A Bold Twins Trade

[Cap'n Piranha]

My proposal; send Berrios, Buxton, Rogers, and Sano (while also paying for the rest of his contract, including buyout.  If the Padres pick up the option, they send the buyout back to the Twins).  The Twins get from the Padres Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Haynes, and Lizarraga.

The Padres immediately increase their chances to win the West (it seems likely the two wild cards will come from the NL West; do you really want to worry about having to beat the Dodgers in a 50-50 game?).  They also keep all of those guys for next year, giving them a nice two year window to win a title.

The Twins signal they are in rebuilding mode, but get a potential front-line starter, a guy who should be their starting shortstop next year, a replacement for Buxton in center, and two lottery ticket arms.  If this hits, the Twins will have a core of Kiriloff, Polanco, Abrams, Miranda, Arraez, Hassell, Larnach, and Jeffers in the field, with Gore, Maeda, Duran, Balazovic, and Winder in the rotation in 2023 (if they trade Donaldson, which they should, even if they have to eat some money).  With that core, and all kinds of money to spend, the Twins could be a dark horse in 2023, and a serious contender in 2024 (think the 2020/2021 White Sox timeline).

[jorgenswest]

Are any of those players on the 40 man roster? Would the Padres also need to DFA four players to make this deal work?

[Mike Sixel]

Intriguing.....but man, Gore just cannot throw strikes for 2+ years now......Also, are we sure Abrams can play SS? I have no idea....Cool idea that I doubt will ever happen.

[howeda7]

That's a lot to give up for 3 prospects and two lottery tickets.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Haven’t really looked at the Padres prospects, but I’m not sure what they would do with Sano. (Not that Hosmer is very good but they are already stuck with him.)

Buxton is also a little tricky to fit in — they already have Grisham in CF and he’s been pretty awesome. I guess they’d bench Myers this year and put either Grisham or Buxton in a corner, but they could maybe trade for a cheaper corner rental instead. FWIW, Myers is still under contract for 2022 too, although I guess Pham will be a FA after the season.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Are any of those players on the 40 man roster? Would the Padres also need to DFA four players to make this deal work?

Good call out, it does not appear that any of them are.  I'm sure the Padres have 4 middling guys they can cut loose/trade to another team for prospects who do not need to be on the 40 man.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Intriguing.....but man, Gore just cannot throw strikes for 2+ years now......Also, are we sure Abrams can play SS? I have no idea....Cool idea that I doubt will ever happen.

MLB.com seems to think so on Abrams, noting that his greatest improvement was made on the defensive side in 2020.  He has 80 grade speed, so you would think range would not be an issue.  Fangraphs isn't so sure, but I would think MLB would have more insight into what happened at alternate sites and camps in 2020 than Fangraphs would.

As for Gore, maybe a change of scenery helps him out.  That being said, this is the first year he's truly struggling with walks, and is perhaps not coincidentally, his first crack at AAA, at the age of 22.  Maybe it all falls apart, but if it doesn't, a stable of Gore, Duran, Balazovic, Winder, and Canterino gives you a decent shot to get 1-2 upper half of the rotation starters, and maybe more.

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, howeda7 said:

That's a lot to give up for 3 prospects and two lottery tickets.

If Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers all leave after 2022 for nothing but (maybe) comp picks, and the Twins didn't compete with that trio in 2022, 3 prospects and 2 lottery tickets is a far better path.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

MLB.com seems to think so on Abrams, noting that his greatest improvement was made on the defensive side in 2020.  He has 80 grade speed, so you would think range would not be an issue.  Fangraphs isn't so sure, but I would think MLB would have more insight into what happened at alternate sites and camps in 2020 than Fangraphs would.

As for Gore, maybe a change of scenery helps him out.  That being said, this is the first year he's truly struggling with walks, and is perhaps not coincidentally, his first crack at AAA, at the age of 22.  Maybe it all falls apart, but if it doesn't, a stable of Gore, Duran, Balazovic, Winder, and Canterino gives you a decent shot to get 1-2 upper half of the rotation starters, and maybe more.

From what I've read, he wasn't in SD last year because of control..... That said, if anyone fixes it, he'll be quite good....

[Cap'n Piranha]

38 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Haven’t really looked at the Padres prospects, but I’m not sure what they would do with Sano. (Not that Hosmer is very good but they are already stuck with him.)

Buxton is also a little tricky to fit in — they already have Grisham in CF and he’s been pretty awesome. I guess they’d bench Myers this year and put either Grisham or Buxton in a corner, but they could maybe trade for a cheaper corner rental instead. FWIW, Myers is still under contract for 2022 too, although I guess Pham will be a FA after the season.

Good points here--maybe what makes more sense than paying for Sano is for the Twins to take back Myers, Or Hosmer with the Padres paying part of his salary.  With Grisham and Buxton in the outfield, the Padres would have very good defense, and some versatility in giving them both days off.

[Cap'n Piranha]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

From what I've read, he wasn't in SD last year because of control..... That said, if anyone fixes it, he'll be quite good....

I have not seen that, but nor have I really looked for it.  A quick perusal of his bb/9 shows 2019 at 3.32, which was the highest of his career.  That's not great, and you can argue that a top pitching prospect should not be walking that many, but I would counter with he was a 20 year old in AA.  This year the bb/9 is over 5, which is concerning to be sure.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't know the Padres prospects, but baseballtradevalues.com doesn't think this trade is particularly close, even if we ate Sano's salary:

FWIW, Gore looks like a match for Berrios, and Hassell for Buxton.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, worth noting that the Padres expect Clevinger back next year too, so the extra year of control on Berrios may not be quite so valuable to them.

[howeda7]

5 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I don't know the Padres prospects, but baseballtradevalues.com doesn't think this trade is particularly close, even if we ate Sano's salary:

FWIW, Gore looks like a match for Berrios, and Hassell for Buxton.

A pitcher who has a 6 ERA in AAA and just got demoted is worth 7 x as much a top 20 reliever? 

[bean5302]

MacKinzie Gore is a 22 year old 4 pitch starting pitching prospect who the Padres have aggressively promoted through their system. He's one of the elite prospects in baseball, ranked in the top 10 by multiple agencys and in the top 50 by everybody. A hiccup at this point is no big deal.

I agree that Rogers is pretty heavily underrated here, but even if he wasn't, he'd still carry a value much lower than Gore. Josh Hader has an extra year of control and a better track record than Rogers, plus he's been the definition of dominant this year. He's valued at about 25 MTV.

All that aside, I see no team in MLB taking Sano as moving bad contracts around just isn't as commonplace when there isn't a true salary cap. Also, the Padres are very close to the Luxury Tax this year... that's painful to think about. Another small market team who were willing to spend big when they sensed a potential opportunity.

[Twinfan603]

I think the Padres are pretty secure where they are. The Giants' rise interferes a bit, but I'd be surprised to see them deal away much prospect capital this year. They're trying to keep pace with the Dodgers and there's only so many high-end guys you can continually trade away.

[Major League Ready]

 I like the idea.  Losing Buxton and Berrios for comp picks would be detrimental for several years in the near future.  However, San Diego traded for Darvish / Snall and did not give up any top prospects.  All teams have become increasingly reluctant to give up top prospects.  The end result would be great.  I just think we will need to get fortunate in finding a couple trade partners willing to give up one top prospect for Berrios or Buxton.  

[bighat]

Great post, some fun things to chew on here.

In my opinion, I think you are vastly underrating how hard it is to find top tier, MLB talent. You are overvaluing prospects, which is something fans of bad small-market teams tend to do because it's really all they have to look forward to. As Twins fans, I believe we need to get out of this underdog mindset. We should reload, not rebuild.

In my opinion, I also don't like trading our two best players in one package deal to one other team.

Thanks again for the interesting post!

[Dodecahedron]

Sano might not be appealing to an NL team, though who knows I guess as the NL sometimes seems like bizarro world, and their strange decisions often have surprisingly good results.

The Padres probably realize they have a very small chance to win the division, but are almost guaranteed to make the last wild card spot.  If I were them, I would not make moves to chase after the former, but I may make moves to help in the playoffs.

The Padres only have one weak spot:  First base.  Sano would provide more pep at first than Hosmer with little risk, but there are probably better options out there if the Padres want to upgrade.  Plus, I don't think anybody wants Sano anywhere in the field long-term, and there's no way the Twins want to take on Hosmer's 60M remaining on his contract.

If I were the Padres and the Twins phoned up wanting to send over pitching, my first reaction would be to laugh.  This laugh would be spontaneous and uncontrollable.  The Twins should not embarrass themselves and make this phone call.  The best the pitchers the Twins have are way below who the Padres already have.

As for Buxton, every team would listen for trade offers there, but I don't see the Padres wanting to give anything up to get him.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

1 minute ago, Dodecahedron said:

If I were the Padres and the Twins phoned up wanting to send over pitching, my first reaction would be to laugh.  This laugh would be spontaneous and uncontrollable.  The Twins should not embarrass themselves and make this phone call.  The best the pitchers the Twins have are way below who the Padres already have.

Twins pitching overall has been poor, but Berrios and Rogers would fit in just fine on the Padres staff, or basically any staff.

Padres SP quality right now is just Darvish and Musgrove. Snell and Paddack have struggled and Lamet is injured again. They might have some help on the farm but I'd be surprised if they weren't looking at acquiring some outside help too.

 

[Dodecahedron]

3 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

Twins pitching overall has been poor, but Berrios and Rogers would fit in just fine on the Padres staff, or basically any staff.

Padres SP quality right now is just Darvish and Musgrove. Snell and Paddack have struggled and Lamet is injured again. They might have some help on the farm but I'd be surprised if they weren't looking at acquiring some outside help too.

 

Sure.  But if you have 11 guys as good as or better than Berrios and Rogers already, why make this trade?  What is the value for the Padres?  Do you make trades for someone to "fit in" (statistically) or do you try to improve?

[Otto von Ballpark]

16 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Sure.  But if you have 11 guys as good as or better than Berrios and Rogers already, why make this trade?  What is the value for the Padres?  Do you make trades for someone to "fit in" (statistically) or do you try to improve?

?

The Padres don't have 11 guys as good or better than Berrios and Rogers already. Go ahead and list the 11 if you want to make that argument. By either ERA- or FIP-, Berrios would be the 3rd best performing SP on their staff right now. By ERA-, Rogers would be their 3rd best reliever (and best left-handed reliever); by FIP-, he'd be their #1 reliever overall.

I don't think the OP's trade proposal is viable for a variety of reasons, but "Berrios and Rogers aren't good enough" isn't one of them.

[Number3]

You probably lost the Twins' brain trust after the word "bold". Plus the sabermetrics necessary to calculate the pros and cons would stump Einstein.

[Dodecahedron]

7 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

?

The Padres don't have 11 guys as good or better than Berrios and Rogers already. Go ahead and list the 11 if you want to make that argument. By either ERA- or FIP-, Berrios would be the 3rd best performing SP on their staff right now. By ERA-, Rogers would be their 3rd best reliever (and best left-handed reliever); by FIP-, he'd be their #1 reliever overall.

I don't think the OP's trade proposal is viable for a variety of reasons, but "Berrios and Rogers aren't good enough" isn't one of them.

Don't forget to look at the players that B-R (or whatever) does not list as starters or relievers.  The Padres have a few injured starters right now, and their fill-ins are doing even better.  The Padres are stacked, they gain nothing by trading for these two.  And yes, I do count 11 pitchers* either on the team, on the 40-man, or on short-term IL who are as good as or better than Berrios and Taylor.

*Actually, I count more like 13, but we can go with 11.

[Otto von Ballpark]

15 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

Don't forget to look at the players that B-R (or whatever) does not list as starters or relievers.  The Padres have a few injured starters right now, and their fill-ins are doing even better.  The Padres are stacked, they gain nothing by trading for these two.  And yes, I do count 11 pitchers* either on the team, on the 40-man, or on short-term IL who are as good as or better than Berrios and Taylor.

*Actually, I count more like 13, but we can go with 11.

Name the 11 or 13.

[Greglw3]

15 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I don't know the Padres prospects, but baseballtradevalues.com doesn't think this trade is particularly close, even if we ate Sano's salary:

FWIW, Gore looks like a match for Berrios, and Hassell for Buxton.

I don’t know Hassell but is he really in Buxton’s class or just a lot healthier?

Sano’s -21.8 really skews the analysis I think.

I wouldn’t do this trade from the Twins end but re-sign Berrios, Buxton and Rogers, trade Donaldson with included cash (15M?) and trade Simmons. 

Interesting proposal, though, if only for making me learn more about Abrams and Gore and Hassell.

[Otto von Ballpark]

8 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

I don’t know Hassell but is he really in Buxton’s class or just a lot healthier?

Hassell is #75 overall prospect at Fangraphs right now. Considering Buxton's current injured status and limited remaining team control, that seems about right for a match. (Again, no idea if the Padres are even interested in that level of OF upgrade.)

10 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

Sano’s -21.8 really skews the analysis I think.

It doesn't help! In fairness to the OP, he said we'd pay the rest of Sano's guaranteed salary. Still, that would only make him a neutral piece of the trade.

[Otto von Ballpark]

10 hours ago, howeda7 said:

A pitcher who has a 6 ERA in AAA and just got demoted is worth 7 x as much a top 20 reliever? 

As another poster alluded to, just 6 starts ago, Gore was a top 5-10 prospect in all of baseball, and maybe the #1 SP prospect. I don't know if 7 times more valuable is the precise difference (I'm sure that varies by team and need too), but prospects like Gore are not traded for relievers like Rogers.

Also, Gore's 5.85 ERA in AAA is in the old Pacific Coast League. League ERA is 5.69 there this season! Teams are scoring 6.06 runs per game. Gore needs to improve, obviously, but the league conditions might be exaggerating the degree of his struggles so far.

[SteelDodo]

Wow, interesting trade. I think it is a BIG overpay by SD, but I would have no issues accepting this deal. Frankly, I think I would still accept the deal (though it would be a closer decision) if the Padres only offered two of Gore/Abrams/Hassel in addition to the younger 2.

One thing that I really like though, is I hope the Twins can prioritize quality over quantity. I would MUCH rather get ~2-3 top 100 prospects, rather than a bunch of lower tier prospects. I think that packaging Berrios, Buxton, and Rogers (in some order) will likely yield higher prospects than if the Twins were to trade them each separately.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

20 hours ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

I don't know the Padres prospects, but baseballtradevalues.com doesn't think this trade is particularly close, even if we ate Sano's salary:

FWIW, Gore looks like a match for Berrios, and Hassell for Buxton.

Wow, looks like BTV is in love with Abrams.  Seems like he's pretty untouchable if the Padres feel this way as well.  I wonder if the Twins would rather have Gore + Hassell, or Abrams.