Are Twins Pitchers Spinning Out of Control?

[Cody Christie]

Spin rate is back up across baseball after a crackdown on sticky substances last season. Are Twins pitchers following this trend or falling behind?

Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

 

Over the last year, MLB has tried to crack down on the substances pitchers use on the ball to generate more spin. When first enforced, there were some heated moments, including Josh Donaldson, a Twins player at the time, calling out pitchers he knew were violating the rule. Initially, baseball saw a decline in spin rate, but those numbers have increased this season. Now, spin rates are nearly back to the same level as before enforcement began.

Starting in 2020, Statcast posted an active spin leaderboard, which can also include an active spin %. They offer a longer explanation at their site, but the nuts-and-bolts description is the spin that contributes to movement, including up or down and side to side.

Twins Four-Seam Leaderboard (Active Spin %)
Tyler Mahle (99.5%), Jorge Lopez (98.1%), Joe Ryan (96.5%), Chris Archer (96.5%)
Minnesota’s top-two trade deadline acquisitions rank the best on the team regarding active spin % on their four-seam fastballs. In fact, Mahle sits atop the leaderboard among all MLB pitchers that have thrown a minimum of 1000 pitches. Opponents have posted a .205 BA and a .368 SLG when facing Mahle’s four-seamer. His numbers also include his recent starts, where his shoulder hasn’t allowed him to reach his normal velocity levels. Lopez ranks in the top 25, while Ryan and Archer are in the top 50. 

Twins Changeup Leaderboard (Active Spin %)
Joe Ryan (99.5%), Jorge Lopez (98.3%), Chris Archer (96%), 
Ryan throws his fastball over 60% of the time, but his changeup might be vital to unlocking his full potential. His changeup leads MLB in active spin among pitchers with a minimum of 1000 pitches thrown. Ryan has thrown his changeup fewer than 300 times this season, but he has increased his percentage from his 2021 big-league appearances. Lopez ranks in the top 35, and Archer is near the backend of the top 75 with his changeup’s active spin. 

Twins Sinker Leaderboard (Active Spin %)
Jorge Lopez (96%), Devin Smeltzer (93.2%), Dylan Bundy (93.1%)
Minnesota ranks well in the two pitches mentioned above, but the team doesn’t have a regular sinker ball pitcher with a high active spin %. Lopez cracks the top-30 with his sinker, which is the pitch he throws over 50% of the time. Opponents have posted a .230 BA and a .341 SLG facing his sinker. Smeltzer and Bundy sit just outside the top-40 according to the active spin on their sinkers. According to Baseball Savant, Smeltzer has only thrown ten sinkers this season, so that is hardly a large sample. Bundy’s sinker is his least utilized pitch (7.9%), as he has allowed a .500 SLG so far in 2022. 

Twins Slider Leaderboard (Active Spin %)
Sonny Gray (63.6%), Devin Smeltzer (58.4%), Jorge Lopez (40.7%)
Active spin on sliders is much different compared to other pitches because only two pitchers (Rich Hill and Steve Cishek) have an active spin % above 80%. Gray currently sits in fifth place on the MLB leaderboard, with only two AL pitchers ranking higher than him. He throws his slider 11.4% of the time, and batters have a .291 SLG when facing that pitch. Smeltzer ranks just outside the top-10 as he has held opponents to a .214 BA versus his slider. Lopez, who ranks in the top 60, appears on these leaderboards thanks to the amount of spin he generates. He doesn’t tend to get a lot of strikeouts, so he needs spin to coax outs. 

Are you surprised by any of the names on the leaderboards mentioned above? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[Mark G]

Now I know I will get a lecture on why I am too simplistic in my thinking,  , but let me see if I have the correlation right here.  We are right at or near the top with a bunch of our guys in the spin rate of many of their pitches, and.......let's see........we are pretty much at or near the bottom in length of starts out of our starters.  Now I don't know much about these things, but it would appear to the uneducated that one might go with the other.  I will wait to hear from folks far smarter than I.    

[Whitey333]

Spin rates?  Oh please quit trying to make bad pitchers look good.  What good is it when your top spin rates pitchers are amongst your poorest results pitchers.  Well researched article but it is just part of the new very boring emphasis on many of these types of stats.

[DJL44]

Next post the "location" leaderboard, or how often Twins pitchers hit their spot.

[terrydactyls]

If spin rate is such a positive thing, why do names like Archer, Bundy, and Smetzer appear in these lists and Duran does not?  I guess Duran is all smoke and mirrors?

[RJA]

Well, based on this data, it appears that a high spin rate may or may not lead to success on the diamond!  And, it may or may not be due to round 2 of a sticky stuff conspiracy.  Frankly, Smeltzer is getting bombed at AAA, and Archer has been so-so at best all year, and it looks like it has struck midnight and Lopez's carriage has turned into a pumpkin after his half year of success.  Frankly, success as a pitcher depends on so many things--velocity, spin rates, command, arm action, pitch selection, consistency, etc.--that, not being a pitching coach, I conclude that good pitchers find a way to get batters out and bad pitchers don't ;).

[USAFChief]

"Starting in 2020, Statcast posted an active spin leaderboard, which can also include an active spin %. They offer a longer explanation at their site, but the nuts-and-bolts description is the spin that contributes to movement, including up or down and side to side."

 

Um, wut? Active spin %?

 

seriously, I have no idea what this even means.

[bean5302]

Spin rates just indicate some potential. It's one "small" factor in a pitch's value. More important:
Pitch recognition.
Pitch location.
When the pitch breaks.
The direction the pitch breaks.
Pitch velocity.
 

[Doctor Gast]

Some can throw with high spin rate w/o any sticky stuff. If you want to see if someone is cheating you have to look at the drastic change of spin rate from before.

[ashbury]

Any list where Sandy Alcantara ranks #148 and Max Scherzer ranks #155 (fastball spin), while luminaries like Eli Morgan and Anthony Banda are #1/#2, is a list I will not pay much attention to.

I loves me some baseball data, but I want data that correlates with something successful.

[mikelink45]

This is great if we are going to start a frisbee league.  Otherwise I like wins, innings, era...

[farmerguychris]

Is it in Japan that the balls are a little tacky out of the box?  I like that idea here - levels the playing field.  Pitchers shouldn't get penalized for following the rules, but they do in the MLB.