Louie Varland’s Role More Apparent After Free Agent Departures

[Cory Engelhardt]

4 minutes ago, Karbo said:

You may be right, but I don't see the Twins spending that much this winter. I figure they will pick up 1 high 4, low 3 type, but I just don't see them spending that much with all the fuss about reducing payroll.

Yeah, I expect that too, but they will "spend" players/prospects/assets in that sense to acquire instead of money on the free agent market.

For example, let's say they hypothetically add Edward Cabrera of the Marlins (this is JUST hypothetical.) They will have to trade a few decent prospects for him, right (don't worry about the player's right now, this is JUST hypothetical.) Cabrera is set to make between 800k and 1million for 2024. That number won't make a dent in the payroll, right?

IF instead they were to trade for Tyler Glasnow (who is set to earn 25 million in 2024) then that would have an affect on 2024 payroll right?

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Whole lot of offseason to go.

Fwiw the Reds signed Emilio Pagan , so the pen just got smaller.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Patzky said:

Fwiw the Reds signed Emilio Pagan , so the pen just got smaller.

Nah, I never expected him back.

 

If the pen, in my opinion, consists of Duran, Jax, Funderburk, Thielbar, Stewart and Varland, then I'd imagine they can add a long guy (or have Winder be that) and another guy right? So something like Ryne Stanek and Nick Martinez, to me, would fill out the bullpen. But there are certainly lots of other options.

 

But yeah, opening day, if the bullpen consists of that, I'd say they would have a STRONG bullpen.

[TopGunn#22]

You're exactly right Cory.  My feelings about turning Varland into a lethal bullpen weapon are clear.  I see a trade of Kepler or Polanco to Miami for Cabrera.  That fills one rotation spot.  But I could see the Twins making a trade for at least one other young and controllable SP and/or signing a mid-level FA like Severino or Giolito.  Somebody like Glasnow just seems out of their budget and too risky. 

Sonny Gray ALWAYS took the ball.  Aside from how effective he was while on the mound, he consistently took his turn in the rotation.  That can't be under-appreciated at all.  We really need 2 or 3 SP acquisitions for depth alone.  But I want Varland breathing fire in the 8th inning or high leverage situations with Stewart, Jax and Funderburk.  Pagan won't be back.  Theilbar is breaking down (his $2.9 million dollar salary is by far the highest in our pen, trade him).  

We need Varland in the pen MORE than as a 5th starter.  I get that SP's pitch more innings.  I just think 70-75 EFFECTIVE innings out of the pen is almost as valuable as 100-110 not nearly as effective innings as a 5th SP.  Using Varland as a bullpen arm doesn't "end" him as a SP.  Johan Santana began pitching for the Twins out of the BP.  Varland is not Santana, I'm just making a comparison.    

[pierre75275]

I would love Varland in the bullpen. If they could trade for a multi yr starter and sign one of Montas or Severino  with Festa and woods Richardson I like that a lot 

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Starters throw more innings. Starters throw more innings. Starters throw more innings.

Something to consider.

156 Duran 

145 Gray

139 Jax

121 Lopez

Those are the top 4 in high leverage batters faced. The fifth through tenth range 49 to 69.

Ryan, Ober, Pagán, Jorge Lopez, Thielbar, Maeda

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

I have difficulty seeing them move Varland to the bullpen unless they believe he only has 2 pitches that are MLB ready. We do not have a great deal of depth in SPs on the farm.

On the other hand he could be effective in the bullpen NOW and he is soon to be 26 years old.

Man, I love baseball. Sure wish I knew more about it.

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

I have difficulty seeing them move Varland to the bullpen unless they believe he only has 2 pitches that are MLB ready. We do not have a great deal of depth in SPs on the farm.

On the other hand he could be effective in the bullpen NOW and he is soon to be 26 years old.

Man, I love baseball. Sure wish I knew more about it.

I never meant to say he ONLY has 2 pitches. I just think if he were to go to the bullpen and ONLY throw his 2 best pitches (cutter being one of them) he is probably more effective than using 3 pitches in a starting role.

They are starting to show (in my opinion) quite a lot of starting depth that should begin the year at AA. Otherwise, getting more pitching is always a good thing.

[Riverbrian]

51 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Something to consider.

156 Duran 

145 Gray

139 Jax

121 Lopez

Those are the top 4 in high leverage batters faced. The fifth through tenth range 49 to 69.

Ryan, Ober, Pagán, Jorge Lopez, Thielbar, Maeda

 

That is indeed considered by me and in no way will I ever downplay the leverage importance of a capable bullpen. I have and will continue to express my desire for a solid bullpen from top to bottom and I do believe that Varland could serve wonderfully in that role. 

However... something else that needs consideration is that high leverage for Duran and Jax does not occur if the pitchers throwing the bulk of innings of whatever leverage can't get the job done. 

The more innings with zero's hung the better. The starter who throws more innings can hang more zeroes and will always be more valuable.

If Varland is moved to the pen... you have to replace him in the rotation with someone better than Varland in the rotation. Bundy (I always pick on Bundy) as a starter with Varland in the pen requires 140 innings of not decent in order to produce 60 innings of decent. I don't like that deal.  

 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Hard to guess to much in November when really, this is all a hurry up and wait right? I'd imagine the moves the Twins make won't happen until January at the earliest, or at least that's when they usually start. I just want the moves to happen NOW :)

 

But yeah, I'd guess they are talking more in the 140 range at minimum, and I personally wouldn't be shocked if they did end up at 160. So the hand-wringing, I just can't do that on 11/29. Hand-wringing over roster/payroll, for me, will happen a week before opening day.

I like the optimism. I'm too boring because I took what Falvey said as what it is. You are probably correct. Either way, I never stress even a little bit over these things. I'm just a fan.

[Cory Engelhardt]

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I like the optimism. I'm too boring because I took what Falvey said as what it is. You are probably correct. Either way, I never stress even a little bit over these things. I'm just a fan.

I mean, Falvey's direct quote was that he didn't anticipate the 2024 payroll equalling where they got to in 2023. It wasn't his quote that gave the range of 125-140. That's just an educated guess (or maybe from other sources) that Dan Hayes reported. I'm sure there is thought behind that range/guess, but that's NOT a direct quote from Falvey. Or at least, I haven't seen it that way.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

 

I think we need some sources for these quotes here before we get out the pitchforks. I don't know enough about Varland to judge his character, but Boras never speaks in such black-and-white terms, he tends to speak with the goal of keeping as many doors open as possible for his players.

I could not find the quote. I believe Boras stated something along the lines of .... Royce Lewis is going to be a superstar playing on the dirt.

Boras does a good job of talking up his clients. Actually Boras is an amazing person and his company is really incredible. He will be in the Baseball Hall of Fame eventually. 

Varland has said he loves being a starting pitcher on numerous occasions. It was more just a statement, not related to any aversion much less demands to avoid a role in the bullpen. Pretty simple really.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins made a strategic decision in September to optimize the talent in their system by directing their #6 starter to work in relief with an eye for usage in the bullpen. This was directly related to a specific need in the pen for the postseason and a reflection of the fact that there would be no need of Varland as a starting pitcher in September or in the postseason. Of course, Baldelli (and everyone else) liked how Varland competed in the pen.

If the Twins add two pitchers who slot into the rotation as #2-3 starting pitchers, Varland would be pushed back in a manner similar to what the Twins did last season with Bailey Ober. While I'm very hopeful the Twins add a replacement for Sonny Gray, I'm also ready to see Varland on the mound as a regular in the rotation of starting pitchers.

[DocBauer]

Yes, Varland might  be a real weapon in the pen. Lopez could be excellent there as well. So might Ryan. And Paddack looked really good there at the end of the season.

Not being snarky, just making the point that as much as you need a strong pen, you've got to have a rotation in front of that pen that keeps you in the game, or ahead in the game, first and foremost. 

Varland won the best pitching prospect award. He had a very nice, solid 5 game debut in 2022. His first 6 starts in 2023 were solid to excellent. He had an ERA of 3.51 and was around 8.5K per, and about 1 hit per IP. THEN, for whatever reason, he suddenly lost control over his next three starts and just wasn't the same guy. Ironically, this happened right after his best start of the season against the Astros on May 31st.

So basically, he's been a pretty good looking rotation arm, with potential, through his first 11 starts before a run of 3 bad ones. So I remain quite encouraged.

And while I believe the Twins are adding another rotation arm...how and who and what level of quality TBD...I think they'll also probably add another arm via a cheap option on a ML deal, or, a milb deal with incentives as additional depth. But I sure like Varland as the #6 guy to begin the season instead of SWR or Festa.

He can always be moved to the pen later. 

I do want a strong pen. And I do believe they're an arm short right now with Pagan gone. (Never thought I'd say that). I have hopes for Alcala, still, and a return to health of Canterino. And there are other "if's" sitting on the roster as well. But they need to add. They did a great job finding Stewart last year, and DeLeon to a lesser degree. They did a bad job by letting Hoffman and Coulombe leave despite strong springs.

So they need to add SOMEHOW. At least 1 good, solid arm. But I think it would be smarter to keep looking, and keep  Varland as a starter for now.

 

 

[Doctor Evil]

I believe the Twins are nicely positioned to let prospects evolve in to positions vacated by departures while experiencing no drop off in on field results. The lower salary number is more likely the realization of that impending reload than it is about cutting expenditures.  I feel like Varland in the starting rotation is part of that.

[Doctor Evil]

I believe the Twins are nicely positioned to let prospects evolve in to positions vacated by departures while experiencing no drop off in on field results. The lower salary number is more likely the realization of that impending reload than it is about cutting expenditures.  I feel like Varland in the starting rotation is part of that.

[Doctor Evil]

I believe the Twins are nicely positioned to let prospects evolve in to positions vacated by departures while experiencing no drop off in on field results. The lower salary number is more likely the realization of that impending reload than it is about cutting expenditures.  I feel like Varland in the starting rotation is part of that.

[Jocko87]

7 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins made a strategic decision in September to optimize the talent in their system by directing their #6 starter to work in relief with an eye for usage in the bullpen. This was directly related to a specific need in the pen for the postseason and a reflection of the fact that there would be no need of Varland as a starting pitcher in September or in the postseason. Of course, Baldelli (and everyone else) liked how Varland competed in the pen.

If the Twins add two pitchers who slot into the rotation as #2-3 starting pitchers, Varland would be pushed back in a manner similar to what the Twins did last season with Bailey Ober. While I'm very hopeful the Twins add a replacement for Sonny Gray, I'm also ready to see Varland on the mound as a regular in the rotation of starting pitchers.

I mostly chimed into say I'd make more comments once we actually had some information that makes his role more apparent.

But absent some real information, I agree with Tony and or Rodney. The most obvious answer is that they repeat last year unless he's lights out as a starter. If they find two starters obviously better it would be interesting to see what happens. I love him in the bullpen but the most efficient way to eat a long seasons worth of innings and shape up for the playoffs is a repeat of last year.

[Riverbrian]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I mostly chimed into say I'd make more comments once we actually had some information that makes his role more apparent.

But absent some real information, I agree with Tony and or Rodney. The most obvious answer is that they repeat last year unless he's lights out as a starter. If they find two starters obviously better it would be interesting to see what happens. I love him in the bullpen but the most efficient way to eat a long seasons worth of innings and shape up for the playoffs is a repeat of last year.

Yes... You, Tony, Rodney and Doc are on to something.

The decision does not have to be permanent. 

Where you start isn't always where you finish. 

I once had a tea pot that wouldn't whistle. Turned it into a nice flower planter. 

I once missed an exit on the interstate and I was able to avoid going around the entire world by hitting the next exit and turning around. 

No need to place a tattoo on Louie. 

 

[jorgenswest]

18 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

That is indeed considered by me and in no way will I ever downplay the leverage importance of a capable bullpen. I have and will continue to express my desire for a solid bullpen from top to bottom and I do believe that Varland could serve wonderfully in that role. 

However... something else that needs consideration is that high leverage for Duran and Jax does not occur if the pitchers throwing the bulk of innings of whatever leverage can't get the job done. 

The more innings with zero's hung the better. The starter who throws more innings can hang more zeroes and will always be more valuable.

If Varland is moved to the pen... you have to replace him in the rotation with someone better than Varland in the rotation. Bundy (I always pick on Bundy) as a starter with Varland in the pen requires 140 innings of not decent in order to produce 60 innings of decent. I don't like that deal.  

 

I agree if his reliever ceiling is simply decent. If he can be a very good reliever bordering on All Star consideration, I think that is more valuable than a decent back of the rotation starter. Does he have the pitch mix to be a mid rotation starter and see the top of a line up a third time?

Would you trade Duran for a decent back of the rotation starter? I wouldn’t in spite of the inning difference. I think I would trade Jax for that starter though.

As for this year he would be my 6th starter beginning in AAA. I would also find another decent starter. Prepping him as a starter will not close the door on moving him to late inning reliever. 

[wabene]

The Twins would be foolish not to see if Louie can be a number 3 or better starting pitcher. If he can, he is a huge success story and we all have a happy ending. If he falters, even just pitching as a starter to the level he had in that role previously, then you have a decision to make. 

The Twins should aquire a pitcher talented enough to push Louie to number 6 waiting in St Paul. Like last season with Bailey Ober, if every year the Twins have enough talent to force a major league caliber starter to the number 6 depth role, that is a good thing. That is also something I only experienced last year in all my years as a fan of this club.

Stockpile talent, force guys to earn a spot with the big club. Last year there was much complaining that a starter that many felt was better than some who made the cut, was "wasting" bullets in the minors. I did not join the chorus, Bailey had options and it was the logical course of action. It turned out well and Bailey got all the innings he could handle in the bigs. Unlike Ober, Varland has no innings limit or injury history and even if he starts in St Paul, chances are he pitches more MLB innings than the 144 Bailey logged. 

 

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Doctor Evil said:

I believe the Twins are nicely positioned to let prospects evolve in to positions vacated by departures while experiencing no drop off in on field results. The lower salary number is more likely the realization of that impending reload than it is about cutting expenditures.  I feel like Varland in the starting rotation is part of that.

I don't think Varland is going to be the CYA runner-up in 2024.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

23 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

 

I think we need some sources for these quotes here before we get out the pitchforks. I don't know enough about Varland to judge his character, but Boras never speaks in such black-and-white terms, he tends to speak with the goal of keeping as many doors open as possible for his players.

Nick, I based my statement about Varland wanting to be a starter because they are paid more on a September 5, 2023 Star Tribune article by Phil Miller, which quoted Varland as saying: "I believe the best version of myself is a starter. Starters also get paid."

[TopGunn#22]

I think jorgenswest has phrased this well when saying we would never trade Duran for a decent, back end starter, but he would trade Jax for a #3 starter.

Let's say the Twins traded Garrett Jax  19.1 BBTV "value"  Polanco 8.8  Kala 'i Rosario 2.2 for a  30.1 Total Value to the Mariners for Bryce Miller 25.8 and Ty France 3.6  29.4 Total Value.

Varland then replaces Jax as the primary 8th inning guy.  Miller slots in as our #3 SP with Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack.  Ty France is 1B insurance for Kiriloff and a solid RH bat.  

Varland wouldn't be spending any time "wasting bullets" in St. Paul, he'd have a solid role and would probably pitch 70-75 innings.  And he could be VERY good doing it.  I'd be on board with this, but I'd still want to either sign Giolito (Severino just signed with the Mets for a very affordable 1-year $13 million deal) or trade Kepler to the Marlins for Edward Cabrera to make sure I have enough depth for my rotation.  

[Riverbrian]

46 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I agree if his reliever ceiling is simply decent. If he can be a very good reliever bordering on All Star consideration, I think that is more valuable than a decent back of the rotation starter. Does he have the pitch mix to be a mid rotation starter and see the top of a line up a third time?

Would you trade Duran for a decent back of the rotation starter? I wouldn’t in spite of the inning difference. I think I would trade Jax for that starter though.

As for this year he would be my 6th starter beginning in AAA. I would also find another decent starter. Prepping him as a starter will not close the door on moving him to late inning reliever. 

Trading Duran would depend on the return, service time, contract details and so on.

I also suspect that Griffin Jax wouldn't net the return for a better starter than what Varland is right now... at least not until you trade Duran and put Jax into Duran's role so he increases his value a tish. 😉

I also suspect that Varland has more current trade value at this moment than Jax because Varland can start games and therefore throw more innings which suggests that we could get a better starter (value wise) by trading Varland compared to what you would get by trading Jax... but I'm just having fun because I know you were just using broad examples. 

To answer your Duran trade question broadly and absent of important considerations and special circumstances such as service time and contract. 

Let's just say... I was a strong advocate in support of the Rogers for Paddack deal because a quality starter is hard to get and more valuable so I guess that is my answer still to this day and it would apply to Duran as well. I'm not giving him away but for the right starter... yeah... I would.  

Only 9 relief pitchers are over 10 Million AAV. 

45 Starters are over 10 million AAV.

17 Starters have a higher AAV than Edwin Diaz at the top of the pile.  

Teams need around 10 starters to get through a season. 

And yeah... we need even more relievers but they throw less innings. 

In the end... the more innings you can throw... the more zeroes you can hang... the more zeroes you can hang... the bigger your value to a club and increased value to a club leads to higher trade value for potential acquisitions should the need arise and the bigger contract that Varland can sign once he reaches free agency. 😎 

 

 

 

[KBJ1]

If we don't make a deal for a SP, then Varland starts. If we do, he would be a welcome addition to the bullpen and our pitching will be set. Seems the best route for 2024.

[tony&rodney]

Most everyone is just assuming that Paddack would be slotted into the starting rotation before Varland. This may depend on whether the Twins manage to acquire someone to put behind or in front of Lopez. Paddack in my view is the #5 SP, because he can be skipped in the rotation when the schedule allows to save innings and protect his arm. The Twins are hoping for 100 effective innings from Paddack.

The role for Varland is not in stone. Varland is likely working on a way to shape his pitches more effectively right now and Louie will hope to put himself in the rotation with his performances in Spring Training. Than again, that didn't help last year for Ober, but the guys ahead of Bailey were much more established too.