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MLBTR: Twins setting sky-high price on Berríos


I don't think anyone is surprised the Twins are placing a high price on Berríos but according to Dan Hayes, the asking price is "one pre-arb MLB player and two top 100 prospects".

That's an insane ask and makes me think the Twins aren't actually interested in trading Berríos.

Which isn't necessarily the wrong decision but they better do a hell of a lot better job in the coming offseason than they did this past offseason.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-trade-rumors-jose-berrios.html

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I hope it is sky high. They won’t get their initial asking price but they need to start sky high. They also need to view it as trading Berrios and a comp pick they would receive when he becomes a free agent. They are essentially offering Berrios and a Noah Miller type or Berrios and an 18 year Berrios (the Twins comp pick for Cuddyer).

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6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I hope it is sky high. They won’t get their initial asking price but they need to start sky high. They also need to view it as trading Berrios and a comp pick they would receive when he becomes a free agent. They are essentially offering Berrios and a Noah Miller type or Berrios and an 18 year Berrios (the Twins comp pick for Cuddyer).

I generally agree but the problem with that approach is that we have no idea if a comp pick will be attached to free agents after this season.

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That is absolutely the right approach. We all know that it's pitching that gets you through the playoffs and any contending team will want to add him ... so pay up. That said ... is there a team that would make that deal? Would you? I'd certainly enter into the bargaining to see what it would really take, but if that's a firm line ... dunno. Seems like they are betting on a team being desperate enough ... I hope it's not the White Sox.

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28 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I generally agree but the problem with that approach is that we have no idea if a comp pick will be attached to free agents after this season.

I get that but I am selling today and the comp pick exists today. I am valuing Berrios and the pick as  make this trade.

On the player’s side the concern is losing a pick as a result of signing a free agent. The concern hasn’t been the compensation. If there is a change I think it will removing/changing the penalty of losing a pick to the signing team. I think the compensation part will remain.

 

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11 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I get that but I am selling today and the comp pick exists today. I am valuing Berrios and the pick as  make this trade.

On the player’s side the concern is losing a pick as a result of signing a free agent. The concern hasn’t been the compensation. If there is a change I think it will removing/changing the penalty of losing a pick to the signing team. I think the compensation part will remain.

 

What is your plan for fielding a competitive team in 2022? 2023?

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1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't think anyone is surprised the Twins are placing a high price on Berríos but according to Dan Hayes, the asking price is "one pre-arb MLB player and two top 100 prospects".

That's an insane ask and makes me think the Twins aren't actually interested in trading Berríos.

Which isn't necessarily the wrong decision but they better do a hell of a lot better job in the coming offseason than they did this past offseason.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-trade-rumors-jose-berrios.html

I think Berrios is worth that, assuming the top 100 picks aren’t both top 10. If they were 50 and 40 and the pre-Arb, that would all be fair, IMO. 

I just read Berrios’ comments that started with, "The Twins can do whatever they want," and they turned me off. It sounds like he doesn’t care if he’s here. That attitude makes me feel more amenable to a trade that brings the pre-Arb and two top 100 prospects.

I would like to keep Nelson Cruz, so maybe trading Berrios, Simmons, possibly Robles (I would keep Robles since trading him after his improvement seems nearly tantamount to giving up Trevor May). I would be inclined to move Donaldson but it sounds like they won’t. A top 10-ish pitching prospect plus salary relief for Donaldson would be two positives and they could slide Jose Miranda in at 3rd. I think it’s time.

I’d still try to sign Buxton but if the vibe coming back is like Berrios, I think they’d have to trade him too.

Even if they are forced to trade those two and say Donaldson that could bring back as many as 4 or 5 pitching prospects and they do have Winder and Balazovic who look nearly ready and possibly Charlie Barnes as well.

I would keep Cruz because he has been excellent and appears to be a psitive influence as well. He’s added class and prestige to the organization. I think his teammates love him and so de we fans. I think for the good of the organization, it would be a great achievement o have Cruz finish his career as a Twin. Who knows, maybe he reaches 500 homers. He just isn’t slowing down at all and there are no signs that he will anytime soon. I’d get my trade value back from the other players mentioned.

Perhaps Pineda could be in that group too. And I would charge very hard after a #1 or #2 free agent pitcher like Robbie Ray or Marcus Stroman.

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19 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I just read Berrios’ comments that started with, "The Twins can do whatever they want," and they turned me off. It sounds like he doesn’t care if he’s here. That attitude makes me feel more amenable to a trade that brings the pre-Arb and two top 100 prospects.

I think this is pretty unfair. Berríos has been with the Twins since he was a teenager and now they're considering trading him because he won't sign for pennies on the dollar. Neither side is really wrong in their thinking but neither side is showing much loyalty to one another, either. I'm always confused why fans tend to look down on players for behaving in the same manner that front offices have behaved since the beginning of the sport.

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1 minute ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

What is your plan for fielding a competitive team in 2022? 2023?

First I would pay up to sign Berrios. He may want to test the market no matter the offer. 

Honestly though while I think it is reasonable to build a starting staff that can be competitive for 2022 (maybe around a 25% chance for wild card) I don’t think it is reasonable to build a staff that can contend in the near future.

There are three possibilities outcomes going into next year.

  • The Twins have extended Berrios, Buxton and maybe Rogers and trade off Donaldson and the expiring contracts.
  • The Twins retain but are not able to extend the three going for it in 2022. 
  • The Twins sell high and the three are not part of the 2022 roster. The system has several more promising prospects.

In the first and last scenario I am looking longer term. I am filling the staff with young controllable pitching and letting them grow knowing failure is a big part of that growth. My wild card chances next year are diminished or in the third path without Berrios probably near 0. The young pitchers would need to have extraordinary starts to their careers and Maeda would have to be the 2020 version both of which are unlikely.

In the second version they really need to be all in for 2022. They need to sign vets on one one year contract and hope they all retain their performance. It could have been this year had Happ, Pineda, Colome, Shoemaker and Simmons hit their top quartile of projections rather than their bottom quartiles. I would also look to trade off prospect capital. The biggest bang for 2022 is trading for players who have one year left on their contracts. If I want the best roster for 2022 I need to focus on those impact players. That all I strategy might give the Twins enough to be a real contender. It will also leave them very barren beyond 2022.

My preference is option 1 and then 3 though I know it isn’t reasonable to expect a contending team in 2022 with either. I just think the pitching is too far away and can’t be fixed both short and long term. 

 

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Should absolutely start with a sky high price. The question really is whether or not they're willing to come down at all from that ask or if that's truly what it would take to get a deal done. Can't imagine any team is doing that deal for Berrios. How many teams even have those assets? 

There's also reports out there that the Dodgers are going to bring in a starter and are relatively desperate to do it. They've got a couple big time arms in the minors. Sounds like their top arm (Gray) is getting the call up (starting today?) so I'm sure he's off the table, but they have 2 other guys (Miller and Pepiot) who are well thought of. Could the Twins start with an ask of both of them and a young MLB pen arm and see where it goes? Hopefully end up with the pen arm, one of those guys, and a top 10-15 system middle infielder? 

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12 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

First I would pay up to sign Berrios. He may want to test the market no matter the offer. 

Honestly though while I think it is reasonable to build a starting staff that can be competitive for 2022 (maybe around a 25% chance for wild card) I don’t think it is reasonable to build a staff that can contend in the near future.

There are three possibilities outcomes going into next year.

  • The Twins have extended Berrios, Buxton and maybe Rogers and trade off Donaldson and the expiring contracts.
  • The Twins retain but are not able to extend the three going for it in 2022. 
  • The Twins sell high and the three are not part of the 2022 roster. The system has several more promising prospects.

In the first and last scenario I am looking longer term. I am filling the staff with young controllable pitching and letting them grow knowing failure is a big part of that growth. My wild card chances next year are diminished or in the third path without Berrios probably near 0. The young pitchers would need to have extraordinary starts to their careers and Maeda would have to be the 2020 version both of which are unlikely.

In the second version they really need to be all in for 2022. They need to sign vets on one one year contract and hope they all retain their performance. It could have been this year had Happ, Pineda, Colome, Shoemaker and Simmons hit their top quartile of projections rather than their bottom quartiles. I would also look to trade off prospect capital. The biggest bang for 2022 is trading for players who have one year left on their contracts. If I want the best roster for 2022 I need to focus on those impact players. That all I strategy might give the Twins enough to be a real contender. It will also leave them very barren beyond 2022.

My preference is option 1 and then 3 though I know it isn’t reasonable to expect a contending team in 2022 with either. I just think the pitching is too far away and can’t be fixed both short and long term. 

 

My preference is Options 1 or 2. I think they are capable of Option 1, but that Option 2 is most likely, and both will generate some real optimism again next spring.

 If they do decide on Option 3, which means trading Buxton/Berrios, then I don’t see why they wouldn’t trade Donaldson and Maeda as well. Option 3 sounds fine as a discussion exercise on a Twins fan website, but I would expect it to look pretty grim if it plays out in real life. 

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13 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think this is pretty unfair. Berríos has been with the Twins since he was a teenager and now they're considering trading him because he won't sign for pennies on the dollar. Neither side is really wrong in their thinking but neither side is showing much loyalty to one another, either; I'm always confused why fans tend to look down on players for behaving in the same manner that front offices has behaved since the beginning of the sport.

I don't know that the Twins want him for 'pennies on the dollar', they just won't want to spend top 20 money to a guy who is more like top 40-50.

Looking at the top contenders right now, going into the playoffs Berrios would slot in as a #4 or top bullpen arm on their staff. But if he thinks he'll command top dollar from even one team out there (and I don't blame him at all for thinking that) then the Twins will have to match that or let him go find out for himself. Like Yu Darvis had to find out the hard way a few years ago that he's not viewed as an elite ace. Even if he only ends up with offers similar to (or less than) what the Twins proposed, they will probably lose him to a more competitive/intriguing team.

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2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't think anyone is surprised the Twins are placing a high price on Berríos but according to Dan Hayes, the asking price is "one pre-arb MLB player and two top 100 prospects".

That's an insane ask and makes me think the Twins aren't actually interested in trading Berríos.

Which isn't necessarily the wrong decision but they better do a hell of a lot better job in the coming offseason than they did this past offseason.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/07/twins-trade-rumors-jose-berrios.html

Do you think this has to do with what the Twins saw the Red Sox get in the Betts trade?  They got Verdugo who essentially was a starter at the MLB level and couple of solid prospects to boot for one year of Mookie Betts.  I have to believe the Twins think they deserve a similar deal for one and half years of Berrios.  

Maybe they can be talked down from that but I have to believe they feel that is what the market will bear for a player of his caliber.

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3 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

I don't know that the Twins want him for 'pennies on the dollar', they just won't want to spend top 20 money to a guy who is more like top 40-50.

If Berríos stays healthy, he'll get Zack Wheeler money and I've been saying that for over a year now.

The Twins haven't come within $50m of offering him Zack Wheeler money.

Whether you agree with it or not, the reality is that a pitcher of Berríos quality is going to command $100m or more in free agency.

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5 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

If they do decide on Option 3, which means trading Buxton/Berrios, then I don’t see why they wouldn’t trade Donaldson and Maeda as well.

I think selling Maeda today might be selling low. He also has a contract that is under control beyond 2022 and very reasonable even he were to become a bullpen piece.

I think Donaldson is a sell high in any option. 

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5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I think selling Maeda today might be selling low. He also has a contract that is under control beyond 2022 and very reasonable even he were to become a bullpen piece.

I think Donaldson is a sell high in any option. 

Agreed. I wouldn't consider moving on from Maeda right now. He has shown flashes of his 2020 season but has also battled groin issues and arm fatigue. We don't really know where he's going to settle yet but I it's likely a higher performance level than we've seen in 2021.

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6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If Berríos stays healthy, he'll get Zack Wheeler money and I've been saying that for over a year now.

The Twins haven't come within $50m of offering him Zack Wheeler money.

Whether you agree with it or not, the reality is that a pitcher of Berríos quality is going to command $100m or more in free agency.

If he'd take Zach Wheeler money I'd give that to him today and put this today bed. I bet the Twins would too. I think he feels he can do better than that if he can put together one good year before free agency though. He's going to take that bet because Zach Wheeler money is basically the floor if he makes it to FA without an implosion or injury.

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47 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think this is pretty unfair. Berríos has been with the Twins since he was a teenager and now they're considering trading him because he won't sign for pennies on the dollar. Neither side is really wrong in their thinking but neither side is showing much loyalty to one another, either. I'm always confused why fans tend to look down on players for behaving in the same manner that front offices have behaved since the beginning of the sport.

I guess I’d much prefer to hear him say, I want to be with the Twins. I think Cruz had that attitude last offseason and so did Brad Hand as well.

Are they really offering him pennies on the dollar?

When I heard Jim Pohlad say he could sign both (just recently), I was assuming that for a guy that’s been owner or the son of an owner for almost 30 years, that he knew the approximate value of both players when he said yes. He has the power to step in and say yes to Buxton and Berrios just as he said yes to the reporter’s question. This is all so very confusing to me.

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Just now, Greglw3 said:

I guess I’d much prefer to hear him say, I want to be with the Twins. I think Cruz had that attitude last offseason and so did Brad Hand as well.

Are they really offering him pennies on the dollar?

When I heard Jim Pohlad say he could sign both (just recently), I was assuming that for a guy that’s been owner or the son of an owner for almost 30 years, that he knew the approximate value of both players when he said yes. He has the power to step in and say yes to Buxton and Berrios just as he said yes to the reporter’s question. This is all so very confusing to me.

Cruz was so dedicated to the Twins he waited to sign until the eleventh hour when MLB finally announced the NL would not have the DH in 2021. :D

I'd have to dig it up but the last I heard a year+ ago, the Twins were reportedly offering Berríos somewhere around $50m, but I can't recall the specifics (or that the reports were accurate but they're all we have to go on).

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36 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

If he'd take Zach Wheeler money I'd give that to him today and put this today bed. I bet the Twins would too. I think he feels he can do better than that if he can put together one good year before free agency though. He's going to take that bet because Zach Wheeler money is basically the floor if he makes it to FA without an implosion or injury.

I'd be hesitant to offer him Wheeler money unless he agrees to take a year off Wheeler's deal because he's not a free agent for another 15 months.

There's a fair amount of risk into giving a guy full-blown free agent money when he's not going to be a free agent for over a year.

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Not a big fan of giving Berrios a contract similar to Wheeler's, but their career stats and rates are very similar. And as far as length of contract, he'll be a year younger than Wheeler was when he signed, and Berrios has been injury free as a major leaguer.

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Since the article says "top 100" that generally means at least 1 of the 2 potential prospects are outside the top 30, top 50, etc. In addition, we don't know what quality of pre-arb player the Twins are wanting. A pre-arbitration, low ceiling back end of the rotation arm? They're nice and they don't totally grow on trees, but they're not super valuable either.

1 prospect ranked 30th, 1 prospect ranked 90th and a low ceiling back end rotation arm isn't a huge ask for a pitcher at Berrios' caliber, IMHO. 

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4 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

He's banking on himself.  A young, durable FA is going to make a ton of money.  He'll blow past what Wheeler got fairly easily IMO.  6 and 150M is the low end.  I don't think they get him to ink a deal with less than 150M on the table.

I'm not sure he'll blow past Wheeler money, as a big draw to Wheeler was the general sentiment the Mets hadn't gotten the best out of him... and the general sentiment was right. Wheeler has been a beast since leaving New York, jumping from "good" to "elite level ace" numbers.

Inversely, Berríos has age, durability, and performance (relative to Wheeler's numbers with the Mets) on his side.

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14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I'm not sure he'll blow past Wheeler money, as a big draw to Wheeler was the general sentiment the Mets hadn't gotten the best out of him... and the general sentiment was right. Wheeler has been a beast since leaving New York, jumping from "good" to "elite level ace" numbers.

Inversely, Berríos has age, durability, and performance (relative to Wheeler's numbers with the Mets) on his side.

I'd argue that first paragraph might be the same for Berrios.

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