Report from The Fort: Southpaw Sufferers No More?

[John Bonnes]

FORT MYERS - The Twins' lineup has been brutal versus left-handed pitching for the last three years. Here's how that should change.

Image courtesy of Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

In 2020, as we impatiently waited for the shortened season to start, we knew one thing about the Twins: they would crush left-handed pitchers. Any southpaw that had to negotiate a lineup filled with right-handed power like Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Mitch Garver, and new addition Josh Donaldson would need to pack a lunch. We had seen it the year before, when the Twins as a team had posted an 872 OPS versus left-handers, the best mark in MLB.

Then this happened:

YEAR	OPS	RANK
2019	872	1
2020	658	27
2021	725	22
2022	701	20

Not only did they slide from first to 27th in 2020, but even when we got back to playing full seasons of baseball, they continued to languish in the lower third of the league.

There have been two problems, one weird and one common. The weird first problem is that Twins’ right-hander batters didn’t crush left-handers the way we expected. Here are all the right-handed hitting and switch-hitting Twins who had at least 100 plate appearances versus southpaws over the last three years.

Player	OPS▼
Nelson Cruz	1.142
Carlos Correa	0.945
Byron Buxton	0.927
Josh Donaldson	0.912
Kyle Garlick	0.837
Jose Miranda	0.821
Ryan Jeffers	0.794
Gio Urshela	0.775
Mitch Garver	0.754
Jorge Polanco	0.734
Andrelton Simmons	0.635
Miguel Sanó	0.630
Gary Sanchez	0.554
Gilberto Celestino	0.533

Some of those names I mentioned earlier continued to mash, but Garver was suddenly human, and Sano batted like he went up their hitting left-handed. Even Gary Sanchez had problems with what should have been his bread and butter.

I’ve also highlighted the players that are still with the organization this year. The only regular that isn’t in the top half of that list is Jorge Polanco, who is a switch-hitter, but hitting left-handed is his strong side of the plate. That could make him a candidate to sit versus left-handers, though there is no indication that is coming soon. Which brings us to the second problem.

Most teams face the second problem: their left-handed batters just don’t hit left-handed pitchers very well. This is easily illustrated by taking a look at the two most potent left-handed bats in the lineup from 2020 through 2022, Luis Arraez and Max Kepler. Arraez, who was the AL Batting Champion last year, has hit just .256 versus left-handers over the last three years. Read that last sentence again.

That's a stark discrepancy, but Kepler has been quite a bit worse. 420 MLB players have had at least 100 plate appearances versus left-handed pitchers over the last three years. Kepler’s 552 OPS (not a typo) ranks him 385th on that list. Yet the Twins have invested 301 plate appearances in that futility.

It doesn’t look like they’ll be doing so this year, or at least not as often, because one of the themes of the offseason was gathering veteran right-handed bench bats. The offseason started with them trading for Kyle Farmer, and the offensive skill on which he has built his career is hitting left-handers hard. Over the last three years he has posted a 880 OPS against southpaws.

The last move they made was signing infielder Donovan Solano to one-year deal. Solano has hit .313 versus left-handers over the last three years, posting a 815 OPS.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like either of those guys will play much in a corner outfield spot, and that’s where Kepler and left-handed hitting Joey Gallo play. Gallo has posted just a 664 OPS versus left-handers the last three years. That’s better than Kepler, but still provides an opportunity for an upgrade.

Enter Michael A. Taylor , who the Twins acquired from the Royals late this offseason. Taylor is known more for his defense than his offense (career OPS of 677), but he has continued to do damage versus left-handers over the last three years, posting a 722 OPS.

With their revamped bench, the Twins can trot out guys who can swing from the right side of the plate in eight of their nine spots in the lineup – and still have one extra guy on the bench. Plus they will likely have right-handed outfield thumper Kyle Garlick stowed away in AAA-St Paul in case of an emergency.

The Twins haven’s said publicly that fortifying their lineup versus left-handed pitching was a priority this offseason, so maybe this wasn’t purposeful; maybe it was just fortunate. Whatever. Manager Rocco Baldelli appears to have the chess pieces to respond when a southpaw is on the mound, either as a reliever or a starter. Soon we’ll see if all that preparation fixes the three-year-old problem.

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[Doctor Gast]

I was thinking that also that Polanco could be given a break against LHPs. At the same time get an upgrade on offense. I'm hoping that Martin's elbow will be 100% so he would be available to be a RH bat in the OF. While Lewis will make Solano obsolete when he comes back.

Go Twins! Can't wait until 3/30

[tarheeltwinsfan]

When a lefty pitches put Gallo in left, Buck in center and Taylor in right and we will have the top 3 total "defensive runs saved" outfielders since 2020. These three, playing together, may even catch the rain.

[JD-TWINS]

Not sure it matters but my assumption for Buxton is to DH when they are facing LH pitching…..clearly he needs to DH around 50 games & Taylor hits LH well so my thought was he’d be in CF for 25% of the starts - 40 games.

Line-up v. LH pitcher:

Taylor - CF

Buxton - DH

Correa - SS

Miranda - 1B

Farmer - 3B

Gallo - RF

Jeffers - C

Solano - 2B

Larnach - LF (maybe Garlick if rostered)

No offensive superstars here but they have good splits v. LH pitching & should be effective v. LH arms

[ashbury]

MAT may bat right-handed, but.722 OPS is mighty pedestrian.

[Minny505]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure it matters but my assumption for Buxton is to DH when they are facing LH pitching…..clearly he needs to DH around 50 games & Taylor hits LH well so my thought was he’d be in CF for 25% of the starts - 40 games.

Line-up v. LH pitcher:

Taylor - CF

Buxton - DH

Correa - SS

Miranda - 1B

Farmer - 3B

Gallo - RF

Jeffers - C

Solano - 2B

Larnach - LF (maybe Garlick if rostered)

No offensive superstars here but they have good splits v. LH pitching & should be effective v. LH arms

Your idea here makes sense, but it seems your overthinking it a bit. 

Polanco probably plays while Solano stays at 1B and Miranda at 3B, with Farmer playing LF.

When Polandco is out vs LHP, Farmer just comes in to play 2B instead. Less movement and likely maximizes defense.

[Tyler from Oregon]

I'll never get over how dominant the Twins were against lefties in 2019. I just assumed at that point that this team was going to destroy all lefty pitching forever. Glad to see that they are well positioned to at least be better than they have been the last few years.

[Shaitan]

Did anybody sign Sanchez?

[Althebum82]

On 3/16/2023 at 6:45 PM, Shaitan said:

Did anybody sign Sanchez?

He remains unsigned.  Most likely he is holding out for former all-star pay which the Twins (and probably most teams) do not consider a fair value any longer.  The Yankees, who could most probably afford that asking price AND are in need of the skills he can still add to a team, have no stomach for further enduring his decline.  

He certainly did not wow any one in his two WBC appearances going 0 for 5 with three strikeouts and a walk.

The Twins made it a point to have enough sufficient starting caliber and career backup catchers signed that Sanchez will not be in one of their new uniforms.

[Fatbat]

Great article! I have often wondered why this hasn’t been addressed sooner. 

[Major League Ready]

Hopefully Vazquez hits LHP like he did last year.  That's not always been the case but last year his wRC+ against lefties was 130.  Sanchez was brutal against LHP last year so there is the potential for a big gain at the catcher position. 

The combination of Solano 1B/Farmer 2B /Miranda 3B /Correa ss should be really good against LHP.  Taylor's wRC+ against L:HP is 92.  While he's not an offensive solution, the combination of Buxton/Taylor and either Gallo or Kepler in the OF will make up for his modest offensive production.  

[Althebum82]

On 3/19/2023 at 5:10 AM, Althebum82 said:

He remains unsigned.  Most likely he is holding out for former all-star pay which the Twins (and probably most teams) do not consider a fair value any longer.  The Yankees, who could most probably afford that asking price AND are in need of the skills he can still add to a team, have no stomach for further enduring his decline.  

He certainly did not wow any one in his two WBC appearances going 0 for 5 with three strikeouts and a walk.

The Twins made it a point to have enough sufficient starting caliber and career backup catchers signed that Sanchez will not be in one of their new uniforms.

Update: This changed April 1 when he signed with a minor league deal with the Giants.