Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem

[Cody Schoenmann]

Varland's Achilles' heel is hindering him from becoming a reliable Major League starting pitcher.

Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

When Twins starting pitcher Tyler Mahle was placed on the 15-day IL with a posterior impingement and flexor pronator strain in his pitching elbow on May 3, the Twins elected to recall right-handed pitching prospect Louie Varland from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints. 

Varland, who made a spot start for the Twins earlier in the season against the New York Yankees on April 14, where he threw six innings, giving up three earned runs on six hits and one walk while striking out eight hitters, was finally getting his first extended look as a member of the Twins rotation.

Varland's extended look started on a not-so-hot note when he gave up four earned runs on seven hits while giving up two walks and striking out six through 4 2/3 innings pitched against the White Sox on May 3. Varland struggled initially, but things turned around quickly. 

Over Varland's next five starts, spanning from May 9 through May 31, Varland pitched a combined 30 1/3 innings while giving up only nine earned runs, striking out 25 hitters, and walking only five. 

Varland also pitched to a combined BABIP of just .246, which is lower than the league average currently sitting at .296, a Left On Base % (LOB%) of 92.5%, which is 20.74% higher than the league average, and an ERA of just 2.77, which is 1.52 points lower than league average. 

During that five-game stretch, Varland was incredible. Unfortunately, Varland has struggled over his last three starts against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 6, the Tampa Bay Rays on June 11, and the Detroit Tigers on June 18 (Happy Father's Day!). 

Through this three-game stretch, Varland has given up 21 hits, eight walks, five home runs, and 17 earned runs over 15 innings pitched. Varland also mustered a LOB% of 51.2%, which is 41.3% less than what he earned over his previous five games, an ERA of 8.64, which is 5.87 points higher than the previous five games, and a Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio (HR/FB) of 19.45%, which is 7.25% higher than league average and 6.95% higher than what he generated over his previous five games.

Varland's promising start to his first opportunity as a full-time starting rotation member has since been dampened by three rough outings.

It is important not to overreact and make critical judgments over relatively small sample sizes. Still, some serious red flags have been present all season for Varland, and the most significant red flag in Varland's game is the inability to limit home runs. 

Varland has a home run problem. 

There is no way around it.

Through 51 2/3 innings pitched, Varland has given up an HR/9 of 2.09, which is 0.92 points higher than the league average of 1.17, and an HR/FB of 21.1%, which is 8.9% higher than the league average. To add context, Fangraphs classifies an HR/FB for pitchers of 13.0% as awful, so, in a sense, Varland's HR/FB ratio of 21.1% is "Below Awful." 

I don't mean to slander Varland, and I am optimistic that he can still be a key member of future Twins rotations alongside Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober. Still, his inability to limit home runs is very real and very concerning. 

Why is Varland struggling with giving up home runs?

Let's take a deeper look. 

First, it is essential to understand what it looks like when things are going well for Varland on the mound. Here is an example. 

In this sequence, which shows only two pitches, Varland strikes out Astros first baseman/designated hitter José Abreu on a slider low and outside. Varland's slider begins looking like it is going toward the inside half of the plate but then quickly jumps out to the outer half, confusing right-handed hitters like Abreu. 

The reason Varland's slider tends to be so effective, like in the video example above, is because his off-speed pitches come from the same arm slot as his fastball. Varland's average arm slot when he throws fastballs comes in at 5.5 feet, while his average arm slot for when he throws sliders comes in at 5.4 feet, virtually the exact same, especially to the human eye. 

On average, Varland's slider moves 11 inches horizontally from right-handed hitters and drops 40 inches, which is impressive considering the league average for right-handed pitchers who throw sliders horizontal movement is six inches along with 36 inches in drop. 

In the next at-bat shown in the video example, Varland strikes out Astros outfielder Jake Meyers looking on a fastball high and outside. Varland's fastball, like most pitchers, works best when he is working it on the outside edges of the zone both vertically and horizontally. In this specific example, Varland strikes out Meyers by being able to pinpoint his fastball on the upper left-hand edge of the strike zone. 

Varland's unique wind-up, which looks like his arm is slinging the ball toward the plate, reminiscent of a trebuchet or a catapult, helps him confuse hitters as, when he is effective, his off-speed pitches and fastball come from the same unique arm slot, making hitters question every pitch coming from his hand. 

Vice versa, it is essential to understand what it looks like when Varland is struggling. Let's look at an example. 

In this sequence, Varland leaves an 84 MPH changeup center cut to Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman. 

Now, any 84 MPH center cut changeup will more likely than not get hit very hard and very far by any worthwhile Major League hitter, especially those the likes of Chapman. But it is still essential to analyze what might have gone wrong, despite the obvious. 

Varland has struggled with his changeup this season, likely because it is a very average pitch, if not slightly below average. Varland's changeup moves 14 inches and drops 31 inches. In comparison, the league average for changeups thrown by right-handed pitchers is 15 inches in horizontal movement with 31 inches in drop. 

Varland's changeup movement is almost perfectly average, which isn't inherently discouraging. What is discouraging is that Varland threw an average pitch toward the middle of the zone to an above-average Major League hitter, a story that has been told far too often this year.

Varland has allowed 10% of balls put in play hit off of him to be barreled, which is 3% higher than the league average. This measurement is further evidenced by Varland's Barrel% being in only the 20th percentile. When Varland gives up contact, it tends to be hit hard and in the air, which can be a recipe for unfortunate outcomes for Varland, the Twins, and Twins fans alike. 

Now, this formula can work well in pitcher-friendly ballparks like Target Field. Still, when facing teams away from Target Field in hitter-friendly ballparks, as illustrated in the Blue Jays video, things can quickly go wrong for Varland if teams begin to make hard contact off him. 

Can Varland's Home Run Problem Be Fixed?

Yes, but Varland will need to work on changing things.

First, Varland needs to develop better off-speed pitches and locate them better. Can that happen at the Major League level? Yes, but it's not a foregone conclusion that the Twins would be comfortable with that, especially with potentially better options in the recently emerging left-handed pitching prospect Brent Headrick doing well in Triple-A and his most recent long relief appearance versus the Tigers on June 17, and the return of veteran right-handed 35-year-old Kenta Maeda imminent. 

 

Varland also needs to stop leaving as many fastballs hanging in the zone as he does. Varland throws 67% of his fastball in the strike zone, which is why he is so good at limiting walks, but when a pitcher throws 67% of his fastballs in the zone, that leaves the possibility of more hard-hit balls being put in play. 

If Varland can find ways to make his off-speed pitches more effective and play a complementary role to his fastball that needs to not be left in the middle of the zone as often, then he could become a solidified member of the Twins starting rotation alongside Ryan, López, and Ober. 

We will have to see if the Twins will allow Varland to make those adjustments at the Major League level or if he needs to undergo more fine-tuning in Triple-A with the St. Paul Saints and their coaching staff, but with Varland giving up two more home runs through 4 1/3 innings pitched while also propelling his ERA on the season to 5.30 in his most recent start against the Detroit Tigers on June 18, it feels like Varland has pitched himself out of a spot in the Twins rotation.

What do you think about Varland's home run issue? Do you think he should get optioned to Triple-A or can he work out his command and location issues at the Major League level?

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[Karbo]

Gotta do something. My guess is Maeda back into rotation and Varland to St. Paul. Varland will be a good to great starter in the future, though he can gain more experience and work on refining his off speed stuff in AAA.

[chpettit19]

A 6 man rotation between now and the All Star break would be an interesting move. I wonder if Louie is tiring just a bit. Not simply from inning totals, but the natural uptick in effort at the ML level over the minors. Maybe the arm isn't feeling quite as good as he'd like. A little extra rest for him, and the rest of the rotation as we get into July may be good. Allow everyone to get recharged coming out of the break and hit the ground running for the second half. The starters need to be really, really good for this team to have a chance so I could see a 6 man rotation for a couple weeks being a decent option to have everybody in as good a shape as possible for the 2nd half of the year.

[beckmt]

If Maeda is not yet ready, I would rather give starts to Headrick or Balzavick in the short term.  Let Varland learn the craft in St. Paul for the time being.  Best would be Maeda and piggyback with Headrick for the time being.  Anything has to be better than this.

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

A 6 man rotation between now and the All Star break would be an interesting move. I wonder if Louie is tiring just a bit. Not simply from inning totals, but the natural uptick in effort at the ML level over the minors. Maybe the arm isn't feeling quite as good as he'd like. A little extra rest for him, and the rest of the rotation as we get into July may be good. Allow everyone to get recharged coming out of the break and hit the ground running for the second half. The starters need to be really, really good for this team to have a chance so I could see a 6 man rotation for a couple weeks being a decent option to have everybody in as good a shape as possible for the 2nd half of the year.

By my count there is 19 games left before all star break. If nothing changes Ryan, Gray, Lopez and Ober would have 4 starts, and Varland 3.

Adding a 6th starter, keeps Lopez at 4 starts (assuming they just add said pitcher to the last spot.), Varland at 3, moves Ryan, Gray and Ober to three starts, and gives the 6th pitcher 3 starts.

Normally I would be completely against this idea, but if they just did it going into the AS break, I wouldn't be against it and think it might be a good idea, a bit of rest for 3 of them and a competition for Maeda and Varland to see who get the job coming of the break.

IMO, Varland doesn't need to spend any more time in the minors, how does one work on not giving up homers to major league hitters in the minor? I would give him that 5/6/7 inning role where he can pitch multiple innings more often than not so he stays some what stretched out and kind of on a starter type schedule.

[DJL44]

It's about location and working on that requires innings. He's probably due to go back to AAA to improve. That's not unusual for a rookie. MLB has a tendency to expose weaknesses quickly.

[chpettit19]

55 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

By my count there is 19 games left before all star break. If nothing changes Ryan, Gray, Lopez and Ober would have 4 starts, and Varland 3.

Adding a 6th starter, keeps Lopez at 4 starts (assuming they just add said pitcher to the last spot.), Varland at 3, moves Ryan, Gray and Ober to three starts, and gives the 6th pitcher 3 starts.

Normally I would be completely against this idea, but if they just did it going into the AS break, I wouldn't be against it and think it might be a good idea, a bit of rest for 3 of them and a competition for Maeda and Varland to see who get the job coming of the break.

IMO, Varland doesn't need to spend any more time in the minors, how does one work on not giving up homers to major league hitters in the minor? I would give him that 5/6/7 inning role where he can pitch multiple innings more often than not so he stays some what stretched out and kind of on a starter type schedule.

Yeah, between Gray spending some time on the IL every year, Ober having some inning total concerns, Maeda having health/stamina concerns, and Varland being his first big league season it feels like a short stint of a 6 man rotation going into the break could be helpful all around. If they start losing starters, or seeing serious decline from them, this team is really going nowhere. 

Only thing I can see Varland having to work on in AAA as far as the HR ball is concerned is if the problem is something mechanical that they think he could work out over 2 or 3 weeks and get back. Will be interesting to see how they work the rotation the rest of the year. Headrick staying stretched out as their depth in AAA is going to be pretty important, too. He's the only guy looking like he's worthy of spot starts at this point.

[David Maro]

Varland has become a thrower not a pitcher, too many pitches left in the middle of the zone. When you watch closely he starts to rush his pitches. He is releasing his pitches with 7,8,9 seconds on the pitch clock. Time to go back to St Paul and work on using the clock to his advantage. That way his pitches should be less likely to be in the middle of the zone. 

[TwinsDr2021]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Headrick staying stretched out as their depth in AAA is going to be pretty important, too. He's the only guy looking like he's worthy of spot starts at this point.

100% agree Headrick is the only starting in the minors. I think being stretched out is a bit overrated, because big strong 25 year olds plus should be able to add 20 to 40 pitchers over a couple of weeks. So having a Headrick, Varland, Winder throwing 2 to 3 innings, shouldn't take much time to get them to 4 - 6, so if one pitcher goes on the IR for a period they have the bodies to be fine with that, now if two or more go down, then it doesn't matter because they are probably screwed either way.

[Cody Schoenmann]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Gotta do something. My guess is Maeda back into rotation and Varland to St. Paul. Varland will be a good to great starter in the future, though he can gain more experience and work on refining his off speed stuff in AAA.

I agree. I expect the move will be announced within the next 2-3 days after Maeda meets with the Falvey, Baldelli, & Co. It's unfortunate that Varland has regressed so sharply after his strong five game stretch, but it appears that he definitely needs to undergo refining in Triple-A. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

A 6 man rotation between now and the All Star break would be an interesting move. I wonder if Louie is tiring just a bit. Not simply from inning totals, but the natural uptick in effort at the ML level over the minors. Maybe the arm isn't feeling quite as good as he'd like. A little extra rest for him, and the rest of the rotation as we get into July may be good. Allow everyone to get recharged coming out of the break and hit the ground running for the second half. The starters need to be really, really good for this team to have a chance so I could see a 6 man rotation for a couple weeks being a decent option to have everybody in as good a shape as possible for the 2nd half of the year.

I like the idea of a six man rotation, but I don't know if having Varland make a start every six-or-so days is in the best interest of the Twins at the moment. I wonder if adding Maeda to the rotation and then having a bullpen day where De León, Headrick, and Balazovic pitch two innings each might be a better option than keeping a struggling Varland in the rotation. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

59 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's about location and working on that requires innings. He's probably due to go back to AAA to improve. That's not unusual for a rookie. MLB has a tendency to expose weaknesses quickly.

I agree! It's similar to when pitchers make adjustment towards young hitters and then those young hitter begin to struggle. Many times, like in the case of Jose Miranda, for example, they need to be sent down to Triple-A to work on their counter-adjustments, but sometimes they are able to power through and work on those adjustments at the big league level like, say, Alex Kirilloff. Unfortunately, I don't think Varland has been able to make adequate counter-adjustments, so a demotion to Triple-A St. Paul is probably in his and the Twins best interest.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I like the idea of a six man rotation, but I don't know if having Varland make a start every six-or-so days is in the best interest of the Twins at the moment. I wonder if adding Maeda to the rotation and then having a bullpen day where De León, Headrick, and Balazovic pitch two innings each might be a better option than keeping a struggling Varland in the rotation. 

I don't think that's a crazy idea, but I have concerns over Maeda's ability to get deeper than 5 innings into a start. Gray hasn't been able to get deep into starts frequently enough either. With 2 guys likely maxing out at 5 innings a start, plus a bullpen day, that's a whole lot of innings for an already struggling pen. I'd rather have those 3 work to piggy back off Gray, Maeda, and Varland.

But a lot of the question, to me, is about what Varland's struggles are. Is he simply not pitching well enough? Is he too predictable? Is his stuff just not good enough? Is it some fatigue setting in? Maybe he's part of that 6th day bullpen game, but he goes 4 innings instead of 2. Do like yesterday and pair Varland and Balazovic (or Headrick) to get them through 7 or 8 innings, and actually save the pen that day while limiting those two and their exposure to multiple lineup turnover. Let De Leon, and whichever young guy isn't paired with Varland, be 2 inning guys for Maeda and Gray. Provide a little extra rest for everyone on the pitching staff going into the break, and make some decisions on the rotation coming out of it.

[ashbury]

Varland is a case in point for my view that there's really no such role as "#5 starter", not as anything permanent for a season anyway.  That slot is for pitchers trying to establish a role - either a veteran trying to show he can still be a contributor in a rotation, or a young guy trying to establish himself.  The difference is what to do with the guy if he's not making the grade: you DFA the veteran or maybe put him in the bullpen, you probably just option the youngster.  Varland is our #5 guy, and right now it's time to send him to St Paul.  The uptick in home runs might be just a SSS phenomenon, but it seems clear that whatever deception he brought in the early going has been scouted and adjusted for.  So now it's his turn to adjust, and AAA is the place for experimentation and learning.

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, ashbury said:

AAA is the place for experimentation and learning.

Yes, and sometimes it takes getting beat up in the big leagues to listen to the coaches who tell you "that isn't going to work with better hitters"

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, David Maro said:

Varland has become a thrower not a pitcher, too many pitches left in the middle of the zone. When you watch closely he starts to rush his pitches. He is releasing his pitches with 7,8,9 seconds on the pitch clock. Time to go back to St Paul and work on using the clock to his advantage. That way his pitches should be less likely to be in the middle of the zone. 

IDK if it's his pace but I definitely noticed he left too many pitches over the heart of the plate.   

[KirbyDome89]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

A 6 man rotation between now and the All Star break would be an interesting move. I wonder if Louie is tiring just a bit. Not simply from inning totals, but the natural uptick in effort at the ML level over the minors. Maybe the arm isn't feeling quite as good as he'd like. A little extra rest for him, and the rest of the rotation as we get into July may be good. Allow everyone to get recharged coming out of the break and hit the ground running for the second half. The starters need to be really, really good for this team to have a chance so I could see a 6 man rotation for a couple weeks being a decent option to have everybody in as good a shape as possible for the 2nd half of the year.

Hard pass on a 6 man rotation or committing to piggybacking 2 or 3 SPs. When Pagan and/or Moran start imploding in any sort of moderate to high leverage situation you're f***ed. Either the piggyback strategy gets scrapped and you're stuck trying to squeeze innings out of starters that can't hang on, or you're sticking with piss poor relievers in key situations and eating losses. Rock and a hard place yada yada but I'd roll with 5 starters (not opposed to Varland going down as I seem to be lower on him than a lot of people around here) rather than bump everybody up a rung in the bullpen hierarchy and commit specific pen arms to specific days. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think that's a crazy idea, but I have concerns over Maeda's ability to get deeper than 5 innings into a start. Gray hasn't been able to get deep into starts frequently enough either. With 2 guys likely maxing out at 5 innings a start, plus a bullpen day, that's a whole lot of innings for an already struggling pen. I'd rather have those 3 work to piggy back off Gray, Maeda, and Varland.

But a lot of the question, to me, is about what Varland's struggles are. Is he simply not pitching well enough? Is he too predictable? Is his stuff just not good enough? Is it some fatigue setting in? Maybe he's part of that 6th day bullpen game, but he goes 4 innings instead of 2. Do like yesterday and pair Varland and Balazovic (or Headrick) to get them through 7 or 8 innings, and actually save the pen that day while limiting those two and their exposure to multiple lineup turnover. Let De Leon, and whichever young guy isn't paired with Varland, be 2 inning guys for Maeda and Gray. Provide a little extra rest for everyone on the pitching staff going into the break, and make some decisions on the rotation coming out of it.

Yeah, I share the same concern over Maeda not being able to get deeper than five innings into starts as well as the fact that Gray hasn't been able to get deep into starts of late either. Having a six man rotation would mean that the Twins would only have a seven man bullpen which would lead to the bullpen then being taxed since they would likely no longer have a stretch reliever. The Twins are in a tough spot right now and hopefully their starting pitching can stay strong, as that is this team's lone strength. 

Edited June 19, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Hard pass on a 6 man rotation or committing to piggybacking 2 or 3 SPs. When Pagan and/or Moran start imploding in any sort of moderate to high leverage situation you're f***ed. Either the piggyback strategy gets scrapped and you're stuck trying to squeeze innings out of starters that can't hang on, or you're sticking with piss poor relievers in key situations and eating losses. Rock and a hard place yada yada but I'd roll with 5 starters (not opposed to Varland going down as I seem to be lower on him than a lot of people around here) rather than bump everybody up a rung in the bullpen hierarchy and commit specific pen arms to specific days. 

Why would piggybacking starters lead to anything different with the bullpen usage outside of 1 fewer low leverage arm? Why can't Pagan be the one to go away when Maeda comes back? The Twins try to only use Duran, Jax, and Stewart in high leverage spots already, I don't see how that changes with their worst reliever turning into a bulk arm. I don't see how that moves anyone up a rung in the hierarchy. You'd, hopefully, be switching out the bottom rung, not a middle one.

Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Ober- True starters allowed to go as deep as they can in a game based on performance that day
Maeda, Varland, Headrick, Balazovic- "Bulk" arms that can't be trusted to go more than 4 on a regular basis at this point
Moran, De Leon- Mid leverage guys who can go 2 innings if needed
Duran, Stewart, Jax- high leverage arms used to finish off games

The only change from the bullpen today that I made was switching out Pagan for Maeda. I took a 1 or 2 inning, low leverage arm, and turned it into a 3 or 4 inning, bulk arm.

I'd argue switching out Varland for Maeda is the situation that would lead to worse bullpen scenarios involving Pagan and Moran since Maeda likely can't make it through 5 innings with consistency right now. That's putting Archer back in the rotation.

I don't think you need to plan a piggyback with Gray, but you better have a bulk guy on hand for every one of his starts. And I'd plan it for Maeda. Unless the idea is to put Headrick into the rotation you're already pretty much advocating for 2 piggyback situations if you want Gray and Maeda in the same rotation.

Also, I just said until the all star break. That's 19 games. And Maeda likely won't be up until Friday. So 15 games. 

[chpettit19]

35 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Yeah, I share the same concern over Maeda not being able to get deeper than five innings into starts as well as the fact that Gray hasn't been able to get deep into starts of late either. Having a six man rotation would mean that the Twins would only have a seven man bullpen which would lead to the bullpen then being taxed since they would likely no longer have a stretch reliever. The Twins are in a tough spot right now and hopefully their starting pitching can stay strong, as that is this team's lone strength. 

That's why I was advocating for multiple long men to go into the pen. I'm good with 5 short relievers if you have 4 guys who can go 3/4/5 innings, and your other 4 starters who you expect to go 6/7. I'm only suggesting this for 19 games before the break. If you have to burn one of your long guys send them down and replace them with SWR until the break. 

I don't expect them to follow this plan, but I think it can be done for 19 games while providing Maeda a chance to show what he can do/build up a little more stamina, and also resting some arms a tiny bit as they get into the break, and will need to lean on the starters even more going into the 2nd half. Lopez wore down last year, and we've already covered the other starters. If you're going to rely on the rotation to carry you you better make sure they're as strong as they can be.

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Why would piggybacking starters lead to anything different with the bullpen usage outside of 1 fewer low leverage arm? Why can't Pagan be the one to go away when Maeda comes back? The Twins try to only use Duran, Jax, and Stewart in high leverage spots already, I don't see how that changes with their worst reliever turning into a bulk arm. I don't see how that moves anyone up a rung in the hierarchy. You'd, hopefully, be switching out the bottom rung, not a middle one.

Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Ober- True starters allowed to go as deep as they can in a game based on performance that day
Maeda, Varland, Headrick, Balazovic- "Bulk" arms that can't be trusted to go more than 4 on a regular basis at this point
Moran, De Leon- Mid leverage guys who can go 2 innings if needed
Duran, Stewart, Jax- high leverage arms used to finish off games

The only change from the bullpen today that I made was switching out Pagan for Maeda. I took a 1 or 2 inning, low leverage arm, and turned it into a 3 or 4 inning, bulk arm.

I'd argue switching out Varland for Maeda is the situation that would lead to worse bullpen scenarios involving Pagan and Moran since Maeda likely can't make it through 5 innings with consistency right now. That's putting Archer back in the rotation.

I don't think you need to plan a piggyback with Gray, but you better have a bulk guy on hand for every one of his starts. And I'd plan it for Maeda. Unless the idea is to put Headrick into the rotation you're already pretty much advocating for 2 piggyback situations if you want Gray and Maeda in the same rotation.

Also, I just said until the all star break. That's 19 games. And Maeda likely won't be up until Friday. So 15 games. 

You think they'd cut Pagan at this point instead of optioning Balazovic? I don't. There's no reason to believe this FO doesn't still view Pagan as an asset, which means they're not going to DFA him when they can simply send Balazovic down. That means it's Moran and Pagan as your mid leverage guys, or you're committing 3ish innings to one of those two on a given day. In any decent pen you'd be trying to limit either as much as possible, and now they're a step closer to high leverage. 

I agree on Maeda; he doesn't deserve a spot in the rotation, but he'll get one. Maeda for Pagan in the pen is the real swap, but that's fantasy land. I don't think Varland is a step up from Maeda as far as consistency or reliability is concerned, so Idk why we'd want to carve out another rotation spot, at the expense of a usable bullpen arm, to keep both. 

Yeah, it's just not the strategy I'd roll with for the next 3+ weeks. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

You think they'd cut Pagan at this point instead of optioning Balazovic? I don't. There's no reason to believe this FO doesn't still view Pagan as an asset, which means they're not going to DFA him when they can simply send Balazovic down. That means it's Moran and Pagan as your mid leverage guys, or you're committing 3ish innings to one of those two on a given day. In any decent pen you'd be trying to limit either as much as possible, and now they're a step closer to high leverage. 

I agree on Maeda; he doesn't deserve a spot in the rotation, but he'll get one. Maeda for Pagan in the pen is the real swap, but that's fantasy land. I don't think Varland is a step up from Maeda as far as consistency or reliability is concerned, so Idk why we'd want to carve out another rotation spot, at the expense of a usable bullpen arm, to keep both. 

Yeah, it's just not the strategy I'd roll with for the next 3+ weeks. 

Do I think they'd do that? No. But I wasn't saying what I think they'd do, I was saying what I'd do. 

[ashbury]

At the end of the day, a 6-man rotation makes room for your 6th best starter, in the hope that extra rest elevates everyone else's performance and stamina.  Better innings, more innings - if you don't get either of those, then you are putting extra strain on the 7 remaining bullpeners.  I'm skeptical that it would pay off, either short term or long term.

The plan is to give Louie Varland more innings in the majors when he needs to tune something up at AAA?  No thanks.

[Cody Schoenmann]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

Varland is a case in point for my view that there's really no such role as "#5 starter", not as anything permanent for a season anyway.  That slot is for pitchers trying to establish a role - either a veteran trying to show he can still be a contributor in a rotation, or a young guy trying to establish himself.  The difference is what to do with the guy if he's not making the grade: you DFA the veteran or maybe put him in the bullpen, you probably just option the youngster.  Varland is our #5 guy, and right now it's time to send him to St Paul.  The uptick in home runs might be just a SSS phenomenon, but it seems clear that whatever deception he brought in the early going has been scouted and adjusted for.  So now it's his turn to adjust, and AAA is the place for experimentation and learning.

This is a really good point @ashbury. It feels like the number five starter spot either goes to a young prospect trying to make it in the big leagues (i.e., Varland) or a veteran pitcher trying to stick around (i.e., Matt Shoemaker and Chris Archer of years past). Luckily, the Twins have the ability to option Varland rather than DFAing him and I agree that tinkering with both his approach at the Triple-A level is probably in the best of interests for the Twins and Varland. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

That's why I was advocating for multiple long men to go into the pen. I'm good with 5 short relievers if you have 4 guys who can go 3/4/5 innings, and your other 4 starters who you expect to go 6/7. I'm only suggesting this for 19 games before the break. If you have to burn one of your long guys send them down and replace them with SWR until the break. 

I don't expect them to follow this plan, but I think it can be done for 19 games while providing Maeda a chance to show what he can do/build up a little more stamina, and also resting some arms a tiny bit as they get into the break, and will need to lean on the starters even more going into the 2nd half. Lopez wore down last year, and we've already covered the other starters. If you're going to rely on the rotation to carry you you better make sure they're as strong as they can be.

So, if you have a nine man bullpen with four long relievers, then that means that all five short relievers would have to take on high-leverage roles. I'd be confident with Duran, Jax, and Stewart having high-leverage roles, which they already have, but I am less confident with Moran and am to the nth degree not confident in Pagán having a high-leverage role, but I like your idea nonetheless. Would you be comfortable with these five relievers having high-leverage roles for roughly 18 more games? 

[jkcarew]

If only the goalie didn’t give up so many goals, he’d be good.

If only the pitcher didn’t give up so many really hard hits…

It’s the same argument. Just needs to be better overall.

AAA. Three years ago, I wouldn’t have bet 2 cents that Varland would ever see AAA, let alone the majors. He may surprise yet again, or maybe this is the ceiling. The International League ballparks, including CHS, are HR factories…an excellent situation for working on keeping it in the park.

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think that's a crazy idea, but I have concerns over Maeda's ability to get deeper than 5 innings into a start. Gray hasn't been able to get deep into starts frequently enough either. With 2 guys likely maxing out at 5 innings a start, plus a bullpen day, that's a whole lot of innings for an already struggling pen. I'd rather have those 3 work to piggy back off Gray, Maeda, and Varland.

But a lot of the question, to me, is about what Varland's struggles are. Is he simply not pitching well enough? Is he too predictable? Is his stuff just not good enough? Is it some fatigue setting in? Maybe he's part of that 6th day bullpen game, but he goes 4 innings instead of 2. Do like yesterday and pair Varland and Balazovic (or Headrick) to get them through 7 or 8 innings, and actually save the pen that day while limiting those two and their exposure to multiple lineup turnover. Let De Leon, and whichever young guy isn't paired with Varland, be 2 inning guys for Maeda and Gray. Provide a little extra rest for everyone on the pitching staff going into the break, and make some decisions on the rotation coming out of it.

Short starts and a 6 man rotation just means one less bullpen arm to cover those innings. A 6 man rotation puts stress ON the pen, rather than lessens it.

Edit: already discussed. 

But "more long men" isn't realistic either.  That just puts MORE stress on the pen. There are virtually zero Twins games that require fewer than 3 pitchers and generally 4 or more. That ain't changing. You can't do that with a 5 man pen.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

So, if you have a nine man bullpen with four long relievers, then that means that all five short relievers would have to take on high-leverage roles. I'd be confident with Duran, Jax, and Stewart having high-leverage roles, which they already have, but I am less confident with Moran and am to the nth degree not confident in Pagán having a high-leverage role, but I like your idea nonetheless. Would you be comfortable with these five relievers having high-leverage roles for roughly 18 more games? 

Do they have 5 guys in high leverage roles now? Why would having more long relievers mean there's more high leverage roles? Who outside of Duran, Jax, and Stewart are really getting high leverage innings now? I wouldn't be replacing anyone above Moran and Pagan in the pecking order so I'm not sure why they'd be moving up. I'd be replacing the guys at the bottom of the pecking order.

The current pen is Duran, Stewart, Jax, De Leon, Moran, Pagan, Headrick, Balazovic. I'd replace Pagan with Maeda. That doesn't move anyone up the ladder into higher leverage roles. Just adds a guy who can go more, hopefully better, innings.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Short starts and a 6 man rotation just means one less bullpen arm to cover those innings. A 6 man rotation puts stress ON the pen, rather than lessens it.

I want more multi-inning arms. Fewer arms who can throw more innings. I'd rather get through 7 or 8 innings with 2 arms instead of 3 or 4.

[USAFChief]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I want more multi-inning arms. Fewer arms who can throw more innings. I'd rather get through 7 or 8 innings with 2 arms instead of 3 or 4.

Who?

We don't have enough relievers that can consistently get through ONE inning. 

In any case, unless you're advocating for new management, top to bottom, it ain't happening. They've had half a decade to demonstrate some other bullpen system, but they're tied to a short relief system. Like pretty much all baseball.