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Posted

 

Diehard, you are missing one very important factor. 

 

The Death Rate/Percentage depends on medical care. 

 

If proper medical care is accomplished. We could see Death rates under 1%. If the Hospitals become overwhelmed we could see death rates above 3%. Maybe as high as 6%. They are pretty damn high in Italy because of the hospitals being overwhelmed among other factors.  

 

And of course... Hospitals being overwhelmed happens because of more cases and more cases makes that gap between 1% and 3% huge. 

 

And... you can't look at the current death rates and do current math. There is around a two week lag. People infected two weeks ago are not confirmed... yet. Confirmed cases today are not dead... yet.

 

All those numbers come tomorrow and the day after that and the day after that. I'm reading stuff from experts who say that limiting contact by 25% can cut the number of cases by 50%... but because of the lag we won't see the results of social distancing for a couple more weeks. Which means upward exponential growth until then. The next couple of weeks is going to be new ride for us all.  

 

You are right... Social distancing is about lowering the rate of exposure, which in turns leads to preventing a significant amount of deaths. You lose me when you reduce it to "You may save a life or two here or there because medical providers will be better equipped to keep up". The savings in terms of lives could be quite significant.  

 

As for your main point about the economy. I'm neither Democrat or Republican and I am about as anti-political a person as you've met and I have no plans to join either side at any time. I will say this without reservation. The country has never been more divided and getting worse by the second and it's spiraling out of control with no end in sight, I plan to stay in the middle and stay out of political discussion because I'm watching both sides drift further from me and it has gotten to the point that one side can't even talk to the other side.      

 

You are correct when it comes to the risk and the economy. The cold hard reality is this: 

 

When we elect someone for President, Governor, The US Senate, The US Congress, State Legislators, Mayors and even Bob down the street for City Council. We elect them for times like these. The job always has the risk of something like this coming down the pike and it produces the stunning responsibility of making the determination on who lives and dies. During good times the live or die number is small and times like these the live or die number is large. It's like being a General and making the determination that this battalion has to be sacrificed for the greater good. 

 

That is the debate before all of them right now. We voted and we now live with our choices.

 

And just like there is a lag between infection to confirmed and a lag from confirmed to death. There is a lag between election day and our elected officials having to make large scale life and death decisions.

 

Meaning, the decisions we make today matters in what happens tomorrow. On March 25th, 2020 we are living with the consequences of decisions made in January, In January we were living with the consequences of those we elected in whatever November it was. 

 

 

Brian, I'm not disagreeing with a lot of what you're saying here believe it or not. I have a different conclusion as to how things should be handled. Flattening the curve will allow for better care, and as I've said repeatedly, some lives will be saved. In my opinion, it won't save all as this virus will get its due. It won't save nearly enough lives to justify what we're doing right now. My concern is that hospitals aren't the only ones about to get overwhelmed. Countries are already hoarding food.  And it's well documented that people are doing it too. Safety nets are already being taxed well beyond their capacity.  The point I'm making is that there's going to be a real hunger problem in the not so distant future if the economy doesn't start back up soon, and the death toll from something like that could COVID look like nothing.

 

That 2.5T rescue package that was passed yesterday will at best buy a few weeks for people when months are going to be needed. But as I've said before, most of our country lives check to check. That includes plenty of our neighbors and friends whether we realize it or not. When unemployment hits 30% as some economists are predicting, then what? Do you think police have the ability to protect the food supply? Do you think the rioting that happened in Greece, Spain, and Italy just a few years ago won't return with a vengeance? Italy and Spain were barely solvent during that crisis. It's not like they are in significantly better shape today. What do you think will happen when the bond market goes under? Interest rates will skyrocket no matter what central banks do and nations will no longer be able to service their debts. There won't be money for more rescue packages. What will happen when countries go under?  All the history buffs should know that answer. It isn't pretty.

 

 

Posted

 

 

 

The numbers are undeniable and almost every medical expert is telling us the same thing: ease the curve and fewer people die.

Ventilators and the necessary ICU machinery are not readily available to cure every person sick with the same disease because of course they're not. Never in modern medical history has a single disease come on this strongly with the same necessary medical machinery needed to ease the mortality rate. We've built a capitalistic system that serves predicted need, not emergency need. I'm not even saying that's bad, I'm merely saying we only build and sell the machines we need under typical circumstances. These are not typical circumstances and that means we have fewer medical facilities than needed.


Let's put it in more numerical terms.


Say a single metro area has 100 ventilators, respirators, or whatever equipment is needed to keep the mortality low on COVID-19. Until that metro reaches 100 ICU patients with COVID-19 simultaneously, the mortality rate stays pretty low depending on age and personal circumstance, probably in the range of 1-2%.


That 101st patient has, if not a 100% mortality rate, close to it. As does every patient after that 101st patient. The mortality rate can go from 1, 2, 4% to 90% in a real hurry under your ugly Social Darwinism system.


We are not an anti-science forum, please respect that.

 

Again Brock, I'm not saying it doesn't matter. I'm saying that, in my opinion, what we're doing has some much bigger ramifications than some ventilators. I'm saying that, in my opinion, quarantining the at risk people would have been the right call here and would have accomplished a lot of what you're saying here without the risk of a systemic economic collapse. I'm saying that the kill rate, target demographics, and the way it spreads does not justify the response that society is taking right now. And I've posted the numbers, there's nothing anti-science about what I've said. We are doing this wrong.

 

I'm well aware that there's not enough supply of critical medical equipment. As I said before, there's a huge capacity planning issue here, and if there's a reason to be upset, this is a big one, and that's on our healthcare system that has more money than God right now. The CDC maintains warehouses for this purpose (my wife used to work at one) and to her point, those ventilators have likely been distributed already and there probably aren't enough of them. I get it. But even with everything a hospital needs, you and I both know that this virus is going to kill in those demographics. 

 

 

Posted


During this terrible time we are all going through we need accurate information. While I understand that this is simply a baseball forum, I also understand that the mods won't allow bogus posts to continue .

People are dying , let's have a little respect.

Posted

 

Again Brock, I'm not saying it doesn't matter. I'm saying that what we're doing has some much bigger ramifications than some ventilators. 

Literally not what you said, diehard. Own your statements and retract them.

 

"Corona is, in terms of kill rate, is not even as dangerous as the flu."

 

"It's not an issue of choosing who does and doesn't go. This is natural selection. This virus is going to kill who it's going to kill and there's literally nothing we can do about it. Flattening the curve isn't going to change the mortality rate."

 

"You can flatten the curve, but that will put very little dent in the mortality rate."

 

"Flattening the curve is about lowering the rate of exposure. You may save a life or two here or there because medical providers will be better equipped to keep up, but that virus is still going to kill at its kill rate..."

 

Every one of these statements is factually untrue.

 

Posted

 

I’m not going to be popular with this opinion, 

 

Heh, well you certainly got this part right. Probably time to acknowledge you might have been mistaken in overstating your claims.

 

I won't hogpile on the blame wagon with others because I do agree there is a significant problem with how people will be able to bounce back coming out of this mess.

 

But I don't share the fatalistic 'there's nothing we can do, it's just how things are; if they die, they die' attitude. For me, that's just plain wrong, and perhaps immoral. I hope we all live to see it proven wrong, and it will be through are actions as humans, and as citizens, that show that we can choose our way.

Posted

Brian, I'm not disagreeing with a lot of what you're saying here believe it or not. I have a different conclusion as to how things should be handled. Flattening the curve will allow for better care, and as I've said repeatedly, some lives will be saved. It won't save all as this virus will get its due. It won't save nearly enough lives to justify what we're doing right now. My concern is that hospitals aren't the only ones about to get overwhelmed. Countries are already hoarding food. And it's well documented that people are doing it too. Safety nets are already being taxed well beyond their capacity. The point I'm making is that there's going to be a real hunger problem in the not so distant future if the economy doesn't start back up soon, and the death toll from something like that could COVID look like nothing.

 

That 2.5T rescue package that was passed yesterday will at best buy a few weeks for people when months are going to be needed. But as I've said before, most of our country lives check to check. That includes plenty of our neighbors and friends whether we realize it or not. When unemployment hits 30% as some economists are predicting, then what? Do you think police have the ability to protect the food supply? Do you think the rioting that happened in Greece, Spain, and Italy just a few years ago won't return with a vengeance? Italy and Spain were barely solvent during that crisis. It's not like they are in significantly better shape today. What do you think will happen when the bond market goes under? Interest rates will skyrocket no matter what central banks do and nations will no longer be able to service their debts. There won't be money for more rescue packages. What will happen when countries go under? All the history buffs should know that answer. It isn't pretty.

 

In my opinion, your concerns about the economy are valid. I just disagree with the numbers (and sentiment) you use to support that opinion. Saying people are going to die anyway, is where you lose me. I believe your argument about the economy is stronger without the shock and awe of minimizing the casualties. That is where you lost me.

 

Unfortunately, I don't have an economic solution at the moment. I'm currently not comfortable throwing the doors open until the science (at least) gets a chance to catch up.

 

I to... would have done things differently, if I was in charge and all I have to say to that is: Thank God I'm not in charge. This would be a nightmare to be in charge of.

 

I'm trying to do my best not to Monday Morning QB, I want to look forward to what needs to be done and solve this as quickly as possible. My motivation is selfish. I want to see my Dad again. Who rightfully so, is currently locked up in a nursing home.

 

It is my opinion, when this is over. When we look back at it all. Testing will be the obvious mistake that was made. Testing early and often could have lessened all of this and now that the horse has left the barn... testing can be the road map out of it but it is going to require a larger scale because of the time that was wasted.

 

If Trump wants to restart the economy by Easter. He will need more stable information to do it and the testing isn't near where it needs to be for any such consideration. If he wants the people of Western Texas to get back to work while New York is shut down. He better know what is going on in Western Texas with solid stable sampling. We need more testing beyond those who are showing symptoms.,Stohastic testing in homes. We need testing for anti-bodies so those with anti-bodies can go back to work safely. When New York starts coming out the other side... maybe they can go back to work. We won't know without testing.

 

We need information and information is what the Epidemiologists have been screaming for since the beginning.

 

There are 15 million Snickers candy bars produced every day. When you consider all the other products that are produced in the millions every day. We can as a country (World) produce the testing kits needed and get them out to the public. With our current new found unemployment problem, we should have no problem finding the workforce to quickly train enough people to read the tests and input the data.

 

Which our experts can read and find the path out quicker.

 

This is how America back in the 40's produced enough ships, planes and tanks to go from mid-pack to military super power in a short time during WWII. Rosie the Riveter stepped up and supported the front lines.

 

That's why they were called the greatest generation, and that generation... I will not turn my back on at this time.

Community Moderator
Posted

On another note, as I’ve said before, my niece works for a pharmaceutical company which has been working on COVID-19 drugs, and has been since the outbreak in China. They are ready to start trials and will as soon as they select and get agreements from various markets. She is very close to and knowledgeable of what is being done in the scientific community. We need time. At this point in time, there is no use in talking about what should have been done. I’ve been saying all through this thread the China and SKorea models are what we should have been doing but it’s too late for that. Right now we need time, and sheltering in place is the only way to buy that. Yes, there will be an economic fallout, but there is no way to actually quantify and compare ... which scenario is worse. Glunn posted a letter just up a bit that I thought was excellent. If the entire country just would do a 30-day shutdown, we’d be okay. But with states issuing them at various times, is problematic and will make the situation more drawn OUT and worse on all fronts ... in human toll AND economic toll. I’m out of work now until mid-May and no idea about my salary. I’ll be paid until Apr. 12, after that? Don’t know. But I have savings and my health insurance will be maintained so I’m one of the lucky ones. I’m trying to identify different groups and GoFundMe campaigns to donate to. There are other initiatives if people want to investigate what they can give in time and services. blood is needed needed. Now I’ve rambled. Just trying to remain hopeful.

Posted

Today, In the state of North Dakota. 

 

Tiny McIntosh County - Population 2,606 in Central North Dakota along the South Dakota border 2 hours from any population center just had it's first confirmed case. 

 

A 9 year old boy. 

 

I'm going to assume that he wasn't a world traveler. Quite possible that he has traveled somewhere with his parents. No details but I'm going to assume he wasn't a world traveler when he had school to attend.  

 

This raises that Asymptomatic transmission flag much higher in my mind.  

 

 

Posted

Today, In the state of North Dakota.

 

Tiny McIntosh County - Population 2,606 in Central North Dakota along the South Dakota border 2 hours from any population center just had it's first confirmed case.

 

A 9 year old boy.

 

I'm going to assume that he wasn't a world traveler. Quite possible that he has traveled somewhere with his parents. No details but I'm going to assume he wasn't a world traveler when he had school to attend.

 

This raises that Asymptomatic transmission flag much higher in my mind.

And this is why posts that actively diminish a virus that is on every continent except Antarctica, are harmful. A virus that does not discriminate based on age, gender, or upbringing.

 

Please consider this and come up with an action plan to prevent blatant misinformation from being posted on this topic.

Posted

 

This just makes too much sense ... yet, here we sit. Do it already!

This is old news, South Korea and other nations have been effective in handling this without locking down everything, even China didn't lock down the entire country. 

 

It's largely too late for this, it defensive mode now, the opportunity to go on the offensive has past. 

Posted

 

And this is why posts that actively diminish a virus that is on every continent except Antarctica, are harmful. A virus that does not discriminate based on age, gender, or upbringing.

 

 

Please consider this and come up with an action plan to prevent blatant misinformation from being posted on this topic.

 

I have spoken to a lot of people about the Coronavirus, all people that I have great respect for and these conversations have taken place during the entire month of March. It is the topic that dwarfs all topics these days, it's conversation that you can't escape.  

 

All of them are good solid human beings, who pay their taxes and raise their kids to the best of their ability.

 

I can say that everyone has a unique opinion on the situation, I can say that everyone has varied levels of how much research they've done to form their opinions, from hardly any at all, to more research in a month than they did in 4 years of college. 

 

And I repeat my often spoken Mantra that we choose our information sources to fit our personal preferences and it just ends up separating us to a level unseen before in this country. Statesmanship is gone and it has been replaced by theater and anger. Nobody knows how to speak to the other side anymore.   

 

I've heard everything from Hoax to a Million will die in the United States. We are all sorting through a lot right now. My posts are my personal opinion, I feel strongly about them but they are just added noise to the collection of noise that is bouncing around our ear drums at the moment from many different directions.    

 

Welcome to America in the year 2020. 

 

Community Moderator
Posted

This is old news, South Korea and other nations have been effective in handling this without locking down everything, even China didn't lock down the entire country.

 

It's largely too late for this, it defensive mode now, the opportunity to go on the offensive has past.

Oh, I totally agree we are past the China and SKorea models. I stated that a couple of posts ago. The Senate has opportunity to put the stimulus money toward production of needed supplies. That is a defensive move, but it could have also been a proactive move. Trump could have ordered a ramp up in production, and imo, still should. But he has no real interest in helping. He has outbid states on hospital supplies and is stockpiling until governors are ‘nice’ to him. Just want someone to push for a better response. But yes, is too late. Time is now all we can do through shelter in place. Maybe the states’ governors should push through deals with China. They have lots and lots of supply right now.
Posted

 

And this is why posts that actively diminish a virus that is on every continent except Antarctica, are harmful. A virus that does not discriminate based on age, gender, or upbringing.

 

Please consider this and come up with an action plan to prevent blatant misinformation from being posted on this topic.

It most definitely discriminates based on age. I don't think diehard was diminishing the virus, he's putting it in context. The biggest takeaway is vulnerable people should have been the focus of this from the start, and widespread testing and tracing should have been implemented long ago in order to identify infection areas and limit community spread. Social distancing to some degree still has to be observed but that could have been achieved without keeping virtually everyone at home and closing up shop. 

 

Anyway, spilled milk. Too late. 

 

Community Moderator
Posted

It most definitely discriminates based on age. Diehard isn't diminishing the virus, he's putting it in context. The biggest takeaway is vulnerable people should have been the focus of this from the start, and widespread testing and tracing should have been implemented long ago in order to identify infection areas and limit community spread. Social distancing to some degree still has to be observed but that could have been achieved without keeping virtually everyone at home and closing up shop.

 

Anyway, spilled milk. Too late.

Right. I don’t think anyone is disagreeing much in what could have been done. And what could have been done would have mitigated much. But from this point forward, where we are today ... forget distancing and shelter in place to resume businesses and concerts and sports and ? You think because what wasn’t done, we just carry on now? That’s kind of the where the question is at ... what is best right now? I still think if everyone would just lock down now it could have a great affect in slowing contagion to a point where medical systems can handle the influx.

Posted

 

Right. I don’t think anyone is disagreeing much in what could have been done. And what could have been done would have mitigated much. But from this point forward, where we are today ... forget distancing and shelter in place to resume businesses and concerts and sports and ? You think because what wasn’t done, we just carry on now? That’s kind of the where the question is at ... what is best right now? I still think if everyone would just lock down now it could have a great affect in slowing contagion to a point where medical systems can handle the influx.

Distancing needs to be observed. Shelter in place? I'm not convinced it's necessary for everyone. I's necessary for people who are most at risk of severe complications. I'm not suggesting everything return to normal but there are alternatives for operating in modified conditions. Cuomo himself said the other day this doesn't have to be an either or thing. 

Posted

 

Welcome to America in the year 2020. Diehard's post was not actively harmful because nobody is listening anyway. I've had no luck trying to sway the opinions of others.  

 

Diehard's post was a representation of what others are thinking and saying right now. I've heard his opinion expressed by others multiple times.

Then what's the point of anything? You know what, let's just redirect everything to the Epoch Times and call it a day.

 

All opinions are not created equally and factually incorrect information should be aggressively challenged because it's literally putting people in danger. I don't care if there are millions of people repeating falsehoods elsewhere on the internet, I can't control that.

 

But I can control it here and in a situation as dire as this one, I'm damned well going to do what I can to stop the spread of misinformation.

 

If anyone wants to read the opinions of people who actually matter, here's a good list.

 

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/oppenheim/Covid-19_tweeps.shtml?fbclid=IwAR0mO-DoFp5UY9m7DQgXD7bGXhVamx6lWokqMs6laleuo7ZDZCtjuqQqWYs

Posted

Then what's the point of anything? You know what, let's just redirect everything to the Epoch Times and call it a day.

 

All opinions are not created equally and factually incorrect information should be aggressively challenged because it's literally putting people in danger. I don't care if there are millions of people repeating falsehoods elsewhere on the internet, I can't control that.

 

But I can control it here and in a situation as dire as this one, I'm damned well going to do what I can to stop the spread of misinformation.

 

If anyone wants to read the opinions of people who actually matter, here's a good list.

 

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/oppenheim/Covid-19_tweeps.shtml?fbclid=IwAR0mO-DoFp5UY9m7DQgXD7bGXhVamx6lWokqMs6laleuo7ZDZCtjuqQqWYs

Stopping the spread of misinformation here is going to make you one busy guy.

Posted

 

There's already been several TD members calling this out for action. I don't believe nobody is listening. You're doing a service by providing raw information. I don't see you on this thread spewing out coronavirus is less deadly than the flu. 

 

I've read his opinion expressed elsewhere too. Makes it very easy to cut those folks out of my Twitter and Facebook feeds...  If I could hide diehard's posts I would... Alas, he's a moderator. 

 

I don't believe it is less deadly than the flu so I won't spew that. :)

 

But, are we talking percentage or overall deaths when this is all over? Percentage... I 100% believe that it is way more deadly than the flu. I don't believe it can be argued. The number of deaths overall... I don't know. 

 

My personal opinion has been formed by reading experts nearly exclusively.

 

While, the experts I'm reading are united in their collective opinion, they are also united with the frequent use of the phrase "I Don't Know" because they are still learning every day about something they had no information on mere months ago and they have been hamstrung by the lack of information they need to zero in on a clear answer. 

 

I started reading after March Madness was cancelled to find out why the extraordinary act of cancelling it happened. I haven't stopped reading since. I am pouring through anywhere from 10 to 30 articles each and every day. I have nothing better to do since I am doing my best to shelter in place as much as possible based on the things that I am reading. :)

 

I have no expectation whatsoever that others are doing what I'm doing to the degree that I'm doing it. I tend to be obsessive. Others are forming their opinion based upon however, they come to it. I'm versed and prepared to argue with anyone using the information that I have selected to read but I find that nobody is impressed by the amount of articles that I'm reading. Nobody has said, you are right Brian, I'm going to follow your advice and honestly... I don't think I should be giving advice just because I'm reading 10 to 30 articles a day. I'm just opinionated and passionate. 

 

Diehard's post was a representation of what many people are thinking right now. I will debate it full-throated but just stomping on his head after he expressed it will only lead to one opinion allowed. 

 

He stated it... I debated it. That's how it is supposed to work. He isn't alone in his opinion... I'm not alone in mine. You are not alone in yours.  

 

Community Moderator
Posted

I don't believe it is less deadly than the flu so I won't spew that. :)

 

But, are we talking percentage or overall deaths when this is all over? Percentage... I 100% believe that it is way more deadly than the flu. I don't believe it can be argued. The number of deaths overall... I don't know.

 

My personal opinion has been formed by reading experts nearly exclusively.

 

While, the experts I'm reading are united in their collective opinion, they are also united with the frequent use of the phrase "I Don't Know" because they are still learning every day about something they had no information on mere months ago and they have been hamstrung by the lack of information they need to zero in on a clear answer.

 

I started reading after March Madness was cancelled to find out why the extraordinary act of cancelling it happened. I haven't stopped reading since. I am pouring through anywhere from 10 to 30 articles each and every day. I have nothing better to do since I am doing my best to shelter in place as much as possible based on the things that I am reading. :)

 

I have no expectation whatsoever that others are doing what I'm doing to the degree that I'm doing it. I tend to be obsessive. Others are forming their opinion based upon however, they come to it. I'm versed and prepared to argue with anyone using the information that I have selected to read but I find that nobody is impressed by the amount of articles that I'm reading. Nobody has said, you are right Brian, I'm going to follow your advice and honestly... I don't think I should be giving advice just because I'm reading 10 to 30 articles a day. I'm just opinionated and passionate.

 

Diehard's post was a representation of what many people are thinking right now. I will debate it full-throated but just stomping on his head after he expressed it will only lead to one opinion allowed.

 

He stated it... I debated it. That's how it is supposed to work. He isn't alone in his opinion... I'm not alone in mine. You are not alone in yours.

I think we’re all reading lots of articles daily because many of us don’t have much else to do. I’m over saturated at this point. I seek advice from my experts. If you want to give it, I’ll say, ‘hmmm, Learned man or experts?’ I’ll probably choose experts, no offense, because doctors and other resources close to the battle of research are more to my style. But I’m doing what you’re doing and I imagine we’re all a bit stir crazy. But, there is a difference between opinion and declarative statements with incorrect data in them. And maybe one is the other and it’s not always easy to discern reading words from a computer screen. So ... how the opinion is given matters greatly when some of us are stir crazy, some nervous and worried and some calm and some defiant. I’ve liked most of what you’ve said here and you and I have been on the same page with testing. But even that is too late. Distancing is good for now and will hopefully buy us time, but if too many are not practicing it, it may not matter to our health care facilities. That said, the economic impact ... there are large portions of the population that will feel it more than others. It doesn’t matter if it’s distancing or shelter at home ... for me, personally, I don’t know when we will be allowed to perform for an audience again, and I don’t know when that audience will feel comfortable sitting next to one another again. My impact will linger longer than the bartender’s. But ... don’t know. We’ll see. In the meantime, I’m enjoying warm weather but missing the great Chicago sing along.

 

Oh, and I wish you’d still be posting the numbers you were. They were useful.

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