3 X-Factors for the Twins in the Stretch Run

[Cody Christie]

The Twins have started to build a cushion in the AL Central, and the division is there for the taking. Here are three players who are X-factors for the club in the stretch run.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

Fans were frustrated when the Twins didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline. However, the front office had three succinct messages to reporters, including Minnesota’s performance was tied to the players already in the locker room. There is some truth to that message, but there are players that can push the team to even greater success in the season’s final weeks. 

MLB.com identified seven X-factors on playoff-contending teams that were quieter at the trade deadline. Some contending teams made deadline moves and have gone into a tailspin since the deadline. Other teams, like the Twins, didn’t make significant moves and will rely on internal improvements. Here are three Twins players that are X-factors for the stretch run. 

Carlos Correa, SS
X-Factor: Can he replicate last season’s hot finish?
Preseason projections placed Correa among the AL’s best in WAR with players like Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez. His first half was so poor that Jayson Stark put Correa in the conversation for the AL’s least-valuable player. The Twins have tried moving Correa to different spots in the line-up, but it hasn’t led to consistent offensive performance. According to FanGraphs, Correa ranks 11th on the Twins in WAR for position players, which is a far cry from the top of the American League. 

Last season, Correa had some ups and downs during his first year with the Twins before finding his swing late in the season. In September, he hit .355/.412/.589 (1.001) with eight doubles and seven home runs. Unfortunately, the rest of the Twins’ roster was imploding around him, and the team lost the division title. Correa expressed some frustration over the weekend when talking to reporters about his poor performance. The Twins need him to perform closer to his career totals, especially if the team makes the playoffs.  

Max Kepler, OF
X-Factor: Can he continue to surpass his offensive expectations?
During the offseason, it seemed likely for the Twins to trade Kepler, especially after the club signed Joey Gallo. The team’s depth chart was filled with younger options than Kepler that were left-handed hitting corner outfielders. Minnesota valued Kepler more than the offers they received, so they kept him on the roster, hoping he lived up to their expectations. Fans grew frustrated while Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner spent much of the season producing at a high level at Triple-A.

Over his last 30 games, Kepler seems to have put it together at the plate. He’s hit .300/.345/.573 (.917) with six doubles and eight home runs while taking over the team lead in home runs. He’s come up with some big hits in important games while posting a 1.08 WPA during his recent hot streak. Minnesota never expected Kepler to carry the team’s offense, but he can be a threat in the back half of the line-up that helps the team down the stretch. 

Caleb Thielbar, RP
X-Factor: Can he regain his dominant set-up form?
The Twins didn’t acquire any relief help at the trade deadline, which will put even more pressure on the arms in the room. Thielbar has missed a large chunk of the season with an oblique injury. He tried to return from the injury in early June, but he might have rushed back too soon because he quickly reinjured himself. Over the last three seasons, Thielbar has posted a 3.10 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in 157 innings. It’s clear that he has been one of the team’s top relief options, especially in late-inning situations. 

Teams rarely use every arm in the bullpen in the playoffs, making the late-inning options even more important. The Twins also don’t have many left-handed relief options outside of Thielbar. Jovani Moran struggled mightily in recent weeks before being demoted to Triple-A in favor of Brent Headrick. Minnesota will need Thielbar to get some critical outs versus left-handed batters that might decide whether or not the Twins win the division. 

Which X-factor is most important to the team’s success? Are there other X-factors on the roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Oldgoat_MN]

My X-factor player is Joey Gallo.

His batting average has gone down each month. July it was .128.  He id trending... poorly.

If you have an employee who cannot admit when they make a mistake that is very bad for your organization. If that person is a manager it is much worse. Falvine (I don't know whose decision this would be) cannot admit that this was a poor idea. It has eaten into playing time for players who might be better and will be available to us for years to come. Instead we get Gallo.

This doesn't excuse Rocco for putting him in the lineup again and again, but Rocco shouldn't even have that option at this point.

Joey Gallo might be a great guy. I certainly wish him no ill will and I get that his OPS is not as bad as some others. However, I cannot believe that this is what's best for the Minnesota Twins long term.

Yup, my X-factor guy is Gallo.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

One more X-factor player has to be Byron Buxton. Obviously if he comes back and is hitting like he has in previous years, that is a huge boost and would be tremendous.  However, particularly given the (SSS) evidence of the team performance since he has been injured and out of the lineup, I am actually more concerned in the other direction.  While he has been out, the lineup has been much more flexible and they have gotten better production from it.  If he returns and still isn't hitting consistently as a DH, he completely clogs up the lineup.  We can't have that if we want to continue to win games, series, and playoff games. 

My even larger concern is for Buxton's future.  It has been obvious for most of the year that Byron Buxton has not been performing well and that he seems to be affected by his body breaking down at pretty much every turn.  Put me in the club of keeping him out until he's actually healthy, even if that's the rest of the year.  If that isn't enough, hopefully an offseason of rest and treatment (and surgery?) can put him back on the right path.  If it can't, his career is in trouble and so are the Twins longer-term hopes.

[JD-TWINS]

No doubt - Royce Lewis!!

We’re used to CC - Buxton - Kepler and have stayed competitive with their wavy play. Same with piecing the Pen together without Thielbar.

Lewis hasn’t been available but we are all assuming he will come back - he’ll start routinely - he’ll be effective.

NEED Royce Lewis to contribute in September & beyond!!

How big an X-factor if he continues to hit .325 through the remainder of the season?

[RpR]

Lewis has played a total of 38 games in the Bigs; hot bats have come and gone, HUGE X factor.

[Dave The Dastardly]

FO and Rocco - or whoever is deciding who plays and who doesn't. IF the Twins are in the playoff chase and CC is still stinking up the batter's box, bench him and go with Lewis at short. Only makes sense if one of your two best defensive SS is hitting and the other isn't.

And Gallo has to go for the same reason; make room for somebody who's hitting. There's no room for dead weight on a play-off team, either just getting there or staying there once you're in.

[chpettit19]

Good to see another board instantly turned into a "Gallo needs to go!" board. We are nothing if not efficient around here. And I'm not judging, I definitely add to that chant. Just funny to me that we're able to turn every discussion into an anti-Gallo thread.

As for this article, I have Thielbar #1. The back end of this bullpen is by far my biggest concern. Do I trust the offense? Not really. But I trust them more than the bullpen, and there's a couple guys in AAA that could be possible helps. The bullpen is a currently kind of shaky to watch Jax and Duran plus a whole bunch of cross your fingers and hope. And there's nobody around as even decent possible upgrades. If Thielbar can get back to close to what he's been the last 2 years it'd be absolutely huge.

Hopefully come playoff time the starters are able to go 6+ in every game and the pen can just be Duran, Jax, and a hopefully resurgent Thielbar. Otherwise, I have no idea how they finish out playoff games.

[pierre75275]

I can't wait to see Lewis in with this offense now that it's started to click. 

He will be huge for this team once he gets back thru the end of the yr.

[mikelink45]

Duran and Ryan regaining their early season dominance.

[Karbo]

I think Ryan. With Ober struggling and Keuchel a big question mark they need Ryan to come back strong again.

[Major League Ready]

This could have been a top 10 list.

[Doctor Wu]

Lots of good comments. A healthy Buxton and Royce Lewis are obvious factors, continued productivity from Kepler and Jeffers and Wallner, another late season surge by Correa, a return to early season form by Duran, Gray, and Ober ... lots of pieces we need to come together, but I'm cautiously optimistic.