Coronavirus

[akmanak]

I will refrain from name calling with that note I will point out a couple of frustrating things.

 

We have a senator who test positive but yet does not self quarantine. Mentions that he didn't have too.

 

We have people flocking to the California beaches disregarding any type of suggestions put into place about spreading the virus.

 

We have a president who seems to only care about the economy and not the actual spread of the virus.

 

The list goes on. I just wanted to point out that if our leader and congressmen are not taking the CDC seriously, do you really think the general public is?

[Craig Arko]

[Squirrel]

The governor of FL has been blasted in the media for not taking actions when called upon to close beaches in Florida. He has now but pretty late. It was an economic decision. That seems to be driving all the decision making.

[glunn]

Maybe this will help a little --

 

[stringer bell]

Trump appears to want to relax “shelter in place” in two weeks. Oh my!

[PseudoSABR]

 

Trump appears to want to relax “shelter in place” in two weeks. Oh my!

The whole the cure is worse the disease is some of the most vile rhetoric I've heard.  Basically he's suggesting that the economic cost isn't worth saving that many lives.  

 

Don't agree with this guy often but:

[Squirrel]

Faucet just needs to go rogue.

[ashbury]

Faucet just needs to go rogue.

Spellcheck apparently went rogue. Fauci, I presume? Or is Faucet the singular in Italian, and you want to leave the rest of his family out of the controversy?

[Squirrel]

Spellcheck apparently went rogue. Fauci, I presume? Or is Faucet the singular in Italian, and you want to leave the rest of his family out of the controversy?

Lol, yes.

[stringer bell]

Just listened to Cuomo speak on the crisis in NY. He is saying that unless they get more ventilators to NY, people will die (needlessly).

 

He is pleading for the federal government to release their stockpile of ventilators and to invoke the act which requires companies to produce specified equipment.

[Squirrel]

Just listened to Cuomo speak on the crisis in NY. He is saying that unless they get more ventilators to NY, people will die (needlessly).

He is pleading for the federal government to release their stockpile of ventilators and to invoke the act which requires companies to produce specified equipment.

The president told states to get their own medical supplies, and then the U.S. outbids the contracts so the states still can’t get needed supplies. And Trump has refused to tell these manufacturers to ramp up production, as he has the authority to do. I don’t get it it.

[biggentleben]

 

The president told states to get their own medical supplies, and then the U.S. outbids the contracts so the states still can’t get needed supplies. And Trump has refused to tell these manufacturers to ramp up production, as he has the authority to do. I don’t get it it.

 

$$$

[Craig Arko]

 

I’m not going to be popular with this opinion, but the level of hysteria here does not match what the virus does and does not do. I'd like to get back to the math for a second. Corona is, in terms of kill rate, is not even as dangerous as the flu. The big difference between Corona and the flu though is that most of us are immune to a number of different flu strains and that flu manifests itself quicker. In other words, if I get the flu, I'm less likely to pass it on. Since there's no natural immunity to Corona more people are going to get it. To add to it, it also is quite harmless to pretty much anyone under 70, and the younger you are, the less likely you are to even know you're sick. There are exceptions of course, but the reality is that the major repercussions to the disease is mainly seen in the elderly. I don't mean to demean that, but the way we've gone about handling is going to be far worse in the long run. Yes, the volume of deaths will be higher, and there's no real way to prevent the deaths (flattening the curve pushes the cases out over time, but it will not prevent most of the fatalities. It might result in better care for some and few less deaths, but the virus will get its due)…

 

No one is talking nearly enough about the other trade off. I travel a lot for work. Last week, on my last trip for the foreseeable future, I got to talk to one of the hotel staffers that I've gotten to know over the years. He's been let go indefinitely. He's a bar tender. He lives off of tips. His wife graduated school. He lives check to check and he has nothing. Anyone in hospitality is there right now, along with manufacturing, and now pretty much any non-grocery commercial retail. The contractor I just hired to do my kitchen is in the same boat. He cannot do the job because of global quarantines. He and his workers are now unemployed, and depending on how quickly things recover, jobs like mine are quite possibly gone now. He won’t be able to simply ramp back up because many of his customers will no longer have the money to spend when the quarantine is lifted. We live in a society that as a whole doesn't save, nor due to low interest rates is it incentivized to save. People like me have resources and can burn through them to an extent, but that's the exception more than the norm. Rents are still due. Mortgages are still due. People still need to eat and pay utilities. They cannot do that without jobs. Blue collar America is practically shut down right now, and they are the ones most harmed by that…and a $1500 check isn’t going to fix that. It might get their rent or groceries paid for a month, perhaps even utilities. But that’s it. The economic toll to this will be far worse than the than the medical toll from the virus itself. Even in a 1st world nation such as ours, crime rates will skyrocket if this lasts for any length of time. People need to eat and will do whatever they feel they need to do so they can feed their families. That’s already started, and if this is prolonged, you’ll see riots and crime the likes of which none of us have seen in our lifetimes. People do desperate things when they are hungry, and our safety nets are not capable of handing this kind of surge.

 

And back to math, but what no one saying when it comes to flattening the curve is that it also dramatically extends the length of time needed to get the virus under control. If natural selection plays its course, you have a couple weeks of hell, a relatively uninterrupted economy, and everything is back to normal in a reasonable period of time. But the course of action we are taking will require social distancing to go on for months until this thing has run its course. I’m not trying to be insensitive or cold, but it’s a reality that these types of things will happen and that there’s another much more dangerous side people are ignoring by playing into this hysteria. The other side to this is things like the bond markets collapsing. That’s what the FED is trying to prevent right now, and if those go, nations will collapse. Think about that for a second when a country’s currency is suddenly worthless. You think death tolls were bad then? This could make us long for the financial problems of 2008.  As it is, any kind of length to this will almost certainly make them return. The housing market will come to a halt. People who lost their jobs will lose their homes. Your TBTFs will once again likely be in that same situation if enough people default on their mortgages. The longer we operate at a full stop, the longer it takes things to spin back up.

 

What should have been done is to quarantine the high risk people and to start using common sense with working from home (it took this for my wife’s company to finally allow it as an example, even though almost all of her job could be done from here) and business travel.  Quarantining sooner would not have fixed this, as the virus will still spread, just at a slower pace. The moment those quarantines are lifted, it will start spreading rapidly again. A much more surgical approach to this would have still had some economic impact (namely in the travel industry), but not a full stop, and it would have allowed the virus to infect the people capable of fighting it off and create a nice herd immunity going forward. I could see this scenario if the virus had a much higher kill rate. But reality is that it doesn’t. We’ve overreacted.

 

I get being mad; but being mad as hell at the government for not doing enough is the wrong thing to do here. You should start with the medical system as a whole...and no, not the “it should be free” crap. I get being upset about high prices we see in America, but the shortages of beds and personnel have more to do with a system designed to keep them in short supply and a system that's designed to hide costs from the consumer, something that single payer will not fix. This is a case where hospital systems have failed to capacity plan, and it's not the first, nor will it be the last time that some event happens that overloads capacity. There are literally empty hotels right next to hospitals that for some minor investments in accessibility could have been used for overflow, and in some cases not even that. For all the money that has been stolen from us in a rigged system, medical providers could have invested in stockpiling necessary equipment like the CDC does (my wife used to work for a company that warehoused CDC equipment, but it doesn't have enough for the entire country). But hey, they have granite lobbies and are highly profitable.  I’m digressing a bit, but people are looking at this all wrong. One week of stoppage has already triggered a recession. If this lasts for any length of time, there’s going to be a lot worse things to worry about than Covid 19.

How many dead would you consider to be acceptable losses?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m not going to be popular with this opinion, but the level of hysteria here does not match what the virus does and does not do. I'd like to get back to the math for a second. Corona is, in terms of kill rate, is not even as dangerous as the flu. The big difference between Corona and the flu though is that most of us are immune to a number of different flu strains and that flu manifests itself quicker. In other words, if I get the flu, I'm less likely to pass it on. Since there's no natural immunity to Corona more people are going to get it. To add to it, it also is quite harmless to pretty much anyone under 70, and the younger you are, the less likely you are to even know you're sick. There are exceptions of course, but the reality is that the major repercussions to the disease is mainly seen in the elderly. I don't mean to demean that, but the way we've gone about handling is going to be far worse in the long run. Yes, the volume of deaths will be higher, and there's no real way to prevent the deaths (flattening the curve pushes the cases out over time, but it will not prevent most of the fatalities. It might result in better care for some and few less deaths, but the virus will get its due)…

 

No one is talking nearly enough about the other trade off. I travel a lot for work. Last week, on my last trip for the foreseeable future, I got to talk to one of the hotel staffers that I've gotten to know over the years. He's been let go indefinitely. He's a bar tender. He lives off of tips. His wife graduated school. He lives check to check and he has nothing. Anyone in hospitality is there right now, along with manufacturing, and now pretty much any non-grocery commercial retail. The contractor I just hired to do my kitchen is in the same boat. He cannot do the job because of global quarantines. He and his workers are now unemployed, and depending on how quickly things recover, jobs like mine are quite possibly gone now. He won’t be able to simply ramp back up because many of his customers will no longer have the money to spend when the quarantine is lifted. We live in a society that as a whole doesn't save, nor due to low interest rates is it incentivized to save. People like me have resources and can burn through them to an extent, but that's the exception more than the norm. Rents are still due. Mortgages are still due. People still need to eat and pay utilities. They cannot do that without jobs. Blue collar America is practically shut down right now, and they are the ones most harmed by that…and a $1500 check isn’t going to fix that. It might get their rent or groceries paid for a month, perhaps even utilities. But that’s it. The economic toll to this will be far worse than the than the medical toll from the virus itself. Even in a 1st world nation such as ours, crime rates will skyrocket if this lasts for any length of time. People need to eat and will do whatever they feel they need to do so they can feed their families. That’s already started, and if this is prolonged, you’ll see riots and crime the likes of which none of us have seen in our lifetimes. People do desperate things when they are hungry, and our safety nets are not capable of handing this kind of surge.

 

And back to math, but what no one saying when it comes to flattening the curve is that it also dramatically extends the length of time needed to get the virus under control. If natural selection plays its course, you have a couple weeks of hell, a relatively uninterrupted economy, and everything is back to normal in a reasonable period of time. But the course of action we are taking will require social distancing to go on for months until this thing has run its course. I’m not trying to be insensitive or cold, but it’s a reality that these types of things will happen and that there’s another much more dangerous side people are ignoring by playing into this hysteria. The other side to this is things like the bond markets collapsing. That’s what the FED is trying to prevent right now, and if those go, nations will collapse. Think about that for a second when a country’s currency is suddenly worthless. You think death tolls were bad then? This could make us long for the financial problems of 2008. As it is, any kind of length to this will almost certainly make them return. The housing market will come to a halt. People who lost their jobs will lose their homes. Your TBTFs will once again likely be in that same situation if enough people default on their mortgages. The longer we operate at a full stop, the longer it takes things to spin back up.

 

What should have been done is to quarantine the high risk people and to start using common sense with working from home (it took this for my wife’s company to finally allow it as an example, even though almost all of her job could be done from here) and business travel. Quarantining sooner would not have fixed this, as the virus will still spread, just at a slower pace. The moment those quarantines are lifted, it will start spreading rapidly again. A much more surgical approach to this would have still had some economic impact (namely in the travel industry), but not a full stop, and it would have allowed the virus to infect the people capable of fighting it off and create a nice herd immunity going forward. I could see this scenario if the virus had a much higher kill rate. But reality is that it doesn’t. We’ve overreacted.

 

I get being mad; but being mad as hell at the government for not doing enough is the wrong thing to do here. You should start with the medical system as a whole...and no, not the “it should be free” crap. I get being upset about high prices we see in America, but the shortages of beds and personnel have more to do with a system designed to keep them in short supply and a system that's designed to hide costs from the consumer, something that single payer will not fix. This is a case where hospital systems have failed to capacity plan, and it's not the first, nor will it be the last time that some event happens that overloads capacity. There are literally empty hotels right next to hospitals that for some minor investments in accessibility could have been used for overflow, and in some cases not even that. For all the money that has been stolen from us in a rigged system, medical providers could have invested in stockpiling necessary equipment like the CDC does (my wife used to work for a company that warehoused CDC equipment, but it doesn't have enough for the entire country). But hey, they have granite lobbies and are highly profitable. I’m digressing a bit, but people are looking at this all wrong. One week of stoppage has already triggered a recession. If this lasts for any length of time, there’s going to be a lot worse things to worry about than Covid 19.

Among seniors, hospitalization rate is something like 30%, mortality rate is 10%. Seniors comprise 13% of the US population.

 

That’s putting 12 million people in hospitals where there are only a million beds. Allowing 4 million people to suffer and die. Plus however many who would die from normal day to day things but couldn’t get treatment...

 

Seniors also comprise the vast majority of healthcare spending in this economy. Healthcare is 18% of GDP. What happens to our economy when 4 million people stop renewing their prescriptions and stop paying their supplemental Medicare insurance? Plus all those people who died from simple medical issues but couldn’t get treatment?

 

It no longer is a temporary economic issue, it’s a permanent one.

 

One way, or another, the toll on our economy is going to be paid.

[PseudoSABR]

Yes, the volume of deaths will be higher, and there's no real way to prevent the deaths (flattening the curve pushes the cases out over time, but it will not prevent most of the fatalities. It might result in better care for some and few less deaths, but the virus will get its due)…

 

This wrong, dangerous and irresponsible. 1) Covid-19 is far more deadly than the flu at a mortality rate anywhere between 1 to 3.5% (which would represent between 3-12 million Americans); the CDC says the flu last year killed 2 in 100,000 people (6500 total deaths); 2) flattening the curve absolutely saves lives in two ways a) it keeps us within the healht care capacity so that those who need ventilators and treatment get them, if the healthcare system is overrun it won't be people with corona who will die, anybody needing life-saving treatment for anything will be at risk b ) it buys time for a vaccine, that's where the whole 18 mos comes from.

 

I lived off tips for nearly a decade and libertarians like you helped keep me from getting healthcare and even a fair wage. So spare me the anecdote of the poor bartenders of the world.

 

And honestly, we can see exposed in these kind of arguments, why people oppose taking preventive measures to change the climate. It's not that they don't believe in global warming, it's simply that the economy is more important than the earth/our lives.

[Squirrel]

Among seniors, hospitalization rate is something like 30%, mortality rate is 10%. Seniors comprise 13% of the US population.

That’s putting 12 million people in hospitals where there are only a million beds. Allowing 4 million people to suffer and die. Plus however many who would die from normal day to day things but couldn’t get treatment...

Seniors also comprise the vast majority of healthcare spending in this economy. Healthcare is 18% of GDP. What happens to our economy when 4 million people stop renewing their prescriptions and stop paying their supplemental Medicare insurance? Plus all those people who died from simple medical issues but couldn’t get treatment?

It no longer is a temporary economic issue, it’s a permanent one.

One way, or another, the toll on our economy is going to be paid.

Ah, math ...

[Squirrel]

And now I am out of work through May 10. No word on salary reductions or if I will still get anything at all, but our medical benefits will be maintained. As long as I don’t have to go on COBRA, I’ll be fine with my savings, which is far better than most. Given my industry, as hard hit as hospitality, given the number of self-employed musicians out there, it’s going to be rough for many. I’m doubtful we’ll be back in May, even, and likely out until September. Even then, audiences will be leery to return. My industry will feel lingering affects for a while.

 

My sister is a doctor and my niece works for a small pharma company who is doing some major drug testing for the Coronavirus. Both have ‘insider info’ but particularly my niece... stay at home is the order. I trust people with medical and scientific knowledge. In my opinion, that is not hysteria, but being safe, practical and following protocols. Yes, it’s inconvenient and hardships will be felt economically, but I think it’s the right thing to do. I’ve never been worried for myself, but I do not want to pass anything onto anyone else. As sconnie pointed out, hardship will be felt regardless. I’d rather not gamble with human lives. The Senate needs to get its act together and stop with the half a trillion dollars to big business with no questions asked or answered, no conditions, no oversight, and no guarantee for employees.

 

I feel angry and worried, but not hysterical. I think my emotions are justified given how this all has unraveled. Our government KNEW and was warned back in January the severity of this. And did nothing. People will die. People already have. What lives might have been spared, we’ll never know. Because they did, and are still doing, nothing ... but putting up roadblocks to necessary aid. At this point, I believe it’s intentional.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The one thing I took from diehard’s post (if forced to narrow it down to one thing) is that there are social costs to the other side of this, that are unknown but surely just as grave. I don’t agree with all of the information in his post, nor do I find myself really agreeing with much of anyone’s posts here, even my own earlier posts. Because I think statistics are almost meaningless and unknowable right now.

 

[PseudoSABR]

 

 Because I think statistics are almost meaningless and unknowable right now.

I strongly disagree. Yes, because testing is a complete fail, the current collected and reported cases may not be representative of it's impact of the population as a whole.  But the statistics are actual factual points of data. Although not completely representative, we can observe rates of growth over, now, what is large periods of time.  Are you not alarmed by the exponential growth in reported cases in New York over the last week? The statistics literally show exponetional growth whether they are truly representative.  The death rate in Italy and Spain is like 10% of reported cases, not representative, but meaningful and scary. 

 

And, whatever silverlining there is to diehard's post doesn't excuse the apparently total disregard of repeating falsehoods.Listen to doctors and scientists, not smart guys on the internet.

[Craig Arko]

 

 Listen to doctors and scientists, not smart guys on the internet. 

Those are the smart people on the Internet. Although not all of them are guys.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And, whatever silverlining there is to diehard's post doesn't excuse the apparently total disregard of repeating falsehoods.  Listen to doctors and scientists, not smart guys on the internet.

 

Trust doctors and scientists, true, but doctors and scientists have made claims they didn’t know to be true, too.

 

There is something called YPLL — Years of Potential Life Lost. It’s something doctors and scientists use to measure the impact of pandemics. Osterholm’s own center uses it. I don’t know much else about it, other than it seems abhorrent. Doctors and scientists. We’re all flying blind.

 

I’m not trying to “win” this argument against you. Just sharing with you all the dead ends I am encountering. I want to believe there is a right way to proceed, too, but I’m not finding it.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Trust doctors and scientists, true, but doctors and scientists have made claims they didn’t know to be true, too.

There is something called YPLL — Years of Potential Life Lost. It’s something doctors and scientists use to measure the impact of pandemics. Osterholm’s own center uses it. I don’t know much else about it, other than it seems abhorrent. Doctors and scientists. We’re all flying blind.

I’m not trying to “win” this argument against you. Just sharing with you all the dead ends I am encountering. I want to believe there is a right way to proceed, too, but I’m not finding it.

And again, we are not flying blind.  If you are not finding the right way to proceed you are being shamefully obtuse. I don't care about winning this argument but these continued, 'aww schucks, nobody really knows' comments are just irresponsible.  How to proceed is nearly universally held among scientist and doctors: lock down (social distancing is not enough). The only reason to doubt that is one's own arrogance. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And again, we are not flying blind.  If you are not finding the right way to proceed you are being shamefully obtuse. I don't care about winning this argument but these continued, 'aww schucks, nobody really knows' comments are just irresponsible.  How to proceed is nearly universally held among scientist and doctors: lock down (social distancing is not enough). The only reason to doubt that is one's own arrogance.

 

You are wrong.

[glunn]

Moderator note -- this is a difficult time for almost everyone. The moderators are allowing some leeway in this thread, but posters need to remain respectful of people with opposing viewpoints.

[Mr. Brooks]

Hosken,

The Olympics are postponed, for the first time ever.

March Madness was cancelled.

NBA, NHL, and NBA were interrupted.

Schools are almost universally being held remotely.

Ford is manufacturing ventilators.

Doctors are sharing how to videos amongst their peers for making homemade surgical masks and hazmat suits.

How can you think it's even in the realm of possibility that those are the responses to something less dangerous than the flu?

[gunnarthor]

For the life of me, I can't understand the "logic" behind the idea the economic damage from self isolating is worse than the virus.  The statements by the Lt. Gov in Texas, by the President, by many on FOX news are dangerous and are going to get people killed and tank our economy anyway.

[gunnarthor]

This made me laugh a lot

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hosken,

The Olympics are postponed, for the first time ever.

March Madness was cancelled.

NBA, NHL, and NBA were interrupted.

Schools are almost universally being held remotely.

Ford is manufacturing ventilators.

Doctors are sharing how to videos amongst their peers for making homemade surgical masks and hazmat suits.

How can you think it's even in the realm of possibility that those are the responses to something less dangerous than the flu?

Early on I thought this would be just like the flu, except that without immunity more people would get it. Now I think this is going to be much more deadly; we are in a pandemic. I don’t know if the public health cost will be worse if we lock down and flatten the curve or if we let the coronavirus spike through the population and subside more quickly. I know that is extremely unpopular and sounds heartless. I’m not convinced one option is better than another because medical appointments are already being postponed and patients refused care because hospitals need to prepare for what’s coming not to mention the psychological toll and breakdown of general order that an extended quarantine order would have, which unlike China not everyone in the US would comply with anyway, then, the waves of outbreaks we are told to expect again once the orders are lifted, until the vaccine is ready, 12-18 months, living like this. Another awful question is who gets priority once the vaccine is ready.

[glunn]

I am optimistic that science will provide a treatment long before a vaccine is ready.

 

My take on this is that it is absolutely certain that tens of millions of our fellow citizens are going to be hurting if this goes on too long, but without the quarantine a million lives could be lost. For me this is a tough choice.

 

I think that the quarantine makes sense until we have more information, but if I was a waiter with rent due then I might have a different view.

 

Let's not be like Yankee fans. There are two sides to this and we need to listen and not shout.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

How many dead would you consider to be acceptable losses?

It's not an issue of choosing who does and doesn't go. This is natural selection. This virus is going to kill who it's going to kill and there's literally nothing we can do about it. Flattening the curve isn't going to change the mortality rate. All it will do is extend it over a longer period of time but allow your hospitals the bandwidth to cope. It may save an extra life here or there, but it's long term mortality rate will not change. 

 

Like it or not, it does the same thing most other viruses do. It attacks those who can fight it the least. Because there is no natural immunity, it will do what it does. 

 

It's not an issue of acceptable losses. Those losses will happen. Our current course of action is going to add to them significantly.