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2023 Rotation


cHawk
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Outside of trades my guess would have Gray, Ryan and Ober as locks. Mahle would be, but I'm not overly optimistic he'll be healthy. Pattern on these recurring mystery pitching injuries (at least when the Twins are concerned) seem to usually end up with surgery. Hope that hunch is wrong. Maeda, if healthy, will probably be given a shot. Probably Winder. Hard to say when Paddack will be back, not right away anyways. Varland and SWR as depth to start the year. If everyone is miraculously healthy starting the year with Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda and Ober or Winder. Would keep them in most games, but as others have pointed out these guys are mostly 3-4's. Slightly more worried about the lineup at this point, likely without Correa, Buxton's health, Kirilloff's health. 

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22 hours ago, Trov said:

You can talk about a 5 man rotation, but really you need 7 or 8 guys to count on through the season.  The guys that have options, despite being ready will most likely spend plenty of time in AAA while the others will start the year in the rotation.  As injuries arise the AAA guys will come up as needed.  What we went through like 10 starters this year minimum?  

I doubt they go out and spend big on any starter, unless there is a 1 or 2 year deal on a top guy available.  I also doubt they trade for a starter, unless they are sending a starter away as well, as they do have plenty of possible depth.  Are any top end guys, not compared to the likes of verlander, but they are more like good mid-rotation guys.  I guess part of question is would you rather have good depth, or more high end?  Personally, I would like more depth that can hopefully get you about 6 good innings, but if you lose the top guy and have no one to fill in then you are in even more trouble. 

13 unique starters used his year. 

16 the year before that. 

You are right to look past the skin deep 5. 

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28 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

13 unique starters used his year. 

16 the year before that. 

You are right to look past the skin deep 5. 

Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Winder, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Henriquez, Sands, Smeltzer,

They have 13 currently on the 40 or IL and Paddack coming back at some point.  I am not sure if there are other starters that need to be added, but at some point if they add more they have to subtract some as well and the only one I see right now is Sands unless they think Smeltzer can be dropped and resigned.

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3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Winder, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Henriquez, Sands, Smeltzer,

They have 13 currently on the 40 or IL and Paddack coming back at some point.  I am not sure if there are other starters that need to be added, but at some point if they add more they have to subtract some as well and the only one I see right now is Sands unless they think Smeltzer can be dropped and resigned.

Plus Canterino. 

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15 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Winder, Varland, SWR, Balazovic, Enlow, Henriquez, Sands, Smeltzer,

12 of 13 are RH. I don't trust Smeltzer as he has had a terrible 2nd half of the year. Therefore, I think we have to add the next best LH in the system to the 40 man so we won't lose him in the Rule 5 draft and that would be Headrick. Not sure he will be ready for the majors until the end of next year, if that, though.

Balazovic and Sands are going to be real question marks as to keeping them on the 40 man. Enlow and Henriquez could be as well but they have done better in the 2nd half.

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9 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

12 of 13 are RH. I don't trust Smeltzer as he has had a terrible 2nd half of the year. Therefore, I think we have to add the next best LH in the system to the 40 man so we won't lose him in the Rule 5 draft and that would be Headrick. Not sure he will be ready for the majors until the end of next year, if that, though.

Balazovic and Sands are going to be real question marks as to keeping them on the 40 man. Enlow and Henriquez could be as well but they have done better in the 2nd half.

In the majors Smeltzer really only had two bad games, the 6 ER he gave up in 4 1/3 on 6/26 and the 7 he gave up in 3 1/3 on July 9th. Since that game he has went 10 2/3 and gave up 3 runs. He has 6 quality starts in 12 starts. Bundy has 2 in 27, Archer 0 in 25, and Ober 1 in 9 starts. 

With that said I don't think he should be anything more than a plan B or C for a Twins starter. IMO I don't think Enlow deserves to be on the 40 other than he was a 3rd round pick back in 17, He is already 23 and hasn't done much of anything in the minors to this point. Henriquez doesn't do a lot for me but he is a young 22 and can strike out guys, which translates into a really good bullpen arm iMO. I have never been on a Sands fan ( I do wish him well) but I don't see a need for him to be on the 40 if there is a need for somebody else.

I don't know much about Headrick other then he will be 25 in December which translates to relief pitcher, so I don't see a need to protect a 25 year old relief pitcher. I do like that he has been healthy enough to pitch over 100 innings.

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16 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Maeda had 11 starts in 2000 that would qualify, other than that has never shown he is anywhere near a number 2 starter. He has pitched 6 seasons (135 career starts) in the majors and has a career WAR of 7.4. And since his rookie season has innings of 134.33, 125.33, 153.66, 66.66, 106.33.

People seem to forget his 21 season, where he was a 5 inning pitchers with an ERA of 4.66.

His UCL was hanging on by a few threads at that point. 

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The way Baldelli uses a pitching staff there should be no rotation as such. Just have the entire 10-12 man staff take turns on who pitches the first inning. This team needs a total rebuild and should concentrate solely on run production and a position player lineup that can at least be half way reliable. There is not a single position in the entire lineup that is a player that would be substituted by another team for who they already have and that includes Correa who is being paid like a superstar and performs like a merely better than average player. Thanks Failvine.

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57 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

OK, does that explain 17, 18 19?

 

Explain what about them? He was an upper 3s, lower 4s ERA pitcher those years. That's a solid #3 pitcher who's shown the ability to be better than that for stretches. He was moved to the pen late in the year because the Dodgers had too many starters for their postseason rotation and they wanted Kenta to be a go to pen arm during the postseason. Strategy seemed to work as he has 37.2 postseason innings with an ERA of 2.87.

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28 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Explain what about them? He was an upper 3s, lower 4s ERA pitcher those years. That's a solid #3 pitcher who's shown the ability to be better than that for stretches. He was moved to the pen late in the year because the Dodgers had too many starters for their postseason rotation and they wanted Kenta to be a go to pen arm during the postseason. Strategy seemed to work as he has 37.2 postseason innings with an ERA of 2.87.

This started with baok0010 stating this  - "Maeda is a solid number 2 who pitches like a 1 somedays. '

I pointed out that besides 11 starts in 2020 that has never been the case and also said People seem to forget his 21 season, where he was a 5 inning pitchers with an ERA of 4.66.

wabene came back with - "His UCL was hanging on by a few threads at that point."

My response was  "OK, does that explain 17, 18 19? "

So you are either saying he is a solid number 2 who also pitches like a 1. (Which the stats and data you put out doesn't back that up at all and claim he is a solid #3) or you missed how this started out. I will assume the second one?

People make ridiculous claims like this all the time without backing it up with data. (Not you! but I like to point out the flaws in statements like this because others grab onto them and say them as true) One could argue he barely pitched like a 2 in 2020 let alone a 1, but that didn't seem like a discussion worth having.

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IMHO, starting rotation has two for sure bets--Ryan and Gray.  I don't think they will trade Gray at least until the deadline next year if they are out of it.  Mahle will be a third assuming he is healthy.  I hope they get multiple opinions on his shoulder injury as it could be a precursor to something serious as it bothered him all year.  Paddack is out for next year I think. I would not bring back Archer.  Bundy I would not bring back unless the price is lower than the option amount.  Now it gets dicier.  We have not seen enough of Ober long term, but I think he has done enough to earn a shot.  Maeda I suspect they will bring along slowly but he has earned a shot as well.  But, will he be the pitcher he was?  Beyond these five, I think we have a bunch of unproven talents--Winder, Varland, and SWR.  Unproven doesn't mean lacking talent, but just that they have not earned their spurs in the bigs, so I am not sure any of them will start the year at Target Field. Balazovic will need to straighten himself out a bit, so won't be on the radar until at least mid year I think.  Smeltzer is strange--he looks great sometimes but he seems inconsistent.  Now it may be he was upset for being demoted when he was at St. Paul, but boy in the games I watched, he was not impressive.  Sands I am not as high on as some--I hope I am wrong.  Henriquez has the stuff, but will need some more time at St. Paul I think.  Given that a team needs at least 9 or 10 available starters, I would do my best to add a legit left handed starter through a trade.  I would keep Smeltzer, Henriquez and Sands at AAA along with Balazovic, and Varland and SWR unless the latter two win a spot in spring training.  I would start the year with Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda and a left hander from a trade, perhaps using Bundy to team with Maeda until he gets stretched out.  Let's hope Varland or SWR are so impressive next spring that one of them starts the year in the rotation.  And most of all, let's pray for health.

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No team has gone deep in the playoffs without an Ace in 25 years.

So watch to see if the Twins pick between Higher Profits or Winning. No Ace = Higher Profits. Correa may wait as long as he can to see if Twins fix pitching. If they don't he is gone because he wants to Win!! What a concept. Twins need to look for better position players. Too many "Hope" they get better players. Lanach can't hit a curveball or play the wall. Celestino is a AAA player at best. Palascios is not a big leaguer. And they need more production from the Catcher position. The league has figured out Jeffers can't hit a cutter. He turned into another Sano swinging at everything low and away. No catcher in the system so this would be an outside player.

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Haven't seen smeltzer's name come up. He's been on for some nice stretches, I'm hoping he can figure out how to maintain that consistently. Especially since he's a lefty.

Btw, l know some posters have said that it really doesn't matter whether a pitcher is right or left handed, but it seems to me that it does matter to some hitters. And I think that if a batting order gets a steady diet of right handers, they get too comfortable.  I think a couple lefty staters keeps them a little off balance.

 

 

 

 

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The rotation should be a wide open race that hopefully includes one player added via trade and another through free agency. Folks above have used all the known names and Falvey can provide the others.

It won't make much difference though if the lineup issues remain. The Twins have struggled to score more than 4 runs for several months. They are pretty much in the middle of most stats except base-running. Playing station to station doesn't work since Manfred took the superball away. At this point in time I am way less concerned about the rotation than the defense and offense and strategy.

So let's just say to respond to the post speculatively ... free agent, trade, Ryan, Varland, and Winder or Ober for the first five.

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Twins 2023 rotation? Well, they have a lot of folks fighting for work in 2023, that's fer sure.

But they are still missing ONE BIG PIECE: An Ace, someone who can give the pen a surefire rest the majority of his starts, and will give up only an average of three runs a start. In other words: A #1 STARTER.

Gray and Ryan should be able to eclipse 150 innings next season. Maybe Mahle can also fill that bill, too. But he's questionable...right now.

Ober and WInder will be what they were this season, a couple of rebuild candidates. They will need to grow towards 100-125 innings. Do they do that starting in St. Paul and encompassing what may be one of the better AAA rotations in baseball? Man, hate to think that the Twins will have a great rotation at AAA, but can it translate, at some point, to the major leagues.

Maeda should be back. But, again, the guy IS NOT a workhorse. So we are back to 2022, where he (and Paddack upon return) are getting regular starts but only pitching twice thru a batting order. Arrgh!

The Twins will have Woods-Richardson, Varland, and Balazovic at AAA St. Paul starting games. So there is promise. But every year there is always promise. These three will be supplemented with names like Henriquez, Sands and maybe Enlow, all three who might be better suited for relief. Henriquez and Sands could blow bigtime in spring training and become the next Griffin Jax, who knows. We also can pretty much say Dobnak will be in the rotation in St. Paul and allowed to stretch out and maybe make an appearance (like the similar salaried Jake Cave did at 2022's year end). Do the Twins keep Smeltzer on the 40-man because he IS a lefty? Would Smeltzer stay with the Twins if removed from the 40-man? The Twins may also add Canterino to the 40-man, a rotation arm who will NOT pitch in 2023 and may also be better suited for the pen. Worth the roster spot? I mean, we already have...Enlow.

So, the Twins could easily go after a longer-term BIG CONTRACT signing of a #1, protect themselves from short starts, and still have a decent backl-up pipeline that mighty consistently fuel a 5th (or 6th) starter, especially at the beginning of the season when you could use (again) someone like Winder as a long-relief arm.

Don't see them getting to the majors, but in the pipeline are Laweryson, Funderburk and minor-league free-agent Gossett (who didn't pitch well at AAA) who would be in AAA by season's end. And behind them advancing from A ball fulltime are names like Headrick, Festa, and maybe Rozek. But none of those six will need a 40-man spot until, the earliest, fall of 2024.

I just don't want to see them continue along the Bundy, Archer, Happ, Shoemaker, Bailey, Pineda, Perez, Odorizzi dumpster dives of season's past. Heck, if you are gonna do that, bring back Charlie Barnes from overseas!

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7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

This started with baok0010 stating this  - "Maeda is a solid number 2 who pitches like a 1 somedays. '

I pointed out that besides 11 starts in 2020 that has never been the case and also said People seem to forget his 21 season, where he was a 5 inning pitchers with an ERA of 4.66.

wabene came back with - "His UCL was hanging on by a few threads at that point."

My response was  "OK, does that explain 17, 18 19? "

So you are either saying he is a solid number 2 who also pitches like a 1. (Which the stats and data you put out doesn't back that up at all and claim he is a solid #3) or you missed how this started out. I will assume the second one?

People make ridiculous claims like this all the time without backing it up with data. (Not you! but I like to point out the flaws in statements like this because others grab onto them and say them as true) One could argue he barely pitched like a 2 in 2020 let alone a 1, but that didn't seem like a discussion worth having.

I didn't state any number rating for Maeda. I mearly stated that by the time the regular season started Maeda's elbow was already going south. He had a fantastic spring training, I thought he was going to a new level then bam, it was over. I believe there were tears in his elbow discovered when he was signing his first MLB contract, that lead to his signing a team friendly incentive based deal.

 

Now this is just my opinion, based purely on speculation, but this repaired elbow may be stronger than his damaged elbow has been in years. I think he is a thinking man's pitcher and in spite of his age he could have a nice little run here.

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I doubt Correa will be back to a team that is in free fall and has no top of the rotation starters, just a stable of often injured number 3-5 starters. That’s not a prescription for making a WS run. If Correa can’t find a long term contract elsewhere he can  find another team that gives him a contract similar to the Twins with opt out clauses. On another subject remind me of why they gave Dobnak a multi year contract. 

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16 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I like it. How about a 12-man rotation? Baldelli might even let someone pitch into the 6th inning on occasion 😉

Only if Rocco’s computer give him the OK. Heaven forbid he uses his instincts and intuition with pitching changes. 

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23 hours ago, Rosterman said:

Twins 2023 rotation? Well, they have a lot of folks fighting for work in 2023, that's fer sure.

But they are still missing ONE BIG PIECE: An Ace, someone who can give the pen a surefire rest the majority of his starts, and will give up only an average of three runs a start. In other words: A #1 STARTER.

Gray and Ryan should be able to eclipse 150 innings next season. Maybe Mahle can also fill that bill, too. But he's questionable...right now.

Ober and WInder will be what they were this season, a couple of rebuild candidates. They will need to grow towards 100-125 innings. Do they do that starting in St. Paul and encompassing what may be one of the better AAA rotations in baseball? Man, hate to think that the Twins will have a great rotation at AAA, but can it translate, at some point, to the major leagues.

Maeda should be back. But, again, the guy IS NOT a workhorse. So we are back to 2022, where he (and Paddack upon return) are getting regular starts but only pitching twice thru a batting order. Arrgh!

The Twins will have Woods-Richardson, Varland, and Balazovic at AAA St. Paul starting games. So there is promise. But every year there is always promise. These three will be supplemented with names like Henriquez, Sands and maybe Enlow, all three who might be better suited for relief. Henriquez and Sands could blow bigtime in spring training and become the next Griffin Jax, who knows. We also can pretty much say Dobnak will be in the rotation in St. Paul and allowed to stretch out and maybe make an appearance (like the similar salaried Jake Cave did at 2022's year end). Do the Twins keep Smeltzer on the 40-man because he IS a lefty? Would Smeltzer stay with the Twins if removed from the 40-man? The Twins may also add Canterino to the 40-man, a rotation arm who will NOT pitch in 2023 and may also be better suited for the pen. Worth the roster spot? I mean, we already have...Enlow.

So, the Twins could easily go after a longer-term BIG CONTRACT signing of a #1, protect themselves from short starts, and still have a decent backl-up pipeline that mighty consistently fuel a 5th (or 6th) starter, especially at the beginning of the season when you could use (again) someone like Winder as a long-relief arm.

Don't see them getting to the majors, but in the pipeline are Laweryson, Funderburk and minor-league free-agent Gossett (who didn't pitch well at AAA) who would be in AAA by season's end. And behind them advancing from A ball fulltime are names like Headrick, Festa, and maybe Rozek. But none of those six will need a 40-man spot until, the earliest, fall of 2024.

I just don't want to see them continue along the Bundy, Archer, Happ, Shoemaker, Bailey, Pineda, Perez, Odorizzi dumpster dives of season's past. Heck, if you are gonna do that, bring back Charlie Barnes from overseas!

Why would a top of the rotation starter sign with the Twins? Rocco doesn’t trust his starters to pitch more than five innings unless they have a big lead, and then six is max. Agree about dumpster diving to fill out the rotation, except Bundy would be an acceptable number five starter, even on a competitive team. He may win tens games this year, not bad for back of the rotation.

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17 minutes ago, SpicyGarvSauce said:

One thing is for sure...the Twins will attempt to heal Mahle with rehab, only to have him go under the knife for surgery in January.

I give him longer than that.  Three starts in spring training, 65 MPH fastballs being explained away as just knocking the rust off, until they run another MRI as a precaution and discover that aliens at some point made away with his rotator cuff.

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