Emmanuel Rodriguez is Reestablishing Himself as One of Baseball’s Top Prospects

[Cody Christie]

Many national outlets took notice of Emmanuel Rodriguez during his breakout 2022 campaign. Don’t look now, but he might be on the cusp of an even better season in 2023. 

 

Image courtesy of Steve Buhr, Twins Daily

The Twins signed Emmanuel Rodriguez during the 2019 international signing period for $2.5 million. At the time, MLB.com called him the “next Eddie Rosario,” which may have conjured up some mixed feelings for Minnesota fans. As a 16-year-old, Rodriguez showcased many skills that were comparable to Eddie Rosario . His powerful swing could spray the ball around the field, and he had a strong outfield arm. He was considered one of the top international players during his signing period, and the Twins hoped his advanced approach would help him during his professional debut. 

Unfortunately, the pandemic meant he didn’t debut until the 2021 season in the FCL. In 37 games, he hit .214/.346/.524 (.870) with five doubles, two triples, and ten home runs. His 23 walks helped improve his overall on-base percentage, and he went 9-for-13 in stolen base opportunities. His biggest issue was that he struck out 56 times in 126 at-bats, which was more swing-and-miss than an organization wants from a young player. It was a decent debut, but he hadn’t placed himself among the team’s top prospects. 

Minnesota sent Rodriguez to the Florida State League in 2022, where he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition. In 47 games, he hit .272/.493/.552 (1.044) with five doubles, three triples, and nine home runs. He continued to show an advanced approach at the plate and drew more walks (57) than strikeouts (52). His numbers are even more impressive because he only faced younger pitchers in four plate appearances for the season. His season was cut short when he tore the meniscus in his right knee while sliding into a base. It was a disappointing end to a season that put him in the conversation as a top prospect. 

Entering the 2023 season, Emmanuel Rodriguez was among baseball’s Top-100 prospects, according to the three major national outlets. Baseball Prospectus (42nd) and Baseball America (46th) had him among the Top 50, while MLB.com ranked him 88th overall. At Twins Daily, Rodriguez ranked as the third-best prospect in the Twins organization behind Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis. Different outlets value certain traits when it comes to ranking minor league players. Some prefer a player who has proven himself in the upper levels of the minors, and others prefer to consider a player’s overall ceiling. Clearly, Rodriguez was a player that evaluators would watch closely throughout the 2023 campaign. 

Rodriguez had an interesting start to the season with Cedar Rapids. In his first seven games, he went 5-for-27 (.185 BA) with 17 strikeouts in 34 plate appearances. All five of his hits went for extra bases, including three home runs which resulted in a .953 OPS. He was placed on the Injured List (IL) with a strained left abdomen and didn’t appear in a game from April 15th to May 6th. There were struggles at the plate when he returned from the IL. In 20 games during May, he posted a .572 OPS with three extra-base hits and a 30-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Core muscle injuries can linger, which might have been one reason for Rodriguez’s struggles. 

Rodriguez began to find his offensive stroke as the calendar flipped to June. In the month's first 20 games, he hit .315/.452/.589 (1.041) with three doubles, one triple, and five home runs. He posted a significantly improved 19-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio while being a perfect six-for-six in stolen base attempts. The Kernels continue to use him in center field regularly, but he has also made four starts in right field for the first time in his professional career. Even with time on the IL, he has played in more games than any other professional season, and he’s started to showcase all five tools. 

Royce Lewis recently graduatd from prospect eligibility, putting Rodriguez in the conversation as the organization’s top prospect. Rodriguez must prove that his hot hitting in June is not a fluke and that he can continue to thrive while facing older pitching. By season’s end, he has an opportunity to be among baseball’s Top 25 prospects, but there is still work to be done in 2023. 

What impressions do you have regarding Emmanuel Rodriguez over the last two seasons? Would you rank him as the organization’s top overall prospect? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[TopGunn#22]

He has great potential and as fans it's always nice to dream.  What is his projected timetable to advance above Cedar Rapids?  It's the same question Twins fans would have for Brooks Lee...when is he coming to St. Paul?  Do you need to DOMINATE a level before moving up or do you just need to show steady improvement and better consistency?  

[Guest]

Right now Rodriguez' ceiling looks like a lefthanded hitting Joey Gallo.  Has to learn to control the strike zone better.

[GKuehl]

4 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Right now Rodriguez' ceiling looks like a lefthanded hitting Joey Gallo.  Has to learn to control the strike zone better.

So just Joey Gallo? 

[Linus]

This is not a complaint rather a request. When writing these profiles please include other facets of his play besides hitting. In this case it would be nice to know if he is a reach to stay in center arm strength etc. 

[Fatbat]

Is he still 5’ 10” tall or did he grow a bit? Hows his defense? Routes?

[sftwinsfan]

Saw this and was hoping he was still hot, nope. Looks like he's riding at least an 0-19 with 11K's from 6/25-7/4. Talented, but definitely a work in progress. 

[nclahammer]

Watching Emmanuel Rodriguez  play in three consecutive games at the end of June, he showed excellent coverage in centerfield; good speed and took good routes.  He was a bit lackadaisical on one outfield play, and while taking a terrific route, he dropped the ball for an error.  That seemed to be the exception rather than the rule.  His arm was strong and his throws seemed accurate.   Met him after the first game we saw, and "Yes" he is still every bit of 5'10" (a little taller than I am.)  Rodriguez does appear to be utilizing the Kernels new weight room in The Anex right next door their stadium New Facility for Kernels.  You have to remember that the kid just turned twenty in February, this is his third professional season.  Rodriguez had more walks than strikeouts last season (52K/57BB), but it was/is the other way around during his first season (56K/23BB) and this season (76K/49BB.)  IMO he already has much more, and will have much more, to his game than just the three predicted outcomes of a Joey Gallo.  Give him some time.

[tony&rodney]

Agree with the previous post that Emmanuel has much to offer but needs time to develop as a player.

I have watched quite a few of his at bats (milb.com) this year and he has shown an ability to adapt. One possible weakness may be his desire to go yard with runners on base, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. He takes some long swings at times. I'm hoping he can learn when to just drive the ball with contact versus his occasional attempts to hit it over 400 feet. The future is still really bright for him and he will benefit from the ABS umpires too because he seems to have an excellent eye at the plate.

[2wins87]

20 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Right now Rodriguez' ceiling looks like a lefthanded hitting Joey Gallo.  Has to learn to control the strike zone better.

He's actually super advanced at controlling the strike zone with a walk rate around 20% (Gallo is pretty good at it too, fwiw), he just has a lot of swing and miss in his game.

[jkcarew]

The talent has been on full display…as have the potential issues. Long way to go.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

He's actually super advanced at controlling the strike zone with a walk rate around 20% (Gallo is pretty good at it too, fwiw), he just has a lot of swing and miss in his game.

Ok, point taken, sort of.  If a hitter has a lot of swing-and-miss in the low minors, he's going to have even more at higher levels unless he improves pitch selection and plate discipline.  To me, controlling the strike zone exceptionally well means more walks than strikeouts.  The Twins have plenty of guys with nice walk rates, but their SO rates are over the moon.  Gallo is a case in point.  To me, a walk is a plus, but not putting the ball in play offsets a walk's value.  I'm sure there's a sabermetrician who can show me where I'm not thinking this issue all the way through.  I am sure, however, there's a positive correlation at the MLB level between higher team w-l percentage and lower SO/W ratios.

[2wins87]

13 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Ok, point taken, sort of.  If a hitter has a lot of swing-and-miss in the low minors, he's going to have even more at higher levels unless he improves pitch selection and plate discipline.  To me, controlling the strike zone exceptionally well means more walks than strikeouts.  The Twins have plenty of guys with nice walk rates, but their SO rates are over the moon.  Gallo is a case in point.  To me, a walk is a plus, but not putting the ball in play offsets a walk's value.  I'm sure there's a sabermetrician who can show me where I'm not thinking this issue all the way through.  I am sure, however, there's a positive correlation at the MLB level between higher team w-l percentage and lower SO/W ratios.

I just think it's a swing thing.  Rodriguez did have more walks than Ks last year.  If anything his issue might be closer to Julien who can sometimes get into 2 strike counts by being a little too selective early.  Rodriguez could probably work on two strike approach, but the most improvement might come from swing tweaks.

There is no amount of plate discipline that could keep Joey Gallo from striking out a lot.  He can't get to high fastballs that are in the zone.  He misses other pitches inside the zone fairly often as well.

I don't think a Sabermetrician would disagree with you on the SO/W correlation.  Individual players can still excel if they do a lot of other things well, but it's pretty predictive for prospects as well.

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I just think it's a swing thing.  Rodriguez did have more walks than Ks last year.  If anything his issue might be closer to Julien who can sometimes get into 2 strike counts by being a little too selective early.  Rodriguez could probably work on two strike approach, but the most improvement might come from swing tweaks.

There is no amount of plate discipline that could keep Joey Gallo from striking out a lot.  He can't get to high fastballs that are in the zone.  He misses other pitches inside the zone fairly often as well.

This is exactly correct. I see no similarity between the swings of Gallo and Rodriguez. They are different players who share high strike out rates. Gallo has had some success at the MLB level, but E-Rod has a long way to go. I like his chances though right now. All minor league players must learn how to play professional baseball. The separation between amateur and pro ball is huge, and the adjustment to playing every day is very challenging. 

[jkcarew]

23 hours ago, sftwinsfan said:

Saw this and was hoping he was still hot, nope. Looks like he's riding at least an 0-19 with 11K's from 6/25-7/4. Talented, but definitely a work in progress. 

1 for his last 25…and K’ing at a 46% clip over the last 9 games.

Bottom line, I don’t think he’s helped or hurt his prospect status this year. Very young for A+ ball…and spectacularly uneven in his performance. He’s the kind of guy for whom I would expect opinions to vary significantly. Wouldn’t surprise me if he flamed out completely, wouldn’t surprise me if he was an mlb All-Star.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 E-Rod has a long way to go. I like his chances though right now.

Why do all Twins prospects under this FO always have a long ways to go? They only guy they have brought up younger than 23 was Arraez (2019). They brought up Celestino as well but it is hard to count him.