Coronavirus

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I want to be able to see my Dad again.

 

I would break glass or bend steel for your right to travel to see your family during this time.

[glunn]

 

Worst case is where we are. We have not ramped up our testing, and don’t seem to be, and it’s likely too late. Heck, we even turned down offers for test kits because our egos are psychotic. We refused to acknowledge this and it’s too late to get done what needed to be done a month ago. S Korea and China are the models of what to do. Anything less than that is a failure. We have failed and been failed. We don’t have facilities to manage it when people do get sick. And we have too many vulnerable ... uninsured and underinsured who won’t and can’t seek medical help or get tested. Our country failed, horrifically. Other antivirals are not effective, or they’d be doing that widespread now. And I think I read somewhere already that isn’t true.
My niece works for a pharma company. She has her ear to the ground on things ... the outlook is very bleak.

I agree with all of this, except I am hearing that the antiviral drugs are at least somewhat effective.

[Craig Arko]

 

Would you live like this for 18 months? Do you think the general public will? Do you think this virus will ever be eradicated?

In preference to being dead (since I'm in a higher risk demographic), yes, I suppose I would.

 

The general public is beyond my control; I can only direct my own actions.

 

Eradicated? Perhaps not. Managed? It's been done before.

 

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/timeline/polio

 

https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccine-basics/index.html

 

What's your advice?

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I would break glass or bend steel for your right to travel to see your family during this time.

 

The most succinct way I can describe the way I currently feel is this:  

 

If I catch the Coronavirus... It may be mild, it may be critical. I obviously don't want critical especially during the peak but the reason I practice social distancing (the best I currently can) isn't for myself. 

 

I practice social distancing (the best I currently can) is because I don't want to be the person who sheds the virus onto 2 to 10 people or more. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

 

The general public is beyond my control; I can only direct my own actions.

 

Eradicated? Perhaps not. Managed? It's been done before.

 

 

 

The restaurants and bars are closing to protect us from ourselves. There is a high level of naivety. 

 

I personally know people who talk about the economy first and foremost and I know people who have literally said. Old people are supposed to die anyway.

 

They continue life as normal in defiance because businesses need our support or they are unafraid of their personal health being compromised due to the high percentage of mild cases. . 

 

Which of course, leads to complete shut down of the bars and restaurants to stop the congregation of people who are:

 

1. Not Paying attention or care to pay attention. 

2. Mininimizing the public health risk consequences. 

3. Don't care about others

4. Don't understand and can't put two and two together. 

5. Looking at the low level math currently available. 

 

 

Which in turn, deepens or lengthens the economic impact. 

 

 

[glunn]

Can someone fact check this?

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub

[Craig Arko]

 

Can someone fact check this?

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vTi-g18ftNZUMRAj2SwRPodtscFio7bJ7GdNgbJAGbdfF67WuRJB3ZsidgpidB2eocFHAVjIL-7deJ7/pub

Maybe. There's this letter to the respected journal Nature:

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0

 

They say nothing about human trials for SARS-CoV-2, so this does not seem imminent. I'd be delighted to be wrong.

[Riverbrian]

34 Confirmed cases in Eagle County, Colorado (Vail) 

 

County Population: 52,197

 

11 Confirmed Cases in Pitkin County, Colorado (Aspen)

 

11 Confirmed cases in Gunnison County, Colorado (Crested Butte) 

 

County Population: 16,939

 

Based on the number of confirmed cases and the population of the counties. I think we can say the Colorado ski resorts are a HOT SPOT

 

 

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In preference to being dead (since I'm in a higher risk demographic), yes, I suppose I would.

 

The general public is beyond my control; I can only direct my own actions.

 

Eradicated? Perhaps not. Managed? It's been done before.

 

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/timeline/polio

 

https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/vaccine-basics/index.html

 

What's your advice?

I’m only predicting that people will want to get back into a routine before 18 months passes, and we should start planning for that.

 

Also, over time, maybe the larger burden of taking precautions should be transferred to us in the at-risk group, and everyone else should learn to accept a higher level of overall risk. I really don’t know.

[Squirrel]

I’m reading the possibility of 2.2 million Americans could die.

[glunn]

 

34 Confirmed cases in Eagle County, Colorado (Vail) 

 

County Population: 52,197

 

11 Confirmed Cases in Pitkin County, Colorado (Aspen)

 

11 Confirmed cases in Gunnison County, Colorado (Crested Butte) 

 

County Population: 16,939

 

Based on the number of confirmed cases and the population of the counties. I think we can say the Colorado ski resorts are a HOT SPOT

Probably mostly from passing around joints.

[glunn]

 

I’m reading the possibility of 2.2 million Americans could die.

Me too, but my sense is that level is highly unlikely. If this escalates much more then I expect Chinese level quarantines and testing. 

[glunn]

Also, at least this cat is being taken down a peg.

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/18/coronavirus-home-self-isolation-quarantine-cat-not-happy-mxp-vpx.hln/video/playlists/atv-trending-videos/

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I’m reading the possibility of 2.2 million Americans could die.

if 50% of Americans contract the virus (top end is 70%) then 2.2 m is 1.3% mortality rate and that seems to be on the low side too, on the range up to 4%.

[akmanak]

Serious question, why is it so important to test. We know the virus can spread through the community so instead of putting in place a national ban of gatherings we emphasis testing.

 

I don't really understand that. As like the flu, once you have it stay away. Why create a panic and flood the hospitals with patients who want a test?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Serious question, why is it so important to test. We know the virus can spread through the community so instead of putting in place a national ban of gatherings we emphasis testing.

 

I don't really understand that. As like the flu, once you have it stay away. Why create a panic and flood the hospitals with patients who want a test?

testing is important to learn how better to fight it, but how we choose to test is causing a ton of issues. I would have preferred to pattern after Korea, drive thru testing, but everyone gets tested.

[Squirrel]

Me too, but my sense is that level is highly unlikely. If this escalates much more then I expect Chinese level quarantines and testing.

 

The thing is, we should already be at China level and SKorea level. It WILL escalate because we haven’t done that. I’m currently in Florida where kids are still romping on the beach, because they don’t care, because they think, so what, it won’t be so bad for me. But it will be for everyone they come in contact with. We are looking at many, many months ahead of us because we haven’t done what it is necessary and it doesn’t seem as if we are even close to that. The testing levels is THE NUMBER ONE THING. I should be able to drive up, get a test, not because I’m showing symptoms or has been with someone diagnosed, I should be able to get a test, now, today, because we are testing every, single, person in this country. Because we are no where near that level, this will escalate and maybe escalate beyond our control. People should be FINED for not staying home ... unless it’s to go to the drugstore, grocery store or out to walk their dog. Of course, beyond necessary people. We are no where near doing that ... as a nation. These decisions need to be made at the top and are not. It is being left up to each state and there are vastly different protocols being taken. We should be transforming our schools to hospitals, now. We are so ill prepared. And major steps are NOT being taken, at all. Until I see this, I’m thinking we are going to hit that 2.2 million, or be closer to it than not.

[Riverbrian]

 

if 50% of Americans contract the virus (top end is 70%) then 2.2 m is 1.3% mortality rate and that seems to be on the low side too, on the range up to 4%.

 

Mortality rate will depend heavily upon medical infrastructure. If the system is over run, Mortality rate could be 3 to 4%. 

 

Flatten the curve. Mortality rate could be under 1% 

[Riverbrian]

 

Serious question, why is it so important to test. We know the virus can spread through the community so instead of putting in place a national ban of gatherings we emphasis testing.

I don't really understand that. As like the flu, once you have it stay away. Why create a panic and flood the hospitals with patients who want a test?

 

1. So you know who has it. 

2. Find the clusters (hot spots)

3. With larger samples and more stable information, the researchers get more accurate information to better fight the spread. 

 

We can both test and ban.

 

In my opinion, the lack of testing early has contributed to unnecessary banning. 

 

 

[Craig Arko]

This is excellent.

 

[Riverbrian]

 

https://covidtracking.com/data/

 

At 10:25 ET March 18th

 

5,993 Positive

50597 Negative

 

United States: 1 out of 9.44 Tests are positive

 

States with over 1,000 tests administered HOT SPOTS

 

Washington: 1 out of 13.96 Positive (14129 Tests)

California: 1 out of 17.52 Positive (8464 Tests)

New York: 1 out of 4.23 Positive (7206 Tests)

Minnesota: 1 out of 38.93 Positive (2336 Tests)

Massachusetts: 1 out of 8.06 Positive (1759 Tests)

New Mexico: 1 out of 74.78 Positive (1720 Tests)

Illinois: 1 out of 9.31 Positive (1500 Tests)

Maine: 1 out of 41.71 Positive (1335 Tests)

Texas: 1 out of 19.81 Positive (1268 Tests)

Florida: 1 out of 5.84 Positive (1227 Tests)

Colorado: 1 out of 7.60 Positive (1216 Tests)

Wisconsin: 1 out of 15.41 Positive (1110 Tests)

Oregon: 1 out of 15.89 Positive(1033 Tests)

Virginia: 1 out of 15.34 Positive (1028 Tests)

 

https://covidtracking.com/data/

 

March 19 Update: Looks like the test kits are arriving because the testing numbers took a big jump in certain states. Tracking to see how more testing changes the percentages daily. Any state with higher positive tests than National Average will be in bold. I am arbitrarily only listing states with over 1,000 tests with no idea if that number is close enough to be worth anything. Take all of this with a grain of salt... I am not an expert. 

 

National: 79,766 Tests - 8131 Positive - 1 out of 9.81 (Down)

 

Washington: 17105 Tests - 1187 Positive - 1 out of 14.4 (Down)

New York: 14597 Tests - 2382 Positive - 1 out of 6.1 (Down) 

California: 8592 Tests - 611 Positive - 1 out of 14.6 (Up)

Minnesota: 2762 - 77 Positive - 1 out of 35.9 (Up)

New Mexico: 2354 - 28 Positive - 1 out of 84.1 (Down)

Colorado: 2328 Tests - 216 Positive - 1 out of 10.8 (Down)

Massachusetts: 2015 - 256 Positive - 1 out of 7.9 (Up)

Illinois: 2052 Tests - 289 Positive - 1 out of 7.1 (Up)

Texas: 1907 Tests - 83 Positive - 1 out of 23.0 (Down)

North Carolina: 1850 Tests - 63 Positive - 1 out of 29.4 (Over 1000 for the first time)

Wisconsin: 1683 Tests - 106 Positive - 1 out of 15.8 (Down)

Maine: 1670 Tests - 43 Positive - 1 out of 38 (Up)

Florida: 1660 Tests - 328 Positive - 1 out of 5.1 (Up)

Oregon: 1554 Tests - 75 Positive - 1 out of 20.7 (Down)

Georgia: 1508 Tests - 197 Positive - 1 out of 7.7 (Over 1,000 for the first time)

Pennsylvania: 1320 Tests - 133 Positive - 1 out of 9.9 (Over 1,000 for the first time)

Virginia: 1278 Tests - 77 Positive - 1 out of 16.6 (Down)

 

I am not an expert - Just presenting the information in a different way. 

[Riverbrian]

More words from Computational Biologist Trevor Bedford:

 

https://www.motherjones.com/coronavirus-updates/2020/03/a-superstar-epidemiologists-plan-to-fight-coronavirus/

[Squirrel]

Right now the sample size is way too low for me to take much stock in this, but I wonder if this will prove accurate regarding blood types and vulnerability? I saw this in Newsweek also, but the article is based on the same study.

 

https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/blood-type-a-more-vulnerable-to-coronavirus/

[glunn]

Maybe the IBM supercomputer will help slow this down.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/us/fastest-supercomputer-coronavirus-scn-trnd/index.html

[biggentleben]

To get some more seriousness involved, South Dakota had new enzyme kits delivered to a private laboratory before the state laboratory, which is already a mess. However, the state lab was able to complete 94 tests today in the state, with 3 more positive tests, all from the same county in the state...my county.

[twinsnorth49]

Encouraging research, nothing more.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/covid-19-mortality-was-14percent-in-outbreak-epicentre-study/ar-BB11pLgi

[glunn]

I just learned that Los Angeles is instituting a stay at home order effective at midnight, with a 24 hour grace period for small businesses to transition. People will still be able to go to the grocery store or to pick up takeout food from restaurants.

 

I also spoke with a client in the pharma business, and if he is correct then this could get very bad.

 

Please be careful out there fellow Twins fans.

 

[PseudoSABR]

Here's a tracker that doesn't wait on official state reports and is updated continuously, if you're like me and like seeing what the numbers are ongoing.  (It's sourcework is at the bottom)

[twinsnorth49]

Japan appears to be an interesting outlier, for now. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-coronavirus-explosion-was-expected-in-japan-where-is-it/ar-BB11pQg8?li=AAggNb9

[MMMordabito]

I think Walz should also include liquor store employees as emergency personnel. Grocery store employees were a no-brainer, but we don't need our hospitals dealing with a bunch of safe detox situations as well.