Maeda unlikely to return during regular season

[Otto von Ballpark]

Would you still roll with him in your playoff bullpen?

 

[ashbury]

But, in the unlikely event.... uh, probably no.

[bean5302]

Nope. If he's not ready for the regular season, experiment time for a guy who may struggle to throw strikes isn't the best option for the playoffs.

[USAFChief]

No. Not even a consideration.

[gman]

See you in the spring

[DocBauer]

Never expected him back. But really hoped he might be to help, but mostly to shake off a little rust.

I don't know what it is about Maeda, might be his stuff, his experience, or his mindset, but I've just always felt that as long as he's healthy, he would be just fine when he came back. He doesn't have to be the Cy Young 2020 candidate version of himself, or the ST 2021 version, working on a 5th pitch, and looking just as good or better before his arm blew up. All he has to be is 100% healthy and just be his normal self. If he is that, the Twins won't have a "Verlander" type of #1....but how many teams do....but even without an addition they could have 4 #2 SP who will sometimes pitch like a #1 ACE-type. 

Not saying I wouldn't add an arm, just saying a 100% healthy Maeda makes a difference in 2023 whether he pitches a single inning this year or not.

[lecroy24fan]

I'm on the fence. If the pen stabilizes I'd say no. If they need help and he's ready i think I'd do it based on having postseason experience. if they were to do that I'd think he might get a few appearances in St. Paul or TF before the season ends.

[Battle ur tail off]

3 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Would you still roll with him in your playoff bullpen?

 

No way. The only reason I’d even let him into a game is if the season is over and we have no chance. Even then it’s not worth it. Let’s see what he has next year. If I’m being honest though I’m counting on very little #5-6 type starter if we’re lucky. Hope I’m wrong though 

[wabene]

Geez this guy is a composed pros pro, when he does return, next year or this, I'm counting on him. He's been pitching for years with a weakened elbow, he might just be better. 

[CRF]

Absolutely not. He'll be in the rotation next spring. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, the minor league season goes pretty late, so this statement technically doesn’t preclude some rehab appearances there.

But if that was the case, you’d think he could appear in the final week of MLB games too.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If Maeda is on schedule, and the report is not saying he isn’t, then we can expect him to appear in minor league games soon as part of his rehab. Pitching motion should be the same regardless.

As long as Maeda stays on schedule, I don’t think it would hurt to bring him up for a couple appearances with the Twins near the end, as Otto said the season is an extra week long*. I’d just keep it to very low leverage appearances, assuming there will be some.  
 

So I am wondering if he’s just a little behind schedule and they are just trying to plan out September and get certainty on some guys?
 

* Otto didn’t say that and it’s only an extra series long 

[wabene]

Per Dan Hayes of The Athletic: "Falvey wouldn’t rule out the Twins saying “go” to Maeda were the club to reach the playoffs. With his one-year surgery anniversary coming up Thursday and the Twins ideally needing him only in relief, it’s possible Maeda pitches in October."

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, wabene said:

Geez this guy is a composed pros pro, when he does return, next year or this, I'm counting on him. He's been pitching for years with a weakened elbow, he might just be better. 

It's not about Maeda's arm strength or professionalism. It's about the track record of UCL repair recipients often being unable to command their pitches until they get enough repetition to get a solid feel for them. It's common to see walk rates increase a lot for at least a short while when pitchers return. 

[Mike Sixel]

16 hours ago, USAFChief said:

No. Not even a consideration.

This. Too bad. He'd be great there if healthy. 

[wabene]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's not about Maeda's arm strength or professionalism. It's about the track record of UCL repair recipients often being unable to command their pitches until they get enough repetition to get a solid feel for them. It's common to see walk rates increase a lot for at least a short while when pitchers return. 

Yeah I get that. My thoughts are if he starts throwing now and for the next month, if anybody can get their command back, I would bet on Maeda who has had sublime command and control of multiple pitches in his career. However I'm not sure it is likely.

[chpettit19]

My hope is that he gets some innings somewhere before the end of the year just to get back on a competitive mound and have that feeling again before heading into the offseason. But I don't see a place for him in the playoff pen if he's not going to be back in the next couple weeks. Just not enough time to get his groove back before the playoffs when you just want your best to be throwing their best every time they step out there. I'd hope for a shortened pen in the playoffs knowing there's extra off days and you won't be using anyone you don't have to. Get an extra speed guy or bat on the bench over having a guy you never plan to use out of the pen.

Mahle-Gray-Ryan rotation for round 1
Lopez-Duran-Jax-Thielbar-Fulmer-Bundy-Megill-Moran pen for round 1

Mahle-Gray-Ryan-Bundy rotation for future rounds (Ober and Winder battle it out for 5th, hopefully never used, spot if Twins want one)
Lopez-Duran-Jax-Thielbar-Fulmer-Megill-Moran pen for future rounds

I don't know if there's new roster rules for the Wild Card round this year, but those are the 11/12 guys I'd carry on my playoff staff assuming Ober or Winder come back looking like themselves. If not it's a battle between Archer, Sanchez, Sands, and Smeltzer for that last spot. I'd put Maeda in that last grouping even if he were coming back soon. So he's in the 14-18 spot battle for an 11 or 12 man staff for me.

[nicksaviking]

No way.

I mean, I'm more than happy to welcome Maeda back next year, but we're not talking about Justin Verlander here. A rust Maeda is unlikely to be better than the alternatives.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

Yeah I get that. My thoughts are if he starts throwing now and for the next month, if anybody can get their command back, I would bet on Maeda who has had sublime command and control of multiple pitches in his career. However I'm not sure it is likely.

I'd absolutely love to see Maeda back, if he's really ready. I'm sure the Twins will watch him very closely to verify how his command looks, but that'll have to come against AAA guys. The fact they haven't shut him down already is very encouraging about how he's progressing. I think, right now, Maeda returns if the Twins are going to make the playoffs or are highly likely to make them. If the Twins look to be out of it in mid-September, Maeda gets shut down.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Mahle-Gray-Ryan rotation for round 1
Lopez-Duran-Jax-Thielbar-Fulmer-Bundy-Megill-Moran pen for round 1

I would want Winder in that bullpen

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I would want Winder in that bullpen

That's fair. I wouldn't expect him to be used at all, though. I wouldn't expect anyone beyond Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Lopez, Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Fulmer, or Bundy to be used in the wild card round.