Strikeout Data

[stringer bell]

The raw number of strikeouts by individual players or a team doesn't tell the whole story. First and foremost, strikeouts most accurately are measured as a percentage of plate appearances. Bremer usually mentions what number of Ks a batter has in his official at-bats. The more accurate number is strikeouts per plate appearance. Here are those numbers for each Twins hitter this year. 

Name/Strikeouts/Plate Appearances/K%--Gallo/142/332/42.8  Correa/123/546/22.5  Taylor/118/354/33.3  Buxton/109/347/31.4  Julien/101/323/31.3  Kepler/90/413/21.8  Solano/87/391/22.3  Jeffers/82/281/29.1  Castro/80/329/24.3  Farmer/71/292/24.3  Kirilloff/69/258/26.7  Polanco/67/281/23.8  Larnach/67/188/35.6  Vázquez/66/304/21.7  Wallner/59/187/31.6  Lewis/44/188/23.4  Miranda/24/152/15.8  Luplow/13/51/25.4  Garlick/11/30/36.7  Gordon 11/93/11.8  Stevenson/3/17/17.6 Team/1437/5357/26.8

The team clearly has a strikeout problem that is deeper than one or two players. Subtracting Joey Gallo's plate appearances would still leave the team with the highest strikeout percentage and replacing his plate appearances with team-average K% would still leave them in jeopardy of establishing the all-time strikeout record. Further, rookies Wallner and Julien are not part of a strikeout solution with both well over 30% Ks.

In modern day baseball, a 25% K-rate is termed acceptable. In the old days, Harmon Killebrew led the league in strikeouts and K'd 21.3% of the time. That is a lower rate than anyone on the Twins with more than 160 plate appearances. The team has two prospects--Martin and Lee-at Triple A who figure to make more contact and two of the top K% guys--Gallo and Taylor--will be free agents this off season. 

Perhaps the answer is a more concerted two-strike approach or maybe protecting the plate on close pitches (I don't have the numbers, but the Twins seem to take an inordinate number of called third strikes). The team will most likely advance to the post-season as the all-time single season K leaders, but I don't think it is sustainable year to year.

[jorgenswest]

There isn’t a linear correlation between strike outs and runs scored. There may be a relationship where teams in the upper and lower extremes score fewer runs.

I do think there is a need for balance and replacing Arraez with at bats from Gallo and Julien upset that balance. Urshela and Miranda were also below 20% last year. A few more hitters next year with contact skills will help but they can win and score runs striking out a lot. Above all they need good hitters and Gallo hasn’t been one. He also has sat the bench as a defensive sub/pinch runner or bat at the bottom of the order much of the second half.

[tony&rodney]

Some of the excitement regarding both Austin Martin and Brooks Lee is attached to their contact skills being aligned with an ability to hit the ball in the gaps with occasional over the fence power. Julien, Wallner, and Correa can all improve their K-rate. I agree that high K-rates for a team are neither inherently tired to problems scoring runs nor sustainable. Walker Jenkins is off to a fantastic start in his career with a low K-rate. Emmanuel Rodriguez has the eye and bat speed to reduce his K-rate as well with a little more experience and discipline. Finally, the two strike approach does not mean one needs to abandon vicious swings early in the count on juicy pitches; it would be nice to see the Twins make contact in those situations.

[Muppet]

Any chance we can get Correa to strikeout more? One out is always preferrable to two. 

[D.C Twins]

43%... Good Lord.... The FO has no shame on this issue. 

[FlyingFinn]

Interesting that Miranda and Gordon are the best and their hitting was terrible this year. Castro is a free swinger but has a lower SO rate. And, yes, I can think of 29 times I would have preferred that Correa struck out.

Even though Wallner and Julien have high SO rates, I really like that they work the count and at least they often make the pitches throw at least 5 or 6 pitches to get them. I see Emma Rodriguez doing the same thing. Is this a philosophy that the Twins are trying to teach in the minors - very selective on pitches to hit with the downside being more SO's looking?

[insagt1]

Lots of called 3rd strikes especially with 3-2 counts. Don't have the stats but very often you see the guys hoping to get a walk and taking nearly 'perfect' pitches on corners for strike 3. Almost like umps 'know' the batter isn't going to swing.

I chuckle at the 'sarcasm' about Correa. But he does have the 2nd most k's on the team (123) and he has hit into 29 DP's...so come on. The DP's are frustrating but the k's are 4

times more frustrating. (or two times more if you count the DP's as two outs of course) STill, I will always want the batter to put the ball in play, in just about every case.

Have also noticed they take a lot of first pitch strikes...which may be the best pitch they get to hit, and that puts them in an immediate hole. I hope Julien figures things out soon. Suddenly his bat has gone cold after a real decent hot stretch.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The pitches Julien has taken for strike 3 have sometimes been some of the best looking pitches to hit. Dead middle of the strike zone.

When you hit the ball good things can happen. Strike out 10 fewer time? Probably means 3 more hits (oversimplification of BABIP, but not completely).

Strikeouts by huge HR hitters can be dealt with.  Strikeouts by singles hitters are tough on stats. And the team.

[RpR]

54 minutes ago, insagt1 said:

Lots of called 3rd strikes especially with 3-2 counts. Don't have the stats but very often you see the guys hoping to get a walk and taking nearly 'perfect' pitches on corners for strike 3. Almost like umps 'know' the batter isn't going to swing.

I chuckle at the 'sarcasm' about Correa. But he does have the 2nd most k's on the team (123) and he has hit into 29 DP's...so come on. The DP's are frustrating but the k's are 4

times more frustrating. (or two times more if you count the DP's as two outs of course) STill, I will always want the batter to put the ball in play, in just about every case.

Have also noticed they take a lot of first pitch strikes...which may be the best pitch they get to hit, and that puts them in an immediate hole. I hope Julien figures things out soon. Suddenly his bat has gone cold after a real decent hot stretch.

A lot of Twins rookies have come up with a hot bat and then fizzeled out when the pitchers knew how to pitch to them.

Some time quickly, some times it took awhile.

[Dave Borton]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

In modern day baseball, a 25% K-rate is termed acceptable. In the old days, Harmon Killebrew led the league in strikeouts and K'd 21.3% of the time.

It's a good historical marker. I doubt that Killebrew ever got fed a diet of 97mph FBs from starters or 102mph relievers from an ever fresh BP.

"Third time thru the lineup" wasn't in the baseball lexicon in his era.

[Dave Borton]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Is this a philosophy that the Twins are trying to teach in the minors - very selective on pitches to hit with the downside being more SO's looking?

Who knows.

I cut Wallner and Julien some slack as rooks w/higher K rates. They are with the big boys now.

How they fare next year and year after when they approach 1000ABs will be telling.

[Woof Bronzer]

25 minutes ago, davidborton said:

It's a good historical marker. I doubt that Killebrew ever got fed a diet of 97mph FBs from starters or 102mph relievers from an ever fresh BP.

There was an interesting study done a few years ago showing that the way MPH is now calculated with better technology is different than it was in previous decades, and results in higher MPH.  I believe the article said a pitch calculated at 85 mph in the 1990s would calculate at 90 mph today.  So it might not be as simple as saying "everyone throws faster now".  (I wish I could find the article but can't, sorry.)

[LA Vikes Fan]

I actually was surprised at how not so horrible the data was. I thought it was worse. Take out Gallo, Garlick, Larnach, Taylor and Buxton and the only high SO people are the rookies Wallner and Julien. Both are rookies and you would expect their SO % to go down over time as they adjust to how they're being pitched. Gallo and Garlick are not on the Twins next year; Taylor and Larnach are iffy. Buxton is a complete question mark. The point is that you would expect to see improvement as a team next year just from the subtraction of some and the expected improvement of others. 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, insagt1 said:

Lots of called 3rd strikes especially with 3-2 counts. Don't have the stats but very often you see the guys hoping to get a walk and taking nearly 'perfect' pitches on corners for strike 3. Almost like umps 'know' the batter isn't going to swing.

The umpire's job is to call balls and strikes, not encourage the batter to swing. A ball just off the corner has a 50/50 chance of being called a strike. That's a .500 OBP if you take the pitch (which is elite). It's worth a 50% strikeout rate if you also have a .500 OBP.

[DJL44]

57 minutes ago, davidborton said:

I cut Wallner and Julien some slack as rooks w/higher K rates. They are with the big boys now.

They also have to make the adjustment to the larger strike zone in MLB versus AAA. The automated strike zone does the batters no favors for developing as a hitter.

[Dave Borton]

53 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I believe the article said a pitch calculated at 85 mph in the 1990s would calculate at 90 mph today. 

Surely could be. But what also must be considered. is innings pitched and the diminishing velo as game wears on.

As well, starting rotations used to consist of 4 starters. More chance to see them starters and figure it out.

I too would love more data to support the discussion both ways.

(Total inns/avg by starters over the year)

 

 

 

[Dave Borton]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They also have to make the adjustment to the larger strike zone in MLB versus AAA. The automated strike zone does the batters no favors for developing as a hitter.

As I understand it, at AAA game I attended. The ump called Bs/Ss. Catch has x number of appeals and that is when the Jumbotron showed the computer's rendition and call.

Is it different at lower levels?

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, davidborton said:

As I understand it, at AAA game I attended. The ump called Bs/Ss. Catch has x number of appeals and that is when the Jumbotron showed the computer's rendition and call.

Is it different at lower levels?

This is true, but the computer isn't calling the black part of the plate. The umpires (and hitters) know it and have shrunk the zone to match the computer.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, davidborton said:

As I understand it, at AAA game I attended. The ump called Bs/Ss. Catch has x number of appeals and that is when the Jumbotron showed the computer's rendition and call.

Is it different at lower levels?

Half of the games are robo calls and the other half the appeals are available. At the time of the Athletic article I read there were 5.2 walks per 9 in the robo call and 4.6 in the appeal. Both numbers are up but 5.2 walks per nine is way up. There were other problems with the system including consistency between venues as well as adapting to the individual strike zone of each batter.

My wonder is if this isn’t close to ready, how close is the one I see on TV. I would hope the AAA one used in actual games is better than the one I see on TV.

[insagt1]

AAA season is almost over and there have not been a lot of complaints or controversy about the robot umpire. Each team has used its 3 appeals at critical times. Its actually fun to see how often the 'real' ump got it right. Its a decent safety valve for the more egregious mistakes an ump can make (often aided by expert 'framing' by a catcher)

My 'observation' in watching games (both live in AAA and on TV for Twins and O's) has been (not scientific) that Twins hitters take a lot of 3-2 pitches that end up as strikes...not that the ump encourages batters to swing...but that good pitchers know how to paint the edges and hitters need to be aware they aren't going to get an 'easy walk'. Its more unusual for a hitter to get called out on a 3-2 pitch straight down the middle. But Gallo, for example, is clearly aware he has major problems making contact and he will take strike 3 on a close pitch. Sometimes he gets lucky and draws the walk.

There is also a human factor that will never appear in the 'stats'. Umps know the pitchers who are known for their pinpoint control and often they do get the benefit of the doubt on close pitches because they know thats exactly where the pitcher wanted it to go (Greg Maddux a perfect example) Hitters should know that too and be ready to swing and not try to wait it out.

Then there is the umps tendancies. Pretty early on the hitters should know that he is calling the 'high strike' or the 'outside strike' consistently...so don't try and get those calls. This is what makes the game so interesting. Some things just can't be explained away by the pages and pages of 'stats'. The human factor plays a role that allows us to yay and boo to our hearts content.

What does all this mean? Hit the damn ball. Make contact. Make the other guys make a mistake or  brilliant play.

Yeah, simple right?😉