Should the Twins Trade Brooks Lee for a Top-Tier Starting Pitcher?

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How often do you see a team trade their top prospect or 2nd best prospect.  It's rare.  Your opinion is supported by a lot of history.

It happens. This is from an article on MLB.com about a week ago, about 'stars who were traded as top prospects.' Note it only included players who have already gotten to at least 15 WAR in the MLBs, so that is why there isn't anybody after 2015, and no doubt there are others who did not perform up to that standard at the MLB level:

Dansby Swanson: AZ to ATL, December 2015
Trea Turner: SD to WSH, June 2015
Anthony Rizzo: SD to CHC, January 2012
Carlos Carrasco: PHI to CLE, July 2009
Gio González: CHW to OAK, January 2008
Elvis Andrus: ATL to TEX, July 2007
Hanley Ramírez: BOS to MIA, November 2005
Scott Kazmir: NYM to TB, July 2004
Adam Wainwright: ATL to STL, December 2003
Kenny Lofton: HOU to CLE, December 1991
Moises Alou: PIT to MON, August 1990

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

Seattle will not trade Gilbert for Lee.  That would be like us trading Pablo to the whiteys for their SS prospect that is ranked 1 spot ahead of Lee and right behind Jenkins. The Whiteys also wouldn’t do that trade cause they just let Tim Anderson walk. 

Your argument sounds reasonable and Seattle might want Lewis or a player like Jax or Kepler added to Lee. I don't know what Seattle is thinking. 

The comparison of Colson Montgomery and the White Sox doesn't make sense though because the Twins are not rebuilding in any fashion, have no position for the kid any time soon, he is not as good as Brooks Lee, and the Twins are in search for a strong starting pitcher which more or less forces them to consider all of their options right now. Meanwhile, the White Sox suck but have added impressively by trading away players. They will be on the rise in a couple of years.

The entire discussion of how the Twins can possibly add a pitcher is at the very least interesting. Great thoughts all around and yes it would be terrific to see all of Lee, Lewis, and Julien suit up as Twins in All Star games. The only thing we can be sure of .... you just never know.

[Fatbat]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Your argument sounds reasonable and Seattle might want Lewis or a player like Jax or Kepler added to Lee. I don't know what Seattle is thinking. 

The comparison of Colson Montgomery and the White Sox doesn't make sense though because the Twins are not rebuilding in any fashion, have no position for the kid any time soon, he is not as good as Brooks Lee, and the Twins are in search for a strong starting pitcher which more or less forces them to consider all of their options right now. Meanwhile, the White Sox suck but have added impressively by trading away players. They will be on the rise in a couple of years.

The entire discussion of how the Twins can possibly add a pitcher is at the very least interesting. Great thoughts all around and yes it would be terrific to see all of Lee, Lewis, and Julien suit up as Twins in All Star games. The only thing we can be sure of .... you just never know.

I super dislike comparing minor leaguers but I did because CM is ranked 17th, Lee 18th. Chicago is hoping he is their starting SS in April and I brought that up because they did burn it down somewhat and I don’t want the Twins to ever do that. I believe that Lee and CM will be compared for years by people because of the rivalry and their careers starting at roughly the same time.  Rankings are comparisons and it’s inevitable but yuck. 
the Twins right now seem to be a better organization than many and we really have to be because of our small market. I just can’t wrap my head around what an “expert” claims is someones value as compared to another. Way to many variables which I believe is why top prospects don’t get traded. Trading lottery picks and established major leaguers makes much more sense. 

[Doctor Evil]

I would be fine with filtering off some of the vets and allowing a prétty good farm system kick out some prospects for a look see. I'm not in favor of dealing prospects like Lee or Julian as some suggest. There is no attainable SP that would put this squad over the hump.

[DocBauer]

A short answer given in a long post because there's a lot to unravel here. And a lot of good, honest discussion to be sure!

1] I think Jenkins is the only true untouchable. But I think Lee and E Rodriguez are pretty close to locks as well. 

2] We compare ML players. We compare prospects to ML players. We compare prospects to other prospects. It's natural and logical to do in regard to perspective. But it's not really fair, often, at the end of the day as every single player is unique unto themselves. That being said, fair or not, it's natural to compare Julien and Lee as hitters as they share a lot of similar upside talent and potential, while also being quite different in other ways. But it's fruitless to compare a 1yr older player with 2 full milb seasons, plus a month or so, to a 1yr younger player with 1 full milb season, plus a couple of months. 

I STRONGLY dislike any sort of "negative" comment about Lee "never" reaching an OPS of .850 or higher in his very short pro career of 1yr and 2 months. SF Twins Fan did a WONDERFUL and REVEALING post earlier in the comments that clearly showed that Lee...as you would/should expect...hit at an average level initially at each and every level in his BRIEF career before performing AT, or above, said .850 level before moving to the next level and repeating the process. That's called promotion and DEVELOPMENT. Was he supposed to produce an .850 OPS IMMEDIATELY at each level the moment he arrived as a veritable rookie at the pro level??? He's done EXACTLY what you would want from a young prospect, get better and better at each level when promoted.

3] I think it's harder to find quality INF talent than OF talent. Martin should be able to play some 2B and 3B...his primary college positions...but is almost certainly a primary OF at the ML level. Wallner has arrived, the jury is still out on Larnach. Rosario and Rodriguez are good/great OF prospects. Mercedes and J Rodriguez are further away to be sure, but very talented young OF prospects. Even guys like Schoebel and Keaschall might slide to the OF at some point. But an OF prospect doesn't usually move to the INF. Farmer, if kept, is almost certainly gone after 2024. Polanco, if kept, might also be gone after 2024 as well, despite having an affordable 2025 contract. So the idea of LONG TERM depth is an illusion. 

Again, I dispute the whole idea of a top 20 MLB prospect who has done very well so far, if not great, simply because he hasn't had some magical OPS number AT EACH LEVEL on a rapid ascent through the system. That is so blindly illogical as to be nonsense. (I don't mean any disrespect). And I could care less about a Lee and Lewis debate as to who should be at 3B or 2B. It will work out. And please, there's plenty of room for Julien at 1B/2B/DH, assuming all are still kept.

I would NOT trade Lee unless you were presented with a deal that you couldn't turn down. He's just so damn potentially very good, if not great, that it would have to be a 25-27yo arm with 3yrs of control left, that figures to fit at the top of the rotation.

Honestly...and I'll probably get pushback on this...I would rather move the very talented Rodriguez...super high ceiling but low floor...over Lee if presented with a potentially stud young arm. It might be a regret down the road, but it would be the safer, and potentially smarter move.

Immediate, and long return, some combination of Polanco, Kepler, Camargo, Festa, Miranda, Larnach, Severino, Mercedes, and others are quality options for a team needing offense, or prospects, or a combination of both, to add ONE good young arm for the Twins. Gray cost Petty. Lopez cost Arraez. The Twins shouldn't have to wipe out their top 5 prospect list to add a solid arm with as much talent and available options as they have. 

If the market is that crazy, then maybe maybe a Miley, or Wacha, or similar on a 1yr is the better option. You add veteran quality and depth, and still have dry powder to make a deal later on if needed/wanted. Honestly not sure at the time of posting what Gilbert's contract is, or his control. But if the Mariners ring the phone tomorrow and ask for Lee and a lower level prospect for Gilbert, you not only answer, but you think about it, for example purposes only. 

While the Mahle trade sticks in collective teeth for a trade that turned out wrong, the moves for Maeda, Gray, and Lopez were great. And the total cost vs reward is still very much in the Twins favor. 

Let's see how things turn out. But I ABSOLUTELY don't move Lee unless it's just too good of a deal to pass up.

 

[JD-TWINS]

11 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you kidding?  We would be in much better shape had they not invested so heavily in a team that was not even close to being a real contender.

CES would be the starting 1B.  He started off a little slow but he was already a beast the last 6 weeks of the season.  He could be an elite hitter.  Kirilloff would play both OF and 1B.  CES would play 1B/DH and could also cover 3B when Lewis is out, has a day-off or covers SS when Correa is out.  CES would look great on this roster.  Steer takes Farmer's spot or even Polanco's spot.  He is a much better hitter than Farmer and he can play in the OF,  Farmer's 6.6M or Polanco's $10.5M goes toward a RP or part of the investment in a SP.  The two of them would fit here exceptionally well right now.

I live in Cincinnati & McClean/Steer/DeLaCruz all defer to CES as the best hitter of the group………he would fill in just as you say 1B/3B/DH……mostly 1B.

Steer would play LF & some 2B & 3B if needed. He had a really consistent season!

They’re gone - gotta move on and hope for good things from Lee & Martin.

[tfbw]

13 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Lee is a keeper, with his bat & glove he's a future All-Star. There's very little doubt being so close to the MLB. You don't trade someone like that. There's no doubt that Julien bat is for real but his glove is less than desireable. Julien makes much more sense eventhough his value is less. yet he can land a Lopez type SP on his own which is perfect.

I am curious which "Lopez type SP"  for Julien is an even up trade?

[JD-TWINS]

9 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

A short answer given in a long post because there's a lot to unravel here. And a lot of good, honest discussion to be sure!

1] I think Jenkins is the only true untouchable. But I think Lee and E Rodriguez are pretty close to locks as well. 

2] We compare ML players. We compare prospects to ML players. We compare prospects to other prospects. It's natural and logical to do in regard to perspective. But it's not really fair, often, at the end of the day as every single player is unique unto themselves. That being said, fair or not, it's natural to compare Julien and Lee as hitters as they share a lot of similar upside talent and potential, while also being quite different in other ways. But it's fruitless to compare a 1yr older player with 2 full milb seasons, plus a month or so, to a 1yr younger player with 1 full milb season, plus a couple of months. 

I STRONGLY dislike any sort of "negative" comment about Lee "never" reaching an OPS of .850 or higher in his very short pro career of 1yr and 2 months. SF Twins Fan did a WONDERFUL and REVEALING post earlier in the comments that clearly showed that Lee...as you would/should expect...hit at an average level initially at each and every level in his BRIEF career before performing AT, or above, said .850 level before moving to the next level and repeating the process. That's called promotion and DEVELOPMENT. Was he supposed to produce an .850 OPS IMMEDIATELY at each level the moment he arrived as a veritable rookie at the pro level??? He's done EXACTLY what you would want from a young prospect, get better and better at each level when promoted.

3] I think it's harder to find quality INF talent than OF talent. Martin should be able to play some 2B and 3B...his primary college positions...but is almost certainly a primary OF at the ML level. Wallner has arrived, the jury is still out on Larnach. Rosario and Rodriguez are good/great OF prospects. Mercedes and J Rodriguez are further away to be sure, but very talented young OF prospects. Even guys like Schoebel and Keaschall might slide to the OF at some point. But an OF prospect doesn't usually move to the INF. Farmer, if kept, is almost certainly gone after 2024. Polanco, if kept, might also be gone after 2024 as well, despite having an affordable 2025 contract. So the idea of LONG TERM depth is an illusion. 

Again, I dispute the whole idea of a top 20 MLB prospect who has done very well so far, if not great, simply because he hasn't had some magical OPS number AT EACH LEVEL on a rapid ascent through the system. That is so blindly illogical as to be nonsense. (I don't mean any disrespect). And I could care less about a Lee and Lewis debate as to who should be at 3B or 2B. It will work out. And please, there's plenty of room for Julien at 1B/2B/DH, assuming all are still kept.

I would NOT trade Lee unless you were presented with a deal that you couldn't turn down. He's just so damn potentially very good, if not great, that it would have to be a 25-27yo arm with 3yrs of control left, that figures to fit at the top of the rotation.

Honestly...and I'll probably get pushback on this...I would rather move the very talented Rodriguez...super high ceiling but low floor...over Lee if presented with a potentially stud young arm. It might be a regret down the road, but it would be the safer, and potentially smarter move.

Immediate, and long return, some combination of Polanco, Kepler, Camargo, Festa, Miranda, Larnach, Severino, Mercedes, and others are quality options for a team needing offense, or prospects, or a combination of both, to add ONE good young arm for the Twins. Gray cost Petty. Lopez cost Arraez. The Twins shouldn't have to wipe out their top 5 prospect list to add a solid arm with as much talent and available options as they have. 

If the market is that crazy, then maybe maybe a Miley, or Wacha, or similar on a 1yr is the better option. You add veteran quality and depth, and still have dry powder to make a deal later on if needed/wanted. Honestly not sure at the time of posting what Gilbert's contract is, or his control. But if the Mariners ring the phone tomorrow and ask for Lee and a lower level prospect for Gilbert, you not only answer, but you think about it, for example purposes only. 

While the Mahle trade sticks in collective teeth for a trade that turned out wrong, the moves for Maeda, Gray, and Lopez were great. And the total cost vs reward is still very much in the Twins favor. 

Let's see how things turn out. But I ABSOLUTELY don't move Lee unless it's just too good of a deal to pass up.

 

Agreed - If Gilbert has 3 years or more of control then you have to do a deal - he’s too good to pass on. Just don’t see that as real though. 

[DocBauer]

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agreed - If Gilbert has 3 years or more of control then you have to do a deal - he’s too good to pass on. Just don’t see that as real though. 

Agreed. I only used him as an example. 

You are then accepting you moved a potential All Star prospect for that arm, and banking on what you have, what's still coming up, and future draft picks and trades. 

To be clear, the loss of ONE top 20 MLB prospect doesn't mean decimation to an organization. It just means you better get back something of real value. It's why I again say, Lee is ALMOST untouchable, but is still on the edge of the table.

[DocBauer]

16 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I live in Cincinnati & McClean/Steer/DeLaCruz all defer to CES as the best hitter of the group………he would fill in just as you say 1B/3B/DH……mostly 1B.

Steer would play LF & some 2B & 3B if needed. He had a really consistent season!

They’re gone - gotta move on and hope for good things from Lee & Martin.

Honestly, if Mahle didn't have his shoulder issues, he would be part of the Twins rotation in 2024. As far as I know and understand the human body and injury, a tired arm and a sore shoulder should not be part of an elbow and TJ. But maybe the shoulder issue was compensating for an elbow ready to give out???

No medical expert, but if that's the case, I don't see how the Reds or Twins could have expected that.

It wasn't a dumb trade based on what was known at the time. Might have even been a win for the Twins ultimately. I do wonder, when smoke and dust settle, if the Twins might still approach Mahle with a Pineda type of deal where he gets paid a couple $M to rehab, with a 2025 deal with incentives. Could be smart for both sides. And there is presidence.

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Honestly, if Mahle didn't have his shoulder issues, he would be part of the Twins rotation in 2024. As far as I know and understand the human body and injury, a tired arm and a sore shoulder should not be part of an elbow and TJ. But maybe the shoulder issue was compensating for an elbow ready to give out???

No medical expert, but if that's the case, I don't see how the Reds or Twins could have expected that.

It wasn't a dumb trade based on what was known at the time. Might have even been a win for the Twins ultimately. I do wonder, when smoke and dust settle, if the Twins might still approach Mahle with a Pineda type of deal where he gets paid a couple $M to rehab, with a 2025 deal with incentives. Could be smart for both sides. And there is presidence.

The thing I did not like about the Mahle trade was that he was already being watched for shoulder problems, which when serious are mostly the end for a pitcher. Mahle went down in the spring with an elbow problem (TJ) but the shoulder issue was still not totally settled. The other thing that bothered me about that trade was giving up CES. Normally I want to stay away from dudes who are not multi-athletic and fast, but I couldn't help but tune into (milb.com) as many Cedar Rapids and Wichita games as possible when CES was batting. He just is such a good hitter and learned so quickly. 

Logan Gilbert is a free agent after the 2027 season, so there are four seasons left of contract control. I will spare all of the details - he is very good. Kirby is rated higher but I prefer Gilbert.

I'm real big on all of Lewis, Julien, and Lee. I'm wondering what is a possibility for acquiring Gilbert. He may not be available but Seattle has one guy pestering them because he wants to play in Seattle (Snell) and Seattle has their eyes on another guy, Yamamoto. There is a chance to obtain a Seattle guy. What is the cost? If the Twins cannot sign a free agent like Yamamoto, which apparently they won't, a trade is their next  avenue. I am more bullish on Louie Varland David Festa than most, but feel the Twins need a pitcher to replace Sonny Gray. 

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

It happens. This is from an article on MLB.com about a week ago, about 'stars who were traded as top prospects.' Note it only included players who have already gotten to at least 15 WAR in the MLBs, so that is why there isn't anybody after 2015, and no doubt there are others who did not perform up to that standard at the MLB level:

Dansby Swanson: AZ to ATL, December 2015
Trea Turner: SD to WSH, June 2015
Anthony Rizzo: SD to CHC, January 2012
Carlos Carrasco: PHI to CLE, July 2009
Gio González: CHW to OAK, January 2008
Elvis Andrus: ATL to TEX, July 2007
Hanley Ramírez: BOS to MIA, November 2005
Scott Kazmir: NYM to TB, July 2004
Adam Wainwright: ATL to STL, December 2003
Kenny Lofton: HOU to CLE, December 1991
Moises Alou: PIT to MON, August 1990

Thanks for the list.  I would say that 11 in 25 years would qualify is an unusual occurrence or we can look at it as a percentage of all trades where this is a tiny percentage.  I would have guessed one every 2-3 years.  It would be interesting to know what others have occurred since 2015 because it seems teams have become more reluctant to trade these top prospects. 

[arby58]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Thanks for the list.  I would say that 11 in 25 years would qualify is an unusual occurrence or we can look at it as a percentage of all trades where this is a tiny percentage.  I would have guessed one every 2-3 years.  It would be interesting to know what others have occurred since 2015 because it seems teams have become more reluctant to trade these top prospects. 

I would wonder what is the basis for the 'teams have become more reluctant to trade these top prospects?' Any analytics behind that or just a SWAG?

[arby58]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I live in Cincinnati & McClean/Steer/DeLaCruz all defer to CES as the best hitter of the group………he would fill in just as you say 1B/3B/DH……mostly 1B.

Steer would play LF & some 2B & 3B if needed. He had a really consistent season!

They’re gone - gotta move on and hope for good things from Lee & Martin.

Steer is the guy most people look at. He had a nice year. He had a full season (582 AB) so 3.0 WAR. His OPS was .820. There really isn't anything statistically where he graded out better than the twins rookies Lewis and Julien - they both had higher OPS. In far fewer at bats, Lewis had a 2.4 WAR and Julian 2.6 with more than 300 and 200 fewer at bats respectively.

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, tfbw said:

I am curious which "Lopez type SP"  for Julien is an even up trade?

According to BTV Arraez's trade value was 26.5 during the Lopez trade and Julien is at 34.6 that was my point. So you need to search who needs a 2B man. Woo or Miller would fit that Arraez range but I'd shoot a little higher or get something more in return. 

[Fatbat]

20 hours ago, SF Twins Fan said:

I don't believe any prospect, other than Jenkins, should be untouchable but the Twins would have to be blown away to trade a player like Lee.  I'm talking a pitcher with more upside than Lopez and more years under team control.  He's going to be a multiple time all-star.  He'll likely be an above average defender and hitter that has intangibles like situational awareness you get by growing up with a coach as a father.  His value should be a lot higher than Arreaz since he's younger, much healthier, faster, better arm, and should hit for both average and power.  

Supposedly his trade value right now is higher than Arraez per some guy that supposedly knows baseball.  Ok , so I will go with that.  Better trade value than an allstar/2 time batting champ. He has flown thru the minor leagues and is going to be invited to MLB spring training in his 2nd spring in pro ball. Thats pretty 🤩 impressive.  
If you were a FO that drafted him #8, have a #6 ranked MLB roster with just a couple holes to fill… largest being a pitcher that has to win you games in October, would you not keep this future foundational piece? Wouldn’t you clear a path for him to be one of the faces of your franchise?  
No FO is trading away that kind of guy when they have so many other assets that can be used fill that need. 
Ownership says win cheaply. FO gets lucky twice in consecutive years by drafting guys that should have been gone before they pick. FO guy has learned from the Cavaco pick and the Mahle trade and still has #6 ranked MLB roster.   Lucky FO guy can’t possibly trade away his best future assets but he can plug and play them. Build around them. Win 🏆 Championships, build a dynasty. 
 

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, arby58 said:

I would wonder what is the basis for the 'teams have become more reluctant to trade these top prospects?' Any analytics behind that or just a SWAG?

I listen to a lot of MLB network while I am driving.  They have some former GMs and industry reporters in various forms.  The topic of reluctance to move top prospects is mentioned often in the course of these discussions.  It's become commonly accepted that teams are reluctant to move top prospects.

Of course, we have all heard much discussion about the new breed of GMs that focus on acquisition and development of prospects.  This new breed had a more sophisticated understanding of asset management and they are more focused on sustained success.  Assets with 7 years of (inexpensive) control are more likely to facilitate these goals.  Trading 7 year assets for 2 year assets does not promote sustained success.  It is a strategy that concentrates assets all-in for a short period.  Many fans like this approach but the expectation of GMs today is to deliver sustained success.

I am sure they have developed various analytical models to help understand how playoff teams have acquired their top producing players.  I put together my own model using Fangraphs and BB Reference by taking the top teams in a given year and ranking the players by WAR and organizing them by acquisition method.  I did this specifically for teams outside the top 10 in revenue because I was interested in what practices would be most effective for the Twins or teams with similar revenue constraints.  Players acquired as prospects or before establishing a WAR above 1.5 by far outweighed players that were acquired as established players.  If I did this for fun, you can bet teams have put forth significant effort to develop models that help them understand how to manage their assets.  

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, arby58 said:

Steer is the guy most people look at. He had a nice year. He had a full season (582 AB) so 3.0 WAR. His OPS was .820. There really isn't anything statistically where he graded out better than the twins rookies Lewis and Julien - they both had higher OPS. In far fewer at bats, Lewis had a 2.4 WAR and Julian 2.6 with more than 300 and 200 fewer at bats respectively.

Am certainly not trying to promote Steer as better than either Lewis or Julien at the plate……he’s far superior to Julien playing 3-4 positions though. I think most observers believe it’s more difficult to have good numbers over the 580 AB’s than 250 or 350 as is the case for the Twin’s rookies. 

[Heiny]

16 hours ago, arby58 said:

There is evidence that Julien improved his defense as the year went on, and the Twins weren't 'hiding' him at DH - he played 75 at 2B versus 27 at DH. The point about Lee's hitting is valid - he's not been above .850 OPS at ANY level of professional baseball, while Julien was .839 at the MLB level last year. I'm taking the bird in the hand and shopping Lee.

My problem with this take is that Lee has had just "ONE FULL SEASON OF PRO BALL".  Who are we kidding?  This kid certainly deserves a little more time to prove or disprove who and what he is and can become.  My personal confidence in Lee is extremely high.  I say no to trading him or Jenkins or Lewis.  If that is the only way to get pitching, then I say we do nothing.  But, that is not the only way.  So figure out something else.

[Dennesey55347]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

by ugly you mean tenth in all of baseball after the July 1 this last year in runs scored? That's when they committed to the younger players that they clearly haven't developed.

I was referring to individual performance metrics. Enlighten me on a single player who put up excellent hits, runs, RBI's, HR, OBP, WAR, OPS, etc. totals? 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Dennesey55347 said:

I was referring to individual performance metrics. Enlighten me on a single player who put up excellent hits, runs, RBI's, HR, OBP, WAR, OPS, etc. totals? 

Well, Lewis, of course. 2.4 WAR in 217 at bats. 15 HRs in 40 percent of a full season's at bats. .309 batting average, .921 OPS, 150 OPS+. Those are all star caliber numbers.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Am certainly not trying to promote Steer as better than either Lewis or Julien at the plate……he’s far superior to Julien playing 3-4 positions though. I think most observers believe it’s more difficult to have good numbers over the 580 AB’s than 250 or 350 as is the case for the Twin’s rookies. 

It depends. Julien wasn't tailing off as the year went on, which would be the case if the league was catching up to the player. Lewis, sure - but the numbers were so good over the timeframe that it's hard to say an .820 OPS is better than his .921 and 150 OPS because he did it over a full season.

Bottom line - there is no way in Hades the Twins would trade Lewis for Steer straight up, and I doubt they would Julien for him either. 

[arby58]

18 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Thanks for the list.  I would say that 11 in 25 years would qualify is an unusual occurrence or we can look at it as a percentage of all trades where this is a tiny percentage.  I would have guessed one every 2-3 years.  It would be interesting to know what others have occurred since 2015 because it seems teams have become more reluctant to trade these top prospects. 

Except it is not 11 in 25 years - these are the ones that have graded out as stars (WAR-wise) after being traded. There are, no doubt, at least as many who never made it to that level. it is far from rare (your original word) and I suspect also not unusual.

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Except it is not 11 in 25 years - these are the ones that have graded out as stars (WAR-wise) after being traded. There are, no doubt, at least as many who never made it to that level. it is far from rare (your original word) and I suspect also not unusual.

I guess we just have different interpretations of rare.  One a year among 30 teams to me is rare.  At that rate a team would be expected to complete such a trade every 30 years.  To me that's rare and I think it's becoming even more rare.  Then, how many are completed by teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue which is the appropriate measure when asking how often does a team like the Twins trade away their top prospect.  Also, that article was not specifically about a team's top prospect.  Some of those guys were outside the top 50 which I would agree is a significant prospect but also not the same as a top 25 type guy like Swanson.  Point being a top prospect that is ranked 65th is not the same as Brooks Lee.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Dennesey55347 said:

I was referring to individual performance metrics. Enlighten me on a single player who put up excellent hits, runs, RBI's, HR, OBP, WAR, OPS, etc. totals? 

Wallner put up 1.5 fwar in less than sixty games in left. Lewis, of course. Julien. Jeffers..... All young guys, all above average or elite

[arby58]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I guess we just have different interpretations of rare.  One a year among 30 teams to me is rare.  At that rate a team would be expected to complete such a trade every 30 years.  To me that's rare and I think it's becoming even more rare.  Then, how many are completed by teams in the bottom two-thirds of revenue which is the appropriate measure when asking how often does a team like the Twins trade away their top prospect.  Also, that article was not specifically about a team's top prospect.  Some of those guys were outside the top 50 which I would agree is a significant prospect but also not the same as a top 25 type guy like Swanson.  Point being a top prospect that is ranked 65th is not the same as Brooks Lee.

I'm not interested in quibbling over details, but you originally said 1 or 2 prospect - and with 30 teams, that may well be somewhere near the top 60. Is rare something that happens most every year? Because I suspect that is exactly what happens with trades of a 1 or 2 prospect. To me, that's not rare. YMMV. Have the last word, I've made my case.

[Doctor Wu]

On 12/2/2023 at 6:40 AM, Fatbat said:

I think that if you ask Varland and Festa if we need another SP, I bet they would both say “don’t sleep on us being everything the team needs in ‘24-27. They both have a ton of development and pitches to throw to prove how good they will be but I’m not gonna bet against them. The Twins do need more pitching in ‘24 but it may well come from within in 24/25. 

I think both Varland and Festa may turn out to be good additions to the rotation, but I'd feel more confident with another veteran arm at the top of the rotation this coming season. With the way the current pitching staff is constructed I don't see us having another playoff run. But hey, it's still the first week in December. Hoping for some action this week. 

[Fatbat]

@Major League Ready 1 trade per yr x 2 teams in a trade / 30 teams = 15 years… I like my trades like my steak medium rare.  Baseball and math 💀👍🏻

[Major League Ready]

7 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

@Major League Ready 1 trade per yr x 2 teams in a trade / 30 teams = 15 years… I like my trades like my steak medium rare.  Baseball and math 💀👍🏻

No.  The parameter or the point of contention is not how many teams engage in a trade.  It's how often does a team trade away a top prospect which is roughly somewhere in the neighborhood of once every 30 years. 

[Hunter McCall]

On 12/1/2023 at 10:49 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

Hunter, let's say hypothetically the Twins were talking to the Royals regarding Brady Singer. He is starting to get a bit more expensive with arbitration, and I think (hat tip to Brandon Warne) Singer could be an option for a guy that 1) Has years of control, 2) Is young, and 3) probably has another gear to achieve at the mlb level, either by tweaking his pitch mix or working with Maki and company (TM) to clean up his fastball.

I don't think he would cost Brooks Lee, but I would very much be interested if someone like Singer could be a target too.

 

Thoughts? Do you hate this idea? Would the Royals even trade him in division? I don't see him becoming a playoff level starter where he is, but an arm like him COULD get there with the Twins. 

I don't think Singer is a bad target if the Twins want to add a starter. Like you said he's young and controllable. He's also a former first round pick. If the Twins think they see something they can adjust to turn him into a viable starter I'm all for it. I think it would have to be a package without Lee, but if they wanted to piece something together I'd be all for it!