to reveal themselves. Cedric Mullins is rare in part because a Logan Morrison in the way isn't rare.  

If you give every day playing time to Logan Morrison... you are giving Logan Morrison the same amount of playing time that Mike Trout gets and that should never be. 

Cull from the bottom... constantly look for better... even if it is just incremental betterness and the Cedric Mullins, Max Muncy, Jose Altuve type finds will become less rare. 

If Keirsay is going to be denied a chance to forge a major league career... OK... that's fine... there is only so much space... but that 26 man roster better be shiny... better not be any Joey Gallos on that 26 man. 

If Nick Anderson is going to be denied a chance... OK... that's fine... it happens... there is only so much space... but that 26 man roster better be shiny... better not be any Matt Belisle's in front of him.  

[miracleb]

I easily see him being on the 2024 Twin's team at various points in the season......so I am very happy no one chose him!
:)

[jorgenswest]

On 1/4/2024 at 11:33 AM, Riverbrian said:

Every time you hand playing time to average or bad play. You are making it harder for a Cedric Mullins to surprise you, you are making it harder for a Jose Altuve to reveal themselves. Cedric Mullins is rare in part because a Logan Morrison in the way isn't rare. 

Mullins got his first opportunity at age 23. He was up and down for three years until he ran out of options. It was his fourth opportunity at age 26 when he had run out of options before he posted a season with a wRC+ above 100. Weren’t the Orioles quite patient with his at best poor to average performance while waiting to be rewarded that 4th major league season? 

As for Altuve the guy crushed it in high A (169 wRC+) and AA (153 wRC+) to earn his opportunity half way into his AA season.

 

[ashbury]

22 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Mullins got his first opportunity at age 23. He was up and down for three years until he ran out of options.

Minor quibble, 2020 was the Covid year and he played reasonably close to a full season in the majors; moreover, there wasn't any "down" to come up from, or vice versa.  😄  FangRaphs shows him with 2 minor league options remaining now.

[ashbury]

On 1/4/2024 at 11:33 AM, Riverbrian said:

Cedric Mullins is rare in part because a Logan Morrison in the way isn't rare. 

"Logan Morrison was on the Orioles?"

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Minor quibble, 2020 was the Covid year and he played reasonably close to a full season in the majors; moreover, there wasn't any "down" to come up from, or vice versa.  😄  FangRaphs shows him with 2 minor league options remaining now.

Good point about 2020. They gave him an extended run of three before he was an average bat. Maybe the Twins should be more patient though it is easier to be patient when you aren’t in contention.

[Riverbrian]

12 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Mullins got his first opportunity at age 23. He was up and down for three years until he ran out of options. It was his fourth opportunity at age 26 when he had run out of options before he posted a season with a wRC+ above 100. Weren’t the Orioles quite patient with his at best poor to average performance while waiting to be rewarded that 4th major league season? 

As for Altuve the guy crushed it in high A (169 wRC+) and AA (153 wRC+) to earn his opportunity half way into his AA season.

 

These are just examples... There are more. 

But... for these two examples... The Astros and the Orioles had to go into complete rebuild to provide opportunity for Altuve and Mullins.

Altuve didn't show up on any top ten lists in the Astros system. He was hitting the ball in the minors as a 21 year old and the Astros gave him an opportunity rather than going with some 30 year old average to below average guy. The Astros could have easily just kept Keppinger.

Kept Keppinger is fun to say three times fast. 

Yes... the Orioles were patient with Cedric Mullins... would they have been quite so patient if Adam Jones was still an Oriole in 2021. Would they have been quite so patient if they would have signed Jackie Bradley Jr for his superior defensive skills. 

Mullins... Santander... not many were saying... the Orioles are going to be good when Mullins and Santander get here. They got opportunity and they became more than what anyone expected. 

Letting a Logan Morrison type play horribly, play every day, taking up a valuable roster spot just makes it harder to near impossible for a Mullins or Altuve to surprise you.

Which brings me back to the original point.

It's rare because the opportunity is rare.

The opportunity is rare because clubs tend to Keep Keppinger... Keep Keppinger... Keep Keppinger.   

[TwinsDr2021]

On 1/6/2024 at 6:37 AM, Riverbrian said:

These are just examples... There are more. 

But... for these two examples... The Astros and the Orioles had to go into complete rebuild to provide opportunity for Altuve and Mullins.

Altuve didn't show up on any top ten lists in the Astros system. He was hitting the ball in the minors as a 21 year old and the Astros gave him an opportunity rather than going with some 30 year old average to below average guy. The Astros could have easily just kept Keppinger.

Kept Keppinger is fun to say three times fast. 

Yes... the Orioles were patient with Cedric Mullins... would they have been quite so patient if Adam Jones was still an Oriole in 2021. Would they have been quite so patient if they would have signed Jackie Bradley Jr for his superior defensive skills. 

Mullins... Santander... not many were saying... the Orioles are going to be good when Mullins and Santander get here. They got opportunity and they became more than what anyone expected. 

Letting a Logan Morrison type play horribly, play every day, taking up a valuable roster spot just makes it harder to near impossible for a Mullins or Altuve to surprise you.

Which brings me back to the original point.

It's rare because the opportunity is rare.

The opportunity is rare because clubs tend to Keep Keppinger... Keep Keppinger... Keep Keppinger.   

Altuve is a horrible example, he made the majors at age 21 and was putting up minor league numbers that were pretty freaking good. .409 as a 21 year old in high A with a OPS of 1.017, moved up to AA and didn't drop of much. Mullens was close to Kepler in turns of minor league performance.

IMO it isn't rare to give young guys with skills an opportunity. What is rare is to give an opportunity to a player that hasn't shown he is a quality minor league player before he is required to be on the 40 man.

You are using Keppinger as the fall guy here, but in ALL reality he is the guy you should have been using as the example.  Up at 24, but not really given a chance until he was 27/28, play 4 years until he was terrible and was done in the majors at age 33.

[Riverbrian]

30 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Altuve is a horrible example, he made the majors at age 21 and was putting up minor league numbers that were pretty freaking good. .409 as a 21 year old in high A with a OPS of 1.017, moved up to AA and didn't drop of much. Mullens was close to Kepler in turns of minor league performance.

IMO it isn't rare to give young guys with skills an opportunity. What is rare is to give an opportunity to a player that hasn't shown he is a quality minor league player before he is required to be on the 40 man.

I'm not sure how productive the discussion will be splitting hairs.   

Jose Altuve was the 13th ranked prospect in the Astro's system in 2011 when he made his debut. He wasn't in the Astros top twenty in 2010.  

Is handing a 21 year old who was the 13th ranked prospect in the organization bypassing AAA a typical thing in major league baseball? The debut of a 21 year old is RARE and exclusively reserved for the best of the best prospects. Jose Altuve was not Jordan Walker or Julio Rodriquez or Wander Franco or even Bobby Witt.   

The point of my post was about the rareness of opportunity. I'd say Jose Altuve getting an opportunity at that point... was about as rare as it gets.

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

33 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO it isn't rare to give young guys with skills an opportunity. What is rare is to give an opportunity to a player that hasn't shown he is a quality minor league player before he is required to be on the 40 man.

Showing you are a quality minor league player doesn't do the trick either.

Lukan Baker hit 33 home runs last year with Memphis - OPS of 1.159

I understand that Goldschmidt is a pretty good player in front of him. What kind of opportunity is Lukan Baker going to have? 

Michael Busch had a 1.049 OPS last year at Oklahoma City. The Dodgers are not clearing room for him.... they are adding established major league hitters as we speak.  

Trey Cabbage led the PCL in Home Runs last year. 30 dingers with a .304 average to boot. He might get a chance with the Angels this year... Might. 

But... I'm guessing he is still going to wait behind, Trout, Moniak, Ward, Drury, Rendon, Schanuel and Adell.

That type of quality minor league performance got Trey 56 AB's last year while the Angels provided 1,919 to players who performed below major league average at the positions that Trey can play. 

Renfroe, Rendon, Moustakas, Urshela, Grichuk, Escobar, Walsh got the AB's first. 

Opportunity is rare.  

[TwinsDr2021]

22 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm not sure how productive the discussion will be splitting hairs.   

Jose Altuve was the 13th ranked prospect in the Astro's system in 2011 when he made his debut. He wasn't in the Astros top twenty in 2010.  

Is handing a 21 year old who was the 13th ranked prospect in the organization bypassing AAA a typical thing in major league baseball? The debut of a 21 year old is RARE and exclusively reserved for the best of the best prospects. Jose Altuve was not Jordan Walker or Julio Rodriquez or Wander Franco or even Bobby Witt.   

The point of my post was about the rareness of opportunity. I'd say Jose Altuve getting an opportunity at that point... was about as rare as it gets.

 

 

 

I don't think what you are saying is that rare, low(er) rated prospects that all of sudden show the hitting tool get moved quickly all the time, the Twins have two examples Polanco and Arraez. 2021 mid season twins top prospects Julien was in the mid 20's, year and a half later he is in the majors. Miranda, Steer Wallner are also examples, 2022 CES was barely a Twins top 30 prospects was in the majors the next season.

If you show the hit tool, you moved regardless of where you were drafted. 2017 Austin RIley was question mark (after thought)  prospect after being a top 7 pick a few years prior, the next year he was 8th and the next year in the majors at 22.

I will give you it probably helps if your team isn't great, but the the hitting tool always will keep you moving.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Showing you are a quality minor league player doesn't do the trick either.

Lukan Baker hit 33 home runs last year with Memphis - OPS of 1.159

I understand that Goldschmidt is a pretty good player in front of him. What kind of opportunity is Lukan Baker going to have? 

Michael Busch had a 1.049 OPS last year at Oklahoma City. The Dodgers are not clearing room for him.... they are adding established major league hitters as we speak.  

Trey Cabbage led the PCL in Home Runs last year. 30 dingers with a .304 average to boot. He might get a chance with the Angels this year... Might. 

But... I'm guessing he is still going to wait behind, Trout, Moniak, Ward, Drury, Rendon, Schanuel and Adell.

That type of quality minor league performance got Trey 56 AB's last year while the Angels provided 1,919 to players who performed below major league average at the positions that Trey can play. 

Renfroe, Rendon, Moustakas, Urshela, Grichuk, Escobar, Walsh got the AB's first. 

Opportunity is rare.  

and yet Baker, Cabbage, Busch all got a chance after showing hey could hit, the first two after a few years of not being all that good in the minors years earlier. Busch was a top 5 Dodger prospect going into last year but it does seem weird he hasn't been give more of a chance since he has been pretty good (or better) in the minors since 2021.

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't think what you are saying is that rare, low(er) rated prospects that all of sudden show the hitting tool get moved quickly all the time, the Twins have two examples Polanco and Arraez. 2021 mid season twins top prospects Julien was in the mid 20's, year and a half later he is in the majors. Miranda, Steer Wallner are also examples, 2022 CES was barely a Twins top 30 prospects was in the majors the next season.

If you show the hit tool, you moved regardless of where you were drafted. 2017 Austin RIley was question mark (after thought)  prospect after being a top 7 pick a few years prior, the next year he was 8th and the next year in the majors at 22.

I will give you it probably helps if your team isn't great, but the the hitting tool always will keep you moving.

You are making some great points. 

I think Arraez is a very good comp for Altuve. Arraez was 22 and the 17th ranked Twins prospect in 2019 the year he got his chance when Nelson Cruz hit the DL. Neither were bonus babies. 

The differences between the two are:

1. Houston wasn't great when Altuve made his debut while the Twins were pretty damn good in 2019. 

2. The Twins moved Arraez all over the diamond to keep him in the majors and I appreciate that they did that. Luis didn't take the starting 2B job in his first year. That job belonged to Schoop at the time. If they didn't move Arraez around... He would have found himself back in AAA because Schoop was the starting 2B. Arraez played 49 games at 2B, 21 games at LF, 17 Games at 3B, 8 games at SS and 5 at DH. I am in another discussion right now where people are telling me that Polanco can't play a position other than 2B and therefore we must trade him because of Julien and they are telling me that Polanco's defense isn't adequate at other positions.

We won 101 games in 2019 with Polanco at SS and Arraez playing LF, 3B and SS.   

 

[Riverbrian]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

and yet Baker, Cabbage, Busch all got a chance after showing hey could hit, the first two after a few years of not being all that good in the minors years earlier. Busch was a top 5 Dodger prospect going into last year but it does seem weird he hasn't been give more of a chance since he has been pretty good (or better) in the minors since 2021.

Not much of a chance.

2023 would have been a great year to give Baker an extended run in consideration of the Cardinals performance last year. 

Same goes for Cabbage in Anaheim. They played a lot of veteran players who didn't play very well instead. 

Busch... is a little more understandable because the Dodgers had a lot of young options to try. 

[Mike Sixel]

44 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

You are making some great points. 

I think Arraez is a very good comp for Altuve. Arraez was 22 and the 17th ranked Twins prospect in 2019 the year he got his chance when Nelson Cruz hit the DL. Neither were bonus babies. 

The differences between the two are:

1. Houston wasn't great when Altuve made his debut while the Twins were pretty damn good in 2019. 

2. The Twins moved Arraez all over the diamond to keep him in the majors and I appreciate that they did that. Luis didn't take the starting 2B job in his first year. That job belonged to Schoop at the time. If they didn't move Arraez around... He would have found himself back in AAA because Schoop was the starting 2B. Arraez played 49 games at 2B, 21 games at LF, 17 Games at 3B, 8 games at SS and 5 at DH. I am in another discussion right now where people are telling me that Polanco can't play a position other than 2B and therefore we must trade him because of Julien and they are telling me that Polanco's defense isn't adequate at other positions.

We won 101 games in 2019 with Polanco at SS and Arraez playing LF, 3B and SS.   

 

Polanco last played there multiple years and injuries ago....do you really think he could play an extended time at SS if he had to? More than a few games? He's not 22 like Arraez was. Do you really think Polanco should be at SS for more than an inning or so a game, in an emergency?

[Riverbrian]

50 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Polanco last played there multiple years and injuries ago....do you really think he could play an extended time at SS if he had to? More than a few games? He's not 22 like Arraez was. Do you really think Polanco should be at SS for more than an inning or so a game, in an emergency?

I'm not asking him to.  

What's my point? 

He wasn't the best at it in 2019 either... We still won because the rest of the team was pretty good and they were pretty good because they hit the ball collectively as a group. Polanco and Arraez in the same lineup made us better and neither played their natural position of 2B and it was good for us.

I have no idea if he can play SS in 2024. I don't care but I'm reasonably certain that he can play baseball beyond 2B if needed and I'm reasonably certain that we are a better team with Polanco in the lineup wherever that may be.         

Anyway... This is my fault for mixing two discussions into one.

My point in this thread is that the Twins found away to get Arraez into the lineup in 2019 because he was hitting the ball and how they did that is pretty interesting and here we are in 2023 and we have posters who watched Arraez move around and think that Polanco and Julien can't. 

To bring this back to the original discussion... If you can't move Arraez around... he gets sent down because Schoop was the guy at 2B.      

[Twinsoholic]

Riverbrian’s statement, “Letting a Logan Morrison type play horribly, play every day, taking up a valuable roster spot just makes it harder to near impossible for a Mullins or Altuve to surprise you,” reminded me of the futility of Tom Kelly repeatedly playing Brent Gates rather than a younger player. It was brutal tv watching as was reading on Fastball, and other Twins forum of that time, the Kelly defenders of this decision to continue penciling in Gates game after game after game after game.  

[cmoss84]

There are tons of really good players who never get their cup o' coffee. Many of them probably would have been excellent MLB players. Opportunity IS rare. Many players to not get an opportunity, and if they do get one and do not cash in, they are done. 

Obviously some bias here...but one of my former high school players was in the Blue Jays and Phillies organizations for the better part of the 2010s. Almost got a chance, but didn't. Ended up playing in the Independent League and winning a national triple crown. Brewers gave him a chance after that...it came down to him vs. Jesus Aguilar. Aguilar won (who played ages 24-26 with the Guardians with a total of 60 ABs and almost did not get a chance himself). 

Logan Morrison ended his career on that team LOL.