Draft Preview: Five Under-the-Radar Pitchers I'm Watching

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Drafting pitchers is fraught with risk. It's also the most important position on a baseball team.

The pitching position is, in most people’s opinions, the most important position on a baseball team in terms of having both quality and depth. Yet, the term “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP)” is one that is used quite frequently. 

What you see as a high schooler or collegiate pitcher isn’t always what you get as a professional. Cases in point: Danny Hultzen was drafted second overall in the 2011 draft out of Virginia as one of the “safest” pitchers in recent memory. He made a six-game cameo in the majors and is out of baseball. Mark Appel is another great example of a sure thing being less than that. Brendan McKay was going to rival Shohei Ohtani as a two-way player. He briefly made the majors in 2019. These are only a handful of the hundreds examples that can be used.

High school pitchers is even more of a mixed bags.

And therein lies the rub. Teams need great pitchers and teams need a lot of pitchers. Yet drafting a pitcher can prove fruitless.

The Twins have taken an approach lately where they will use their top pick (or picks) to draft bats. And then deal from their surplus of bats to land major-league ready pitching. In fact, their Opening Day rotation was made up exclusively of arms acquired by trade. 

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The term “personal cheeseball” (better represented by #personalcheeseball) originated over twenty years ago in the Baseball America offices when former writer and current Twins scout John Manuel started using it as “shorthand for a personal favorite that does not reflect the popular consensus.” 

And that’s what you’ll see here. In the first five installments, we covered players from the midwest, catchers, shortstops, third baseman and outfielders. Today, we’ll look at some pitchers. And, again, as a warning, my radar isn’t reflective of any single team’s preferences or draft board. 

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It would be really easy to just devote the next five minutes of reading to write-ups about Paul Skenes, LSU’s ace who could go as high as #2 overall and could be helping an MLB rotation in relatively short order. It would also be easy to write about the consensus top prep, Noble Meyer, the Oregon kid committed to stay in state and play for the Ducks, but much more likely to begin his pro career after going in the first round.

But let’s look at some pitchers who are flying lower on the radar who may have a chance to make a big impact later.

Kiefer Lord, Washington: Despite being far out west, there’s a midwest connection in that Lord transferred from a small D3 school in Minnesota. And he has been on an upward trajectory. The tough part about drafting anyone who has really improved their stock over a short period of time is that you can either take them while they’re still climbing (great!), as their progress starts to plateau (good) or right before they come back down to earth (bad). The track-record here is recent, but the velocity has risen and the secondaries have flashed.

Joe Whitman, Kent State: A lefty equipped with a high-spin slider, Whitman throws in the mid-90s but lacks the third pitch to project him as a starter. There might not be a ton of projection left, but there’s enough present ability to potentially be a Day 2 pick.

Jason DeCaro, New York HS (committed to North Carolina): DeCaro is unique in that he recently reclassified so there is going to be less scouting done on him and that he is extremely young (he just turned 17). He’s got a great pitcher’s build already (6’ 4”, 205), but there is plenty of development yet to come. 

Josh Knoth, New York HS (committed to Ole Miss): Knoth is going to be highly sought-after potentially on Day 1 but definitely early on Day 2 if he has any desire to go professional. In addition to increased velocity, Knoth has a curveball with freaky high spin rates. And if that’s not enough for the analytical crew to fall in love with, he also doesn’t turn 18 until August. Knoth could certainly go the route of college and be drafted in three years, but there’s too much helium here to think that’s the most likely scenario. 

Travis Sykora, Texas HS (committed to Texas): Sykora is a big-bodied righty with a really big fastball. The hardest-throwing prep in the draft is old for his grade and could be drafted again in two years if he goes to Texas. There are plenty of cautionary tales about players throwing 100 mph in high school. Sykora could be the next… or he could be the next big thing. And everything is bigger in Texas.

Next week we will have our first mock draft of the season and later in the series we will take a look at more pitchers.

There are plenty of others that could have been listed here. This isn’t to say anyone is or isn’t going to be a good draft or baseball prospect. If you have your own local #personalcheeseball, leave in the comments!
 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Jeremy, great article which starts with classic  first and second sentences. Thank you for this series. It is very informative and well researched. 

[tony&rodney]

The kid, Kiefer Lord, that went to Carleton is a smart flyer, 3rd round pick maybe. 

Take the big Texan, Travis Sykora, with #34 pick if he is still there.

Thank you for these write ups.

[Linus]

I’ve enjoyed these articles. Do the Twins get to keep the 5th draft slot in all rounds?

[terrydactyls]

25 minutes ago, Linus said:

I’ve enjoyed these articles. Do the Twins get to keep the 5th draft slot in all rounds?

No

[strumdatjag]

Eddie Bane, Willie Banks and Pat Mahomes were all destined to be aces in the Twins rotation.  But not in reality.   I like the Twins picking versatile, position players high in the draft (shortstops!!!).   Catchers are another position to be given higher priority.    

[Fatbat]

We should be drafting pitching at 5 and 34. Dollander if he is still there at 5 (Skenes will be gone) and anyone of these guys at 34. We have plenty of position players in the system to cover the turnover rate for the next 3 seasons but we are definitely lacking in topend pitching prospects!

[jishfish]

4 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We should be drafting pitching at 5 and 34. Dollander if he is still there at 5 (Skenes will be gone) and anyone of these guys at 34. We have plenty of position players in the system to cover the turnover rate for the next 3 seasons but we are definitely lacking in topend pitching prospects!

I would be fine with Skenes at 5 (unlikely he is there, but definitely wouldn't rule it out). Dollander will for sure be there at 5, and I would be extremely disappointed if they take him over Jenkins, Clark, Langford, or even Kyle Teel at this point. I just don't think it's worth passing on the caliber of position player you can get at 5 unless it's someone absolutely special like Skenes.

[jishfish]

4 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Eddie Bane, Willie Banks and Pat Mahomes were all destined to be aces in the Twins rotation.  But not in reality.   I like the Twins picking versatile, position players high in the draft (shortstops!!!).   Catchers are another position to be given higher priority.    

Agreed with you 100% on this. One thing I would love for the Twins to focus on more is getting athletes into the system. That's part of what makes me so excited about Royce Lewis is he has the versatility and athleticism to be an asset on defense and on the bases, along with what he does at the plate. It just gives you so many more ways to contribute even if your bat goes cold for a stretch.

I think all of the position players that could be under consideration at 5 (Langford, Jenkins, Clark, Teel) posses enough athleticism to fall into that bucket, even if some of them are destined to be Corner OFs. They'll at least be athletic enough to be above average defenders and hopefully swipe even 12-15 bags each year.

[gman]

Dolander was considered the top pitcher in the draft when this year began. His fastball is in the mid 90's with good control and a good slider and a plus changeup. His stock has fallen but I haven't seen any related injuries or reason listed.

Baseball America has moved Noble Meyer up to the sixth spot in the draft. His fastball is rated in the mid 90's with lots of late movement and he has a plus slider.

I would take either of these pitchers before I took another outfielder. The Twins need pitching and the closer to the pros the better. I think they have enough young hitting to get them by a few years.

[Fatbat]

16 minutes ago, gman said:

Dolander was considered the top pitcher in the draft when this year began. His fastball is in the mid 90's with good control and a good slider and a plus changeup. His stock has fallen but I haven't seen any related injuries or reason listed.

Baseball America has moved Noble Meyer up to the sixth spot in the draft. His fastball is rated in the mid 90's with lots of late movement and he has a plus slider.

I would take either of these pitchers before I took another outfielder. The Twins need pitching and the closer to the pros the better. I think they have enough young hitting to get them by a few years.

Dollander has been a little inconsistent but has pitched well. Just not lights out like Skenes. He still has ace written all over him. I don’t care what position player is available at 5 either. We need to draft and develop pitching. 

[jishfish]

17 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Dollander has been a little inconsistent but has pitched well. Just not lights out like Skenes. He still has ace written all over him. I don’t care what position player is available at 5 either. We need to draft and develop pitching. 

I just look at the pitchers taken in the top 10 over the past 5-6 years and can't say I would be super happy having spent a top 10 pick on any of them. Not that position players in the top 10 can't bust either, I just think there's so much that goes into pitching development that the better option is to just take a bunch in rounds 3+. Not to mention the rate of injury for pitchers.

Looking at the top pitchers so far this year who are 27 and younger, the rounds they were drafted in were: 3rd, 7th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 3rd, 5th, Comp Round.

Ultimately I agree drafting and developing pitching is a great way to sustain success, I just don't think your odds of doing that at pick #5 are all that much better than in Round #5. But that's just my opinion and I appreciate hearing other peoples thoughts. No 100% right way or wrong way!

[Dman]

2 hours ago, jishfish said:

I would be fine with Skenes at 5 (unlikely he is there, but definitely wouldn't rule it out). Dollander will for sure be there at 5, and I would be extremely disappointed if they take him over Jenkins, Clark, Langford, or even Kyle Teel at this point. I just don't think it's worth passing on the caliber of position player you can get at 5 unless it's someone absolutely special like Skenes.

I tend to agree I think the position players at the top just look too strong to pass up other than maybe Skenes.  I am torn on who the Twins should grab at 5 as Clark and Teel are both up the middle players with potentially good bats.  Everyone seems to think Jenkins is going to hit and hit for power possibly at a Crews\Langford level so that would be tough to pass up as well.  I just don't know who the best pick at 5 is anymore between potentially Jenkins, Clark, Teel and Dollander.

I still think I like Clark best as having elite speed in center is a big deal and it hard to find guys that can run really fast and hit.  There is still controversy on the boards with Teel looking to go in the teens and on Mock has him going number 4 to the Rangers.  I guess it depends on how you feel about the bat and if he will stay behind the plate to take him at number 5.  The system is short on catchers and we have no catchers even in the top 30 prospects at least not yet.  There are some that question Teel's bat so that makes me less certain.  If he can hit all the way up catchers that can hit at the MLB level are hard to find.  It is just that catchers tend to get injured and their development is slower than most positions so not sure I love the risk level there but if the Twins think he is the best pick at number 5 I wouldn't be too disappointed.

Dollander has some really rare pitching skills and he throws hard.  He isn't having a great year but when there are writeups that compare him as one of the better arms that has been seen in quite a while it is hard to just pass on someone like that.  Like you I have my concerns taking pitchers high in the draft as arms break down frequently and sometimes they don't make it back.  Still Dollander has some unique attribute worthy of consideration at number 5 so I could understand if the Twins took on that risk.  Still I think they play it safe and go position player at number 5.

My pick is still Clark at 5 if he is there.  While the Twins have several young outfielders on the way up they don't have anyone with elite speed for center.  5 tool players are hard to find and he can be a 5 tool player with power likely the only skill lacking.  The Twins are going to need to do their homework.  I just hope they grab the right guy at number 5.

 

[jimbo92107]

Of the five guys in these videos, the one that intrigues me most as a possible steal is Joe Whitman. Looked very professional on the mound, good poise, repeatable motion. Gotta be a way to teach him a good change-up to go with that nice heater. Twins system coaches can give his fastball a couple added ticks, you've got at least a good arm for the pen, maybe more. 

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

We should be drafting pitching at 5 and 34. Dollander if he is still there at 5 (Skenes will be gone) and anyone of these guys at 34. We have plenty of position players in the system to cover the turnover rate for the next 3 seasons but we are definitely lacking in topend pitching prospects!

I watched a couple of games where Dollander pitched. He looked pretty hittable. He may indeed have a fair MLB career but he does not project anywhere close to the top five prospects. If you get a chance to find a Ken Griffey Jr., you take him. It doesn't matter if you have Byron Buxton or others. Talent will rise and make a difference in multiple ways for a team. The Twins don't need to get cute. They need to take the best player available. There are plenty of pitchers who will be available to draft. Think of Bailey Ober and guys in the system now like David Festa and Brent Headrick. BPA is the way to go.

[Fatbat]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I watched a couple of games where Dollander pitched. He looked pretty hittable. He may indeed have a fair MLB career but he does not project anywhere close to the top five prospects. If you get a chance to find a Ken Griffey Jr., you take him. It doesn't matter if you have Byron Buxton or others. Talent will rise and make a difference in multiple ways for a team. The Twins don't need to get cute. They need to take the best player available. There are plenty of pitchers who will be available to draft. Think of Bailey Ober and guys in the system now like David Festa and Brent Headrick. BPA is the way to go.

I would take a ken griffey jr all day long at 5 but I think Max Clarke will be gone by 5. I’m still on the Dollander train. He has been trying to mix in a 4th pitch and it seems to have taken his focus off of just throwing strikes and punching out hitters the way he is capable of…. At least last year. I wont be disappointed at who ever is taken at 5 as its a great problem to have. Hopefully its the last time we pick in the lottery for many years to come. Who ever they get, I hope he gets on the fast track to all star status! 

[Mike Sixel]

On 5/20/2023 at 5:12 PM, tony&rodney said:

I watched a couple of games where Dollander pitched. He looked pretty hittable. He may indeed have a fair MLB career but he does not project anywhere close to the top five prospects. If you get a chance to find a Ken Griffey Jr., you take him. It doesn't matter if you have Byron Buxton or others. Talent will rise and make a difference in multiple ways for a team. The Twins don't need to get cute. They need to take the best player available. There are plenty of pitchers who will be available to draft. Think of Bailey Ober and guys in the system now like David Festa and Brent Headrick. BPA is the way to go.

7th on the consensus big board seems pretty close to top 5 to me.........I have no idea where you think he's going, but he's going in the top 10 unless he gets hurt, likely top 7-8.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

On 5/20/2023 at 4:01 PM, gman said:

Dolander was considered the top pitcher in the draft when this year began. His fastball is in the mid 90's with good control and a good slider and a plus changeup. His stock has fallen but I haven't seen any related injuries or reason listed.

Baseball America has moved Noble Meyer up to the sixth spot in the draft. His fastball is rated in the mid 90's with lots of late movement and he has a plus slider.

I would take either of these pitchers before I took another outfielder. The Twins need pitching and the closer to the pros the better. I think they have enough young hitting to get them by a few years.

The Twins have found out there is so much risk when drafting pitchers high that I think they've (at least temporarily) moved on from doing it. And it's worked out for them. They've dealt so many bats for arms and still have pretty good hitter depth in their system. 

With the exception of Skenes falling, I don't see any scenario that it's a pitcher at #5. But I've been wrong and I'm willing to be wrong again.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

7th on the consensus big board seems pretty close to top 5 to me.........I have no idea where you think he's going, but he's going in the top 10 unless he gets hurt, likely top 7-8.

I'm thinking the Twins cannot mess around - take one of the guys who have been consensus top five. Anyways, all is good.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, tony&rodney said:

I'm thinking the Twins cannot mess around - take one of the guys who have been consensus top five. Anyways, all is good.

He was consensus top five not long ago...I hope they aren't picking based on the consensus board!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

On 5/20/2023 at 4:49 PM, jishfish said:

I just look at the pitchers taken in the top 10 over the past 5-6 years and can't say I would be super happy having spent a top 10 pick on any of them. Not that position players in the top 10 can't bust either, I just think there's so much that goes into pitching development that the better option is to just take a bunch in rounds 3+. Not to mention the rate of injury for pitchers.

Looking at the top pitchers so far this year who are 27 and younger, the rounds they were drafted in were: 3rd, 7th, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 3rd, 5th, Comp Round.

Ultimately I agree drafting and developing pitching is a great way to sustain success, I just don't think your odds of doing that at pick #5 are all that much better than in Round #5. But that's just my opinion and I appreciate hearing other peoples thoughts. No 100% right way or wrong way!

No offense,  but the pitching prospects since 2017 has been historically bad.  You have multiple years that have been labeled as the worst pitching prospect classes in the modern era.  When your prospect pool has been bad it is more likely you will have much more variability on success.   Add in 2020 and overall the Twins have had a good philosophy to avoid pitching in the early rounds.  I could see that changing if by some chance Skenes were to drop.  Dollander is a possibility but I still think they would go with a bat.  

[Roaddog]

I have a feeling it's likely Max Clark at 5, which is probably the best way to go. I do love Noble Meyer, but I can see them taking a prep pitcher at 34 instead. Love  Sykora 100 mph fastball plus a splitter? Filthy 

[SteveLV]

Some great arms on display in the CWS.  Big kids with big arms.