Twins' Season May Hinge on Bounce Backs from Outfielders

[Hunter McCall]

The Twins' 2023 season could be made or lost depending on the performance of these outfielders coming off disappointing 2022 seasons.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

There is much promise centered around the Twins' 2023 outfielders. Adding Joey Gallo to the group brings high upside to an outfield already very talented on paper. The problem is most of the players the Twins will be relying on to play the outfield in 2023 are coming off down or injury-plagued years. How they respond in 2023 could make or break the playoff hopes of this talented squad.

Byron Buxton
Stop me if you've heard this before: Byron Buxton is coming off a season shortened by injury. When Buxton is on the field, there are very few players on the planet who can match his skill set. However, Buxton played only 92 games in 2022 and has only played more than 92 games just once in his career. The Twins have tried different methods to keep the uber-talented Buxton healthy, but so far, to no avail. In 2023, the team will try a new method that they hope can get Buxton to play more games and be healthy for a playoff push at the end of the season.

Buxton is starting the year as the team's primary designated hitter. Through the first couple weeks of the season, we have seen a steady dosage of Michael A. Taylor out in center field due to this approach. If the Twins' plan works and Buxton can play 120+ games in 2023, this alone could push the Twins over the hump into contender territory, making this one of the most important storylines to watch this season.

Joey Gallo
The newly-acquired Joey Gallo has played well to start the season, which is an excellent sign for the left-handed slugger. Entering the season, Gallo is coming off the worst year of his career in 2022, but there is plenty of hope for a bounce-back year in 2023, as shown by his early flashes. He is still only 29 years old, Gallo should have a lot left in the tank. He plays excellent defense and has excellent plate discipline, allowing him to take walks at a higher clip than 90% of the league. While Gallo strikes out as much as almost anyone, he rarely chases pitches out of the zone and adds a ton of power potential to the lineup.

Gallo has already mashed three home runs in the young season, a feat which he didn't accomplish until early May last season. The limitations placed on the shift may also help Gallo improve his consistently low batting average. Gallo was an all-star as recently as 2021 and blames his poor 2022 on being in an environment that was mentally straining. Gallo has already noted this spring that he feels much more comfortable with the Twins in a smaller market than with the Yankees and Dodgers, where he felt far more pressure to perform. If Gallo can rebound in 2023, the Twins may have snagged the steal of the offseason.

Max Kepler
In 2019, Max Kepler looked like one of the young st ars in baseball. Since then, he has shown flashes of greatness but has been unable to put it together consistently. In what could be his last go around with the Twins, Max Kepler will look to return close to the form that saw him hit 36 home runs with a .855 OPS in 2019. Though his 2019 season looks like the outlier in his statistical history, Kepler could find a median ground between 2019 and his seasons since. Like Gallo, Kepler should benefit from new shift limitations since he is a dead pull-hitter who was shifted on in 90% of his at-bats in 2022.

Even though his numbers were discouraging at the plate, Kepler's StatCast page was bright red in 2022, suggesting that he may have been slightly unlucky. Kepler also adds elite-level defense from his right field spot, making him a valuable asset no matter how badly he struggles at the plate. Kepler has already landed on the IL early in the season, but the injury appears minor and should require just a short stint. If Kepler can get back in the lineup and provide more offense this season, he could be one of the Twins' most valuable contributors.

Trevor Larnach
When Larnach was healthy last season, he looked like a young star in the making. Before getting injured, Trevor Larnach mashed the ball and played great defense. The problem is multiple injuries led to him only playing 51 games in 2022. The current hype around Larnach is at an all-time high due to a massive spring performance where he produced an OPS of 1.130. Injuries to Alex Kirilloff and Jorge Polanco, as well as his spring performance, have cemented Larnach in the heart of the Twins' lineup, and he has proven he belongs. The season is early, but through the ten games, Larnach has reached safely in every game. He has a current batting average of .308 and a .849 OPS. If he can continue to carry his momentum from the last couple of months and stay healthy, Larnach could be one of the Twins' most valuable players in 2023.

The four guys mentioned above won't be the only contributors in the outfield in 2023, but they have the most to prove. There is reason for optimism behind every one of them, and if they can bounce back to have big years, the ceiling for this Twins team rises significantly. The Twins should be a good team in 2023, but the season's fate may hinge on whether or not these four players can rebound from a disappointing 2022 season.

What is your favorite storyline to follow early in the 2023 season? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[mikelink45]

Buxton and Larnach are the keys.  We need both in the lineup and in the field.  Taylor on the bench is a good back up.  Beyond that my expectations are low.  We need another prospect in the OF, but unless Julien plays there I do not see who it will be. Unless Rodriguez really burns up the minors. 

[Hunter McCall]

10 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

Buxton and Larnach are the keys.  We need both in the lineup and in the field.  Taylor on the bench is a good back up.  Beyond that my expectations are low.  We need another prospect in the OF, but unless Julien plays there I do not see who it will be. Unless Rodriguez really burns up the minors. 

Due to Rodriguez's age and inexperience, I would say he's well over a year away from being looked at to play in the majors. Buxton and Larnach's health is very important, but don't give up on Kepler and Gallo. If they come back from injury and maintain high-level defense, if they fulfill their potential at the plate, they will be more than key contributors for the Twins!

[Doctor Gast]

Buxton & Larnach have the bats but the story line is can we keep them on the field? Hopefully with Paparesta philosophy we can. Gallo & Kepler can they bounce back now the shift is gone? With Gallo it's also being away from NYYs, But the Twins greatest need isn't Gallo tacking on HR after HR but getting hits when we need them & not SOs. Kepler is the one we really need to have turn it around, not only contributing to the offense but also someone we can trade down the line and get someone we need for him.

[terrydactyls]

43 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Buxton & Larnach have the bats but the story line is can we keep them on the field? Hopefully with Paparesta philosophy we can. Gallo & Kepler can they bounce back now the shift is gone? With Gallo it's also being away from NYYs, But the Twins greatest need isn't Gallo tacking on HR after HR but getting hits when we need them & not SOs. Kepler is the one we really need to have turn it around, not only contributing to the offense but also someone we can trade down the line and get someone we need for him.

Paparesta??  Isn't that the guys that chase after celebrities trying to take their pictures?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Nice break down.  Unquestionably, a stronger season from one of their outfielders would be very beneficial, but that's not quite the entire story.  Realistically, Buxton is likely to be successful in a manner similar to last year, and with Taylor around, the urgency to have him play center field isn't as intense. Taylor, for his part, looks like he will be a model of "OK"ness with the bat, which is also fine along with the as advertised defensive chops.  Larnach looks to be beginning to truly break out.  Kepler and Gallo are real wildcards, although Gallo in particular looks to be making some progress.  However, at the end of the day, it depends as much on the situational aspect of their hitting as anything.  Taylor was extraordinarily valuable in the game yesterday, but on another day, his contributions wouldn't have made the difference.  If the offense ever starts to all wake up at the same time, they could be excellent.  This is the time of year when patience is hard to have, because we are looking at the small sample size low batting averages and OPS's and going crazy.  Give it three or four more weeks.  We'll know a lot more then, plus some of the reinforcements might be closer to ready by then.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I feel like Kepler is going to be fighting to come back if everyone else is healthy. I also think that Royce Lewis might be in this mix come June. But yeah, hopefully health is good for this group.

[Hunter McCall]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Nice break down.  Unquestionably, a stronger season from one of their outfielders would be very beneficial, but that's not quite the entire story.  Realistically, Buxton is likely to be successful in a manner similar to last year, and with Taylor around, the urgency to have him play center field isn't as intense. Taylor, for his part, looks like he will be a model of "OK"ness with the bat, which is also fine along with the as advertised defensive chops.  Larnach looks to be beginning to truly break out.  Kepler and Gallo are real wildcards, although Gallo in particular looks to be making some progress.  However, at the end of the day, it depends as much on the situational aspect of their hitting as anything.  Taylor was extraordinarily valuable in the game yesterday, but on another day, his contributions wouldn't have made the difference.  If the offense ever starts to all wake up at the same time, they could be excellent.  This is the time of year when patience is hard to have, because we are looking at the small sample size low batting averages and OPS's and going crazy.  Give it three or four more weeks.  We'll know a lot more then, plus some of the reinforcements might be closer to ready by then.

Thank you for your input! I agree with all of it! Buxton and Larnach have ALWAYS played well... when they play. Their version of a bounce back season isn't necessarily performance, but rather staying on the field so they can showcase their talents. Kepler and Gallo are where things get interesting. They are both coming off down years for various reasons. Can the Twins get versions of them that produce at a high-level as we've seen in the past? If the answer to that question is yes, with the pitching the Twins have, they could be real contenders.

As far as the lineup's subpar performance has gone so far, I think it's not something to worry too much about. Health is most important. Getting back any of Polanco, Kirilloff, Kepler, Gallo, or Correa will help a ton. Correa and Miranda are struggling right now, but both have started slow in the past, and both player's past profiles and performance suggest they are going to hit, it's just a matter of when. The fact that the Twins are winning important games against good teams with the injuries they have and the underwhelming starts by some of their studs is a VERY good thing. They have plenty of room for positive regression at the plate that I think will come rather soon.

I appreciate the comment! Go, Twins!

[Hunter McCall]

6 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I feel like Kepler is going to be fighting to come back if everyone else is healthy. I also think that Royce Lewis might be in this mix come June. But yeah, hopefully health is good for this group.

We should see Kepler in New York later this week according to all accounts, so fingers crossed there! Royce Lewis will certainly help the Twins all over when he does return. Health is definitely the key with this group! If this team is able to stay healthy and let guys like Solano and Farmer be the role player guys that they were brought in to be, this team will do great things. If they are forced to play every day like they have been, the team will need to continue to lean on their excellent pitching and hope to scrap runs together. I'm hoping for the healthy option!

[bloomwcjkl]

Kepler looks washed. Not the start he needed.

The Gallo intercostal/oblique type injury is not good. Those can linger and linger.

Age and cold weather is not a good mix.

Exited to see Julien. Larnach looks legit. I hope Wallner can prove the same. Youth movement.

[Eris]

Not sure I agree with the bit about Gallo playing excellent defense. Maybe at 1B. With his brief stint in RF it seems that Gallo could not catch 2 balls that Kepler would have made look easy. Gallo has a cannon. Maybe we are spoiled by watching Kepler all these years. And they are both on the DL. 

[Hunter McCall]

41 minutes ago, Eris said:

Not sure I agree with the bit about Gallo playing excellent defense. Maybe at 1B. With his brief stint in RF it seems that Gallo could not catch 2 balls that Kepler would have made look easy. Gallo has a cannon. Maybe we are spoiled by watching Kepler all these years. And they are both on the DL. 

Joey Gallo is a two time gold glover, so yes his defense in the outfield is considered good. One of the best arms in the game, and runs fairly well. Played a lot of center field for the Rangers. Once he is getting full-time playing time out there I think we'll see him showcase his defense a little more. As you mentioned, he's also excellent defensively at first.

[PatPfund]

OF is indeed a key position, and this was a great summary.

If Taylor in the field means more healthy Byron at-bats, I'm fine with it (though I suspect at some point Buxton will get field time). Especially up to the point that we actually have some potent bats on the bench to DH (which with injuries and slow starts, we really don't).

Max in particular needs to get healthy, and needs to start hitting, or he is a prime candidate to find bench time (or be this year's Tyler Duffey). Kepler (one of my personal favorites) isn't coming off a down year, but a batch of them with an increase in leg injuries mixing with a low average and loss of power. An outfield of Gordon, Taylor/Buxton, and Larnach/Gallo looks far more potent than one that includes Max (with Wallner and Lewis jostling to push Kepler further down the order).

If Julien hits and/or Polo returns, Gordon's bat (like last year) may demand a run in the lineup, and that is most likely to be on the OF grass.

[Hunter McCall]

6 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

OF is indeed a key position, and this was a great summary.

If Taylor in the field means more healthy Byron at-bats, I'm fine with it (though I suspect at some point Buxton will get field time). Especially up to the point that we actually have some potent bats on the bench to DH (which with injuries and slow starts, we really don't).

Max in particular needs to get healthy, and needs to start hitting, or he is a prime candidate to find bench time (or be this year's Tyler Duffey). Kepler (one of my personal favorites) isn't coming off a down year, but a batch of them with an increase in leg injuries mixing with a low average and loss of power. An outfield of Gordon, Taylor/Buxton, and Larnach/Gallo looks far more potent than one that includes Max (with Wallner and Lewis jostling to push Kepler further down the order).

If Julien hits and/or Polo returns, Gordon's bat (like last year) may demand a run in the lineup, and that is most likely to be on the OF grass.

Exactly right! The frustrating part about Max Kepler is we see flashes of a very good hitter and it gives reason not to give up on him. You’re right though… the cavalry is coming! Prospects plus players getting healthy will be a fun story line to follow over the early parts of the season! Who stays on the roster and who goes? Is there a path for regular playing time for guys like Julien once everyone’s healthy? We’ll see! Thanks for the input!!

[jkcarew]

This was true when the season started. Two weeks in, it's certainly still true. The good news is that we're off to an 8-4 start, with most of the OF stories being negative so far (Larnach the exception). The bad news is, it's probably not sustainable without a couple more of these guys coming through.

If Buxton is healthy the ENTIRE year, but only plays DH...his WAR will end up about the same as it was in 2021 and 2022 when he played 60-90 games. If we want a 'bounce-back' in value provided by Buxton...he HAS to play CF at some point. Sitting where we sit now, (with today's base running disaster staring us in the face), it seems a long-shot.

Not only will we need at least one of Kepler/Gallo....I'd say we need two of Kepler/Gallo/Kirilloff to have good years. Again, probably something that was, and always will be, true about 2023's roster.

[Doctor Wu]

Good article. Sure, the performance, and health, of our outfielders will be a big key to a winning season, but the headline of the article made me wonder. I would say that the key to a winning/playoff-bound season will hinge more on the performance of the pitching staff, particularly the starters. If even 4 of our main 5 starters can stay healthy and  pitch as well as they have the first 2 weeks of the season we'll be in very good shape. 

[Hunter McCall]

11 hours ago, jkcarew said:

This was true when the season started. Two weeks in, it's certainly still true. The good news is that we're off to an 8-4 start, with most of the OF stories being negative so far (Larnach the exception). The bad news is, it's probably not sustainable without a couple more of these guys coming through.

If Buxton is healthy the ENTIRE year, but only plays DH...his WAR will end up about the same as it was in 2021 and 2022 when he played 60-90 games. If we want a 'bounce-back' in value provided by Buxton...he HAS to play CF at some point. Sitting where we sit now, (with today's base running disaster staring us in the face), it seems a long-shot.

Not only will we need at least one of Kepler/Gallo....I'd say we need two of Kepler/Gallo/Kirilloff to have good years. Again, probably something that was, and always will be, true about 2023's roster.

I think when (and for God's sake hopefully it happens) the Twins are healthy enough to return most of their IL players, they will have to have Buxton play CF. If most of Kirilloff, Polanco, Lewis, Gallo, Kepler, Farmer, and Correa return, I would think they would have to move Buxton back to the outfield and Michael A. Taylor to the fourth outfielder spot. Unless they wanted to play Gallo or Kepler in CF, but I do maintain hope that Buxton will play outfield eventually even with his gut-wrenching base running mishap today. This seems like silly reasoning right now with the injuries stacking up, but one can hope!

I agree with your whole comment and I appreciate your input!!

[Hunter McCall]

2 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Good article. Sure, the performance, and health, of our outfielders will be a big key to a winning season, but the headline of the article made me wonder. I would say that the key to a winning/playoff-bound season will hinge more on the performance of the pitching staff, particularly the starters. If even 4 of our main 5 starters can stay healthy and  pitch as well as they have the first 2 weeks of the season we'll be in very good shape. 

Great point and another great story line to follow! Thinking back to last year's nightmare that was the rotation, injuries destroyed the entire unit. They all experienced injuries that led to time on the IL and forced starts in meaningful from guys like Aaron Sanchez, Josh Winder (who I think is a good player but was thrown to the wolves a bit soon), Louie Varland (same story as Winder), Devin Smeltzer, and more. Not to mention the continued use of Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy.

This year's rotation is fascinating because coming into the season, on paper, none of them were considered "aces" (although Pablo Lopez is looking quite ace esque at the moment). Despite that, every one of them gives the Twins a realistic opportunity to win every night. I remember dreading the bottom of the rotation last year because I knew the Twins would have to score 8 runs to win and the bullpen would get abused.

On top of the talent, the depth is also impressive. As I mentioned, the top five have dealt with their injuries, which is why the depth is so important. Bailey Ober has to be the best 6th arm in the entire league, but can't find a spot until someone goes on the IL. What a great problem to have! The guy who was supposed to be your 3rd best starter last year has to start the year in AAA!? On top of Ober, SWR, Varland, and Winder are all a year older, and there's hope that Chris Paddack eventually returns to help the 2023 Twins out as well.

I kind of got on a rambling tangent there, but you're right! The outfield bounce backs are a great story to follow, but this team will go as far as their starting pitching (and for that matter bullpen) will take them. Thank you for your comment! It allowed me to get excited and type a bunch for no reason! 

[John Belinski]

I think Kepler either has to start hitting or he has to be replaced. He had a poor year last year and is off to a slow start this year before the injury. All teams need good hitting from their outfielders and over the years the Twins have had a lot of good hitting outfielders. For the Twins to have a winning record they need outfielders who can hit. Things really seemed to have changed for the Twins who once had too many good hitting outfielders and now have no outfielders who can hit.

[mickster]

On 4/12/2023 at 10:27 AM, bloomwcjkl said:

Kepler looks washed. Not the start he needed.

The Gallo intercostal/oblique type injury is not good. Those can linger and linger.

Age and cold weather is not a good mix.

Exited to see Julien. Larnach looks legit. I hope Wallner can prove the same. Youth movement.

Hoping it was 1st game jitters with Julien, but his D at second was not good - needs to look at RF

[RpR]

4 hours ago, John Belinski said:

I think Kepler either has to start hitting or he has to be replaced. He had a poor year last year and is off to a slow start this year before the injury. All teams need good hitting from their outfielders and over the years the Twins have had a lot of good hitting outfielders. For the Twins to have a winning record they need outfielders who can hit. Things really seemed to have changed for the Twins who once had too many good hitting outfielders and now have no outfielders who can hit.

Replaced by what?

A rookie who is a mediocre fielder and then shows his bat is no better?

[Hunter McCall]

5 hours ago, John Belinski said:

I think Kepler either has to start hitting or he has to be replaced. He had a poor year last year and is off to a slow start this year before the injury. All teams need good hitting from their outfielders and over the years the Twins have had a lot of good hitting outfielders. For the Twins to have a winning record they need outfielders who can hit. Things really seemed to have changed for the Twins who once had too many good hitting outfielders and now have no outfielders who can hit.

This is a legit possibility, especially if the Twins get healthy. Kepler provides great defense, but if Gallo, Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, and Buxton are all healthy and Kepler isn't hitting, I could see him losing playing time. The hopeful solution is that he returns and hits and life is fine and dandy, but it's worth keeping an eye on!

[Hunter McCall]

42 minutes ago, RpR said:

Replaced by what?

A rookie who is a mediocre fielder and then shows his bat is no better?

It's very unlikely he gets replaced, the only way it happens in my opinion is if everyone gets healthy and Royce Lewis needs somewhere to play and Kepler is hitting below .200. I still like Kepler and hope he comes back and hits!

[Hunter McCall]

1 hour ago, mickster said:

Hoping it was 1st game jitters with Julien, but his D at second was not good - needs to look at RF

I think it's probably too early for Julien, but the profile hasn't been great defensively. He is going to hit in the majors, but he needs to find a defensive home for sure.

[DocBauer]

Yes, the Twins need production from the OF and there is plenty of hope and ability there. And I'm pretty optimistic. 

Larnach just needs to stay healthy. The good news? Neither of the injuries he suffered in his first 2yrs were related or appear chronic. 

Buxton also needs to be as healthy as possible. Nothing new there. Despite being well conditioned and a great athlete, he's had a series of leg injuries. I don't believe for a moment he's DONE in CF, but I'm 100% OK with more time at DH to just save on his legs. While he bring great value defensively, the Twins have a tremendous substitute for him there. And Buxton's bat is special, so I'm OK if he loses overall WAR by playing less CF in order to keep his bat in the lineup. Unfortunately, I could see a Molitor-esque move in the future to more of a full time DH role. But I don't think it's time yet.

Considering past production, still under 30, great as recently as 2021, I had real hope Gallo would turn it around with this fresh start. So far so good. Hopefully his muscle issue is mild. At least it's not an oblique, which can linger.

I just don't know what to expect from Kepler. At some point, all the nice looking metrics and "unlucky" BABIP is just reality and I don't have hope of a renaissance from him. ANY improvement, with his defense, makes him a viable lower order bat. I just don't have a lot of belief at this point, and that makes me sad.

I have hope Gordon is going to get going soon. And he could be really helpful as a regular contributor. He's looked better the past couple of games.

I have no illusions of Wallner being another Gallo defensively. But he moves very well for a big man, surprisingly, and has a cannon for an arm. Like Gallo, he takes walks and has great power. The continuous improvement he's shown the past couple of years tells me he might be a better HITTER than Gallo, similar power, decent OB, and just needs to be OK defensively to warrant a spot. But right now he's behind the others, and still needing to prove himself. I hope continued development and opportunity will see that happen as Gallo is probably 1 and done, and we don't know if Kepler will be back either. 

Yes, I do think Lewis might help the OF as well. So might Martin at some point.

[Hunter McCall]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Yes, the Twins need production from the OF and there is plenty of hope and ability there. And I'm pretty optimistic. 

Larnach just needs to stay healthy. The good news? Neither of the injuries he suffered in his first 2yrs were related or appear chronic. 

Buxton also needs to be as healthy as possible. Nothing new there. Despite being well conditioned and a great athlete, he's had a series of leg injuries. I don't believe for a moment he's DONE in CF, but I'm 100% OK with more time at DH to just save on his legs. While he bring great value defensively, the Twins have a tremendous substitute for him there. And Buxton's bat is special, so I'm OK if he loses overall WAR by playing less CF in order to keep his bat in the lineup. Unfortunately, I could see a Molitor-esque move in the future to more of a full time DH role. But I don't think it's time yet.

Considering past production, still under 30, great as recently as 2021, I had real hope Gallo would turn it around with this fresh start. So far so good. Hopefully his muscle issue is mild. At least it's not an oblique, which can linger.

I just don't know what to expect from Kepler. At some point, all the nice looking metrics and "unlucky" BABIP is just reality and I don't have hope of a renaissance from him. ANY improvement, with his defense, makes him a viable lower order bat. I just don't have a lot of belief at this point, and that makes me sad.

I have hope Gordon is going to get going soon. And he could be really helpful as a regular contributor. He's looked better the past couple of games.

I have no illusions of Wallner being another Gallo defensively. But he moves very well for a big man, surprisingly, and has a cannon for an arm. Like Gallo, he takes walks and has great power. The continuous improvement he's shown the past couple of years tells me he might be a better HITTER than Gallo, similar power, decent OB, and just needs to be OK defensively to warrant a spot. But right now he's behind the others, and still needing to prove himself. I hope continued development and opportunity will see that happen as Gallo is probably 1 and done, and we don't know if Kepler will be back either. 

Yes, I do think Lewis might help the OF as well. So might Martin at some point.

DocBauer, I always appreciate your comments! I love you're positivity and view of the Twins, as it is always very similar to mine! I love reading your thoughts on the topics that I bring up! You rock man!

As I kind of already eluded to, I agree with almost everything you said! I too think Wallner will be a good player with the Twins and there's a good shot a spot opens up next season (assuming the Twins don't resign Gallo). Thank you again for your comment!