Did the Twins Flip Golden Tickets in Lopez and Cano?

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season the Minnesota Twins were looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline, and they found it by acquiring All Star Jorge Lopez from the Baltimore Orioles. Now with Yennier Cano dominating in 2023, did both organizations come out looking rosy?

Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

When the Twins and Orioles got together last year for their deal, it took some time for the pieces to settle in, but things are looking good for all involved at this point.

Derek Falvey thought Rocco Baldelli needed high-leverage bullpen help alongside Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. Emilio Pagan wasn’t cutting it, and Taylor Rogers was long gone. Jorge Lopez was brought in having made his first All-Star game, and he looked like one of the best closers in baseball through the first half.

Needing to part with talent to acquire him (and the 2+ seasons remaining of team control), the Twins opted to send third-round draft pick Cade Povich along with interesting relief prospect, 28-year-old Yennier Cano. Povich was certainly seen as a prized arm in the Minnesota system, and he has fared well at Double-A for Baltimore thus far. Cano dominated in Double-A and Triple-A but struggled in his very brief big-league debut. He was seen, by some fans, as something of a throw-in.

Fast-forward to 2023, and it’s Cano that is immediately paying dividends for a good Orioles team. Through his first 17 games, Cano has yet to allow a single run or walk while striking out 25 batters and giving up just four hits. The early-season run has been nothing short of exceptional, and his dominance is a large part of why the Orioles have been able to hang onto games late.

For the Twins, the re-emergence of Lopez has helped to substantiate their position on the deal as well.

After joining Minnesota last year, things fell off for Lopez. He lost his opportunity to work in the closer role after generating just four saves, and he posted a 4.37 ERA across 22 2/3 innings. The walks were up and the strikeouts were down. As a whole, it was a perfect storm of imperfect results.

Coming into 2023 as a late-inning reliever that would see his teammate Duran get most of the 9th inning work, Lopez has settled in. Through 20 games and 19 2/3 innings this year, Lopez owns a 1.37 ERA and has a 17/7 K/BB. It isn’t ideal that the strikeouts aren’t where they were last year with the Orioles, but he has allowed only 11 hits during his work thus far, and keeping traffic off the base paths has allowed a much more straightforward path to success.

Because Lopez toiled as a starter for so long, the Twins acquired him knowing they could use him for a good amount of time. Wanting to overhaul both the rotation and the bullpen, creating a stable of solid and competitive arms was a must. Making just over $3.5 million this season, Lopez shouldn’t get expensive in 2024 either, and he’ll remain under team control up until he’s a free agent after the 2024 season.

The Twins gave away a significant amount of future value in the form of Cano and Povich. That could have been disastrous should Lopez’s brief amount of work last season been reflective of his future. Instead, the Orioles have made it work with a guy on his way out of Minnesota, and Lopez helping the team win now is something they needed more than future potential contributions from a prospect.

Minnesota has built the start of their 2023 success on the back of their pitching staff, and the hope is that it would continue due to the front office building in high-quality depth in both the rotation and bullpen. Lopez has been a key part of the equation, and seeing him contribute in more than just the months immediately following his acquisition is something everyone can get behind.

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[Dman]

I watched Cano all the way up and he seemed good but not great. I am shocked at how well he is doing this year.  Not shocked that he is good but All-Star worthy? I never would have predicted that ever for him.  His minor league stats were good but I didn't really see dominance there.  So far it looks like I was very wrong.  At the time I was fine with him as a throw in for the supposedly superior Lopez.

Now that Cano is as good or better than Lopez and Povich is K'ing almost everyone he faces this trade hurts my stomach.  I didn't like losing Povich in the deal to begin with but at the time we really needed another dominant relief arm so figured the cost is the cost but with both players working out extremely well for the O's this trade looks lopsided to me.

For a FO that doesn't believe in investing in relievers they sure have paid a high price for a mediocre pen.

[stringer bell]

What I saw from Cano last year was quality stuff, but great inconsistency. He would throw three or four great pitches, maybe get a strikeout and then lose command of the strike zone and groove it. He's older (29?), but the breakout is incredible. 

[Jocko87]

Cano is a good story so far this year but we shouldn't crown him after 21 innings.  Relief pitching is volatile, scouting has been updated and he has a correction coming.  Good for him though, I'm always happy to see traded prospects do well.

[palmspringstwinsfan]

Baltimore, because of its Houston bred FO, is really good at fixing pitchers-Lopez, Tyler Wells, Cano and others. That’s great for them and something the Twins definitely can improve. 

[Dman]

19 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Cano is a good story so far this year but we shouldn't crown him after 21 innings.  Relief pitching is volatile, scouting has been updated and he has a correction coming.  Good for him though, I'm always happy to see traded prospects do well.

Totally agree with you.  Guys will stop swinging at stuff out of the zone once they better figure out the pitch mix. Still this article seems to indicate he is likely to continue to be good.

[chpettit19]

I'm far more worried about losing Povich than Cano at this point. Povich is looking incredibly good, and he's got a chance to debut for the O's this year as a starter. That'd be a much bigger loss than Cano. The O's do seem to be putting themselves up there with the Rays, Guardians, Dodgers, and Astros in terms of pitcher development now, though. Let's not trade them anymore arms. Unless we get Adley or Matt's kid in return.

[Brandon]

If the Twins get what they were trading for, I’m fine with Baltimore getting more long term value from the trade.  That’s how these trades work.  While we got passable results from Lopez last year, He has been great so far this year.  And if he has a sub 2.00 ERA through next season the I think he would be almost exactly what the front office wanted when they traded for him.  If Cade wins 50-60 games in Baltimore and Cano has 5 great seasons then good for Baltimore and hopefully the front office makes more even trades in the future.  If I remember Cano was added as we needed a roster spot.

[adorduan]

Well, except one is team controlled for 5years, the other isn't.

[Eris]

The Twins paid a premium for an all star closer to help secure a playoff spot. He fell apart when he got here and did not help the Twins down the stretch. The Twins will lose this trade. 

[Brandon]

right now i would be more upset at losing Coulombe over to them for nothing.  We need good relievers and had him in spring training and just let him go.  He has a 3.07 ERA at this time.  

[stringer bell]

59 minutes ago, Brandon said:

right now i would be more upset at losing Coulombe over to them for nothing.  We need good relievers and had him in spring training and just let him go.  He has a 3.07 ERA at this time.  

The Twins didn't "just let him go". There was a clause in his minor league contract that allowed him to take a major league contract from another team and the Orioles offered that contract. Secondly, since he was on a minor league contract and in order to put him on the Opening Day roster, they would have to take someone off the 40-man roster. It isn't as simple as "they should have kept Coulombe".

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins didn't "just let him go". There was a clause in his minor league contract that allowed him to take a major league contract from another team and the Orioles offered that contract. Secondly, since he was on a minor league contract and in order to put him on the Opening Day roster, they would have to take someone off the 40-man roster. It isn't as simple as "they should have kept Coulombe".

The Twins could have kept him on the major league roster to begin the season.  He was good enough to be on the roster.  And I am not bashing the Decision either as this is for the 13th man on the pitching staff.  I’m just jointing out something that could be more upsetting vs a trade that works out for both parties.

[Doctor Wu]

I've been following what Cano is doing in Baltimore and knew that he hasn't allowed a run so far this year ... but no walks also?! That's perhaps even more of an impressive stat. Good for him. But like others on this board, I sure didn't see it coming. And also as others have said, the season is still young! I'm not hoping he implodes or anything, and it would be cool to see him in the All-Star game, but I'm sure at some point in the near future he will give up a few runs!

[rv78]

When you give up 2 players for 1 in the hopes of the 1 player helping you into the playoffs and he fails, then the trade is a fail. That was the main purpose of the trade and it didn't happen. Could it be the Twins FO just isn't very good at evaluating talent or maybe even more disturbing, is the coaches aren't very good at getting the players to perform at a high level when they have that talent. 

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Cano is a good story so far this year but we shouldn't crown him after 21 innings.  Relief pitching is volatile, scouting has been updated and he has a correction coming.  Good for him though, I'm always happy to see traded prospects do well.

So, I agree on Cano & premature timing for crown judgement ….,..also hope he does well.

Same for López. Although, after 20 innings for Twins last year I had him ranked right next to Pagán. I wanted him released. Even with great start this year, he scares me. He’s had a couple outings where he came in for Jax & let the guys on base score……Jax ERA up ….Lopez, unscathed. He doesn’t seem to throw strikes in high leverage situations, with base runners. He looks fantastic starting an inning fresh but once he allows runners his command seems to drift, regularly! I get nobody is perfect but his stuff (velocity plus pitch array) is really good but he, like Pagan, throws too many middle/middle pitches in tight spots.

Have seen him give up 0-2 hits more than once. Whoever is calling the game may have some responsibility but my assumption is it’s ultimately the pitcher’s end call on what’s thrown. He just doesn’t seem to have the right stuff between his ears.

Anyway, my question all along, particularly late last season when he really struggled, is why would a team around .500 trade an All-Star reliever? He was under contract for 2 1/2 more years and not expensive………I think they knew he had/has some weakness between the ears & it was too soon to judge him for the long term.

[Blyleven2011]

7 hours ago, rv78 said:

When you give up 2 players for 1 in the hopes of the 1 player helping you into the playoffs and he fails, then the trade is a fail. That was the main purpose of the trade and it didn't happen. Could it be the Twins FO just isn't very good at evaluating talent or maybe even more disturbing, is the coaches aren't very good at getting the players to perform at a high level when they have that talent. 

I'd say alittle of both but tend to lean towards our professional  coaches who  should take the criticism ...

I have said many times that the coaches have the talent but don't do anything to take that talent  to another higher level  ...

Must be a easy job being a coach and getting a pay check too ...