Series Preview (@BAL 6/30-7/2): When the Smoke Clears, will the Twins' Season Still be Alive?

[Steven Trefz]

The Minnesota Twins face the Baltimore Orioles this weekend with desperation in the clubhouse and the fanbase. The smoke from the Canadian wildfires threatens the series, but the Twins' performance on the field threatens the season. The Orioles haven't been lighting the league on fire lately, either. Can the Twins ride into the Charm City and recapture the AL Central lead over the weekend? 

Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Like Twins manager Rocco Baldelli, I don't have words for the last stretch of Twins baseball. That makes it challenging to write an article, but I'll do it anyway so that everyone can vent or cheer as relevant.

The Twins will enter Friday night's game in first place thanks to a Guardians team broiled in its own struggles and emotional drama. For the Twins, last week was as low as they've been all season, leading to a closed-door, players-only meeting. I will allow you to comment on what good a players-only meeting does. Here are Baldelli's thoughts on the week thus far:

We love baseball because the season is only half over after Friday night, and the glass can still be half full! The Twins have had second-half turnarounds before, and there isn't a way to prove it can't happen again. Could this be the moment that wakes the team or seals their fate? The 48-31 Baltimore Orioles will have something to say about that answer as the Twins enter Camden Yards.

Familiar faces abound on the Orioles roster (Thanks to Seth Stohs @sethtweets for his Twins Almanac skills):

RP Yennier Cano, SP Kyle Gibson, SP Tyler Wells, RP Danny Coulombe, and CF Aaron Hicks. Hicks in particular has regained his dynamic form since being released from the beard-care rules of the Yankees organization. Gibson leads a rotation in the way that the Twins always hoped he would. Cano and Coulombe would look nice in our bullpen right now. And I didn't even remember Wells, but now I'm sad about it.

 

Not to mention Minnesota area connections with Terrin Vavra (Currently on the IL, but son of coach Joe Vavra and a former Gopher has played 2B, 3B, LF and RF this year), RP Mike Baumann (From Mahtomedi), and backup catcher Anthony Bemboom (from Sauk Rapids).

 

The Orioles are led offensively by their outfielders, Austin Hays, Hicks, Anthony Santander, and Cedric Mullins, who are all posting an OPS over .800 with the O's this year. Catcher Adley Rutschman is living up the hype of a first pick, and managing the pitching staff well.

Weather Factor: Smoky! Hot, with temps in the high 80's to low 90's. Visibility and air quality could be huge issues for the teams and the fans. Rain enters the forecast for Sunday's game but would only delay at best.

Pitching Probables

Game 1 – Monday, June 26th, 2023 – 6:05 pm CDT –  Twins RHP Pablo Lopez (3-5, 4.41 ERA) has experienced the brunt of the Twins offensive woes. The reality, unfortunately, is that Lopez is also doing exactly what he's done over the past few seasons. He's been a sub-.500 pitcher with an ERA of 4.01 over 110 games. Bad luck has been discussed, and advanced stats paint a prettier picture than the reality: Lopez isn't a game-changing arm. The Twins will need at least five runs to win this game, and they've only accomplished that three times in their last 15 games. Seriously.

The Orioles send RHP Dean Kremer (8-3, 4.50 ERA) to the mound to face Lopez, and Kremer is trending in the opposite direction as the season progresses. Unlike Lopez, Kremer's ERA is sinking over his last seven starts, and he's winning games. Kremer's OPS allowed is higher, and he is giving up harder contact, but it's not leading to ballooned innings, and his offense scores runs. Statcast all you want, Kremer has been a superior pitcher this season for his team, and he's licking his chops to face the Twins lineup.

Expect a heavy left-handed lineup for the Twins on Friday night. I don't see the drama of the past week changing the company line against right or left-handed starters and relievers any time soon. That strategy will go down with the ship.

Game 2 – Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 3:05 pm CDT -  Twins RHP Bailey Ober (4-4, 2.97 ERA) takes the mid-afternoon stage against Orioles RHP Kyle Bradish (4-3, 3.75 ERA). The two pitchers look like clones with similar innings, strikeouts, and WHIP on paper. This looks like the rubber match that will determine the series on paper. The fallout from Friday night's game lingers into this game and will play a role in the potential for victory.

Game 3 - Sunday, July 2nd, 2023 – 11:05 am CDT - This is the game in the series that the Twins need to win. Arguments can be made that taking one out of three in this series is just fine. But getting swept could be catastrophic.

The Twins send RHP Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.67 ERA) out to bring home the victory. Win the series, and he's one of the main reasons the Twins still have hopes of claiming the division. Lose this game, and it might be one of Gray's last games to pitch with the squad as the trade deadline looms.

Orioles LHP Cole Irvin (1-3, 7.18 ERA) attempts to play the role of spoiler on Sunday. As a left-handed pitcher, we can automatically toss his statistics against other teams.

Prediction Time!
The wheels are falling off the Twins bandwagon. Will any be left for the team to return to Target Field before the All-Star Break? Will MLB postpone the games, or will the players play in an empty stadium? Will the haze lift to find the Twins have emerged stronger and more together, having walked through the fire together, or has the window closed and the oxygen run out on the current roster and staff? Leave your thoughts in the comments. 

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[Mike Sixel]

The season won't be over if they get swept....

That said, no moves coming? Well, that's peachy. Just. Peachy. 

[pierre75275]

Just because they get swept, won't make their season over.

 

Their anemic offense might make their season over. That being said, I really don't anticipate a better showing than what this team showed what they were capable of in ATL, with similar results 

[adorduan]

Still alive, but getting wheeled into the ER and getting hooked up to oxygen and heart rate monitor.

[Dantes929]

The pieces are still there for a good offense.   Pitching is pretty good.   Almost all winning seasons for the Twins have been about treading water and then having a couple hot streaks.   I can't imagine the next 9 games knocking them out of contention.   If they lose most of them then it will just be a good time for the All Star break.      Some years I have been frustrated by the Break because of how well the team was playing.  Some years it has been welcome as a reset.

[2wins87]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The season won't be over if they get swept....

That said, no moves coming? Well, that's peachy. Just. Peachy. 

Yeah the schedule gets pretty easy for most of the remaining season.  They could probably muddle through as a very mediocre offense and still have a very good shot at the division.

The offense just getting worse is really disheartening though.  Ultimately Buxton and Correa will need to be better, but I'm ready to see more from guys who might actually help the team in future seasons.  At this point it really can't hurt.

[terrydactyls]

The Twins will get swept by the Orioles but it won't end the season for them.  By that is only because they are contractually obligated to complete the season.  The should have a large sign on their home page that reads:

FOR SALE

Jorge Polanco

Joey Gallo

Max Kepler

Sonny Gray

Kenta Madea

Michael A. Taylor

Emilio Pagan

Christian Vasquez

Kyle Farmer

Willie Castro

Donovan Solano

ANY REASONABLE OFFER WILL BE Accepted

If, from all the names above, the Twins can pick up some young, talented AA and AAA players, I would be happy.  Those that no one wants can be benched, DFA'd, or used sparingly as starters.  Time to start the transformation to a solid team.

(One other thing.  DON'T DRAFT ANOTHER POSITION-LESS SLUGGER!)

 

[chpettit19]

51 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

The Twins will get swept by the Orioles but it won't end the season for them.  By that is only because they are contractually obligated to complete the season.  The should have a large sign on their home page that reads:

FOR SALE

Jorge Polanco

Joey Gallo

Max Kepler

Sonny Gray

Kenta Madea

Michael A. Taylor

Emilio Pagan

Christian Vasquez

Kyle Farmer

Willie Castro

Donovan Solano

ANY REASONABLE OFFER WILL BE Accepted

If, from all the names above, the Twins can pick up some young, talented AA and AAA players, I would be happy.  Those that no one wants can be benched, DFA'd, or used sparingly as starters.  Time to start the transformation to a solid team.

(One other thing.  DON'T DRAFT ANOTHER POSITION-LESS SLUGGER!)

 

What's your reasoning for trading Castro? I've seen a few people suggest it, so I'm curious as to why that'd be the desire. To me, he's the perfect 26th man for a roster, and I'd keep him. Curious why people want to move him.

[TwinsDr2021]

Pablo Lopez just seen tonight lineup and said Kepler and Gallo both starting, f'n awsome!

[chinmusic]

On the lighter side.... I can guarantee with ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY  that Correa will not hit into a DP in his first AB (see lineup)  No such claim will be made regarding subsequent at bats.

[Teflon]

As we play Baltimore on Saturday, time will be running out on the payment owed the Twins by Bally's Sports in order to keep broadcasting their games. Bally's hasn't announced that they won't be making the payment and, if the situation with the D-Backs is any indication, there's probably more negotiations to come. I hope not. It's time for Bally's limited streaming coverage to be replaced with something more accessible (MLB.com) for the remainder of the season. Anyway, slight chance we may be seeing the last Bally's broadcast of a Twins game this weekend. Fingers crossed.

[Steven Trefz]

5 hours ago, Teflon said:

As we play Baltimore on Saturday, time will be running out on the payment owed the Twins by Bally's Sports in order to keep broadcasting their games. Bally's hasn't announced that they won't be making the payment and, if the situation with the D-Backs is any indication, there's probably more negotiations to come. I hope not. It's time for Bally's limited streaming coverage to be replaced with something more accessible (MLB.com) for the remainder of the season. Anyway, slight chance we may be seeing the last Bally's broadcast of a Twins game this weekend. Fingers crossed.

So I might have to do my Sunday recap based only on radio….

Be prepared for three hundred words about Danny and Cory’s preparations for their dual birthday July 7th!  That’s what half of tonight’s broadcast was, and if it means me are winning by seven runs I’m glad to hear it!

[terrydactyls]

18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What's your reasoning for trading Castro? I've seen a few people suggest it, so I'm curious as to why that'd be the desire. To me, he's the perfect 26th man for a roster, and I'd keep him. Curious why people want to move him.

If you like Castro, then he's back on team.  Unless, of course, he needs to be included in a trade to get the prospects you want.

[cjj td]

Twins will win AT LEAST 2 of 3.