How Will Strikeouts Impact the Twins in the Postseason?

[Cody Christie]

Twins batters are on pace to set the all-time record for strikeouts in a season, while the pitching staff has already set the team record for strikeouts. How will these two opposite ends of the spectrum impact the team in October?

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Strikeouts have become increasingly part of the game because baseball is a game that continually evolves. Increases in research and technology have allowed pitchers to add velocity and more movement to their pitches, making them even more challenging to hit. Batters also have a wealth of data about opposing pitchers. Hitting a round baseball with a round bat is one of the most challenging tasks in professional sports, leading to higher strikeout totals. 

Pitching Staff’s Strike Out Prowess
Minnesota’s pitching staff entered play on Sunday with a league-leading 1,461 strikeouts. The Twins have baseball’s highest K% (25.4%) and K-BB% (17.9%). Minnesota can realistically move into the all-time top-25 list for strikeouts at their current rate of striking out more than 9.2 times per game. The 2018 Houston Astros set the all-time record with 1,687 strikeouts, but to reach the top 25, the Twins only need to collect 1,524 strikeouts. Building a strikeout pitching staff has taken some time, but the Twins have developed arms up-and-down the roster. 

Pablo Lopez leads the Twins with over 228 strikeouts, which puts him into elite company among the franchise’s strikeout list. Only three pitchers in team history have struck out more batters in a season than Lopez. Joe Ryan led the Twins in strikeouts during the 2022 season, and he currently ranks second on the team with 181, with Sonny Gray only two strikeouts behind him. Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda have accumulated over 100 strikeouts during the season. Minnesota’s bullpen also includes three pitchers (Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran, and Kody Funderburk) with a K/9 of 11.5 or higher. In tight playoff games, strikeouts can be the difference between a team getting out of a jam or seeing the opposition score runs. 

Lineup Strikeout Issues
The Twins lineup has already set the team record for strikeouts in a season, and they are in the top 15 all-time for strikeouts in MLB history. Minnesota has struck out ten times or more in 88 times through the team’s first 155 games, which smashes the previous record of 66 games with 10+ strikeouts. Unfortunately, the team has also struck out 13 times or more in 33 games this season, with a season-high 18 strikeouts versus Seattle on July 25th. Looking at the lineup, there is some hope for a late-season turnaround. 

Things have changed in the second half with the emergence of a young core that has improved the team’s overall offensive output while also improving at drawing walks. Among American League teams, only the Houston Astros have scored more runs since the All-Star break. Six Twins players have a K% above 30% for the season, with Joey Gallo leading the way (42.8%). Three of the six players will have little to do with the playoff roster, including Gallo, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton. 

Recent Postseason History
Strikeouts play a role in October but don’t guarantee postseason success. During the 2022 season, the four pitching staffs in the Championship Series ranked in the top 10 or higher in strikeout rate. Offensively, none of the final four ranked higher than 13th in total strikeouts. The Astros won the World Series and finished with the fourth-most strikeouts from their pitching staff and the second-fewest strikeouts from their batters.  

In 2021, the Braves won the World Series, and their batters finished with the 11th most strikeouts while their pitchers were only slightly above the league average. The Dodgers (2nd), Red Sox (5th), and Astros (11th) were among the final four teams and ranked higher than the Braves according to strikeouts from the pitching staff. However, the Astros (2nd fewest strikeouts) were the lone final four team to be better than league-average on the offensive side. 

The Twins have embraced the strikeout on both sides of the ball. Only the 2015 Cubs and the 1958 Dodgers have led the league in both pitching and batting strikeout rates in the same season. Both clubs went on to win the World Series the following season. Twins fans likely don’t want to wait until next year and can hope their strikeout performance can carry them during the 2023 postseason. 

Are you worried about the Twins’ strikeout totals? Can a team succeed in the postseason on the two strikeout extremes? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[farmerguychris]

I think we have demonstrated the ability to work deep into counts when our mindset is right.  Swing at strikes - don't chase pitches (especially high ones) and we'll be fine.  Unfortunately I'm sure I'm not the first person to tell our batters that, so I don't have high hopes.

We have the pitchers to get us on a run if they stay hot and can avoid 1 bad inning here or there.

We'll be going against the best pitchers and best hitters in the world - hopefully we can be patient on both fronts and not rush/make mistakes.

[Karbo]

24 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I think we have demonstrated the ability to work deep into counts when our mindset is right.  Swing at strikes - don't chase pitches (especially high ones) and we'll be fine.  Unfortunately I'm sure I'm not the first person to tell our batters that, so I don't have high hopes.

We have the pitchers to get us on a run if they stay hot and can avoid 1 bad inning here or there.

We'll be going against the best pitchers and best hitters in the world - hopefully we can be patient on both fronts and not rush/make mistakes.

And lets hope the umps call at least a consistent zone. I'll add that I don't know who the top K pitchers are in a year, but I can't help but think some may have pitched in a bygone era where innings piled up and guys had more starts.

[EGFTShaw]

1 minute ago, Karbo said:

And lets hope the umps call at least a consistent zone. I'll add that I don't know who the top K pitchers are in a year, but I can't help but think some may have pitched in a bygone era where innings piled up and guys had more starts.

Bring back Larry the Axe Bernie... ;) (sorry for the very Old AWA reference)

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I've been recently more concerned about giving up walks (especially the BP) than strikeouts.  That will absolutely kill us in the post season.

According to Fangraphs, the Twins have the 4th lowest BB/9 (2.76 BB/9) in baseball. Bullpen is only 13th (3.55), though. Since August 1, the whole staff is 6th (2.69), and the bullpen is 16th (3.65). Since September 1, full staff is 3rd (2.45), and bullpen is 8th (3.05).

By BB%, full season, whole staff is 4th (7.4%), bullpen is 14th (9.4%). Since August 1, whole staff is 6th (7.1%), and bullpen is 17th (95%). Since September 1, whole staff is 3rd (6.6%), and bullpen is 7th (8.3%).

By K-BB%, whole staff is 1st (18.1%), bullpen is 20th (15%). Since August 1, whole staff is 3rd (17.4%), and bullpen is 11th (14.9%). Since September 1, whole staff is 2nd (19.9%), and bullpen is 4th (18.8%).

So August was pretty bad for the bullpen, but September they've actually been much better with the free passes.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Thanks for the stats Chpettit.  I must have been watching more in August😉

Oh, believe me, this pen has me questioning a lot of things, and I would not have predicted those September stats. I only looked it up cuz you made me curious. I'm just glad there's real talent in the staff as a whole (can move some of those quality starters to the pen in the postseason) for the first time in a long time come October.

[Brandon]

September pen has Funderbunk and Varland in it vs August pen….

 

[Nine of twelve]

4 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

Bring back Larry the Axe Bernie... ;) (sorry for the very Old AWA reference)

I think you must have meant Larry (the Axe) Hennig.

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

I think you must have meant Larry (the Axe) Hennig.

Who was Pretty Boy Larry Hennig, when he wrestled with Handsome Harley Race. 😘

[jkcarew]

It’s always matchups in the playoffs. It’s hard/impossible to win with big discrepancies…if the opponent K’s 6 times and you are K’ing 14 times. As long as it’s not significantly one-sided, I think the Twins are fine. And that’s a reasonable expectation given the pitching and the second half offensive showing. We’ll see.

I’d like to know how many times the Twins batters K’d fewer (or same) times than the opposition in the second half? Close to 50%? Or what the aggregate difference was?

[jkcarew]

5 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

It’s always matchups in the playoffs. It’s hard/impossible to win with big discrepancies…if the opponent K’s 6 times and you are K’ing 14 times. As long as it’s not significantly one-sided, I think the Twins are fine. And that’s a reasonable expectation given the pitching and the second half offensive showing. We’ll see.

I’d like to know how many times the Twins batters K’d fewer (or same) times than the opposition in the second half? Close to 50%? Or what the aggregate difference was?

Did my own research. 2nd-half K’s…

Batters: 684 (10.5 per game)

Pitchers: 607 (9.3 per game)

Honestly, we’re golden if that discrepancy hold up…or even almost holds up, in the playoffs.

[mikelink45]

The key to the improvement has been Gallo and Buxton's absences.  The playoffs are notoriously tough on batters, contact is needed. 

[Trov]

Interesting that when our biggest strike out guys started sitting, for various reasons, our offense started to do better.  Wonder if there is a connection on strike out rates and offense?  I know the league has gone away from caring about strike outs for hitters, but I strongly believe, in most cases, they are the worst way to get out and it is not equal.  Guys that are all or nothing swingers will miss chances to drive in runs on singles.  

[EGFTShaw]

On 9/25/2023 at 6:20 PM, Nine of twelve said:

I think you must have meant Larry (the Axe) Hennig.

I needed a comma between Hennig, a Bernie...LOL