Maybe Max Kepler Needs to Strike Out More?

[Ted Wiedmann]

It seems like the same old story for Max Kepler, but maybe he can learn something from his new teammate Joey Gallo. 

Image courtesy of Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

While certainly not lacking in controversy, Rocco Baldelli has opted to double down on Max Kepler as the Twins' leadoff hitter, at least in the short term. Against the wishes of many (including myself), Kepler has found himself in the top spot in the order every game so far this year. Very early returns suggest the Twins got this one wrong, but there could be some adjustments for the German-born lefty that may yield results this season. 

I'm no MLB hitting coach, but I believe Max Kepler is far too aggressive at the plate. Per Baseball Reference, in 2022, he ranked far below the league average at 3.71 pitches per plate appearance; so far in 2023, that number has increased to 3.86, just under the league average of 3.89. Kepler's first pitch swing% in 2022 was 33.9%, much higher than the league average (29.5%). He should take more pitches in his at-bats, not just because he is the leadoff hitter, but because it will play into his strengths as a hitter more. 

Much of Kepler's appeal comes in peripheral number: his exit max velocities, plate discipline, swing decisions, and raw power. Per Baseball Savant, in 2022, perhaps his worst MLB season since his rookie year, Kepler had a max exit velocity in the 93rd percentile and 115.8 MPH, and borderline elite strikeout and walk rates at 14.3% K% and 11.0% BB%. 

Furthermore, Kepler's chase rate was 4.9% below the league average (28.4%) at 23.5%, and his swing and miss% was 19.9%, compared to a league average of 24.7%. Kepler's zone-contact% was 87.2%, 5.2% higher than the league average. These numbers suggest Kepler has both exceptional bat-to-ball skills and excellent plate discipline. 

Taking more pitches early in the count will allow Kepler to sit in his hot zones and be less prone to swing at pitches he doesn't hit as well. Kepler's max exit velocity shows he has plenty of power to tap into, and even in his non-2019 seasons, he has shown 20-home run ability. 

Despite the impressive max exit velocity, Kepler's hard hit% was only the 49th percentile, and his average exit velocity was the 51st percentile. I believe being more patient and waiting for pitches he is better at hitting will lead to a higher quality of contact for the Twins right fielder. Even if he falls behind in the count more often, as a result, Kepler has both the bat-to-ball skills and the plate discipline to put together a quality at-bat still. 

Of course, taking more pitches would inevitably lead to more strikeouts. Hitting for power requires a tradeoff, and given the last two seasons, Kepler isn't good as a contact hitter. Leaning into a more all-or-nothing approach could be beneficial for him. I think Kepler, the Twins, and Twins fans would trade a few more strikeouts for more production at the plate.

If you have been a supporter of Kepler and have Baseball Savant red dot syndrome, you have been waiting for a Kepler rebound for a few years. The Twins front office and Rocco Baldelli have committed to Kepler in the lineup for better or for worse, and hopefully, some better patience is the key to more success. 

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[Doctor Gast]

You had me going there Ted. I believe your point is to have Kepler not to swing at pitches that isn't in his hot zone, that would otherwise not produce  desirable results. But unfortunately lot of those pitches that are not in his hot zone are strikes, which would produce SOs. Good hitters would not let them go by but would intentionally foul them off, while waiting for their pitch. Personally SOs drives me up the wall.

[Ted Wiedmann]

5 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You had me going there Ted. I believe your point is to have Kepler not to swing at pitches that isn't in his hot zone, that would otherwise not produce  desirable results. But unfortunately lot of those pitches that are not in his hot zone are strikes, which would produce SOs. Good hitters would not let them go by but would intentionally foul them off, while waiting for their pitch. Personally SOs drives me up the wall.

I'm not saying his K% needs to jump to 30%, but maybe from 14% to 18-20%. Overall Kepler needs to improve the consistency of his quality of contact, it's one of those things where his ability to put the ball in play is hurting him sometimes. He has tremendous raw power and he needs to find a way to take advantage of it more than he does. 

[Twodogs]

Lead off hitters typically only lead off once a game.  I know it's possible to lead off again later in the game but usually it's only once or maybe twice.  I wonder how many pitches Max sees in his first at bat every game?  I wonder if his approach changes depending on when he is due up?  I'm not good at looking up peripheral stats like that, but I was just curious if he takes more pitches in his first at bat every game?

[Ted Wiedmann]

8 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

Lead off hitters typically only lead off once a game.  I know it's possible to lead off again later in the game but usually it's only once or maybe twice.  I wonder how many pitches Max sees in his first at bat every game?  I wonder if his approach changes depending on when he is due up?  I'm not good at looking up peripheral stats like that, but I was just curious if he takes more pitches in his first at bat every game?

That's an interesting question, I'm having a hard time finding data on that but my hunch would be that it probably doesn't change much situationally. His pitches per Plate appearance is slightly higher this year than last so maybe, but we don't have the sample to confirm anything yet. 

[nicksaviking]

I'm up for trying anything, but I think with Kepler, he'd have to overhaul his entire swing to get new results. His high exit velocity numbers are somehow buoyed by his ground balls:

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_tend.php?player=596146&gFilt=&&time=year&minmax=ci&var=hitspeed&s_type=13&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/06/2023

Additionally, his heat zones show he hits a high number of ground balls no matter where in the zone the ball is thrown. Somehow, even pitches at the top of the zone and ABOVE the zone he's turning into groundballs 25%+ of the time. Pitches sitting right in the middle of the plate he's still driving into the ground 30-40% of the time.

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=596146&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=gb&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/06/2023&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

By comparison here's Joey Gallo's:

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=608336&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=gb&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/06/2023&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

Certainly laying off pitches below the zone will result in fewer groundballs, but Max hits too many balls on the ground no matter where in the zone they are thrown.

[Ted Wiedmann]

7 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm up for trying anything, but I think with Kepler, he'd have to overhaul his entire swing to get new results. His high exit velocity numbers are somehow buoyed by his ground balls:

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_tend.php?player=596146&gFilt=&&time=year&minmax=ci&var=hitspeed&s_type=13&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/06/2023

Additionally, his heat zones show he hits a high number of ground balls no matter where in the zone the ball is thrown. Somehow, even pitches at the top of the zone and ABOVE the zone he's turning into groundballs 25%+ of the time. Pitches sitting right in the middle of the plate he's still driving into the ground 30-40% of the time.

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=596146&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=gb&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/06/2023&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

By comparison here's Joey Gallo's:

https://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_profile.php?player=608336&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=month&minmax=ci&var=gb&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/06/2023&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1

Certainly laying off pitches below the zone will result in fewer groundballs, but Max hits too many balls on the ground no matter where in the zone they are thrown.

That's a really good point, and you're probably right that a swing overhaul is needed. His flyball% has been trending down since 2019, as well as his pull%. I'm not sure if he adjusted his swing to pull fewer balls in the air or if the holes in his swing are being exploited, but the data you're showing is pointing towards a swing adjustment. Still, hard ground balls are still better than soft groundballs. We'll see if Popkins can fix him. 

[Minny505]

This is really well written and insightful. It's an angle that makes since that I have never heard.

Basically, he should take more strikes in the zone until he has 2 on him, and only swing at those first 2 strikes if they are in his groove zone, not just the strike zone.

It's a tried and true method. Ted Williams talks about it in his hitting book. Until you have 2 strikes, you should only swing at strikes that you can handle, while letting strikes that are "pitcher's strikes" go by.

I have to believe Max is doing this. Most pros do. Only players with insane bat to ball skills swing at anything on the zone. 

Your data, however, could mean he is not selective enough with less than two strikes. 

[Wizard11]

Ted, Max has not led off every game this year or even in fact played in every game this year.  

[Fire Dan Gladden]

2 hours ago, Twodogs said:

Lead off hitters typically only lead off once a game.  I know it's possible to lead off again later in the game but usually it's only once or maybe twice.  I wonder how many pitches Max sees in his first at bat every game?  I wonder if his approach changes depending on when he is due up?  I'm not good at looking up peripheral stats like that, but I was just curious if he takes more pitches in his first at bat every game?

IMO, this isn't the question to be asking.  Generally speaking, you lose about 20 AB during the season for every slot in the order.  Meaning the #1 spot in the lineup will get 20 more AB than #2. #2 will get 20 more AB than #3 and so on.  Does Kepler profile as the best person for that role?

I don't think Kepler is a good fit for that slot even in the best of years,  Part of the discussion with Gallo potentially batting leadoff is the OBP, being on base for the hitters behind him.  Kepler does not do that.  I think if Kepler was able to be more patient, we would have seen movement in that direction already as he matured.  That being said, we can always hope

Personally I think the top our lineup should go something like:
1) Buxton
2) Polanco/Miranda
3) Correa

After that it there is not much setting one apart from the other.  They each have positives and negatives.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Minny505 said:

This is really well written and insightful. It's an angle that makes since that I have never heard.

Basically, he should take more strikes in the zone until he has 2 on him, and only swing at those first 2 strikes if they are in his groove zone, not just the strike zone.

It's a tried and true method. Ted Williams talks about it in his hitting book. Until you have 2 strikes, you should only swing at strikes that you can handle, while letting strikes that are "pitcher's strikes" go by.

I have to believe Max is doing this. Most pros do. Only players with insane bat to ball skills swing at anything on the zone. 

Your data, however, could mean he is not selective enough with less than two strikes. 

The thing about this is that Ted Williams was an otherworldly hitter. He had an outstanding eye to recognize not only whether a pitch was a strike but what the pitch would do. And he was the rare player who did have insane bat-to-ball skills. Because of this he was able to take strikes early in the count with little to no worry. Mere mortals, however, have to swing at pitcher's pitches more frequently, hoping the ball happens to hit the bat.

[Major League Ready]

They need Polanco back.  Then, they can go Buxton / Polanco / Correa / Larnach / Miranda.  Hopefully, Kirilloff comes back strong and adds more depth.  It wouldn't hurt if Julien went nuts for the next 6 weeks and forced himself on this team.  That would Kepler in the bottom third or even 9th when Buxton is in CF.   

[rv78]

The first game of the season against KC he swung at the first pitch and hit a lazy fly ball to CF. I said to myself, that's exactly what you DON'T want your leadoff hitter to do. 

Comparing anyone especially Kepler to how Ted Williams hit is like asking someone to be a rocket scientist or brain surgeon when all he is good at is cleaning out horse stables. Really?

Generally speaking, some guys can't be fixed. Kepler has never been much of a hitter for average. His entire career is .232. Take away the juiced ball in 2019 and it drops to .227. Maybe everyone should quit trying to make him into something he isn't!

[Woof Bronzer]

Gotta admit, I believe this is the first piece I've ever read that advocates for a hitter to strike out more.  What planet did I land on this morning :)

[Blyleven2011]

To help the team ,  Kepler needs to produce more hits pure and simple  in clutch hitting anywhere in the lineup ...

As a leadoff hitter he needs to be patient , draw walks and get on base any way  ,  ....

The wrap ,                                         As a hitter he sucks with his approach and he is not a leadoff or a #4 hitter in the batting order   ,

as an outfielder I love his defense .... 

I hate the strikeouts and some of these players should be adjusting to the  pitching  after years of experience  and cut down on the strikeouts  , go ask Correa  , his Houston  teams led the seasons in strikeouts multiple time and as they matured the Houston teams have struck out the least ...

Strikeouts don't mean anything is what I hear alot ,,, I say bull , it's an out and unproductive at bat , if the players are going to strike out , why not let them bunt  ...

The wrap ,                                              rant on strikeouts over ...

[Jocko87]

12 hours ago, rv78 said:

The first game of the season against KC he swung at the first pitch and hit a lazy fly ball to CF. I said to myself, that's exactly what you DON'T want your leadoff hitter to do.

I think the point is that when he swings at that pitch he needs to by trying to murder it instead of hitting it.  The change in approach may not require a swing change as much as a mindset change.  Accept striking out in exchange for when you swing, swing like you mean it.  That will result in more strike outs by nature.

Julien is looking special in that he works the count and takes a lot of walks but when he is thrown a strike he swings with intention to do damage.  Its the basic summary of everything that frustrated me about Joe Mauer.  When you have an opportunity to do damage you only have one swing.  Whack it! 

I like this article in that it is suggesting something that may not have been tried.  Its worth a try at this point.

[rv78]

6 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I think the point is that when he swings at that pitch he needs to by trying to murder it instead of hitting it.  The change in approach may not require a swing change as much as a mindset change.  Accept striking out in exchange for when you swing, swing like you mean it.  That will result in more strike outs by nature.

Julien is looking special in that he works the count and takes a lot of walks but when he is thrown a strike he swings with intention to do damage.  Its the basic summary of everything that frustrated me about Joe Mauer.  When you have an opportunity to do damage you only have one swing.  Whack it! 

I like this article in that it is suggesting something that may not have been tried.  Its worth a try at this point.

I think the exact opposite of what you just said is the problem. Most every time Kepler swings he does try to murder it and his swings are too hard. Much like Sano was. You can't be a good hitter if your only instinct is to swing with all of your might and pull it every time. Good hitters use the whole field, slap the ball the other way. When was the last time you saw Kepler take something off his swing and hit singles to LF? Only by accident when he is fooled and is late with his swing, not making good contact, does his ball end up on the left side of the field somewhere. Last year with the shift, if he would have known how to bunt he could have pushed the ball towards 3B and walked to first everytime he came up to bat, but failure to adjust and not take what the defense is giving you led to a worthless season. Who's fault is it that he struggles? His own. The organizations by not teaching players how and when to bunt. The managers by not using the bunt, especially last year when it was obvious you could have easily made it to first base. I've heard it said too many times..... He's a pull hitter so you don't want to take that part of his game away from him, he'll lose his aggressiveness. So instead, let's let them be mediocre at what they do. His approach at the plate hasn't changed since 2019 when the juiced ball made him better than he actually is. The mindset that he needs to change is... to hit to all fields. Don't try to hit a HR every time. If you want to become a good hitter and improve your average and worth to your team the last thing you need is to be a free swinging all or nothing hitter. The Bomba Squad did nothing in the playoffs. It's time to give up on the dream that HR hitters will win you Championships. You need players that can hit for average, get on base, manufacture runs, and hit the occasional HR. "Complete" hitters, not one dimensional hitters.

[Ted Wiedmann]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

I think the exact opposite of what you just said is the problem. Most every time Kepler swings he does try to murder it and his swings are too hard. Much like Sano was. You can't be a good hitter if your only instinct is to swing with all of your might and pull it every time. Good hitters use the whole field, slap the ball the other way. When was the last time you saw Kepler take something off his swing and hit singles to LF? Only by accident when he is fooled and is late with his swing, not making good contact, does his ball end up on the left side of the field somewhere. Last year with the shift, if he would have known how to bunt he could have pushed the ball towards 3B and walked to first everytime he came up to bat, but failure to adjust and not take what the defense is giving you led to a worthless season. Who's fault is it that he struggles? His own. The organizations by not teaching players how and when to bunt. The managers by not using the bunt, especially last year when it was obvious you could have easily made it to first base. I've heard it said too many times..... He's a pull hitter so you don't want to take that part of his game away from him, he'll lose his aggressiveness. So instead, let's let them be mediocre at what they do. His approach at the plate hasn't changed since 2019 when the juiced ball made him better than he actually is. The mindset that he needs to change is... to hit to all fields. Don't try to hit a HR every time. If you want to become a good hitter and improve your average and worth to your team the last thing you need is to be a free swinging all or nothing hitter. The Bomba Squad did nothing in the playoffs. It's time to give up on the dream that HR hitters will win you Championships. You need players that can hit for average, get on base, manufacture runs, and hit the occasional HR. "Complete" hitters, not one dimensional hitters.

In 2022, Kepler had his lowest Pull% since 2017 and his highest opposite field% ever. His flyball% was his lowest since 2017 and his ground ball% was his highest since 2016. He did change his approach to try to hit the other way more, it did not go well for him. 

[Fred]

With Larnach finally healthy (and hitting like we all hoped he would), and CF manned by Buxton and Taylor, Kepler only has until Kiriloff is ready (if it ever happens. Knowing Kirk Gibson had the same procedure give me faith) before he becomes the odd man out. Gallo is a better choice in RF, having actually won a Gold Glove there and posting a career OPS a full 50 points higher than Kepler. I believe Max will soon become someone else's problem.

[Ted Wiedmann]

13 minutes ago, Fred said:

With Larnach finally healthy (and hitting like we all hoped he would), and CF manned by Buxton and Taylor, Kepler only has until Kiriloff is ready (if it ever happens. Knowing Kirk Gibson had the same procedure give me faith) before he becomes the odd man out. Gallo is a better choice in RF, having actually won a Gold Glove there and posting a career OPS a full 50 points higher than Kepler. I believe Max will soon become someone else's problem.

Kepler would be far from a problem on a handful of teams as a platoon/4th outfielder . There are a handful of contending teams that Kepler has a spot on and he's an everyday player for pretty much every bad team. He has his gaps as a player but he's still a 2-2.5 win player that can hit right handed pitching. 

[rv78]

5 hours ago, Ted Wiedmann said:

In 2022, Kepler had his lowest Pull% since 2017 and his highest opposite field% ever. His flyball% was his lowest since 2017 and his ground ball% was his highest since 2016. He did change his approach to try to hit the other way more, it did not go well for him. 

So then we should assume he's just a lousy hitter and leave it at that. I can't see where striking out more like Gallo will make him a better hitter unless you think Gallo's .199 career BA is actually an improvement.

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, rv78 said:

So then we should assume he's just a lousy hitter and leave it at that. I can't see where striking out more like Gallo will make him a better hitter unless you think Gallo's .199 career BA is actually an improvement.

The idea is to raise his batting average when he puts the ball in play.  He's generally around .250 and the league is closer to .300.  If he can trade some of the useless balls in play into base hits, at some cost in strikeouts, then it's a net improvement.  Also, home runs don't count as being "in play" for defensive purposes, so getting the HR back up would be a good thing even if the BABIP stays .250.