Josh Hader?

[cmoss84]

Is now the time to go after Hader? How much would he cost? Our bullpen has obviously been fantastic, but wouldn't it be nice to have another dominant lefty who can come in at any time? Pitching wins in playoffs. Period.

He is under contract for age 26-29 seasons, so he will be very expensive. Worth it?

 

Mil just had Cain opt out. Braun is old and hurt. Yelich is 1-27. Maybe they would kick the tires on trading him?

[AlwaysinModeration]

It would cost more than Brusdar.

[ashbury]

It would cost more than Brusdar.

Doubtful the Dodgers would be willing to chip in on our behalf.

 

[tvagle]

 

Doubtful the Dodgers would be willing to chip in on our behalf.
 

You never know

[FlauerPauer]

Would he be more expensive than a top line starter?

 

Rogers

Hader

May

Duffey

Clippard

Romo

 

You can pretty much make any game a 6 inning game. 

 

I don't know if you give up a Lewis, Kiriloff, or Balazovic for a guy who would possibly throw 80 innings a year, probably less with the Twins. 

 

Maybe Larnach, Jeffers, and Thorpe get it done? Three top 10 guys would be a decent haul for the Brewers. According to mlb.com, the Brewers have the worst minor league system. Those three guys would instantly boost their system. Thorpe is already in the majors, Larnach could probably vie for a spot on some teams and would most likely be in multiple lineups next year, and Jeffers is considered by many to be close to major league ready.

 

Baseball trade values says that this is a bit of an overpay for the Twins, but probably would be needed to get the Brewers to say yes. Also still leaves a ton of ammunition to acquire a top line starter.

 

[Vanimal46]

Mark DeRosa on MLB Network proposed this hypothetical trade this morning. I don’t think the Twins do it, but probably not an unreasonable ask for 3 controlled years of Hader.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mark DeRosa on MLB Network proposed this hypothetical trade this morning. I don’t think the Twins do it, but probably not an unreasonable ask for 3 controlled years of Hader.

That's a completely unreasonable ask because of Jeffers. He's going to rate very highly on upcoming lists.

[ashbury]

Mark DeRosa on MLB Network proposed this hypothetical trade this morning. I don’t think the Twins do it, but probably not an unreasonable ask for 3 controlled years of Hader.

Interesting. My first reaction is No Way. But Hader is pretty elite. It's surely not wrong to expect it would take a hefty offer to pry him away.

 

With regard to Rooker being part of that lever, I'm not sure if the Brewers would value him. They have a corner outfield prospect named Tristen Lutz who profiles pretty similarly as a righty bat but with perhaps better defense. Lutz was only 20 last season but was already at high-A and managing to hold his own, so with Yelich under contract until the heat death of the universe, I'm not quite sure what use Milwaukee would envision for Rooker beyond perhaps even one season. "Heir apparent at first base" is a shaky designation, as organizations are always shifting a good bat with a shaky glove to that spot.

 

[Vanimal46]

That's a completely unreasonable ask because of Jeffers. He's going to rate very highly on upcoming lists.

Teams pay crazy prices for elite relievers. Not saying the Twins do it, but that kind of ask by the Brewers isn’t unreasonable.

 

Chapman for Torres + 3 prospects, Diaz for Kelenic and 2 other top 30 prospects, Andrew Miller for Frazier + 3 prospects. Hell, even Ramos for Capps.

[Doctor Gast]

 

Mark DeRosa on MLB Network proposed this hypothetical trade this morning. I don’t think the Twins do it, but probably not an unreasonable ask for 3 controlled years of Hader.

3    near Majors prospects, where Twins have a major to minor need. I would hate to see them trade any of them for anyone, especially Lewis. Hader isn`t a big need, he could come in handy in the PS but by then I think we could solve any BP problems internally w/o mortgaging our definite    future. They`d be totally crazy to consider this outrageous trade. I`d consider a trade if it`d involve players which we have an abundance of prospects to fill in handily.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Teams pay crazy prices for elite relievers. Not saying the Twins do it, but that kind of ask by the Brewers isn’t unreasonable.

 

Chapman for Torres + 3 prospects, Diaz for Kelenic and 2 other top 30 prospects, Andrew Miller for Frazier + 3 prospects. Hell, even Ramos for Capps.

I think baseball has changed quite a bit since most of those traded, excepting the Mets, who have a solid track record of being lunatics.

 

That’s way too much to pay for Hader. Besides, is the bullpen even the Twins’ biggest concern right now? I’m more concerned about a RH outfield bat.

[jun]

 

Is now the time to go after Hader? How much would he cost? Our bullpen has obviously been fantastic, but wouldn't it be nice to have another dominant lefty who can come in at any time? Pitching wins in playoffs. Period.
He is under contract for age 26-29 seasons, so he will be very expensive. Worth it?

Mil just had Cain opt out. Braun is old and hurt. Yelich is 1-27. Maybe they would kick the tires on trading him?

Hader's fastball velocity is way down! Jeffers and Thorpe for Hader might be reasonable. I would not trade anything more than that.

[Danchat]

If we’re going after a big trade, I’d prefer a starter over a reliever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If we’re going after a big trade, I’d prefer a starter over a reliever.

This is my problem with this (IMO lazy) analysis from MLBN.

 

The reason the Twins' bullpen looks weak right now is because most of their rotation crashed and burned to the IL the first week of the season. That means the Twins are running a couple of bullpen games a week.

 

Two bullpen games a week will tax literally any bullpen in baseball.

 

I'm perfectly content with a bullpen of Rogers, Duffey, Romo, May, Clippard, and Alcala.

 

So, you either believe the Twins need to wait until the rotation comes back or, if you believe the rotation will not return, then they need to trade for a starter. Either way, trading so much for a bullpen arm makes little sense unless one holds the very strange opinion that the road to success includes 40% of your games being bullpen games.

[Vanimal46]

I think baseball has changed quite a bit since most of those traded, excepting the Mets, who have a solid track record of being lunatics.

 

That’s way too much to pay for Hader. Besides, is the bullpen even the Twins’ biggest concern right now? I’m more concerned about a RH outfield bat.

It’s possible the prices have changed. We haven’t seen an elite reliever traded in a while to know for sure.

 

I agree the bullpen isn’t the biggest concern. It certainly doesn’t hurt to have as many options as possible in case of injury or performance imploding.

[ashbury]

I'm perfectly content with a bullpen of Rogers, Duffey, Romo, May, Clippard, and Alcala.

I'm not.

 

Mind, my reaction to the trade proposal (which is awfully steep if it includes Lewis plus another likely solid prospect at catcher) isn't knee-jerk to the current bullpen status.

 

I see Hader as simply at a higher plane of talent than anyone currently on the staff. All our guys stand to fatten up on the mediocre opposition met during the regular season, but then stop being shutdown when facing the caliber of hitters you see in the post-season. Of course, Hader had that shocking and catastrophic 2019 postseason game against Washington - after a pretty nifty 2018 - so maybe I overrate him. But even Mariano Rivera has given up a World Series run or two.

 

If a rumor like this has any relation to reality, you have to at least explore it. Elite talent should always be the goal, and this one is under team control for a while yet. I'm dubious about the reality, and I'm dubious we can put together a package palatable to Milwaukee and something we could stomach.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would love to see the team pick up a RH hitting fourth OF. I'm definitely souring on Cave and I don't think Wade will ever be more than a 4th OF with a good OBP and not a lot else. Is there anyone out there that might be available?

I think Cave is pretty great as a fourth OF option... except on the Twins because of his LH overlap with both Kepler and Rosario.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not.

 

Mind, my reaction to the trade proposal (which is awfully steep if it includes Lewis plus another likely solid prospect at catcher) isn't knee-jerk to the current bullpen status.

 

I see Hader as simply at a higher plane of talent than anyone currently on the staff. All our guys stand to fatten up on the mediocre opposition met during the regular season, but then stop being shutdown when facing the caliber of hitters you see in the post-season. Of course, Hader had that shocking and catastrophic 2019 postseason game against Washington - after a pretty nifty 2018 - so maybe I overrate him. But even Mariano Rivera has given up World Series run or two.

 

If a rumor like this has any relation to reality, you have to at least explore it. Elite talent should always be the goal, and this one is under team control for a while yet. I'm dubious about the reality, and I'm dubious we can put together a package palatable to Milwaukee and something we could stomach.

Hader is an elite arm, better than probably everyone on the Twins staff. And acquiring elite talent should always be a priority... but not anywhere near that price tag.

 

When I said "perfectly content", what I really meant was "happy enough to not loot half the farm for a single reliever, no matter how good he may be".

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With regard to Rooker being part of that lever, I'm not sure if the Brewers would value him. They have a corner outfield prospect named Tristen Lutz who profiles pretty similarly as a righty bat but with perhaps better defense. Lutz was only 20 last season but was already at high-A and managing to hold his own, so with Yelich under contract until the heat death of the universe, I'm not quite sure what use Milwaukee would envision for Rooker beyond perhaps even one season. "Heir apparent at first base" is a shaky designation, as organizations are always shifting a good bat with a shaky glove to that spot.

 

 

As the third piece in the deal, after two up-the-middle guys as pieces 1 & 2, I don't think position will be too important to Milwaukee. Plus, they will likely have a DH going forward, and Braun's contract is up this year, etc.

[ashbury]

As the third piece in the deal, after two up-the-middle guys as pieces 1 & 2, I don't think position will be too important to Milwaukee. Plus, they will likely have a DH going forward, and Braun's contract is up this year, etc.

They'll want a pitching lottery ticket as the third piece. Everyone always demands pitching, especially when trading away pitching.

 

But now I'm back to my skepticism over the whole "use top draft picks for position players for their greater certainty and then trade them for pitchers" strategy our FO seemed to have adopted, which worked out so well when we acquired Maeda.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

FWIW, this site has Lewis nearly equal to Hader by himself:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Of course, we'd likely have to go beyond, to motivate Milwaukee to finish the deal. But Lewis a very, very good start; if you're leading with Lewis, you can likely find another piece or two in your system that Milwaukee would want and you don't mind giving up.

 

Name Position MTV ($Ms)

Lewis SS 54
Jeffers C 13.1
Rooker 1B 4.5

Total Value: 71.60

 

Name Position MTV ($Ms)
Hader LHRP 56.4

[Vanimal46]

 

FWIW, this site has Lewis nearly equal to Hader by himself:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

Of course, we'd likely have to go beyond, to motivate Milwaukee to finish the deal. But Lewis a very, very good start; if you're leading with Lewis, you can likely find another piece or two in your system that Milwaukee would want and you don't mind giving up.

 

Name Position MTV ($Ms)

Lewis SS 54
Jeffers C 13.1
Rooker 1B 4.5

Total Value: 71.60

 

Name Position MTV ($Ms)
Hader LHRP 56.4

 

Looks like they need to update that value for Jeffers. No way he's worth 40 points lower than Lewis however they determine the points. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Looks like they need to update that value for Jeffers. No way he's worth 40 points lower than Lewis however they determine the points. 

I like Jeffers too, but isn't he still a bit of a "dark horse" in prospect value?

 

Fangraphs still has Lewis as the #11 prospect in baseball, 60 FV, compared to Jeffers at 45+ FV (basically in a 50-way tie in the 120-170 range).

 

Of course, that doesn't mean the Twins have to value him like that, but baseballtradevalues.com isn't necessarily wrong in assigning that value to him right now either.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I like Jeffers too, but isn't he still a bit of a "dark horse" in prospect value?

 

Fangraphs still has Lewis as the #11 prospect in baseball, 60 FV, compared to Jeffers at 45+ FV (basically in a 50-way tie in the 120-170 range).

 

Of course, that doesn't mean the Twins have to value him like that, but baseballtradevalues.com isn't necessarily wrong in assigning that value to him right now either.

I don’t think he should be considered a dark horse at this point. He was highly regarded as a hitter and posted very good numbers advancing from rookie ball to AA in just two seasons.

 

The big knock on him was that few viewed him as an MLB catcher.

 

His defense is now so good he’s considered the best defensive catcher in the Twins org and scouting of his bat hasn’t really changed.

 

That’s a *really* valuable player. His largest weakness, and it was a big one, has turned into a positive and he plays the most important defensive position on the field.

[Shaitan]

If anything, I think the cost for elite relievers has gone up.

 

Bullpen games are the new norm and some relievers give you 5 IP per week, just like a starter does.

[IndianaTwin]

I’m not going to pay much attention to a trade proposal that starts with “Mark DeRosa of MLB Network proposed...” 

[TopGunn#22]

There's no way the Twins should include Lewis in that deal.  Since Kiriloff and Larnach are duplicates of each other, one is probably going to have to be dealt at some time, and that's even after they trade Rosario.  

[a-wan]

Does Hader hit lefty pitching?

[spanman2]

 

Mark DeRosa on MLB Network proposed this hypothetical trade this morning. I don’t think the Twins do it, but probably not an unreasonable ask for 3 controlled years of Hader.

If that did occur it would certainly say the Twins are all in.  That would be a statement trade for certain.

[mike8791]

Normally, we Twins fans would probably ignore such trial balloons prior to the trade deadline.  After all, this FO has shown little interest in taking big risks in the trade mart.  And yet, with Falvey making noises about "going all in" this year(presumably surpassing our last 28 years of futility in the playoffs), it's fun to consider whether or not they should agressively pursue Hader.  Let's leave the question whether maximum pursuit of a World C in an abbreviated 60 game season is desirable, considering how tainted such a championship might be viewed.  For us fans starved  for any deep advancement into the playoffs, such an accomplishment even in this strange season would no doubt be warmly welcomed.

 

The first question that comes to mind is whether we should be  adding to the rotation or the bullpen.  For brevity sake, we'll leave out lineup additions even though the offense has been disappointing;  if the offense doesn't return at least to the norm, then any hopes for a deep playoff run are greatly diminished no matter who we add.

 

The rotation, while still lacking in an ace, looks the best its been since the peak of the Santana/Liriano days.  With reinforcements like Pineda and Odo coming soon, this rotation is solid enough, with Maeda and possibly Pineda a genuine 1-2 punch in the playoffs. Slotting Berrios in as a #4 or 5 gives this fan much greater confidence in a short playoff series!  So, no, the rotation should be left alone.

 

At first glance, same could be said for the bullpen, which has been mainly solid this year.  However, on closer inspection, things may not be as advertised.  The biggest concern is Rogers, of course.  His numbers are alarming, especially when you look at number of losses + BS he's had.  Consistency among elite relievers is rare and certainly the FO should be concerned enough as we enter the second half of the "season".  In a tight central division, how many more blown saves can this team afford?  And what internal replacements are available.  Many suggest Duffy or May, but their closer experience is very limited and to rely on one or two would be very risky. 

 

Hence, yes, go all in for Hader - for this year and the future.  We currently have no one at his level.  His presence would make this bullpen one to fear in a short playoff series when starters rarely go beyond the 6th.  Hader, backed up by Rogers, May and Duffy, with Romo and Clippard as fill-ins would make the Twins a very formidable opponent, even against the top offenses.

 

We all know an overpayment would be necessary.  I would start by giving up from strength - either Kiriloff or Larnach, add in a top pitching prospect like Alcala, Duran, or Balozivic, and two second tier prospects like Rooker, Chalmers or even Thorpe, depending on Brewer needs.  I would not trade Jeffers; with Garver coming back to earth, he is probably our most valuable prospect as of now.  With the erratic play of Arraez, I would be reluctant to trade Lewis, but if he would get the deal done, I would consider it.  It will definitely take at least two top 10 prospects and maybe three.  Granted,  this is unlikely to occur, but if the Twins are going to make a trade, this is the one to do!