Good enough to win Central

[Number3]

Haven't been on the discussion much; just checking scores and box scores and watching highlights on youtube so the games are 5 minutes instead of still about 3 hours in spite of the clock. Anyway, it does appear that this year's version is good enough to win the Central and maybe winning the season's series against the Yankees already is an omen. It is an interesting team to follow and the division competition is not scary so maybe playoff games are ahead. Upcoming Dodgers series is a good benchmark as was the win against San Diego who is all in on free agents and winning the World Series. The offensive explosion against the Cubs was fun and at least will pad the season stats.

[Vanimal46]

So far so good as we hit the 25% mark in the season. I don’t have much faith in the Tigers staying relevant, so it is a 2 team race to get to 85 wins. 

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, the bats are coming back a bit. It would be a bit surprising if the Twins didn't win the central at this point BUT the pitching will come back down. There is no way this staff will maintain a 133 ERA+ all season (it would be cool if they did, of course). So I'd like to see the bats continue to improve. 

I have to say, Sonny Gray is kinda reminding me of 2014 Phil Hughes. Out of nowhere, he finished second in fWAR that year. Would love for that to happen again.

[dex8425]

57 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, the bats are coming back a bit. It would be a bit surprising if the Twins didn't win the central at this point BUT the pitching will come back down. There is no way this staff will maintain a 133 ERA+ all season (it would be cool if they did, of course). So I'd like to see the bats continue to improve. 

I have to say, Sonny Gray is kinda reminding me of 2014 Phil Hughes. Out of nowhere, he finished second in fWAR that year. Would love for that to happen again.

I was going to say his start reminds me of 2017 Ervin Santana. Both Sonny and Ervin had reeived Cy Young votes in one other year and were all stars one other year, but mostly throughout their career were solid #2/#3 starters.  Santana led the league in complete games and threw three complete game shutouts. After that year, Santana was not effective. Gray is of similar age to Santana back then, but I have to think Gray will be effective beyond this year. 

[gunnarthor]

7 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

I was going to say his start reminds me of 2017 Ervin Santana. Both Sonny and Ervin had reeived Cy Young votes in one other year and were all stars one other year, but mostly throughout their career were solid #2/#3 starters.  Santana led the league in complete games and threw three complete game shutouts. After that year, Santana was not effective. Gray is of similar age to Santana back then, but I have to think Gray will be effective beyond this year. 

You know, you're right. Better comparison. 

[Elite Benchwarmer]

58 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

I was going to say his start reminds me of 2017 Ervin Santana. Both Sonny and Ervin had reeived Cy Young votes in one other year and were all stars one other year, but mostly throughout their career were solid #2/#3 starters.  Santana led the league in complete games and threw three complete game shutouts. After that year, Santana was not effective. Gray is of similar age to Santana back then, but I have to think Gray will be effective beyond this year. 

I thought this comparison was interesting, so I had to look it up.  Sonny Gray's (top) age 33 season vs Santana's age 34 season.  A couple things stand out to me:  1) Gray's 312 ERA+ YTD is almost certainly unsustainable, 2) his career ERA+ of 120 is quite a bit higher than Santana (101), and 3) B-R has Gray at career WAR of 26.9 vs Santana 27.0.

 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It’s not far fetched to say that Gray might pitch to this level through the All Star Break. Additional good comps would be Scott Erickson and Francisco Liriano, who were pure magic for half a season before probabilities caught up to them. 

[LastOnePicked]

Anyone who followed the 2022 Twins ought to approach predictions of a division championship with extreme caution. This year's team has already lost 40% of the starting rotation, and has very limited options waiting in the upper minors. The Guardians have proven they can out-pitch the Twins, and are led by a vastly superior manager and much stronger developmental system. Despite a very poor start, they are only 3,5 games back of the Twins. By even as soon as next Monday, this could be a very different conversation. I think this is still Cleveland's division to lose.

[dex8425]

18 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Anyone who followed the 2022 Twins ought to approach predictions of a division championship with extreme caution. This year's team has already lost 40% of the starting rotation, and has very limited options waiting in the upper minors. The Guardians have proven they can out-pitch the Twins, and are led by a vastly superior manager and much stronger developmental system. Despite a very poor start, they are only 3,5 games back of the Twins. By even as soon as next Monday, this could be a very different conversation. I think this is still Cleveland's division to lose.

They have pitching, but 2.5 bats if you are being generous and Clase has looked kinda hittable. They are given 22 percent chance to make the postseason and projected record of 79-83. Twins have 79 percent chance of making playoffs according to Fangraphs. Nobody thinks this is Cleveland's division to lose except Cleveland players/fans. 

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

It’s not far fetched to say that Gray might pitch to this level through the All Star Break. Additional good comps would be Scott Erickson and Francisco Liriano, who were pure magic for half a season before probabilities caught up to them. 

If I recall, Erickson and Liriano both suffered injuries that impacted their seasons greatly. 

[stringer bell]

Frankly, I don't want the Twins to be good enough to win the Central. I want them to be good enough to go toe-to-toe with any playoff team. The long playoff losing streak must end and personally I won't be satisfied with just making the playoffs.

[JD-TWINS]

4 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, the bats are coming back a bit. It would be a bit surprising if the Twins didn't win the central at this point BUT the pitching will come back down. There is no way this staff will maintain a 133 ERA+ all season (it would be cool if they did, of course). So I'd like to see the bats continue to improve. 

I have to say, Sonny Gray is kinda reminding me of 2014 Phil Hughes. Out of nowhere, he finished second in fWAR that year. Would love for that to happen again.

Our current starting 5 in the rotation are excellent! (Maeda & Mahle were 1-6) The existing rotation boasts a record of 15-3 with a 2.53 ERA…..outstanding. Can’t maintain that but can be consistently good with 5 guys to lean on……would like to see Headrick & Maeda & Balazovic  in the Pen by early-mid June with………Jax-Lopez-Thielbar-Pagan-Duran.

[stringer bell]

1 minute ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

These next two series should answer that question Stringer.

I don't know if any series in May answers questions for the season. Too much happens in the meantime.

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

These next two series should answer that question Stringer.

.500 on the road out West & remainder of season ………..with 5 games over at home for each quadrant of the season & we win 91 games.

Should be enough for the Division title!

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, dex8425 said:

Nobody thinks this is Cleveland's division to lose except Cleveland players/fans. 

This will be a fun post to return to later in the season. We shall see how it all goes. 

[KirbyDome89]

30 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Frankly, I don't want the Twins to be good enough to win the Central. I want them to be good enough to go toe-to-toe with any playoff team. The long playoff losing streak must end and personally I won't be satisfied with just making the playoffs.

This is the correct answer. The AL Central is a dumpster fire. 

I'd take it a step further and say win a playoff series, even if it's a 3 vs. 6 WC matchup; just win an entire series. I'll still cringe if we're sitting here in October celebrating a series loss because the longest losing streak in NA sports has been broken. 

[ashbury]

59 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

These next two series should answer that question Stringer.

Nothing gets answered in May.

But the Dodgers series should provide a meaningful progress report.

 

/ edit - welp, shoulda kept reading before posting

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, dex8425 said:

They have pitching, but 2.5 bats if you are being generous and Clase has looked kinda hittable. They are given 22 percent chance to make the postseason and projected record of 79-83. Twins have 79 percent chance of making playoffs according to Fangraphs. Nobody thinks this is Cleveland's division to lose except Cleveland players/fans. 

I wouldn't put any stock in postseason odds on May 15th. I'd bet MN had pretty high postseason odds on June 1st last year, and then they played 3 months of sub .500 ball before completely collapsing. 

Right now MN and Cleveland almost mirror each other as far as pitching and offense (or lack thereof) go. The wildcard is of course health. 

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

These next two series should answer that question Stringer.

Eh, I think that question is already answered. The offense is nowhere near good enough to compete with the actual contenders. They need to start crushing it with the prospect bats. If a few of them start showing off in the second half of the year, then I'll believe they can hang with the big boys next year.

[Nine of twelve]

15 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Eh, I think that question is already answered. The offense is nowhere near good enough to compete with the actual contenders. They need to start crushing it with the prospect bats. If a few of them start showing off in the second half of the year, then I'll believe they can hang with the big boys next year.

Even though it's only one game the offense was plenty good enough to compete with the Dodgers last night.

[Squirrel]

15 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Eh, I think that question is already answered. The offense is nowhere near good enough to compete with the actual contenders. They need to start crushing it with the prospect bats. If a few of them start showing off in the second half of the year, then I'll believe they can hang with the big boys next year.

We are seeing some life from the offense. And, it's still early, imo. And playoff games are different than making it through a season. As I said, I think it's too early to know. For me, it's about staying healthy, so we'll see where we are at the All-Star break and beyond.

[Parfigliano]

19 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

These next two series should answer that question Stringer.

Beat Padres and hung with the Dodgers last night.  Baby steps.

[1991]

Guys, please... This Twins lineup has to win the Division to get into the playoffs.  There won't be a wildcard team from the NC Central.  That said, they will not advance in the playoffs.  Teams better than the Twins - Tampa, Boston, Toronto, Yanks, Stros and maybe Rangers and Seattle.