Matt Canterino: Bullpen Force?

[TwinsDr2021]

Just now, nicksaviking said:

Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Glen Perkins, Eddie Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins. The Giants did it to Joe Nathan, not the Twins. The Twins foolishly DIDN'T do it to Liam Hendricks and the let the Blue Jays use the cheat code on him instead.

Basically any reliever of note the Twins have had this century, except for Jesse Crain, were converted from starters at the MLB level or right before they got called up.

Ok, I thought you meant this front office.

[DocBauer]

Normally, my opinion is to keep a talented young arm in the rotation for as long as possible. You'd love every talented arm to have a 10yr career in the rotation. But a 5yr career of being really good is usually better a career as a bullpen arm, even a great one.

The problem here is the lack of innings thrown previously as a pro. Not sure I ever really broke down how few IP he's had since being drafted. He's got a pretty long road to build up to 100+ innings. So I'm now leaning towards putting him straight to the pen.

But I am wondering if using him as an opener and going 2-3 innings isn't the smart option. It might help him build strength, work on all 3 of his offerings, and if things go unexpectedly great, maybe he stays there. But I just think it's a good way to polish all of his pitches. 

I 100% agree he, Jax, and Duran could form an outstanding back end of the pen.

 

[MN_ExPat]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It's not about the innings, it's the fact that Rice has a history of letting pitchers throw huge numbers of pitches in those outings. There's a real history at the school of junking players arms by not managing their workloads and letting a guy chuck 100-120 pitches at age 20

Is it Rice or a specific coach that's "ruining" these pitchers?  Also, what time frame are speaking of?  I've heard the same/similar anecdotal stories about Rice, but to be honest nothing ever truly specific.  100-110 pitches is actually very common these days (even in HS).  My son would routinely hit 90-95 pitches in a complete game in HS.

The more troubling stories tend to be the ones where kids are throwing 30-40+ pitches in an inning, especially in multiple frames.  Generally speaking, good coaches try to be very careful with their guys, especially in college as there are no reinforcements once everyone enrolls in school and practice starts. But if a kid is throwing 15-20 pitches an inning (not an insurmountable number), after 6 he's hit 100+.

Also, stories about programs like Rice don't really take into account what the pitchers history is before they get to college.  I have seen firsthand, multiple instances of young men's arms all but falling off because of extreme overuse in competitive travel ball and showcase circuits (due to bad "coaches", general hyper competitiveness of the young men and, even worse, clueless parents).

Then, on top of that, sometimes... an arm or ligament will simply "give up" and say no mas.

So in conclusion (finally 😉), I don't think you're wrong in stating or thinking that... I would just add that there is often way more to the story than simply saying "Rice has a history of ruining pitchers arms."

[Danchat]

Canterino has some Nick Burdi vibes to him, in velocity and injury history. If the Twins are going to get anything out of him, it's going to be from the bullpen.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

57 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Glen Perkins, Eddie Guardado, LaTroy Hawkins. The Giants did it to Joe Nathan before the Twins got to him. The Twins foolishly DIDN'T do it to Liam Hendricks and the let the Blue Jays use the cheat code on him instead.

Basically any reliever of note the Twins have had this century, except for Jesse Crain, were converted from starters at the MLB level or right before they got called up.

How is history that old relevant to Maki and Baldelli?

I think they should convert Canterino to a reliever and am optimistic they’ll succeed, but Rogers is the only pitcher in the list converted during this FO’s tenure.

[Guest]

Canterino can compete for relief innings alongside Varland et al.  Nothing precludes later transitioning him to a starting role if performance warrants.  Let him roll.

[stringer bell]

He'll be 26 next month. To spend another year in the minors pitching four innings or less per start would waste what seems to be major league stuff IMHO. Let him go to the bullpen and she how he fares. 

[terrydactyls]

54 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

How is history that old relevant to Maki and Baldelli?

I think they should convert Canterino to a reliever and am optimistic they’ll succeed, but Rogers is the only pitcher in the list converted during this FO’s tenure.

The original statement was that the "Twins" have a history of turning starters into relievers and was not restricted this specific front office.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

How is history that old relevant to Maki and Baldelli?

I think they should convert Canterino to a reliever and am optimistic they’ll succeed, but Rogers is the only pitcher in the list converted during this FO’s tenure.

Turning your starters with injury history or too few quality pitches into relievers isn't some secret trick relevant to Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. Everyone does it, probably since the game was invented. Here in Minnesota, we've seen the payoff for such a move repeatedly and frequently.

[Juza]

I'm seeing a lot of comparisons to Duran and his move to the bullpen. The difference to me is that Duran was reasonably expected to only throw 75-100 innings the year he made the bullpen out of spring training. Coming off TJ that would be a stretch. I think I'd keep him to the 3-4 inning starts every 5th day in the minors until maybe August. Probably give him an IL stint in there somewhere as well to rest. I'd then give him the Varland treatment, spend 2 weeks at AAA coming out of the pen for 2 innings at a time and join the Twins pen for September, October, and November (yes World Series!). All of this with the eye on starting again the next year at spring training. He has no MLB service time and it wouldn't bother me if he is 27 making his first starts at the MLB level in 2025. I don't think you give up on a #1/#2 type starter before they make their MLB debut. 

[jorgenswest]

On Rice University…

I believe the roots of the reputation for pitchers and injuries starts with the 2004 draft. Rice had 3 pitchers drafted in the first 8 picks and all 3 suffered arm injuries early in their professional careers. Their manager, Wayne Graham, was also Canterino’s manager in 2 of his 3 seasons.

There have been several other pitchers drafted in the first 50 picks in Graham’s era.

Ken Baugh missed his second professional season due to injury. Jon Skaggs was injured after 1 professional start and then missed his second season. Neither made it to the majors.

Matt Anderson was the first overall pick in 1997. He did suffer an injury in 2002. He tore a muscle in his arm pit and some connect it to the pregame octopus throwing promotion that he had participated in with another Detroit pitcher. He never pitched well again. It seems unlikely that Rice is to blame here. 

I don’t see injuries to Joe Savery, David Aardsma, Norm Charlton or Bryan Price early in their professional careers either. 

The Twins have drafted two other of his Rice pitchers. J.T. Chargois suffered injuries. Tyler Duffey was healthy. Both were relievers while at Rice.

Pitcher injuries happen. It seems unlikely that the workload at Rice is the cause and I wouldn’t blame the Twins for drafting a good arm that happened to pitch for Rice. I do think they should avoid having their pitchers participate in octopus throwing promotions.

 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

As much as I don't like having guys with #1 starter upside moved to the pen, it feels like that's what the call should be for Canterino. Duran had the same conundrum, and people still talk about wanting to put him back in the rotation, but those shutdown bullpen arms are also vital. If Canterino can join Duran and Jax at the back of the pen and form a shutdown trio for the next 4 years that'd be a huge box checked off on the to do list. Maybe Varland ends up there as well at some point over the next year or 2. If you can turn every playoff game into a 6 inning game for the opponent's offense you're in good shape. If Canterino can be that type of reliever that's the move I'd make. Him building up to a true starter's workload (even in this age of reduced starter innings) likely takes too long. If he can be a pen force starting in 2024 that's what I'd do.

Don’t forget that if Stewart can hold his health together we have a quartet of pretty good options!

[Doctor Wu]

22 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Keeping guys like this in the rotation is always tempting, but I'd say rip the band aid off now and let him adjust to the pen.

Hoping for the the best in the rotation seems to work out so infrequently for these hard throwing guys with injury history, so don't waste the options and service time. That's how you end up losing guys before trying them out as a reliever for a full season, which is what I think you need to do. Some guys click right away, like Duran or Taylor Rogers, but most guys need a full year to transition before they become a bullpen asset.

Well said, It's VERY tempting to keep guys like this as starters. Up until a year ago I was still hoping that they would try to keep Duran as a starter, but obviously he is firmly settled in the bullpen. For Canterino, I have no strong opinion either way at this point, but the bullpen certainly COULD be a pleasing option.