If Reunions Can’t Be Made, Michael Wacha Might Be the Starter to Sign

[Theodore Tollefson]

The Twins need another starter to solidify themselves with the best chance to capture the American League Central Division title again in 2024. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray, this free agent class is meek in depth for top to middle-rotation guys.
 

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA Today Sports

There is one name that stands out among free agent starters available that not only fits into the mold as a good option for the Twins budget but also his stuff: Michael Wacha. 

Wacha’s situation is more tricky than others this off-season. The Padres have a two-year, $32 million team option built into his one-year deal from last off-season, but Wacha also has a $6.5 million player option he can exercise with the Padres for 2024. 

However, the Padres might be more willing to cut costs where they can as news broke last week from The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal, and Dennis Lin reported the Padres took out a $50 million loan to cover payroll in September. They could be looking to cut costs wherever they can, and Wacha’s contract would be an easy decision. 

While the team option complicates the clearness of his availability in free agency, Wacha was easily the second-best starter for the Padres this season behind Snell. He made 24 starts, had a 3.22 ERA in 134.1 innings pitched, a 1.16 WHIP, a .224 opponents batting average, 124 strikeouts, and 14 wins. 

For the more analytical heads, Wacha also found himself in the 94th percentile in pitching run value and the 98th percentile for off-speed pitches run value this year per Baseball Savant. 

Wacha is entering his age-32 season in 2024, making him one of the younger, better-available middle-rotation starters in this free-agency class. Given his age and performance in 2023, there’s a good possibility Wacha won’t exercise his player option if the Padres decline his team option.

This winter could be his last opportunity to get a long-term, massive payday in his career and test the free agency waters for it. Per Baseball Reference, Wacha has never earned more money in a single season than he did this year at $7.5 million. After his 2023 performance, he is certainly closer in value to the $16 million a season that can be exercised in his team option with the Swinging Friars. 

Fortunately for the Twins, if Wacha enters this free agency market, offering him a couple extra million a season in the $18-$20 million range would not be detrimental to the spending budget, with it shrinking due to TV revenue losses. The price range is what Gray will receive in his qualifying offer. Still, he’s all but guaranteed to decline, as everyone and their mother knows he will receive a greater annual salary in almost every free agency offer.

The significant upside with Wacha compared to Maeda is his younger age. Maeda will be 36 in 2024 and while he stabilized himself in the rotation and bullpen to end the season, the decline of age and recovery from Tommy John showed in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Astros. Wacha would undoubtedly be a safer gamble to pursue on that merit alone. 

Then there’s the workload that Wacha would be undertaking compared to other starters the Twins currently have. In theory, the Twins could make due with the five starters they have in the organization for Opening Day: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland. 

In an ideal world, this would be perfect, but as the game shows us again and again, depth is a necessity for a winning team. Wacha would be great in providing that depth if the Twins opt to have Varland in the bullpen or St. Paul or if any of the listed starters suffer injury setbacks. 

2023 was the first time Wacha pitched over 130 innings in a season since 2017, when he threw 165.2 innings with the Cardinals and posted a 4.13 ERA. It’s unclear if Wacha will have a workload that heavy again, but the 134.1 innings this season puts him between Maeda’s 104.1 innings and Ober’s 144.1 innings in 2023. 

The amount of workload that Wacha can currently take on is a good balance to avoid rushing Varland back into the rotation, or call up the likes of David Festa from St. Paul too early in 2024. It will also be good to have him either in front of or behind Paddack in the rotation in case he still needs to rebuild his innings limits workload as he returns to the Twins rotation in 2024. 

If Wacha does end up being available, his price tag, workload capabilities on the mound, and 2023 performance make him the perfect candidate for the Twins to pursue if they are unable to resign Gray. 

In the unlikely case that the Padres exercise Wacha’s option, $32 million over 2-years is still worth pursuing via trade. Given the Twins' recent success in their trade history with the Friars, it would be an offer worth pursuing. 

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[Trov]

I did not hear about the loan the Padres had to take out.  Maybe, they really could not afford the payroll they were building like some thought. If Padres have to do fire sale and cut costs it will be interesting to see how bad of trades they have to make. Miami did that with Stanton, turned out well for them as he has been way overpaid in New York.  Wacha has shown he can be a reliable starter again, I would be willing to take him on. 

[DJL44]

Tired of shopping the clearance aisles. This will not help them win a single playoff game.

[EGFTShaw]

53 minutes ago, Trov said:

I did not hear about the loan the Padres had to take out.  Maybe, they really could not afford the payroll they were building like some thought. If Padres have to do fire sale and cut costs it will be interesting to see how bad of trades they have to make. Miami did that with Stanton, turned out well for them as he has been way overpaid in New York.  Wacha has shown he can be a reliable starter again, I would be willing to take him on. 

The article I read about the payroll loan by the Padres is it is not unusual for MLB teams to do this.  So I wouldn't read too much into it.

[EGFTShaw]

A regressed SonnyG is still better than Wacha IMHO.

Wacha is not a bad choice overall I guess if we have lost SonnyG.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Very good article. Wacha would be a fine addition to the Twins rotation. Affordable and reasonable.  The Twins do need a starter to replace Sonny Gray. However, my first choice would be to re-sign Gray to a 3 year contract for $63 million. He probably will be offered more by other teams, however his age makes a 3 year contract risky.  

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Theo Tollefson said:

The Twins need another starter to solidify themselves with the best chance to capture the American League Central Division title again in 2024. Aside from Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Sonny Gray, this free agent class is meek in depth for top to middle-rotation guys.

 

Whaaaaat?  This is a very deep class.  What about Montgomery / Nola / Rodriquez and the two Japanese players plus Stroman also opted out and is now a FA.

[Mike Sixel]

Aim for elite, or just use the guys you have. He's not elite. 

[EGFTShaw]

34 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Whaaaaat?  This is a very deep class.  What about Montgomery / Nola / Rodriquez and the two Japanese players plus Stroman also opted out and is now a FA.

They are speculating Nola $150M/6yrs, Monty $150M/6yrs, Yamamoto $225M/9yrs, Snell $200M/7yrs, Imanaga $85M/5yrs, Rodriguez $82M/4yrs, LG $44M/2yrs, Stroman $44M/2yrs and SonnyG $90M/4yrs.

Ponder away.

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

The article I read about the payroll loan by the Padres is it is not unusual for MLB teams to do this.  So I wouldn't read too much into it.

Not an unusual move for businesses in general and as something we don't usually hear about it causes headlines.  Combined with the TV deal stuff they have going on it is probably more noteworthy than most times.  It's also a pretty big number.  If I'm making the loan, I gotta hear a good plan.  Their banker may know more about the offseason plan than most of the front office.  They also asked for near the full $100m and got $50m.  They admit to overspending as part of a plan but its still concerning on some levels.  If we hear about a cash call from the 27 or whatever owners, buckle up. 

Wacha isn't good enough for them to spend the money on when you look around the rest of their locker room.  Several other teams including the Twins could afford it and it would be a decent deal.

[LA Vikes Fan]

57 minutes ago, EGFTShaw said:

They are speculating Nola $150M/6yrs, Monty $150M/6yrs, Yamamoto $225M/9yrs, Snell $200M/7yrs, Imanaga $85M/5yrs, Rodriguez $82M/4yrs, LG $44M/2yrs, Stroman $44M/2yrs and SonnyG $90M/4yrs.

Ponder away.

If those are correct, the only ones that interest me are Rodriguez (4 yrs/ $82m), Stroman (2 yrs/ $44m), and Giolito (2 yrs/ $44m), in that order. Imanaga is interesting but pretty much a complete crapshoot on a long contract for a 30 year old. Gray at 3 years, $65m works - 1 year less, little less AAV - but I do think he'll get 4 years from somebody and probably more AAV so he'll be out of what the Twins perceive as their price range.   

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

They are speculating Nola $150M/6yrs, Monty $150M/6yrs, Yamamoto $225M/9yrs, Snell $200M/7yrs, Imanaga $85M/5yrs, Rodriguez $82M/4yrs, LG $44M/2yrs, Stroman $44M/2yrs and SonnyG $90M/4yrs.

Ponder away.

Mercy that is a lot of money in to be placed into each one of those egg baskets. Get it wrong, or if the pitcher suffers an injury, which negatively alters his career, and the team, which is obligated for this kind of money, is in a precarious financial position. While I understand and, in fact, advocated for the Buxton contract, it has hurt the team financially, and may continue to do so in the future.  But these dollar figures for 30 year old starting pitchers are very risky. I believe I'd go with Wacha instead.

[FilthyMogwai]

Need an impact arm in the post-season to form a 1-2 punch with Pablo. Otherwise, don't even bother and focus on internal options and upgrading the hitting.

I agree with whoever said it in here; Wacha does not move the needle. I want someone that I feel good about pitching against the Astros. And you know the Yankees will improve their roster. 

 

[Jeff K]

4 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

If those are correct, the only ones that interest me are Rodriguez (4 yrs/ $82m), Stroman (2 yrs/ $44m), and Giolito (2 yrs/ $44m), in that order. Imanaga is interesting but pretty much a complete crapshoot on a long contract for a 30 year old. Gray at 3 years, $65m works - 1 year less, little less AAV - but I do think he'll get 4 years from somebody and probably more AAV so he'll be out of what the Twins perceive as their price range.   

We are all just guessing; however, the numbers I've seen bandied about are lower.  I think Sonny will be hard pressed to get a 4 year deal.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

$20M APY for Wacha is nuts, especially for a small-market team like the Twins. Also, you can extend Royce Lewis for less annual money. He does not give you a ton of innings, his numbers are due to regress and he does not have a strong post-season track record (I believe he was the one who gave up the Travis Ishikawa HR in the NLCS). No, thank you.

[sun]

I don't know why fans expect perfection or a playoff ace when the Twins need to make it to the playoffs first. I like Maeda but if a deal could be worked out for Wacha then I think that he would work out okay. Too bad the Twins didn't sign him last year when they had the chance. The Twins can always try to aquire a playoff pitcher at the trade deadline. But they still need to be in the hunt for the Division title before doing a deadline deal. The Twins should have a 6 starter rotation anyway. I like Wacha, IIRC he won when he started a game against the Twins. But he seems to need time off during the season to allow his arm/shoulder to recover. 

[Doctor Wu]

Wacha just doesn't move the needle for me. A decent pitcher, but one that hasn't thrown that many innings in recent years. and certainly not the sort of starting pitcher you want in a playoff rotation. We can do better, much better. 

[HrbieFan]

19 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

They are speculating Nola $150M/6yrs, Monty $150M/6yrs, Yamamoto $225M/9yrs, Snell $200M/7yrs, Imanaga $85M/5yrs, Rodriguez $82M/4yrs, LG $44M/2yrs, Stroman $44M/2yrs and SonnyG $90M/4yrs.

Ponder away.

Rodriguez would be a solid addition at that price. He seems like a guy that is getting better.  Nola would be a  dream, doubt he leaves the city of battery throwers.