Maeda and Fastballs

[jorgenswest]

Kenta Maeda threw 36 fastball yesterday. For those 36 fastball he got no whiffs and they generated his lowest fastball spin rate in the last two years. In three of his last 4 starts he has no swings and misses on his fastball. Does he need a sticky ball to be effective? Can he command his fastball without a sticky ball? Below is a chart of his spin rates comparing 2020 vs. 2021.

How should the Twins proceed? If he can't command his fastball do they need to put him in the bullpen where he can limits its use? They need bullpen help and it would certainly save them several million in incentives. He may be a very valuable bullpen piece at a very reasonable cost. The incentives start adding up soon. This is a lost season. Should the Twins move him to the bullpen? He certainly can't win games as a starter if his fastball continues to be so ineffective.

Data from baseball savant

[Otto von Ballpark]

11 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Does he need a sticky ball to be effective?

Donaldson crossing home plate last night: "Hands not sticky anymore!"

Maeda, hearing this in the dugout:

[Mike Sixel]

Zero swings and misses on his FB in 3 starts? Yikes. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’d focus more on making sure he’s healthy and getting reps before making any big changes.

If you look on that graph, it appears his average FB spin is down about 50 rpm, which isn’t nothing but also isn’t terribly significant. Some guys are losing 300 rpm so Maeda’s marginal loss of spin could be explained by any number of things (including sticky stuff). 

[Vanimal46]

 

Yesterday was the lowest registered spin rate on his fastball in his career. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Yesterday was the lowest registered spin rate on his fastball in his career. 

Plenty of posters on the Donaldson thread might not like this.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

 

Yesterday was the lowest registered spin rate on his fastball in his career. 

Ah, there you go. That's the data I was trying to find and couldn't see where it was thanks to two screaming children (summer vacation is awesome!).

That graph:

[jorgenswest]

Why not move him to the bullpen and reduce his fastball usage? Let him prove he can be effective and bring him back in August based on performance.

The answer is they don’t have anyone else. That isn’t a good enough answer though. There are significant incentives tied to his being an effective starter. I would put him in the bullpen even if it means Shoemaker, Jax or openers in the rotation. I would get Winder in the rotation as soon as possible. He turns 25 in October so service time is not an issue.

[Number3]

Spin rate??? Who cares? How about good old fashioned command of your fast ball in all 4 quadrants and mixing it up with at least 2 preferably 3 other pitches. Secret to pitching is keeping the hitter guessing and control. This craaaaap about spin rates and launch angles and exit velocities is part of what should have been on the thread that was moved to another forum. And these POP UP ADS ARE DRIVING ME CRAZY.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Can someone point me directly to where the game-by-game  or even pitch-to-pitch spin rates are located? @jorgenswest @Vanimal46  

Maeda's four-seam spin rates have actually been decreasing by small amounts, on a year-by-year basis. Personally I could attribute that to aging.

[Vanimal46]

2 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Can someone point me directly to where the game-by-game  or even pitch-to-pitch spin rates are located? @jorgenswest @Vanimal46  

Maeda's four-seam spin rates have actually been decreasing by small amounts, on a year-by-year basis. Personally I could attribute that to aging.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?gamePk=633478
 

Mostly I search for the nice looking graphs on Twitter from someone else who put in the time. 

[chpettit19]

What's his velo been doing over the last few years? 50ish drop in RPMs could be explained by velo decrease. I'd say seeing his RPMs go down year over year over the last handful of years is of bigger concern to me. Especially when paired with his complete loss of command this year. If he can't spot his stuff he's in trouble moving forward, especially assuming the decrease in "stuff" as he continues to age.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I’m from LA and I remember how the Dodgers used to use Maeda. He would start out in the rotation and then about August they were switch him to to be an eighth inning set up man in the bullpen. He was very effective that way. The book on him was he had about 130-150 good innings per year, not enough to be a full-time starter but more than you need from a reliever. 
 

I personally think the season is over for the standpoint of contending. I would advocate putting Maeda in the bullpen after the All-Star break and giving his starts to Winder.  Good way to both evaluate Winder, save Maeda if you want him to start next year, and evaluate him as a reliever. This year is all about evaluation for next year. This may hurt him with some incentives so restructure his contract a little. 

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Number3 said:

Spin rate??? Who cares? How about good old fashioned command of your fast ball in all 4 quadrants and mixing it up with at least 2 preferably 3 other pitches. Secret to pitching is keeping the hitter guessing and control. This craaaaap about spin rates and launch angles and exit velocities is part of what should have been on the thread that was moved to another forum. And these POP UP ADS ARE DRIVING ME CRAZY.

 

The obvious conclusion is that pretty much all of the paid baseball professionals are wrong about this and you’re definitely right. Spin doesn’t matter because you said so. That checks out. 

[gunnarthor]

The line to apologize to me for suggesting Maeda wasn't the second best starter in the AL forms behind Brock. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

The line to apologize to me for suggesting Maeda wasn't the second best starter in the AL forms behind Brock. 

I never said he was the second best starter so start your line somewhere else. Also, don’t be a childish ass. 

[jorgenswest]

Doesn't the sticky stuff help with command? It isn't just spin rate.

[Brock Beauchamp]

7 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Doesn't the sticky stuff help with command? It isn't just spin rate.

Yep, which is why Maeda's wildness last night is particularly concerning to me. If his grip on the ball requires sticky stuff to maintain control... yikes.

[howeda7]

20 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Yep, which is why Maeda's wildness last night is particularly concerning to me. If his grip on the ball requires sticky stuff to maintain control... yikes.

His start last week was well after the memo and not nearly as bad.  I'm not ready to assume it was all a foreign substance issue.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

His start last week was well after the memo and not nearly as bad.  I'm not ready to assume it was all a foreign substance issue.

No, it could be any number of things but it worries me a fair amount going forward. If he was reliant on substances to be an MLB quality pitcher, we'd really have no idea because he hasn't been in the league long enough to have pitched before they became en vogue.

[In My La Z boy]

Apparently the Dodgers weren't just screwing him over on his contract incentives. We definitely could use help in the bullpen. 

[Number3]

17 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The obvious conclusion is that pretty much all of the paid baseball professionals are wrong about this and you’re definitely right. Spin doesn’t matter because you said so. That checks out. 

 

15 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Apparently the Dodgers weren't just screwing him over on his contract incentives. We definitely could use help in the bullpen. 

Ok, you work on your spin rate and I'll work on my command and try to improve my secondary pitches.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Number3 said:

 

Ok, you work on your spin rate and I'll work on my command and try to improve my secondary pitches.

[Dodecahedron]

I had not heard that fastball spin rate was important until the narrative started this year.  Before this year, fastballs were about velocity and spin rates were for breaking balls.

So, going back to the truths about fastballs, yes Maeda's fastball velocity is significantly down this year.  It's the lowest it has been since his rookie year.

[Number3]

If his velocity is down that could indicate another physical problem. I think the pitch is called a fast ball; not a spin ball.

There were and still are a few pitchers very concerned with spin rate. Two I can think of are Hoyt Wilhelm and Phil Niekro.

[jorgenswest]

18 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I had not heard that fastball spin rate was important until the narrative started this year.  Before this year, fastballs were about velocity and spin rates were for breaking balls.

So, going back to the truths about fastballs, yes Maeda's fastball velocity is significantly down this year.  It's the lowest it has been since his rookie year.

I am not sure what you mean about truths. I appreciated and bookmarked this fivethirtyeight article from 2018 on fastballs, spin rates and swings and misses.

A small excerpt…

Quote

But how can a player — or a whole team — develop high spin rates? Some players have high fastball spin rates innately, and others don’t — changing grip on a breaking ball can change spin rate, but it’s difficult to throw a fastball differently. Unlike velocity, which can be trained, a pitcher’s fastball spin ratio is thought to be extremely difficult to alter naturally.

The unnatural solution is for a pitcher to apply a foreign substance. In May, Cleveland Indians pitcher Trevor Bauer drew the ire of the Houston Astros when he addressed the subject of sticky substances and their effect on performance.

“There is a problem in baseball right now that has to do with sticky substances and spin rates,” Bauer said. “We know how it affects spin rate and we know how spin rate affects outcomes and pitches and movements that have a big difference in a game, a season and each individual player’s career.”

“The people who choose not to do it are at a competitive disadvantage.”

 

[Dodecahedron]

I don't think I said that no one has ever mentioned fastballs and spin rates in the same sentence.  Of course they have, this is baseball, someone has talked about everything there is to talk about.

I like what you pasted.  It says that most pitchers can't control spin rate on fastballs, which supports what I said very well.  The anatomy of a good fastball is its velocity, not every pitcher has cheated.  Not even the majority have.  Your quote then goes down a rabbit hole, quoting some person named Bauer who says that anyone who doesn't cheat is at a disadvantage (though his quote does not seem to be about fastballs).  This is true for anything.  The person who cheats at Monopoly has the advantage, right?  If the two of us are playing Tiddly Winks and I juice my squidger*, I'm at an advantage.

People have measured what velocity makes a "good fastball" year after year.  In most years this is a bit over 92 MPH.  I see no reason to abandon all the data that goes into this and pivot to fastball spin rates, because I don't see any 88 MPH fastball guys succeeding in the MLB.  I bet some of those guys can get some spin on it, right?

*Please don't juice your squidger.

[jorgenswest]

As I read paragraphs two and three I see the value of spin and a fastball particularly a fastball up in the zone. I see how an increased spin rate on fastballs at the same velocity increase swings and misses.

Later I read that unlike breaking balls where a grip can change the spin rate it is very difficult to change the spin rate of the fastball naturally. Unnatural means are needed to change that spin rate and get more swings and misses on the fastball. Is it possible that spider tack use has been more important or at least as important to the fastball than breaking balls? 

Ultimately whether it is sticky substances or not there were no swings and misses on Maeda’s 36 fastballs in his last start. In two of his three previous starts there were no swings and misses on the his fastball. He can’t succeed as a starting pitcher without a fastball. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Dodecahedron said:

I don't think I said that no one has ever mentioned fastballs and spin rates in the same sentence.  Of course they have, this is baseball, someone has talked about everything there is to talk about.

I like what you pasted.  It says that most pitchers can't control spin rate on fastballs, which supports what I said very well.  The anatomy of a good fastball is its velocity, not every pitcher has cheated.  Not even the majority have.  Your quote then goes down a rabbit hole, quoting some person named Bauer who says that anyone who doesn't cheat is at a disadvantage (though his quote does not seem to be about fastballs).  This is true for anything.  The person who cheats at Monopoly has the advantage, right?  If the two of us are playing Tiddly Winks and I juice my squidger*, I'm at an advantage.

People have measured what velocity makes a "good fastball" year after year.  In most years this is a bit over 92 MPH.  I see no reason to abandon all the data that goes into this and pivot to fastball spin rates, because I don't see any 88 MPH fastball guys succeeding in the MLB.  I bet some of those guys can get some spin on it, right?

*Please don't juice your squidger.

You're jumping across points here, though. No one, pretty much ever, is saying velocity doesn't matter but in a hyper-competitive sport that earns players hundreds of millions for rising to the cream of the crop, any advantage will be taken, "legal" or not.

And what would you rather have, a 95mph fastball with a 2400 rpm spin rate or a 95mph fastball with a 2100 rpm spin rate?

It's pretty obvious which of those literally every MLB pitcher would choose. And that's why we're in the situation we're in right now.

[SkyBlueWaters]

19 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I’m from LA and I remember how the Dodgers used to use Maeda. He would start out in the rotation and then about August they were switch him to to be an eighth inning set up man in the bullpen. He was very effective that way. The book on him was he had about 130-150 good innings per year, not enough to be a full-time starter but more than you need from a reliever. 
 

I personally think the season is over for the standpoint of contending. I would advocate putting Maeda in the bullpen after the All-Star break and giving his starts to Winder.  Good way to both evaluate Winder, save Maeda if you want him to start next year, and evaluate him as a reliever. This year is all about evaluation for next year. This may hurt him with some incentives so restructure his contract a little. 

 

 

We're down to Berrios, Maeda, Happ and Ober for starters as it is. Even when we get Pineda back, we're still trotting Ober out there--who gets smacked around like the triple A pitcher he is.

I think it gets hard on the players to go out and get shellacked on a regular basis. Also, if we look too much like a pitching basket case, it might become hard to sign any quality free agents.

I see the points being made about Maeda, in isolation. But in our context, we need innings from starters. He's thrown 56.2 so far, halfway through the season. If we can get the 130-150 IP you mention, I'd think we can leave him in the rotation a bit longer before bringing up more minor leaguers to face major league hitters--before they might be ready for it.