Joe Mauer Hall of Fame Vote Watch

[AlwaysinModeration]

On 1/12/2024 at 9:16 AM, DJL44 said:

In other Twins news, this looks like it will be Torii Hunter's last season on the ballot as well. He's tracking to fall below 5%.

He has 8 votes so far, and has gained one vote from last year’s voters and one vote from new voters.  He needs 11-12 more votes to stay on the ballot; my guess is he gets there.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On 1/13/2024 at 10:40 AM, kydoty said:

Just booked air, car and hotel for Albany.  I’m confident at this point Mauer will get the votes so might as well get ahead of it before everyone else starts to book right after the announcement.

Never been to Cooperstown, so seeing a player whom I’ve watched virtually every at bat they took at the big league level get inducted is the perfect time to do it.  Going to bring my 71 year old mom, who got me into loving baseball and the Twins.  It will be a highlight of her life. 

You will love it.  The HOF is really cool.  Be warned, it's a small town so things will get exceedingly crowded. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

175 votes tallied:

Beltre 173, 98.9%
Mauer 146, 83.4%
Helton 145, 82.9%
Wagner 140, 80%

______________
 

Sheffield, 129, 73.7%
Andruw Jones 126, 72.0%

[stringer bell]

The total vote is revealed next Tuesday IIRC. Mauer needs about 67.6% of the remaining vote after holding in the low 80s% so far. I wouldn’t call him a lock, but I’d guess he’ll get the second most votes. 

[Longdistancetwins]

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

You will love it.  The HOF is really cool.  Be warned, it's a small town so things will get exceedingly crowded. 

Good for you!  I live in NYC and have made the very, very long day trip—for Rodney, Kirby, Bert, and Tony and Kitty.  That’s been about 10 years apart, so I’d be breaking my streak going back so soon.  Yes, it is very, very crowded and you normally park outside the town and take shuttle buses everywhere.  Then you sit in the hot sun for hours during the ceremony.  It is fun, though, meeting fans from everywhere.

[stringer bell]

On 12/20/2023 at 6:29 PM, Roaddog said:

I'm a little surprised Wagner isn't doing better.

He'll make it next year. 

[nicksaviking]

57 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

He'll make it next year. 

I'm surprised too, but this is a really strong year. Maybe not at the top, but lot's of guys who'll likely get in eventually. With that many options, relievers probably get the short end of the stick when it comes to consideration.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm surprised too, but this is a really strong year. Maybe not at the top, but lot's of guys who'll likely get in eventually. With that many options, relievers probably get the short end of the stick when it comes to consideration.

I'm baffled that anyone would vote for Wagner instead of a superior pitcher like Mark Buehrle or Andy Pettitte.

[nicksaviking]

28 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I'm baffled that anyone would vote for Wagner instead of a superior pitcher like Mark Buehrle or Andy Pettitte.

I mean isn't that like saying you'd be baffled by anyone voting for Mauer instead of superior hitters? It's all about their roles on the roster.

Plus, I don't know why Pettite would be the PED user that gets in over Clemmons or Bonds or the rest of that crew.

[DJL44]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I mean isn't that like saying you'd be baffled by anyone voting for Mauer instead of superior hitters? It's all about their roles on the roster.

Buehrle and Wagner play the same position, though Buehrle had a role that was much more difficult.

There are several players on the ballot who are better picks than Mauer for the Hall of Fame but they're all deserving. There are well over one hundred pitchers who are better picks than Wagner for the Hall of Fame, many of them undeserving. Wagner is 379th in career strikeouts, for example.

[nicksaviking]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Buehrle and Wagner play the same position, though Buehrle had a role that was much more difficult.

There are several players on the ballot who are better picks than Mauer for the Hall of Fame but they're all deserving. There are well over one hundred pitchers who are better picks than Wagner for the Hall of Fame, many of them undeserving. Wagner is 379th in career strikeouts, for example.

I don't think you'll get much agreement that relievers and starters are the same players. Mariano Rivera wouldn't even be worthy in that case.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think you'll get much agreement that relievers and starters are the same players. Mariano Rivera wouldn't even be worthy in that case.

Unless you add in his postseason accomplishments, I probably wouldn't support Rivera's candidacy.

Starters and relievers are both pitchers. Starters have a much more difficult role. Relievers get the job because they can't get through a lineup more than once. Why would we reward the person who couldn't do the job as well as a starting pitcher with a Hall of Fame plaque?

[danielp19653]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Unless you add in his postseason accomplishments, I probably wouldn't support Rivera's candidacy.

Starters and relievers are both pitchers. Starters have a much more difficult role. Relievers get the job because they can't get through a lineup more than once. Why would we reward the person who couldn't do the job as well as a starting pitcher with a Hall of Fame plaque?

I just don't think that's a good argument, why vote for any LF or RFs then? They should have stuck to CF if they wanted in that's where the value is. Why vote for a 2B or 3B, they obviously couldn't cut it at SS. Sure a lot of relievers were starters first but its not like every starter who converts magically finds success and is a good reliever. The preparation and in game situations are drastically different. Way fewer pinch hitters and pressure situations in the first 6 innings compared to the last three. You also have very little structure instead of having the entire day knowing at 6:15 you start your work every fifth day you have to be able to get warm and beat the best hitters on the other team in a very short amount of time. Not saying relievers shouldn't have a higher bar of entry than starters and it probably makes sense for 15 starters to get in before a reliever but they still are incredibly important to team success and should be recognized when they're among the best in history at what they did.

[August J Gloop]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Unless you add in his postseason accomplishments, I probably wouldn't support Rivera's candidacy.

 

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, danielp19653 said:

I just don't think that's a good argument, why vote for any LF or RFs then? They should have stuck to CF if they wanted in that's where the value is. Why vote for a 2B or 3B, they obviously couldn't cut it at SS. 

That's pretty obvious. You would elect them because they contributed enough with the bat to make up for the lesser defensive responsibilities. That's why Mauer wouldn't get elected if he spent his entire career at 1B but as a C he meets the standards.

Quote

Not saying relievers shouldn't have a higher bar of entry than starters and it probably makes sense for 15 starters to get in before a reliever

30:1 would be a better ratio. That would put a shutdown reliever on par with a #2 starter. The Hall elects #2 starters if they have really long careers (see Jim Kaat).

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That's pretty obvious. You would elect them because they contributed enough with the bat to make up for the lesser defensive responsibilities. That's why Mauer wouldn't get elected if he spent his entire career at 1B but as a C he meets the standards.

Isn't the obvious response that Rivera contributed enough from the pen to make up for it being the lesser of the pitching responsibilities? If you're categorizing both relievers and starters as "pitchers" you can't separate the different roles positions players have but have to categorize them all as "position players." 1B and C are both position players but you have to meet different standards for each role just like SP and RP are both pitchers but you have to meet different standards for each role.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Isn't the obvious response that Rivera contributed enough from the pen to make up for it being the lesser of the pitching responsibilities?

Perhaps. Rivera's WAR and WAA compares to some starting pitchers that have been elected. Billy Wagner is about half the pitcher Rivera was. Wagner CLEARLY did not contribute enough from the bullpen to make up for the lower responsibilities. A WAR of 28 with a WAA of 16.5 is pathetic compared to the best starting pitchers of this era. Johan Santana falling off the ballot while Billy Wagner is on the cusp of election is a ridiculous joke.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Perhaps. Rivera's WAR and WAA compares to some starting pitchers that have been elected. Billy Wagner is about half the pitcher Rivera was. Wagner CLEARLY did not contribute enough from the bullpen to make up for the lower responsibilities. A WAR of 28 with a WAA of 16.5 is pathetic compared to the best starting pitchers of this era. Johan Santana falling off the ballot while Billy Wagner is on the cusp of election is a ridiculous joke.

Yeah, I wouldn't vote for Wagner. Just saying there should be a path to relievers going in. But agree the standards should be very high.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Just saying there should be a path to relievers going in. But agree the standards should be very high.

Wilhelm & Rivera. I get iffy about Gossage. The rest of them are mistakes of varying degree. We don't need to make more mistakes by lowering the bar to elect guys like Wagner.

[jorgenswest]

… and back to Mauer.

Joe Posnanski writes about Mauer and this era of catchers in his free Friday article today.

https://joeblogs.joeposnanski.com/p/free-friday-lets-talk-hall-of-fame?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

That's pretty obvious. You would elect them because they contributed enough with the bat to make up for the lesser defensive responsibilities. That's why Mauer wouldn't get elected if he spent his entire career at 1B but as a C he meets the standards.

30:1 would be a better ratio. That would put a shutdown reliever on par with a #2 starter. The Hall elects #2 starters if they have really long careers (see Jim Kaat).

30:1? 
 

Even if you’re going strictly off of innings pitched, it’s like 3:1, 4:1 max. And relievers get in less than that already. 

[kydoty]

With one day to go, we now know exactly 50% of the ballots.

Beltre 99.0%
Mauer 82.9%
Helton 82.4%
Wagner 78.2%
Sheffield 74.6%
Jones 70.5%
 

According to the people who monitor the stuff year in and year out, most players at the top will have some degree of drop off once the announcement is made.  Amongst the batch of unrevealed ballots are typically the writers who believe in the small hall philosophy as well as the blank ballots.  No revealed ballots so far have been blank, and I think only a couple ballots have had only two players.

 

So right now the only player certain to get in is Beltre, with Mauer’s chances being very very good but not a lock.  They aren’t too bullish on Helton making it because there still are some writers out there who haven’t revealed their ballots yet and did not vote for Helton last year, so he’s basically a coin flip. Wagner, Sheffield and Jones will probably fall short again.

[DJL44]

Beltran is the big gainer this year which means he was getting a lot of "not on the first ballot" last year.

[kydoty]

He was never prosecuted for domestic violence because he threatened his wife with financial ruin should she follow through with filing the charges, Bob.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/01/22/baseball-hall-of-fame-voting-mlb/72305084007/

 

[2wins87]

6 hours ago, kydoty said:

So right now the only player certain to get in is Beltre, with Mauer’s chances being very very good but not a lock.  They aren’t too bullish on Helton making it because there still are some writers out there who haven’t revealed their ballots yet and did not vote for Helton last year, so he’s basically a coin flip. Wagner, Sheffield and Jones will probably fall short again.

My math on Helton right now:

He missed election by 11 votes last year, with 281 votes vs 292 needed of 389 total ballots.  However, this year the estimate is that there will be 384 ballots and the threshold for election will be 288 votes.  If this is accurate, Helton only has to pick up a net of 7 votes.

Currently he has picked up 2 votes from returning voters, and 13 from new voters/returning voters who didn't submit last year, for 15 total.  Of course, if the total voting pool does go down to 384, that means there would have to be 20 voters losing eligibility/not submitting.  If Helton was on 8 or fewer of those 20 ballots, he would be at the net +7 ballots that he is estimated to need.  Given what we know about the older voters that haven't covered baseball in 10 years tend to vote, it would not be at all surprising if Helton was on fewer than 40% of their ballots.  That also assumes that he is at net 0 on the remaining unrevealed ballots.  I still think he picks up a couple votes among those voters, making the math even easier for him.

Of course if the estimates for the voting pool are off the math changes a little, but I think coin flip is close to right, and I would put his odds as a little better than that.

All indications are that Mauer will finish ahead of Helton.  I agree that his election is very likely, though of course the unrevealed voting pool can sometimes be weird.

[AlwaysinModeration]

200 votes cast, announcement tomorrow.  

Beltre, 198 votes, 99.0%
Mauer, 167 votes, 83.5%
Helton, 164 votes, 82.0%
Wagner, 156 votes, 78%
Sheffield, 150 votes, 75%

What started out as a real long shot is getting close to a reality—Joe Mauer will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.  He had many things going for him that people underestimated: played for only one club, played for his hometown, pristine character, unique achievements (3 batting titles as a catcher), plus he was on a ballot that wasn’t too crowded and didn’t have a lot of big-name newcomers—Ichiro helped him out by playing the opening series in Japan of the next year after Mauer retired, thus pushing his eligibility back a year.  Even his flaws have “aged” better; his post-concussion drop-off is probably more accepted today than in years past, and his lack of power is accepted more in the post-steroid era.
 

 

[D. Hocking]

11 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

 Even his flaws have “aged” better; his post-concussion drop-off is probably more accepted today than in years past, and his lack of power is accepted more in the post-steroid era.
 

 

His concussion years always kind of get lumped together, but I wonder if the voters noticed how he got better the further he got from the concussion, highlighting how much it did mess him up.  2014- 15 were kind of the bottom, 2016 you could sense some improvement, and 2017 he batted over 300 for the first time since the concussion (and he developed into an excellent first baseman).  The concussion he had in 2018 set him back again, but when some time passed, he finished the season pretty strong.

I always thought it was kind of funny, for someone who is so uncontroversial in almost every way -- he inspires such strong reactions on both ends of the spectrum.  In some ways he is both an underrated and overrated player.  Hopefully, tomorrow the people complaining will be the end of the spectrum that does not think he should be part of the hall.

Semi-related, he has had some nice press with the children's book that Joe Schmidt wrote.

[stringer bell]

Really interesting discussion on Mauer. I do hope Mauer makes the Hall on his first ballot and adds to the St. Paul guys already there. I think the final vote will be decided by 5 votes one way or the other. Helton is only three votes behind Mauer and he is only two votes better than last year. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, D. Hocking said:

Semi-related, he has had some nice press with the children's book that Joe Schmidt wrote.

I grew up reading baseball biographies. It was pretty much a guarantee that a hall of famer would have a biography in the library. I can't imagine anyone writing an adult biography of Joe Mauer. It would be a terribly boring book. A children's book is a much better fit.

Could be worse - Frank Thomas got a cookbook when he was inducted.

The Big Hurt's Guide to BBQ and Grilling: Recipes from My Backyard to Yours: Thomas, Frank: 9781629372297: Amazon.com: Books

[PseudoSABR]

Mauer gets elected!