3 X-Factors for the Twins in the Stretch Run

Fans were frustrated when the Twins didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline. However, the front office had three succinct messages to reporters, including Minnesota’s performance was tied to the players already in the locker room. There is some truth to that message, but there are players that can push the team to even greater success in the season’s final weeks. 

MLB.com identified seven X-factors on playoff-contending teams that were quieter at the trade deadline. Some contending teams made deadline moves and have gone into a tailspin since the deadline. Other teams, like the Twins, didn’t make significant moves and will rely on internal improvements. Here are three Twins players that are X-factors for the stretch run. 

Carlos Correa, SS
X-Factor: Can he replicate last season’s hot finish?
Preseason projections placed Correa among the AL’s best in WAR with players like Aaron Judge and Jose Ramirez. His first half was so poor that Jayson Stark put Correa in the conversation for the AL’s least-valuable player. The Twins have tried moving Correa to different spots in the line-up, but it hasn’t led to consistent offensive performance. According to FanGraphs, Correa ranks 11th on the Twins in WAR for position players, which is a far cry from the top of the American League. 

Last season, Correa had some ups and downs during his first year with the Twins before finding his swing late in the season. In September, he hit .355/.412/.589 (1.001) with eight doubles and seven home runs. Unfortunately, the rest of the Twins’ roster was imploding around him, and the team lost the division title. Correa expressed some frustration over the weekend when talking to reporters about his poor performance. The Twins need him to perform closer to his career totals, especially if the team makes the playoffs.  

Max Kepler, OF
X-Factor: Can he continue to surpass his offensive expectations?
During the offseason, it seemed likely for the Twins to trade Kepler, especially after the club signed Joey Gallo. The team’s depth chart was filled with younger options than Kepler that were left-handed hitting corner outfielders. Minnesota valued Kepler more than the offers they received, so they kept him on the roster, hoping he lived up to their expectations. Fans grew frustrated while Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner spent much of the season producing at a high level at Triple-A.

Over his last 30 games, Kepler seems to have put it together at the plate. He’s hit .300/.345/.573 (.917) with six doubles and eight home runs while taking over the team lead in home runs. He’s come up with some big hits in important games while posting a 1.08 WPA during his recent hot streak. Minnesota never expected Kepler to carry the team’s offense, but he can be a threat in the back half of the line-up that helps the team down the stretch. 

Caleb Thielbar, RP
X-Factor: Can he regain his dominant set-up form?
The Twins didn’t acquire any relief help at the trade deadline, which will put even more pressure on the arms in the room. Thielbar has missed a large chunk of the season with an oblique injury. He tried to return from the injury in early June, but he might have rushed back too soon because he quickly reinjured himself. Over the last three seasons, Thielbar has posted a 3.10 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in 157 innings. It’s clear that he has been one of the team’s top relief options, especially in late-inning situations. 

Teams rarely use every arm in the bullpen in the playoffs, making the late-inning options even more important. The Twins also don’t have many left-handed relief options outside of Thielbar. Jovani Moran struggled mightily in recent weeks before being demoted to Triple-A in favor of Brent Headrick. Minnesota will need Thielbar to get some critical outs versus left-handed batters that might decide whether or not the Twins win the division. 

Which X-factor is most important to the team’s success? Are there other X-factors on the roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.