MLB.com Top 30 Twins Prospects

[John Kelsey]

MLB redesigned their prospect ranking pages and released the Twins top 30 today. 

[Vanimal46]

Their ETAs are.... aggressive, to say the least.

[MNT1996]

Hard to believe Ober isn't on that list

[gunnarthor]

So the new layout is not an improvement. Having to load after 10 names to see the top 100? And there doesn't seem to be a link between a player in the team top 30 to their place in the top 100. Maybe I'm missing it but so far I don't see it.

 

As for their actual ranking, a few things popped out to me.

1) Enlow at 9 seemed an aggressive ranking considering his results.

2) Baddoo at 13 after missing last year? They must like him more than most or be less bullish on the system overall.

3) They have Celestino at mlb level. Unless I missed something, that's not right.

4) Blankenhorn at 18 and Holland at 20 seems about right. I think both of these guys could make significant jumps in our system this year. I like the note about Holland working with Rooker. If his bat comes around, he's an easy top 100 prospect and an absolute steal for a fifth rounder.

[goulik]

Only top 10 prospects:

Royce Lewis 3rd Best Short Stop overall

Alex Kirilloff 10th Best Outfielder overall

 

 

They also still have Nick Gordon in the top 20 and having Akil Baddoo in the top 20 is also interesting 

[mlhouse]

A guy I think is a sleeper on that list is Chris Vallimont, the pitcher the Twins got from Miami in the Sergio Romo trade, who is ranked 29th.  

 

He got rocked a bit in his first start for Ft Myers after the trade, but I was at his second in Ft Myers.   He was very, very sharp.   He gave up only 2 hits over 7 innings, walked just one and struck out 7.  I think he had a perfect game through 6 innings.   I thought all of his pitches were very advanced for A+ ball with a very solid slider that mixed well with his fastball.

 

His 3rd start which was a back to back start against hte same team, was even better, and he had a 0.85 WHIP in his four starts with Ft Myers despite the terrible debut.

[gunnarthor]

 

A guy I think is a sleeper on that list is Chris Vallimont, the pitcher the Twins got from Miami in the Sergio Romo trade, who is ranked 29th.  

 

He got rocked a bit in his first start for Ft Myers after the trade, but I was at his second in Ft Myers.   He was very, very sharp.   He gave up only 2 hits over 7 innings, walked just one and struck out 7.  I think he had a perfect game through 6 innings.   I thought all of his pitches were very advanced for A+ ball with a very solid slider that mixed well with his fastball.

 

His 3rd start which was a back to back start against hte same team, was even better, and he had a 0.85 WHIP in his four starts with Ft Myers despite the terrible debut.

I think the rub on him is control, not stuff. It would be interesting if the Twins could fix that. There was some talk somewhere (fangraphs?) about the Twins tinkering with Duran's mechanics to improve his offspeed control. Would be nice if we can fix a few more pitchers.
 

[Thrylos]

 

Their ETAs are.... aggressive, to say the least.

 

Not for Lewis Thorpe (ETA 2020) and Jorge Alcala (ETA 2021).

They both arrived in the majors in 2019

[mickeymental]

no yankees in the top 50. that's promising, right?

[terrydactyls]

21 of the top 30 have an ETA of 2020 or 2021. Are roster sizes increasing from 26 to 45? Where are all these bodies playing?

[Thrylos]

 

21 of the top 30 have an ETA of 2020 or 2021. Are roster sizes increasing from 26 to 45? Where are all these bodies playing?

 

Some hopefully in the teams where the Twins' next number 1 and number 2 pitchers are coming from this deadline.

[gunnarthor]

 

21 of the top 30 have an ETA of 2020 or 2021. Are roster sizes increasing from 26 to 45? Where are all these bodies playing?

I think the ETAs are supposed to represent when a player might be ML ready, not necessarily when they will be in the majors.

[DocBauer]

Hard to believe Ober isn't on that list

Doesn't throw especially hard, despite his size, from what I hear. The results have been outstanding though. I suspect his length amps up his stuff so that it jumps at hitters.

 

Injuries are what's holding him back. Not sure that can be disputed. He finds a way to just stay on the mound, not only does his status rise, but I think he spends time at AAA this year.

[twinsfanstreif]

21 of the top 30 have an ETA of 2020 or 2021. Are roster sizes increasing from 26 to 45? Where are all these bodies playing?

Probably including September call ups in this

[jud6312]

 

3) They have Celestino at mlb level. Unless I missed something, that's not right.

 

 

I think during spring training anyone that's on the 40-man roster is technically considered part of the active roster - Blankenhorn, Gordon and Chalmers are also listed as being on the MLB team. Once they get sent to their MILB team or minor league camp, it'll likely be updated.

[Shaitan]

 

Probably including September call ups in this

I'll think they're only doing 28 on the roster, starting this year, in Sept.

[amjgt]

 

Doesn't throw especially hard, despite his size, from what I hear. The results have been outstanding though. I suspect his length amps up his stuff so that it jumps at hitters.

Injuries are what's holding him back. Not sure that can be disputed. He finds a way to just stay on the mound, not only does his status rise, but I think he spends time at AAA this year.

 

I tried to do some math on this a while back and I'm not going to go back and look for it, but basically the premise was.... Ober throwing 90 is about the same as Berrios throwing 94, based on the time is takes for the pitch to get to the hitter (because Ober is releasing the ball 18" closer to the plate than Jose).

[jorgenswest]

I tried to do some math on this a while back and I'm not going to go back and look for it, but basically the premise was.... Ober throwing 90 is about the same as Berrios throwing 94, based on the time is takes for the pitch to get to the hitter (because Ober is releasing the ball 18" closer to the plate than Jose).

 

I wonder if it is the release of the ball or the point where the batter can pick up the throwing hand and ball. I am not sure the timing for the batter starts at the point of release.

[bird]

 

no yankees in the top 50. that's promising, right?

 

The remarkable thing about this is that the Yankees broke the cap and spent north of $30M (!!) on IFA prospects during their 2014-15 spree, 8 of them to 7-figure bonuses. These prospects should have emerged by now.

 

They have exactly one of those prospects among their Top 30, and that guy was signed for less than Polanco got. That's 20+ signings to get a guy who ranks right up there with Luis Gil in their system.

 

Sweet justice.

[AZTwin]

The remarkable thing about this is that the Yankees broke the cap and spent north of $30M (!!) on IFA prospects during their 2014-15 spree, 8 of them to 7-figure bonuses. These prospects should have emerged by now.

 

They have exactly one of those prospects among their Top 30, and that guy was signed for less than Polanco got. That's 20+ signings to get a guy who ranks right up there with Luis Gil in their system.

 

Sweet justice.

That’s amazing. Twins really did well with the Sano, Kepler, & Polanco IFA class

[Oldgoat_MN]

No question he's got a cool name, but Akil Baddoo has not posted an OPS of >.770 outside of rookie ball.

I hope either his #13 rating does not depict what incredible longshots the following players are or Akil has a monster season this year.

Because, if he is what we've seen and he really is #13, well, our farm doesn't look so great.

[Mr. Brooks]

No question he's got a cool name, but Akil Baddoo has not posted an OPS of >.770 outside of rookie ball.

I hope either his #13 rating does not depict what incredible longshots the following players are or Akil has a monster season this year.

Because, if he is what we've seen and he really is #13, well, our farm doesn't look so great.

He's ranked where he is because of his tools.

And that's the way it should be.

If we just want to rank production, we don't need scouts or prospect lists, just sort milb by OPS.

 

Results will matter as he gets closer to the show, but for now he has the tools to be ranked where he is.

[DocBauer]

I tried to do some math on this a while back and I'm not going to go back and look for it, but basically the premise was.... Ober throwing 90 is about the same as Berrios throwing 94, based on the time is takes for the pitch to get to the hitter (because Ober is releasing the ball 18" closer to the plate than Jose).

Well, you know math is allowed here at TD but highly discouraged. Lol!

 

But no question that the inability for a batter to pick up the ball early is a huge advantage for the pitcher regardless of the algorithm math stuff. That 18" extra reach and more arm, leg and body movement has got to confuse hitters.

 

Man I hope he can stay healthy. I just keeping thinking there is so much length to work with mechanically that he should be working hard on anything from yoga to pilates, etc, to maintain himself.

[DocBauer]

He's ranked where he is because of his tools.

And that's the way it should be.

If we just want to rank production, we don't need scouts or prospect lists, just sort milb by OPS.

 

Results will matter as he gets closer to the show, but for now he has the tools to be ranked where he is.

Don't have my prospect handbook available, but from memory, the kid is similar to Hicks and Buxton when you look at tool set and potential. So totally agree with you.

 

2019 set him back a good full season plus, but just given time there could be something there. I think we often forget numbers don't equal tools and potential.

[obtusebanter]

 

Don't have my prospect handbook available, but from memory, the kid is similar to Hicks and Buxton when you look at tool set and potential.

 

I always think of Torii Hunter in these situations. He didn't put up stats until he was 22. 

[DocBauer]

I always think of Torii Hunter in these situations. He didn't put up stats until he was 22.

 

FWIW:

 

Tori Hunter:

 

23yo/ 384AB/ .689OPS

24yo/ 336AB/ .726OPS

25yo/ 564AB/ .784OPS

 

Byron Buxton:

 

23yo/ 462AB/ .728OPS

24yo/ 90AB/ .383OPS

25yo/ 271AB/ .827OPS

 

Everyone needs to make of this what you will. I know what I see.