You're Wrong to Not Like Max Kepler

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, Twodogs said:

Wasn't he the MVP of the NLCS? 

Hasn't he absolutely sucked other than that one series?

[Aerodeliria]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Kepler had a pull percentage of 50.8 in 2019. Highest of his career. He was at 42.6, 41.9, and 41.7 the last 3 seasons. 

I'm not sure what a pull percentage refers to and how it is calculated. It certainly doesn't mean that Kepler is hitting 60% of the pitches the other way.

However it is calculated, I think my recollection is correct. There was an attempt at some point to try to get Kepler to hit the ball more up the middle and to left center because he was having such a difficult time hitting left handers who were pounding the outside part of the plate against him. Correct me if I am wrong, but I remember commentators discussing it on one my my rare occasions to actually watch a Twins game on TV (maybe it wasn't 2019?). In any case, he has not been effective against lefties despite his HR against Cleveland.

Since 2021: Ave: .190. OBP: 283 SLG: .292 (against lefties)

Am I wrong about this? (I'm not being sardonic here. I am really curious.)

[chpettit19]

51 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

I'm not sure what a pull percentage refers to and how it is calculated. It certainly doesn't mean that Kepler is hitting 60% of the pitches the other way.

However it is calculated, I think my recollection is correct. There was an attempt at some point to try to get Kepler to hit the ball more up the middle and to left center because he was having such a difficult time hitting left handers who were pounding the outside part of the plate against him. Correct me if I am wrong, but I remember commentators discussing it on one my my rare occasions to actually watch a Twins game on TV (maybe it wasn't 2019?). In any case, he has not been effective against lefties despite his HR against Cleveland.

Since 2021: Ave: .190. OBP: 283 SLG: .292 (against lefties)

Am I wrong about this? (I'm not being sardonic here. I am really curious.)

Pull percentage is the number of balls he put in play that were pulled. It's nothing complicated, just breaking the field into 3 sections (pull, middle, oppo) and tracking where players hit the ball. His career numbers with his average at the bottom:

There has absolutely been an attempt by him to go the opposite way, or back through the middle, more. I don't remember exactly when it became a big talking point, though. He's always been pull heavy (league average this year is 36.8 pull, 37.7 straight, 25.4 oppo), and likely always will be. His swing is just very stiff, and it ends up leading to a lot of popups, or grounders. I was just pointing out that he has by no means gotten away from attempting to go up the middle, or the other way, since 2019. It's interesting that his most pull heavy season was his best season, but I don't think anyone expects him to hit 30 homers a year again, so being as pull heavy now likely isn't a great option.

[weitz41]

You could argue either way about Kepler. Sure, a young player is cheaper and may have more upside. They could also struggle, underperform and possibly cost the team games.

The problem I have is none of our OF prospects have taken a roster spot and ran with it. None have been league average over a period of time. Until one does Kepler should be our starting RFer. Including next season's option.

On a team in 1st place I'll take the more consistent Kep over the rollercoaster we've had with a young player.

 

[Major League Ready]

15 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

All of that and Larnach & Kiriloff have still not produced. 

What does that have to do with the decision to let Rosario go?  That decision should be evaluated based on what he did after he left.  The relative production of those who followed is a different discussion.   To complain they let him go would make perfect sense had he performed well after leaving.  To complain they let him go when he has been absolutely horrible is absurd.  Apparently, you thought it was a bad idea when he was let go and now you are ignoring the fact that he has been among the very worst OFers in the entire league.  If you want to complain his replacements have not been significantly better, that's debatable and we can have that discussion.   To argue it was a mistake to cut Rosario requires we ignore that he has been among the very worst corner OFers in the league.  We were better off with pretty much anyone else so to keep arguing letting Rosario go was a mistake demonstrates a wildly biased lack of logic. 

BTW .... Kirilloff has been hurt which slowed the process but I would bet a lot of money Kirilloff performs far better going forward than Rosario has since he left or his last couple years with the Twins.   Larnach has not been great but he has been better than Rosario.  A better player on a rookie salary and $10M/yr to invest elsewhere is an absolute no brainer.   

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I've been sort of 'meh' on Kepler for quite a while. I remember in 2019, the hitting coaches were trying to get Kepler to hit to center and somewhat to the left side. It appeared to be working. At some point after that, this idea was trashed for some reason and he reverted to dead pull hitting once again. It's a pity because I thought he would eventually be an about a .270 hitter and hit about 25 home runs each year. His defending has also dropped off a bit as well, but he's much better than the alternatives.

I’d be ecstatic if he hit .245 - still a long season so he’s got a shot at getting to this level. He’s missed a little time & still he’s on pace for 24 HR. He’s still very much above average in RF!

With Larnach’s swoon & Gallo reverting to his past, Max looks solid in his position for the foreseeable future!

Hope he stays hot with the HR power - he looks like a doubles machine with his speed and power, would be great to see a couple doubles per week……..I guess he only gets 5 hits per week, so can’t be greedy.

[Linus]

Max has a nice swing so I thought he would figure it out as a hitter. As far as getting rid of him we can do so when one of our vaunted prospects pushes him aside. Which I don’t think is going to happen. I don’t think Larnach or Wallner will ever be everyday big leaguers so Max will be with us until E Rod comes up. 

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

What does that have to do with the decision to let Rosario go?  That decision should be evaluated based on what he did after he left.  The relative production of those who followed is a different discussion.   To complain they let him go would make perfect sense had he performed well after leaving.  To complain they let him go when he has been absolutely horrible is absurd.  Apparently, you thought it was a bad idea when he was let go and now you are ignoring the fact that he has been among the very worst OFers in the entire league.  If you want to complain his replacements have not been significantly better, that's debatable and we can have that discussion.   To argue it was a mistake to cut Rosario requires we ignore that he has been among the very worst corner OFers in the league.  We were better off with pretty much anyone else so to keep arguing letting Rosario go was a mistake demonstrates a wildly biased lack of logic. 

BTW .... Kirilloff has been hurt which slowed the process but I would bet a lot of money Kirilloff performs far better going forward than Rosario has since he left or his last couple years with the Twins.   Larnach has not been great but he has been better than Rosario.  A better player on a rookie salary and $10M/yr to invest elsewhere is an absolute no brainer.   

Bottom line is we let Rosario go and our production in the spot he vacated has not been to the level it was before he left.  Spin that any way you like but the production has NOT been there.  And sure, we can look at what his production has been elsewhere and ATTEMPT to spin that into what his production would have been here since he left.  Fact is we don't know what he would have done had he stayed here.  Nor do we KNOW what Kirilloff would have done had he stayed healthy.  AND if we want to base an analysis on what he HAS done since he left, he HAS been to the post-season both years.  Us, not so much.  Maybe that don't mean much to you but it does to me.  I tend to look beyond the bottom line analytic stuff at thing that analytics can't measure.  Rosario brought heart to the table.  Can we measure that?  NO!  Can we see it.  NO.  But you know what we CAN see.  We can see when it's missing.  Like when a team goes from the division lead to 10 games back in the last month of the season.

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Bottom line is we let Rosario go and our production in the spot he vacated has not been to the level it was before he left.  Spin that any way you like but the production has NOT been there.  And sure, we can look at what his production has been elsewhere and ATTEMPT to spin that into what his production would have been here since he left.  Fact is we don't know what he would have done had he stayed here.  Nor do we KNOW what Kirilloff would have done had he stayed healthy.  AND if we want to base an analysis on what he HAS done since he left, he HAS been to the post-season both years.  Us, not so much.  Maybe that don't mean much to you but it does to me.  I tend to look beyond the bottom line analytic stuff at thing that analytics can't measure.  Rosario brought heart to the table.  Can we measure that?  NO!  Can we see it.  NO.  But you know what we CAN see.  We can see when it's missing.  Like when a team goes from the division lead to 10 games back in the last month of the season.

I started out a huge Rosario fan.  He was probably my favorite player.  Now, I am just glad I don't have to watch the horrendous ABs he took swinging at balls a foot or more out of the zone.  Heart is great until it makes you stupid and Rosario wanted to be the hero which probably contributed to the bad ABs and stupid plays in the OF.  I don't want to watch that kind of baseball.

I do agree that the production has been inadequate.  However, to suggest Rosario would have been good had he stayed is blind bias IMO.  He had not been good since the first half of 2018 so to suggest he would have been the answer is a huge leap.

[Jocko87]

13 hours ago, weitz41 said:

You could argue either way about Kepler. Sure, a young player is cheaper and may have more upside. They could also struggle, underperform and possibly cost the team games.

The problem I have is none of our OF prospects have taken a roster spot and ran with it. None have been league average over a period of time. Until one does Kepler should be our starting RFer. Including next season's option.

On a team in 1st place I'll take the more consistent Kep over the rollercoaster we've had with a young player.

 

And I think this is where the front office comes down as well.  Had Larnach or Wallner been obviously that dude, we may have seen the last of Max already.  I'm starting to think one of them is traded before Kepler.  They certainly value a rock solid lineup lock that is consistently solid but not spectacular at a very reasonable price.  Its hard to get more value trading that than playing it.  One of those two is a larger return and they know them best.  Remember that if AK was healthy Larnach doesn't even break camp.

They may be looking pretty smart in that calculation as he has been much better than Larnach and for the most part been very solid and starting to even heat up.  I was noodling thorough his savant page and found the following interesting.  He is simply hitting the ball much harder than he has recently and especially compared to the banner 2019 season.  His expected numbers are all higher than the actuals and the lack of elite launch angle is probably nipping a lot of production.  If he can keep hitting the ball this hard he will be worth every penny he's paid.  I don't see getting that plus equivalent defense out of Wallner or Larnach.  The FO is looking pretty good on this path so far.

[Jocko87]

Further.  This is a pretty solid MLB player.

[Squirrel]

Mod note: Get off the Rosario stuff and stick to the topic. This thread about Kepler has absolutely nothing to do with Rosario. If you want to discuss long ago moves, start your own discussion thread or start a blog. 

[PopRiveter]

On 5/6/2023 at 2:46 PM, dxpavelka said:

What's a shining moment in the post-season?

Comment of the week! Made me laugh out loud.

[Fred]

On 5/7/2023 at 6:46 AM, weitz41 said:

You could argue either way about Kepler. Sure, a young player is cheaper and may have more upside. They could also struggle, underperform and possibly cost the team games.

The problem I have is none of our OF prospects have taken a roster spot and ran with it. None have been league average over a period of time. Until one does Kepler should be our starting RFer. Including next season's option.

On a team in 1st place I'll take the more consistent Kep over the rollercoaster we've had with a young player.

 

Until RF becomes a position that values defense (C, CF, SS) over offense, I believe Kepler is, at best, limited in his value. The Twins seem to have a problem producing runs which is usually the job of the guys on the corners (infield and outfield).