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There is one name that stands out among free agent starters available that not only fits into the mold as a good option for the Twins budget but also his stuff: Michael Wacha.
Wacha’s situation is more tricky than others this off-season. The Padres have a two-year, $32 million team option built into his one-year deal from last off-season, but Wacha also has a $6.5 million player option he can exercise with the Padres for 2024.
However, the Padres might be more willing to cut costs where they can as news broke last week from The Athletic’s Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal, and Dennis Lin reported the Padres took out a $50 million loan to cover payroll in September. They could be looking to cut costs wherever they can, and Wacha’s contract would be an easy decision.
While the team option complicates the clearness of his availability in free agency, Wacha was easily the second-best starter for the Padres this season behind Snell. He made 24 starts, had a 3.22 ERA in 134.1 innings pitched, a 1.16 WHIP, a .224 opponents batting average, 124 strikeouts, and 14 wins.
For the more analytical heads, Wacha also found himself in the 94th percentile in pitching run value and the 98th percentile for off-speed pitches run value this year per Baseball Savant.
Wacha is entering his age-32 season in 2024, making him one of the younger, better-available middle-rotation starters in this free-agency class. Given his age and performance in 2023, there’s a good possibility Wacha won’t exercise his player option if the Padres decline his team option.
This winter could be his last opportunity to get a long-term, massive payday in his career and test the free agency waters for it. Per Baseball Reference, Wacha has never earned more money in a single season than he did this year at $7.5 million. After his 2023 performance, he is certainly closer in value to the $16 million a season that can be exercised in his team option with the Swinging Friars.
Fortunately for the Twins, if Wacha enters this free agency market, offering him a couple extra million a season in the $18-$20 million range would not be detrimental to the spending budget, with it shrinking due to TV revenue losses. The price range is what Gray will receive in his qualifying offer. Still, he’s all but guaranteed to decline, as everyone and their mother knows he will receive a greater annual salary in almost every free agency offer.
The significant upside with Wacha compared to Maeda is his younger age. Maeda will be 36 in 2024 and while he stabilized himself in the rotation and bullpen to end the season, the decline of age and recovery from Tommy John showed in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Astros. Wacha would undoubtedly be a safer gamble to pursue on that merit alone.
Then there’s the workload that Wacha would be undertaking compared to other starters the Twins currently have. In theory, the Twins could make due with the five starters they have in the organization for Opening Day: Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Louie Varland.
In an ideal world, this would be perfect, but as the game shows us again and again, depth is a necessity for a winning team. Wacha would be great in providing that depth if the Twins opt to have Varland in the bullpen or St. Paul or if any of the listed starters suffer injury setbacks.
2023 was the first time Wacha pitched over 130 innings in a season since 2017, when he threw 165.2 innings with the Cardinals and posted a 4.13 ERA. It’s unclear if Wacha will have a workload that heavy again, but the 134.1 innings this season puts him between Maeda’s 104.1 innings and Ober’s 144.1 innings in 2023.
The amount of workload that Wacha can currently take on is a good balance to avoid rushing Varland back into the rotation, or call up the likes of David Festa from St. Paul too early in 2024. It will also be good to have him either in front of or behind Paddack in the rotation in case he still needs to rebuild his innings limits workload as he returns to the Twins rotation in 2024.
If Wacha does end up being available, his price tag, workload capabilities on the mound, and 2023 performance make him the perfect candidate for the Twins to pursue if they are unable to resign Gray.
In the unlikely case that the Padres exercise Wacha’s option, $32 million over 2-years is still worth pursuing via trade. Given the Twins' recent success in their trade history with the Friars, it would be an offer worth pursuing.
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- Heiny, arby58 and tarheeltwinsfan
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