Garver

[jorgenswest]

Garver's 2019 season is getting further away. He may be the player we have seen the last two years which is not a major league player. He has two options. I would send him down now and give him a week before playing in AAA. Play him at DH and 1B so he can try to find his swing. I don't think his defense has been very helpful and while Astudillo might be a downgrade defensively I don't think it is a big drop. At least Astudillo is likely to put the ball in play in some one is on base.

 

Bring up Garver after a good month. If the good month never occurs at least they know they have a problem to fix at catcher.

 

The Twins could probably send Jeffers down too but I would start with Garver.

[4twinsJA]

It is time. Send Garver down, 4 Ks today, looks completely lost at plate, I have not given up on him but he needs at break and some success at lower level. Rorvedt? 

[old nurse]

Graver is not the only one in a post 2019 funk. They miss Rowson. 

[stringer bell]

Garver has been brutal for the short season in 2020 and so far this year. I don’t think he’s a good defensive catcher, so he has to hit and he’s failed to do that since some time in 2019. Perhaps expectations should be more modest than his 2019 numbers, but his production in 2020 and this year has been dreadful.

[bighat]

 

Can Tomas Telis hit? Send Garver and Jeffers down, bring up Telis and Rorvedt? Play Astudillo behind the plate? Wow, this is ugly no matter what you do,

Telis history: He played 48 games in 2017 for Miami and hit .240 in about 100 at-bats. He had 5 doubles, three triples (weird) and no homers. That was by far his best season and he played in the most games that year also. 

 

Telis has a career OPS of .565 and his career batting avg is .230. He only strikes out about 1 time every 10 at-bats, which means he does put the ball in play. He has a total of 1 career MLB home run.

 

Compare Telis to Astudillo, La Tortuga is far superior offensively. Willians has a career OPS of .738 and a career batting average of .294. Astudillo also virtually never strikes out.

 

All in all, Telis is kind of "Astudillo-Lite" in my opinion. He won't strike out much, he'll put the ball in play, but probably would bat 9th in the lineup.

 

If you want my honest opinion, a platoon of Astudillo and Telis behind the plate would be an improvement over Garver/Jeffers at this time.

[bighat]

 

 

Garver's 2019 season is getting further away.

Yet Dick Bremer keeps mentioning it when Garver comes to the plate. I don't know if he's trying to remind viewers why Garver is in the lineup, or if he's trying to make us feel better, or what - but it makes no sense and it's getting old.

 

Garver's looking more and more like a flash-in-the-pan. Might benefit from getting sent down, although of course that does nothing to help his already plummeting value. I think he'll be in a different uniform by 2022, and he's well on his way to bouncing around a few organizations as a backup/reserve before flaming out of the league all together.

If you cannot hit and you cannot play defense, you aren't going to stay in the league. He's killing the Twins right now and hasn't helped them for almost 2 years now. Time to try and fix him and if he can't be fixed, move on.

[Dodecahedron]

Garver did not play a good chunk of 2020; he has almost as many at bats in 2021 as he had in 2020.

 

When it comes to offensive performance in 2021 so far, Garver is near the middle of the pack in the AL. 

 

When it comes to defensive performance, Garver is again ranked near the middle. 

 

I get it -- going back to the Pierzynski days, many Twins fans expect a lot from catchers. Nothing wrong with that. However, Garver deserves time to figure things out. If he is still struggling in another two months, then I'm sure no one will object to the "let's run him out of town" narrative.

 

Note that "He's not what he was in 2019" is a completely different set of words than "He should not be playing." We should consider that. There was once a time when Twins fans adored Henry Blanco. If Garver finds his bat or finds his defense, I would hope people stop with these threads.

[Shaitan]

There is no AAA to send him to right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The problem right now is that you:

 

1. Need at least two catchers and both of the primary guys are terrible

 

2. Astudillo is a bad defensive catcher and also isn't hitting well

 

The Twins are between a bit of a rock and a hard place right now, as Jeffers and Garver are the two best defensive options right now (particularly Jeffers).

 

So if both players are going to suck at the plate, it may as well be Jeffers getting the bulk of playing time because he is superior behind the plate and has the most upside to improve at the plate.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm just really baffled by Garver... He's always been a pretty high upside offensive guy, or at least decent upside offensively... it's almost like he has lingering concussion effects or something of that sort. I don't know why he suddenly stopped being able to connect with fastballs, of all things.

 

If a guy stops hitting breaking balls, that's pretty common and could be a bunch of different things. But since when does a good hitter just start missing fastballs middle-middle, especially from opposite handed pitchers?

 

It's just so weird.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Garver story as I see it:

 

2018: Promoted to majors by necessity, trial by fire

 

2019: Worked his butt off in the off-season and spring training to be competent receiver; monster offensive season

 

In 2020, the pandemic and stoppage probably knocked him off his game. I’m willing to give him or any player a free pass because of that. There might be some carryover from that here in 2021. I do think the hitting comes back at some point.

[Dodecahedron]

 

I'm just really baffled by Garver... He's always been a pretty high upside offensive guy, or at least decent upside offensively... it's almost like he has lingering concussion effects or something of that sort. I don't know why he suddenly stopped being able to connect with fastballs, of all things.

 

If a guy stops hitting breaking balls, that's pretty common and could be a bunch of different things. But since when does a good hitter just start missing fastballs middle-middle, especially from opposite handed pitchers?

 

It's just so weird.

 

Seems like there are a couple of guys on this team who are feast or famine. 

 

At this point in this young season, it's difficult to avoid the comparisons to the 2016 team. 

 

- Bad bullpen management, check

- Bullpen meltdowns late in games, check

- Hitters who are swinging for the fences with poor success, check

 

This team can turn it around, but the clock is ticking. 100 losses can come up on ya fast.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Garver story as I see it:

2018: Promoted to majors by necessity, trial by fire

2019: Worked his butt off in the off-season and spring training to be competent receiver; monster offensive season

You're missing a year! 2017 was his brief debut, and 2018 he was perfectly competent at the plate (104 wRC+) in 335 PA, even before his 2019 monster season.

[KirbyDome89]

 

2. Astudillo is a bad defensive catcher and also isn't hitting well

I wish more people would realize this. I don't think those calling for Astudillo to be a primary catcher have any idea what type of clown show is bound to ensue. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Garver did not play a good chunk of 2020; he has almost as many at bats in 2021 as he had in 2020.

 

When it comes to offensive performance in 2021 so far, Garver is near the middle of the pack in the AL. 

 

When it comes to defensive performance, Garver is again ranked near the middle. 

 

I get it -- going back to the Pierzynski days, many Twins fans expect a lot from catchers. Nothing wrong with that. However, Garver deserves time to figure things out. If he is still struggling in another two months, then I'm sure no one will object to the "let's run him out of town" narrative.

 

Note that "He's not what he was in 2019" is a completely different set of words than "He should not be playing." We should consider that. There was once a time when Twins fans adored Henry Blanco. If Garver finds his bat or finds his defense, I would hope people stop with these threads.

The original poster in this thread wasn't suggesting "let's run him out of town" -- just giving him a break and a chance to get back on track outside of MLB game action.

 

It's one thing to slump, and the small sample sizes of 2020 and 2021 can magnify any slump, even if unremarkable otherwise.

 

But Garver's K rate has been crazy. 45.5% over 2020-2021. I've read that a player's K rate should be one of the stats to stabilize, around 60 PA. Garver's 2020-2021 sample is at 134 PA already. It's the highest K rate in MLB over 2020-2021, minimum 50 PA. Next highest is Akil Baddoo, a guy promoted straight from A-ball this year.

 

It's drastic enough that I'm not sure "let him play through it a couple more months" is necessarily the best path.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You're missing a year! 2017 was his brief debut, and 2018 he was perfectly competent at the plate (104 wRC+) in 335 PA, even before his 2019 monster season.

Thanks for clarifying. I meant that he was competent in 2019 with his catcher’s mitt on, as well. Compared to 2018 when he was very, very bad behind the plate.

[USAFChief]

Garver did not play a good chunk of 2020; he has almost as many at bats in 2021 as he had in 2020.

 

When it comes to offensive performance in 2021 so far, Garver is near the middle of the pack in the AL.

 

When it comes to defensive performance, Garver is again ranked near the middle.

 

I get it -- going back to the Pierzynski days, many Twins fans expect a lot from catchers. Nothing wrong with that. However, Garver deserves time to figure things out. If he is still struggling in another two months, then I'm sure no one will object to the "let's run him out of town" narrative.

 

Note that "He's not what he was in 2019" is a completely different set of words than "He should not be playing." We should consider that. There was once a time when Twins fans adored Henry Blanco. If Garver finds his bat or finds his defense, I would hope people stop with these threads.

Garver is "near the middle of the pack in the AL" offensively?

 

58 OPS+

 

That's not near the middle.

 

I also disagree with any ranking that has him as average defensively. He's pretty brutal.

 

Play a game with yourself when you watch a Twins game. Count the number of times Garver drops a ball that hits him in or near the glove.

 

Over/under is 3.5.

 

Among the worst set of "hands" you'll ever see in a big league player. He also doesn't throw well, block pitches well, or (IMO) call a game well.

 

I dont know why he has fallen off a cliff at the plate. Or if he can rebound. But he has to, because if he's not hitting, he is without any value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks for clarifying. I meant that he was competent in 2019 with his catcher’s mitt on, as well. Compared to 2018 when he was very, very bad behind the plate.

That's fair.

 

I was primarily looking at offense, but also, Garver was already in MLB and set to get 225+ PA in 2018 even before Castro went down. (Gimenez collected 225 PA the previous season, as Castro's backup.)

 

Garver's role expanded to 335 PA after Castro's injury, but "Promoted to majors by necessity, trial by fire" didn't seem like an accurate description his role that season.

[nicksaviking]

I know Jeffers has the rep of the better defensive catcher, but when it comes to stealing pitches, I really hate watching Jeffers catch. His movements are so obvious. I've seen a couple should-be strikes on the corner of the zone that Jeffers yanked right into the middle of the zone in what was such an obvious load of crap that he tricked the umpire into assuming it was a ball.

 

Either way, if there was going to be a weak link offensively, that's supposed to be the catcher. I want someone to start hitting and I could care less which of the two catchers stepped up, but this probably wouldn't be such a desperate topic if Kepler, Polanco, Sano and Cave weren't hitting so poorly while also playing positions that historically house your best hitters.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

When it comes to offensive performance in 2021 so far, Garver is near the middle of the pack in the AL. 

I echo Chief's concern with this characterization of Garver's offense.

 

Among Fangraphs qualified catchers, top 15 by PA in the AL, Garver's wRC+ ranks 12th. Closer to the bottom than the middle in terms of rank. Garver's is 52 is closer to 14th than to the median of this group (89).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=40&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=18,d

 

Expand that to all of MLB, and Garver is 25th among the top 30 catchers by PA. Median jumps to 99 wRC+ too.

 

If you expand that lists to include backups, Garver's relative rank rises a bit: 40th out of the top 60 in MLB. But his 52 wRC+ is actually closer to 51st than to the median 87 of that group.

[twinbythebay]

 

I echo Chief's concern with this characterization of Garver's offense.

 

Among Fangraphs qualified catchers, top 15 by PA in the AL, Garver's wRC+ ranks 12th. Closer to the bottom than the middle in terms of rank. Garver's is 52 is closer to 14th than to the median of this group (89).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=40&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=18,d

 

Expand that to all of MLB, and Garver is 25th among the top 30 catchers by PA. Median jumps to 99 wRC+ too.

 

If you expand that lists to include backups, Garver's relative rank rises a bit: 40th out of the top 60 in MLB. But his 52 wRC+ is actually closer to 51st than to the median 87 of that group.

Not only this, but his -0.2 fWAR indicates that his value has been below that of a replacement-level player so far this season. The sample is admittedly small, but neither underlying metrics nor the eye test offer much hope that a turnaround is imminent. The dropoff since 2019 has been so drastic that it's hard to imagine there isn't some sort of lingering injury...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Garver's role expanded to 335 PA after Castro's injury, but "Promoted to majors by necessity, trial by fire" didn't seem like an accurate description his role that season.

Again, by “trial by fire” I was thinking of his actual catching skills not being ready

 

I will get you into the run prevention mindset one of these days

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

One thing they might want to try to get Garver out of his funk, if the right pitcher is on the mound, is to have the whole lineup take the first pitch, then when Garver’s spot comes up 7th or 8th, let him sit on a first pitch fastball and tell Garver just to swing easy and whack it up the middle.

[rdehring]

Yes, the catcher position right now is a complete black hole. And what is puzzling is that most of us thought the Twins had struck gold with both of these guys. 

 

What I hope doesn't happen is that the Twins bring up Rortvedt. He could be the Twins long-term answer, but he needs most or all of 2021 in AA and AAA after not playing at all last year. Let the kid develop before bringing him up.

[Dodecahedron]

 

Garver is "near the middle of the pack in the AL" offensively?

58 OPS+

That's not near the middle.

 

He is just below the middle among catchers.

 

Regarding catching defense, yes he is near the middle. But, SSS.

[Dodecahedron]

 

I echo Chief's concern with this characterization of Garver's offense.

 

Among Fangraphs qualified catchers, top 15 by PA in the AL, Garver's wRC+ ranks 12th. Closer to the bottom than the middle in terms of rank. Garver's is 52 is closer to 14th than to the median of this group (89).

 

Garver is qualified? The site I looked at did not think so.

In any case, I object to the my classification of "in the middle" as being "at the exact midpoint." Yes, he is "closer to the bottom" but he is still in the middle of the pack and only one or two spots from the middle. There are 6-8 catchers with more at bats and games than Garver who are ranked much worse in addition to the riffraff catchers in the bottom third.

I appreciate you looking at data before responding, don't get me wrong. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Garver is qualified? The site I looked at did not think so.

"Qualified" meaning they qualify as catchers per Fangraphs in the link I shared. Not qualified for the batting title.

 

Since so few catchers qualify for the batting title, I used Fangraphs position criteria first, then sorted those guys by PA.

 

 

In any case, I object to the my classification of "in the middle" as being "at the exact midpoint." Yes, he is "closer to the bottom" but he is still in the middle of the pack and only one or two spots from the middle.

I certainly didn't claim that it had to be at the exact midpoint.

 

I said, if you rank 12th out of 15, and you are actually closer to ranking 14th than you are to the median value, I don't think it's appropriate to characterize that as "middle of the pack". Or else the phrase has no real value.

 

(And that's just AL-only, which is probably unnecessarily limiting in this context. Garver is 25th out of 30 in MLB and even further away from the median.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There are 6-8 catchers with more at bats and games than Garver who are ranked much worse

I'm curious how you arrived at that figure. Fangraphs only shows two such catchers in 2021 (more PA or G or AB than Garver, with a worse wRC+) -- d'Arnaud (ATL) and Torrens (SEA):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,6,61&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=5,d

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Not only this, but his -0.2 fWAR indicates that his value has been below that of a replacement-level player so far this season. The sample is admittedly small, but neither underlying metrics nor the eye test offer much hope that a turnaround is imminent. The dropoff since 2019 has been so drastic that it's hard to imagine there isn't some sort of lingering injury...

 

That fWAR would be for all hitters, regardless of position though, no?  In reality, catchers are so much harder to find that if you want to use WAR, it should be limited to only catchers.  66 guys qualify as catchers on fangraphs, and less than half (31/63) have positive WAR.  

[Dodecahedron]

 

"Qualified" meaning they qualify as catchers per Fangraphs in the link I shared. Not qualified for the batting title.

 

Since so few catchers qualify for the batting title, I used Fangraphs position criteria first, then sorted those guys by PA.

 

 

I certainly didn't claim that it had to be at the exact midpoint.

 

I said, if you rank 12th out of 15, and you are actually closer to ranking 14th than you are to the median value, I don't think it's appropriate to characterize that as "middle of the pack". Or else the phrase has no real value.

 

(And that's just AL-only, which is probably unnecessarily limiting in this context. Garver is 25th out of 30 in MLB and even further away from the median.)

 

Now I am even more confused. There are more than 15 catchers in the AL and a lot more than 30 in the MLB. Are you looking at team stats? 

 

There are 32 players who have caught a game in the AL. This makes sense as teams carry around two catchers and the season is young. Garver's OPS has him at #19. The middle would be #16. My eyeballs tell me that about half of the catchers below him are starters, but also about half of the catchers above him are starters. No, I did not manually count to confirm.

 

In the MLB, there are 65 catchers. This number also makes sense. Garver is #42. Not great, but still in the middle third (albeit just barely). Yes, he is closer to the middle than the bottom.

 

For a three-week old season, I'm thinking these numbers suck but they're not a good reason to make changes, unless he is injured.

 

Look, I am not questioning that Garver needs to get better and fast. However, I don't like the, "His good year was a fluke, I KNEW IT!" going around. Give the guy a chance. He performed well in the minors, well enough to be a very good hitting catcher, but it clearly takes him time to get warm. He has barely played for 2 years.