Expect a Boring Trade Deadline for the Minnesota Twins

[jorgenswest]

I hope it is boring.

I hope any trade is of the parallel type. Trading out Lopez for Floro is a parallel trade. They really need to avoid selling low on Miranda for a rental. We don’t know how much that shoulder has impacted his season and they need that right handed bat. I don’t want to sell low on Larnach either. If they package one Larnach or Wallner for a similarly aged right handed OF that would be a parallel trade.

The best hopes for them are on the roster already. They need Kepler to be a league average RF which is possible. They need to get Buxton back in CF even it it means he is there once a series, DHs once and rests the third game. That gives some DH space for Wallner and Julien. They need Polanco to come back healthy and hit. They Stewart to come back throwing like he was in the first half. They need to give Gallo’s spot to Larnach and Wallner.

I see the Angels trading two of their best prospects. I was advocating for those moves last year. This year I hope for boring.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I hope it is boring.

I hope any trade is of the parallel type. Trading out Lopez for Floro is a parallel trade. They really need to avoid selling low on Miranda for a rental. We don’t know how much that shoulder has impacted his season and they need that right handed bat. I don’t want to sell low on Larnach either. If they package one Larnach or Wallner for a similarly aged right handed OF that would be a parallel trade.

The best hopes for them are on the roster already. They need Kepler to be a league average RF which is possible. They need to get Buxton back in CF even it it means he is there once a series, DHs once and rests the third game. That gives some DH space for Wallner and Julien. They need Polanco to come back healthy and hit. They Stewart to come back throwing like he was in the first half. They need to give Gallo’s spot to Larnach and Wallner.

I see the Angels trading two of their best prospects. I was advocating for those moves last year. This year I hope for boring.

Where do you see Miranda playing with Lee, Lewis, Severino, Castro, Farmer on the roster (and maybe Polanco and Julien both being on it next year)? Because none of those are playing SS......and at least two of those are 2B, leaving Lee and Severino and Lewis for 3B....

[jmlease1]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where do you see Miranda playing with Lee, Lewis, Severino, Castro, Farmer on the roster (and maybe Polanco and Julien both being on it next year)? Because none of those are playing SS......and at least two of those are 2B, leaving Lee and Severino and Lewis for 3B....

Right now I see Miranda starting the season in AAA trying to rebuild his value to the team and on the trade market..

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Right now I see Miranda starting the season in AAA trying to rebuild his value to the team and on the trade market..

That makes more sense than some others have made here! A lot more.

[RpR]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Neither can hit....why? 

They are not a crap-shoot.

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where do you see Miranda playing with Lee, Lewis, Severino, Castro, Farmer on the roster (and maybe Polanco and Julien both being on it next year)? Because none of those are playing SS......and at least two of those are 2B, leaving Lee and Severino and Lewis for 3B....

You can add Gordon to the list. There is always a place for the Miranda we saw last year. They have 13 spots for hitters. There will be injuries and slumps. Severino is a long way a way with his strike out rate and poor glove. I don’t put much faith in a good minor league OPS with poor strike out walk numbers. Lee may come up and show he needs more time. It might be 2025 before he is a regular. Farmer turns 33 next month. I don’t see a log jam for a good hitter.

[jorgenswest]

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Right now I see Miranda starting the season in AAA trying to rebuild his value to the team and on the trade market..

If he is the hitter he was in 21-22 they will keep him. There will be a spot on the roster.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

This site would have ripped them to shreds for trading Miranda last year.....shreds. 

Cano was brutal here, agreed, no one thought he'd be like this. If other teams thought he'd be this good, MN could have traded him for a ton a good prospect at the deadline, not thrown him into a deal.

100%. Last year at this time, Jose Miranda was destroying MLB pitching, having come off an excellent June and an even better July. He looked like a core player for the future and was starting every day and deserving it. It's only 20/20 hindsight that says "we should dealt Miranda and Gordon" last season. (Nick was also coming off very good months in June and July at the deadline last season and was one of the few guys who could stay healthy...)

Cano was also brutal last year in Balto. He completely retooled his game this season and anyone who says they saw his success coming in this fashion is just lying.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, jorgenswest said:

You can add Gordon to the list. There is always a place for the Miranda we saw last year. They have 13 spots for hitters. There will be injuries and slumps. Severino is a long way a way with his strike out rate and poor glove. I don’t put much faith in a good minor league OPS with poor strike out walk numbers. Lee may come up and show he needs more time. It might be 2025 before he is a regular. Farmer turns 33 next month. I don’t see a log jam for a good hitter.

I'll be shocked if Gordon is on this roster next year. 

Miranda is no better fielder than Severino, is he? 

And Lewis, where do you see him next year? Miranda's fall started last year as the season went on. I'm not convinced. 

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'll be shocked if Gordon is on this roster next year. 

Miranda is no better fielder than Severino, is he? 

And Lewis, where do you see him next year? Miranda's fall started last year as the season went on. I'm not convinced. 

There is space for all of these players as long as they hit. I read so often of the crunch that never comes. This year they may have as many as 18 players with 100 plate appearances (Lewis and Gordon in the 90s and Wallner 10 starts away). They need a lot of good hitters. I am not trading a guy like Miranda or Severino that have options left and have more upside than anyone they will get for the short term.

As for Gordon I have much more faith in his statcast number than the for too small sample to look at slash stats from this year. With his speed his BABIP will be over .300 and not .179. I think he is much more likely to hit like the 22 Gordon next year. The walk rate is too low but that is something that goes up with plate appearances.

I don’t think it is wise to look at this partial season without giving more weight to the bigger picture 3 year look. That is why I want to avoid Thomas and Candelario and also want to avoid selling low on upside for a short term rental. I will swap upside for upside though if they move Miranda or Larnach or Wallner for a player with similar age and control that is a better fit on the roster.

They will need over 15 position players and maybe as many as 20 next year that can help win games. There is a place for Miranda, Gordon, Severino and Lewis.

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They will need over 15 position players and maybe as many as 20 next year that can help win games. There is a place for Miranda, Gordon, Severino and Lewis.

They also have Castro and Farmer.  Plus, Lee and a few other potential replacements that are not far off in Prato / Hellman and Schobel.  That does not mean they have to trade them for rentals.  They could attempt a deal for ML and Milb assets like they did with Arraez.  For example, how about Gallo plus one of Severino / Gordon / Prato / Schobel for one of the Astros OF prospects that are not far off.  

[jorgenswest]

12 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

They also have Castro and Farmer.  Plus, Lee and a few other potential replacements that are not far off in Prato / Hellman and Schobel.  That does not mean they have to trade them for rentals.  They could attempt a deal for ML and Milb assets like they did with Arraez.  For example, how about Gallo plus one of Severino / Gordon / Prato / Schobel for one of the Astros OF prospects that are not far off.  

If the Astros are interested in Gallo I am in. That sounds like a parallel trade of prospects for which I am an advocate.

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

There is space for all of these players as long as they hit. I read so often of the crunch that never comes. This year they may have as many as 18 players with 100 plate appearances (Lewis and Gordon in the 90s and Wallner 10 starts away). They need a lot of good hitters. I am not trading a guy like Miranda or Severino that have options left and have more upside than anyone they will get for the short term.

As for Gordon I have much more faith in his statcast number than the for too small sample to look at slash stats from this year. With his speed his BABIP will be over .300 and not .179. I think he is much more likely to hit like the 22 Gordon next year. The walk rate is too low but that is something that goes up with plate appearances.

I don’t think it is wise to look at this partial season without giving more weight to the bigger picture 3 year look. That is why I want to avoid Thomas and Candelario and also want to avoid selling low on upside for a short term rental. I will swap upside for upside though if they move Miranda or Larnach or Wallner for a player with similar age and control that is a better fit on the roster.

They will need over 15 position players and maybe as many as 20 next year that can help win games. There is a place for Miranda, Gordon, Severino and Lewis.

Those players aren't interchangeable. Miranda has, if we're generous, two defensive homes. One is third, with Lewis and Lee and Severino and Prato and Farmer and Castro. One is first, competing with AK, possibly others. He's not getting DH time with Buxton and Julien and Wallner here. As for there never being a bottle neck, Julien was in AAA until polanco got hurt. Wallner has sat in AAA while Gallo played. 

[jorgenswest]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Those players aren't interchangeable. Miranda has, if we're generous, two defensive homes. One is third, with Lewis and Lee and Severino and Prato and Farmer and Castro. One is first, competing with AK, possibly others. He's not getting DH time with Buxton and Julien and Wallner here. As for there never being a bottle neck, Julien was in AAA until polanco got hurt. Wallner has sat in AAA while Gallo played. 

Julien will get significant plate appearances this year. Wallner is getting his opportunity. 

Last year the same was said about Steer. If he were still on the roster he would have hit his way into at bats. Hitters will emerge. Every year the number of opportunities is greater than the supply of hitters. I am not selling any young player with upside in fear of no place to play in return for a rental. Not this year.

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

As for there never being a bottle neck, Julien was in AAA until polanco got hurt. Wallner has sat in AAA while Gallo played. 

"Bottle necks" are mostly imaginary. Nobody that demonstrates the ability to hit gets blocked for long, if at all. In rare cases where it does happen, it's a good problem, not a bad one.

Julien had 38 games and 178 PAs in his first AAA opportunity. He was never blocked and would have been up by now regardless Polanco's health. 

Wallner will continue to get opportunities in Minnesota unless he plays his way out of them.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

"Bottle necks" are mostly imaginary. Nobody that demonstrates the ability to hit gets blocked for long, if at all. In rare cases where it does happen, it's a good problem, not a bad one.

Julien had 38 games and 178 PAs in his first AAA opportunity. He was never blocked and would have been up by now regardless Polanco's health. 

Based on what evidence? All the other guys getting promoted this year? Where would he be playing if polanco was never hurt?

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Give me a right handed corner outfielder who can hit lefties and maybe another left handed pen pitcher.

 

To play when and where? I've seen no inclination of this team to even platoon Kepler or Gallo let alone replacing them.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Julien will get significant plate appearances this year. Wallner is getting his opportunity. 

Last year the same was said about Steer. If he were still on the roster he would have hit his way into at bats. Hitters will emerge. Every year the number of opportunities is greater than the supply of hitters. I am not selling any young player with upside in fear of no place to play in return for a rental. Not this year.

There literally would not even be room for all those guys on this years forty man....

[jorgenswest]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

There literally would not even be room for all those guys on this years forty man....

Who is not on the 40 that should be this year?

Lee and Severino? They would need to be destroying AA and they really aren’t. Look at Severino’s strike out rate. His 132 WRC+ is good but not unusual. Lee’s is 122. Jake Cave is at 170 in AAA. These numbers aren’t very helpful in determining readiness.

Do you mean if they kept Steer? They have had guys that they could put on the 60 day IL when they need space. They haven’t needed it. There is no roster crunch. There won’t be next year.

[AWOLNATION_11]

Probably not the thread for this, but kind of on the topic of finding at-bats for guys.  What is roster move expected with Polanco's impending activation?  I'm crossing my fingers this is finally the Gallo DFA tipping point.  Has to be one of Gallo DFA or optioning of Wallner or Castro right? 

 

[Vanimal46]

The only spice I would seek this year is shopping the guys on expiring contracts. They might get blown away by an offer from a pitching starved team.  

[farmerguychris]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

To play when and where? I've seen no inclination of this team to even platoon Kepler or Gallo let alone replacing them.

So are you recommending we should do nothing, or that we will do nothing?

[Brandon]

Honestly if we can get a rh bat I would be happy especially when we get our own players back from injury.

[USAFChief]

32 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Based on what evidence? All the other guys getting promoted this year? Where would he be playing if polanco was never hurt?

They're literally considering moving Jorge Polanco to third. Jorge Polanco. 

In favor of Julien.

Hitting gets you in the lineup, always, everywhere.

 

[Craig Arko]

I get the inkling that if Joey Gallo was somehow moved that people here would be beside themselves with glee. So that could make it not boring.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

They're literally considering moving Jorge Polanco to third. Jorge Polanco. 

In favor of Julien.

Hitting gets you in the lineup, always, everywhere.

 

Sure, but only because Polanco was hurt...do we think they'd move him w/o that? We're just going to disagree, since all Wallner does is hit at every level, and he's not able to beat out Gallo on this roster....

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Who is not on the 40 that should be this year?

Lee and Severino? They would need to be destroying AA and they really aren’t. Look at Severino’s strike out rate. His 132 WRC+ is good but not unusual. Lee’s is 122. Jake Cave is at 170 in AAA. These numbers aren’t very helpful in determining readiness.

Do you mean if they kept Steer? They have had guys that they could put on the 60 day IL when they need space. They haven’t needed it. There is no roster crunch. There won’t be next year.

If they keep Steer and CES......they'd have to clear that space in the off season, not with the 60 day.....

[jorgenswest]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they keep Steer and CES......they'd have to clear that space in the off season, not with the 60 day.....

We have to get this back on track.

As for last off season from my memory they were using at least one 40 man spot to sign and DFA guys like Dennis Santana. Did that help? They could have waited about a week and signed Solano when the 60 was available or maybe Steer hits his way into Solano’s spot. That is at least two. Of course they don’t have Mahle that might be three but they probably add a different starter. Maybe it would have been so tight that they don’t sign Gallo. Darn.

As for next year and my hope for this year’s boring deadline I would be willing to sell Prato or Williams or Stevenson or Helman. It will be tough to find a space for them this winter. I also don’t think they lose any to rule 5 though Stevenson would be a free agent. Prato isn’t really a sell high. Including his AA his OPS is at his career average and below .800. Williams isn’t a catcher and would really need to hit to have a major league job. Stevenson has played 5 different seasons in the majors. Helman is already 27. If they want to sell any of those players for a rental reliever I am in. That would be a boring deal.

[nicksaviking]

35 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

So are you recommending we should do nothing, or that we will do nothing?

If they are unwilling to bench or cut the veteran corner outfielders, what is there to do?

I've also yet to hear a realistic name that people would like who wasn't a poor player last year. Evaluating these players solely on how they have played for four months with their current team is a poor way to predict how they'll play on the new team.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

We have to get this back on track.

As for last off season from my memory they were using at least one 40 man spot to sign and DFA guys like Dennis Santana. Did that help? They could have waited about a week and signed Solano when the 60 was available or maybe Steer hits his way into Solano’s spot. That is at least two. Of course they don’t have Mahle that might be three but they probably add a different starter. Maybe it would have been so tight that they don’t sign Gallo. Darn.

As for next year and my hope for this year’s boring deadline I would be willing to sell Prato or Williams or Stevenson or Helman. It will be tough to find a space for them this winter. I also don’t think they lose any to rule 5 though Stevenson would be a free agent. Prato isn’t really a sell high. Including his AA his OPS is at his career average and below .800. Williams isn’t a catcher and would really need to hit to have a major league job. Stevenson has played 5 different seasons in the majors. Helman is already 27. If they want to sell any of those players for a rental reliever I am in. That would be a boring deal.

I mean, I'd trade any hitter in AAA right now.....they mostly seem hurt (Miranda / Austin) or AAAA quality (and, as you point out, not young). They don't appear to be willing to give Prato a shot this year, even with LF and 3B basically a black hole right now, so I'm not sure why you don't try to get something for these guys. So, yes, we agree on that for sure.

Plus, that opens space in AAA for Lee, Severino, and Kiersey (who isnt getting any younger).