Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Coronavirus

gunnarthor

By gunnarthor
in The Sports Bar

 Share

Recommended Posts

twinsnorth49 St Paul Saints

twinsnorth49

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

You are more bitter now than I recall from our previous conversations over the years. Whatever the source, I'm sorry about that.

Sorry that’s the way I’ve come across, it’s unintended. I’m not bitter at all, truly. It’s obviously a very difficult time for everyone and reactions are understandable, but I tire of the soapboxers and people making grand and strong assertions about things that require more nuance and context. That’s not about me minimizing things, it’s about trying to be as factual as possible and trying not to get too carried away in an obviously very uncertain time.

 

Everybody wants to be heard in all of this, it’s getting more and more difficult to wade through the weeds and find some clear water.

 

You’re a smart man, I’ve always appreciated your perspective. None of what I’m referring to has anything to do with your contributions. I respect them.

  • Replies 725
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Popular Posts

Brock Beauchamp
Brock Beauchamp

Barks, love you always and wish for the best for you and yours. We miss you here.

ashbury
ashbury

Ramping up early could have cost millions, millions that would be wasted if the pandemic never came about.   Not ramping up and trying to play catch up is costing trillions, plural.

Bark's Lounge
Bark's Lounge

Hello everyone. Back for a minute. I know of 7 people who have C19 and 2 on quarantine who do not have it yet. Scary stuff for sure. I have my fears, but choose to keep my coping mechanisms intact. I

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

 

Distancing needs to be observed. Shelter in place? I'm not convinced it's necessary for everyone. I's necessary for people who are most at risk of severe complications. I'm not suggesting everything return to normal but there are alternatives for operating in modified conditions. Cuomo himself said the other day this doesn't have to be an either or thing. 

I like what Walz did here in Minnesota. He outlined a clear five week plan of shelter in place for two weeks, then three weeks of social distancing and did it based on the numbers. He didn't knee-jerk himself into a bad decision, he listened to people who understood the numbers and acted with a calm, cool hand. Of course, that's easier to do when your state's citizenship is naturally inclined to keep to themselves and no part of the state has a high urban density.

 

We need a lot more of that kind of clarity in our leaders right now. Unfortunately, we're not getting enough of it.

 

I'm open to whatever plan works and has the data to support it but some parts of this country needed to be preparing for this two months ago, not two weeks ago. Everybody understood New York didn't stand a chance fighting this thing because of their public transport and high urban density, yet NOW they're scrambling for ventilators.

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

 

However, his overall point about the economy is not without merit and our President (Who I disagree with) is throwing this exact same debate front and center for all of us to confront. He also doesn't seem to get his fact straight either (In my opinion) but I can tell you that he is not alone in his opinion with his approval rating is up to 49%. So yeah, you are laying down the law and stating. We believe this way here. 

I actually haven't addressed diehard's opinions about the economy at all. I disagree with his opinions but they're just that, opinions.

 

I only challenged his repeated assertions that flattening the curve will not change the mortality rate. As we've seen in South Korea versus Italy/Spain, flattening the curve is vitally important and pretty much every person worth listening to on the subject agrees.

Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

I think we’re all reading lots of articles daily because many of us don’t have much else to do. I’m over saturated at this point. I seek advice from my experts. If you want to give it, I’ll say, ‘hmmm, Learned man or experts?’ I’ll probably choose experts, no offense, because doctors and other resources close to the battle of research are more to my style. But I’m doing what you’re doing and I imagine we’re all a bit stir crazy. But, there is a difference between opinion and declarative statements with incorrect data in them. And maybe one is the other and it’s not always easy to discern reading words from a computer screen. So ... how the opinion is given matters greatly when some of us are stir crazy, some nervous and worried and some calm and some defiant. I’ve liked most of what you’ve said here and you and I have been on the same page with testing. But even that is too late. Distancing is good for now and will hopefully buy us time, but if too many are not practicing it, it may not matter to our health care facilities. That said, the economic impact ... there are large portions of the population that will feel it more than others. It doesn’t matter if it’s distancing or shelter at home ... for me, personally, I don’t know when we will be allowed to perform for an audience again, and I don’t know when that audience will feel comfortable sitting next to one another again. My impact will linger longer than the bartender’s. But ... don’t know. We’ll see. In the meantime, I’m enjoying warm weather but missing the great Chicago sing along.

Oh, and I wish you’d still be posting the numbers you were. They were useful.

 

I have stated multiple times in this thread that my posts are just noise. I don't take offense if you chose to listen to an expert over a learned man. I suggest it and think it is smart to go straight to the source of experts because all I have to offer is my regurgitation of those I'm relying on. 

 

I stopped posting those numbers because I am of the opinion that until the reporting of the number of tests are more accurate, the information was probably not worth what it could be and I believe it could be worth something just seeing what happens to the numbers when the data increases. Do the percentages go down or up. You'd think down... but they were primarily going up.     

 

I only started posting them because I have the opinion that the daily reporting of numerators (confirmed cases and deaths) that have at least a two week lag are misleading without the important denominator of how many tests have been taken.

 

As long as Maryland sits with 517 tests taken on March 26th. As long as Michigan has stopped reporting Negative test results. As long as States, Cities, Hospitals are making their own determinations on who gets tested based upon their own standard or the amount of test kits that must be rationed or whatever. I kinda questioned the value of what I was doing and I stopped. 

 

In short, I was mostly doing it to make myself feel better, information always makes me feel better, gives me the illusion of control and since I put the work in... I thought that I'd share it. It came across as sterile and it didn't seem to make anyone else feel better. 

Musk21 First Round Pick

Musk21

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html

 

The 1918 flu, which was known as the Spanish flu, didn’t actually originate in Spain. It had a mortality rate of 2.5% and killed more people — 30 million to 50 million — than the 20 million who died in World War I. If the 4.5% mortality rate of COVID-19 drops, it won’t be as bad as the 1918 flu. If it continues on its current trajectory, it will be almost twice as deadly.

twinsnorth49 St Paul Saints

twinsnorth49

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

The true mortality rate will not be known for quite some time. It’s important to understand what it is presently so that we can identify who needs help and how much will be required. Already the mortality rate has dropped considerably through case based modelling in Wuhan, which would surely drop even further if the sample was expanded.

 

From a vaccine standpoint, it will be very important to ultimately know the true mortality rate and specifically where that lies and why.

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-may-be-deadlier-than-1918-flu-heres-how-it-stacks-up-to-other-pandemics.html

 

The 1918 flu, which was known as the Spanish flu, didn’t actually originate in Spain. It had a mortality rate of 2.5% and killed more people — 30 million to 50 million — than the 20 million who died in World War I. If the 4.5% mortality rate of COVID-19 drops, it won’t be as bad as the 1918 flu. If it continues on its current trajectory, it will be almost twice as deadly.

My Mom remembers my Grandma talking about the Spanish flu. She said that there wasn’t a family not touched by it. Also, the shelter in place things ... St. Louis did that and had far, far fewer cases. Philadelphia didn’t and saw a lot of deaths.

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

The true mortality rate will not be known for quite some time. It’s important to understand what it is presently so that we can identify who needs help and how much will be required. Already the mortality rate has dropped considerably through case based modelling in Wuhan, which would surely drop even further if the sample was expanded.

From a vaccine standpoint, it will be very important to ultimately know the true mortality rate and specifically where that lies and why.

They are still doing so much research. My niece hears a lot of it because of her job. I would expect the mortality rate percentage to drop a lot, but with the contagion rate ... we’ll, we won’t even know what that truly is, either. This is just so new and no one has any immunities.

 

I heard they are trying to see if there is a link to blood type and being more susceptible. No confirmation on that yet but initially thought that maybe Type A was more susceptible and Type O less susceptible. They are also experimenting with injecting the plasma of someone who is now immune into the worst cases. Just new things happening every day. New discoveries, new drug trials.

 

That time thing is important. I think they will be successful with drug therapies in the next few months.

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Has there been any movement on the question of whether this thing can recur in the same person? I know that was a question last week but haven't heard anything since.

I haven’t looked at that one in a while. The last thing I read it was unconfirmed. There was someone in Japan who was reported to have caught it a 2nd time, but they don’t know if perhaps the first test she had was faulty.

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

US Troops at the Canadian border? Don’t worry, we’re not coming. Unless it’s to help.

Oy, another bad form move by the White House in response to the pandemic. Troops should go where needed and not deployed where they aren’t during times like this. The proposal was dropped, according to the WSJ, but, that wasn’t confirmed, according to the NYT. I hope that proposal was dropped as it would be a really, really, REALLY, bad form move.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-objects-to-u-s-plan-to-put-troops-at-border-11585247654

 

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/26/world/americas/26reuters-health-coronavirus-canada.html

ashbury GOAT

ashbury

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

I have an opinion. :) This revised view by an expert just points up how scant the data has been on this.

 

Ramping up the production of tests in (say) January, when the WHO raised the flag about the threat of a pandemic, might have provided useful information to guide what kinds of steps we needed to take in early March. Which... people have been saying for a while now.

 

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

As my niece said, there is so much research going on around the clock, around the globe. And drug trials in process or starting many places. Hers will be starting soon. Time. And a little hope.

Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

 

FDA approved so roll them out and crank up the drive thru's

 

But... I'm reading that we are still short on supplies and short on people to administer the tests. 

 

Gotta keep going until the tests can be conducted at home. 

Squirrel GOAT

Squirrel

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Pricing is one thing, distribution will be another. It concerns me greatly that the White House would actually block procured supplies from being sent. Actions like that aren’t just petty in times like this, it’s downright evil.

 

"What I've gotten back is that vendors with whom we've procured contracts -- They're being told not to send stuff to Michigan," Whitmer said live on air. "It's really concerning, I reached out to the White House last night and asked for a phone call with the president, ironically at the time this stuff was going on."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/after-trump-attacks-whitmer-she-says-vendors-arent-sending-desperately-needed-coronavirus-supplies/ar-BB11Nb4k?ocid=sf2&fbclid=IwAR09A5TdQvUEzSyPwQWFToNpy889W882u595vc_mCZSoIlNrD_z0-hxGnBA

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Twins community on the internet.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    20,623
    Total Members
    48,845
    Most Online
    Manon Lefèvre
    Newest Member
    Manon Lefèvre
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...