Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Who?

We don't have enough relievers that can consistently get through ONE inning. 

In any case, unless you're advocating for new management, top to bottom, it ain't happening. They've had half a decade to demonstrate some other bullpen system, but they're tied to a short relief system. Like pretty much all baseball.

Oh, I don't expect it to happen at all.

My pen right now would be Duran, Jax, and Stewart as 1 inning guys. De Leon and Moran as 1 or 2 inning guys. Headrick, Balazovic, and Maeda as 3/4/5 inning "bulk arms." 

[Cody Schoenmann]

59 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Do they have 5 guys in high leverage roles now? Why would having more long relievers mean there's more high leverage roles? Who outside of Duran, Jax, and Stewart are really getting high leverage innings now? I wouldn't be replacing anyone above Moran and Pagan in the pecking order so I'm not sure why they'd be moving up. I'd be replacing the guys at the bottom of the pecking order.

The current pen is Duran, Stewart, Jax, De Leon, Moran, Pagan, Headrick, Balazovic. I'd replace Pagan with Maeda. That doesn't move anyone up the ladder into higher leverage roles. Just adds a guy who can go more, hopefully better, innings.

Well Moran has gotten put in high-leverage spots multiple times this season and Pagán was most recently put in a high-leverage spot against the Blue Jays where he imploded and gave up a three run home run to Cavan Biggio. What I am trying to say is that if you only have five short relievers they are all going to be forced in high-leverage spots. For example, say Joe Ryan starts a game and pitches six innings and then Stewart pitches the seventh, Jax pitches the eighth, and then Duran closes the game out in the ninth. If this occurred, then it would be safe to assume that Stewart, Jax, and Duran would be unavailable for the next game. Now, in the next game say, hypothetically, Bailey Ober pitches seven innings and he gets pulled after the seventh with a one-run lead. If this situation arose, then one of Moran or Pagán would be forced to pitch in the eighth inning of a one-run game, which is obviously a high-leverage situation. The Twins don't have many other options, but it would be nice to have a short reliever like Kody Funderburk or Oliver Ortega available as short relievers rather than having a bunch of stretch relievers who won't be able to help you in high-leverage situations unless you want to risk using them as short relievers. It is a messy situation, but I think the Twins need to roster at least six short relievers as they can't afford to depend solely on Moran or Pagán being second tier high-leverage relievers. 

Edited June 20, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, jkcarew said:

If only the goalie didn’t give up so many goals, he’d be good.

If only the pitcher didn’t give up so many really hard hits…

It’s the same argument. Just needs to be better overall.

AAA. Three years ago, I wouldn’t have bet 2 cents that Varland would ever see AAA, let alone the majors. He may surprise yet again, or maybe this is the ceiling. The International League ballparks, including CHS, are HR factories…an excellent situation for working on keeping it in the park.

The fact that Varland was able to skyrocket through the Twins minor league system so fast is incredible and I admire him for it, but it feels like he has reached a roadblock, and this roadblock is probably the hardest one he has faced yet. Will he be able to overcome it? I'm not sure, but I think he needs to work on crafting the skills needed to overcome it in Triple-A rather than with the Twins for the time being. If Maeda struggles or gets injured again, then Varland should be the pitcher the Twins choose to call-up, although if the Twins decided it was going to be Headrick I wouldn't necessarily disagree with them.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Well Moran has gotten put in high-leverage spots multiple times this season and Pagán was most recently put in a high-leverage spot against the Blue Jays where he imploded and gave up a three run home run to Cavan Biggio. What I am trying to say is that if you only have five short relievers they are all going to be forced in high-leverage spots. For example, say Joe Ryan starts a game and pitches six innings and then Stewart pitches the seventh, Jax pitches the eighth, and then Duran closes the game out in the ninth. If this occurred, then it would be safe to assume that Stewart, Jax, and Duran would be unavailable for the next game. Now, in the next game say, hypothetically, Bailey Ober pitches seven innings and he gets pulled after the seventh with a one-run lead. If this situation arose, then one of Moran or Pagán would be forced to pitch in the eighth inning of a one-run game, which is obviously a high-leverage situation. The Twins don't have many other options, but it would be nice to have a short reliever like Kody Funderburk or Oliver Ortega available as short relievers rather than having a bunch of stretch relievers who won't be able to help you in high-leverage situations unless you want to risk using them as short relievers. It is a messy situation, but I think the Twins need to roster at least six short relievers as they can't afford to depend solely on Moran or Pagán being second tier high-leverage relievers. 

I disagree with the premise that they would, or should, be unavailable the next day. If you can't use your best relievers in back to back games they're not good enough to be the best relievers on a team. Do you want to use them back to back days super frequently? No. But it can, and should, be done from time to time. If you want to win in the playoffs you better have some guys who can throw back to back days. Especially your closer, and fireman.

I also don't know why you can't use a multi-inning capable pitcher for 1 inning if needed, or, heaven forbid, to pitch both the 8th and the 9th inning after Ober leaves your hypothetical game. Why not use Headrick to finish off that Ober game and not have to throw either Moran or Pagan? If Headrick is better why can't you use him for 2 innings? 

Would the Twins actually do it? I don't think so at all. But there's no rule that says you have to throw worse pitchers for 1 inning each instead of using a bulk guy for multiple innings, and still have bulk guys left for the next day. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I disagree with the premise that they would, or should, be unavailable the next day. If you can't use your best relievers in back to back games they're not good enough to be the best relievers on a team. Do you want to use them back to back days super frequently? No. But it can, and should, be done from time to time. If you want to win in the playoffs you better have some guys who can throw back to back days. Especially your closer, and fireman.

I also don't know why you can't use a multi-inning capable pitcher for 1 inning if needed, or, heaven forbid, to pitch both the 8th and the 9th inning after Ober leaves your hypothetical game. Why not use Headrick to finish off that Ober game and not have to throw either Moran or Pagan? If Headrick is better why can't you use him for 2 innings? 

Would the Twins actually do it? I don't think so at all. But there's no rule that says you have to throw worse pitchers for 1 inning each instead of using a bulk guy for multiple innings, and still have bulk guys left for the next day. 

I think I am more so trying to approach this through how I think the Twins operate more than anything. To me, it feels likes whenever one of their better relievers is used in a high-leverage spot that reliever is then unavailable for the next game. For example, when Stewart, Jax, and Duran were used in high-leverage spots during the first two games of the most recent three game series against the Blue Jays in Toronto, they were then unavailable for the third game of the series, which is why Moran, De León, Winder, Pagán, and Lopez were the only available relief options for that game. Evidently, the Twins blew a two run lead in the eighth inning when Pagán let up a three run home run to Cavan Biggio. What I am trying to say is that I don't think the Twins are going to over-tax their starters and short relievers in the name of having an abundance of stretch relievers. Plus, the pitchers who are short relief options like De León, Winder, Balazovic, Headrick, Woods Richardson, and so on don't have the Twins trust yet, so I think the Twins would go to almost every length imaginable to not use them in high-leverage spots. I don't think the fact that high-leverage relievers can't be used in back-to-back games means that they aren't good enough to be the best relievers on the team, I just think it means that you can't tax out your best relievers in a 162 game season.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I think I am more so trying to approach this through how I think the Twins operate more than anything. To me, it feels likes whenever one of their better relievers is used in a high-leverage spot that reliever is then unavailable for the next game. For example, when Stewart, Jax, and Duran were used in high-leverage spots during the first two games of the most recent three game series against the Blue Jays in Toronto, they were then unavailable for the third game of the series, which is why Moran, De León, Winder, Pagán, and Lopez were the only available relief options for that game. Evidently, the Twins blew a two run lead in the eighth inning when Pagán let up a three run home run to Cavan Biggio. What I am trying to say is that I don't think the Twins are going to over-tax their starters and short relievers in the name of having an abundance of stretch relievers. Plus, the pitchers who are short relief options like De León, Winder, Balazovic, Headrick, Woods Richardson, and so on don't have the Twins trust yet, so I think the Twins would go to almost every length imaginable to not use them in high-leverage spots. I don't think the fact that high-leverage relievers can't be used in back-to-back games means that they aren't good enough to be the best relievers on the team, I just think it means that you can't tax out your best relievers in a 162 game season.

Yeah, I don't expect the Twins to do anything I'm suggesting. But when your team has played like this one has for 2.5 years now I think it's time to quit doing things the way you're doing them. 

As for that Toronto series, you kind of proved my point about them being able to pitch back to back days. They pitched back to back days that series, and weren't available for the 3rd game. That's different than not being allowed to pitch back to back days. Pitching back to back days doesn't mean they're throwing 2 games in a row all the time, just that they're allowed to do it when the moment calls for it. And, unless you have 6 high leverage arms, you better get them used to throwing back to back games during the regular season, because they're going to need to do it in the playoffs. It's why I never thought Rogers was an elite arm. He was terrible in back to back situations. In the playoffs you have to be able to use your closer in both game 1 and game 2. If you can't he's not good enough. Being willing to use your best relievers in back to back games during the regular season doesn't have to equal taxing them.

I don't understand how having an "abundance of stretch relievers" over-taxes both your starters and your short relievers. If you have 4 guys who can all go multiple innings, and a rotation with at least 3 guys who can go 6 or 7 innings pretty regularly, you shouldn't be over-taxing anyone. If you're getting 6 innings out of Lopez, Ryan, and Ober most of the time you should be able to get 5 out of Gray, and 4 out of Maeda without over-taxing anyone, as long as you have multiple guys who can go multiple innings. It takes a change in mindset, though. You don't need 1 inning guys to throw the 7th, 8th, and 9th. You can use a multi-inning arm to pitch any combination of those innings.

The Twins not trusting anyone outside of Duran, Jax, and Stewart is a self-made problem that should've been addressed in the offseason, but wasn't. Only trusting 3 guys to get high leverage outs puts you in a tough spot no matter how the rest of your staff looks. Switching out Moran and Pagan types who aren't trusted for high leverage spots for Headrick and Balazovic types who aren't trusted in high leverage spots just reduces the number of relievers you have to use in a game which allows you to save your Duran, Jax, and Stewart types from having to pitch in the 9th inning of a 9-3 game. Having just a 3 man bullpen is a disaster no matter what.