Front Page: The 12 Free Agents of Twins-mas: Part II – Outfielders

[renabanena]

We are single-digit days away from Christmas. If you’re anything like me, you’re also scrambling last minute to get the rest of your presents purchased, wrapped, and placed under the tree. However, the same cannot be said for the free agent market for outfielders.The market for outfielders has been as silent as a mouse due to the recent and rapid signings of the largest free agents on the market, such as Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner (remember when everyone thought he’d be a Twin? Too soon?).

 

It’s often said to “strike while the iron is hot”. However, the best time for the Twins to strike in the outfielder market may be while the iron is cold and unattended. While the Twins’ outfielder core still consists of Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, and Eddie Rosario, this may not be the case on Opening Day. This is largely contingent on Buxton’s health status and the jersey that is on Rosario’s back in 98 days. Therefore, the Twins need to evaluate each possible outfield scenario, from worst case to best, to come up with contingency signings that address these potential needs. For each free agent below, their potential role with the Twins is highlighted based on these contingencies.

 

This three-part series covers the 12 free agents that the Twins should spend the remainder of their payroll on this holiday season. Stay tuned for Part III – Pitchers next week. In the meantime, please check out Part I – Infielders.

 

You know the drill. Feel free to sing along. No calling birds were harmed in the making of this list.

 

Fourth FA of Twins-mas: Cameron Maybin

2019 Salary: $555,000

Twins Offer: 1 year, $1M

Potential Role: Backup Outfielder

 

The lack of depth in the Twins’ outfield was largely exposed when Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, and backup Jake Cave all faced injuries throughout the 2019 season. There was even a moment in time when the utility man, Marwin Gonzalez, could not fulfill the outfield duties. This lack of offensive production from the outfield largely affected the Twins’ performance in August (who could forget that day and a half when the Twins almost lost the AL Central?) and September and likely contributed to excessive playing time for Kepler through his injuries.

 

Who better to add as a backup to the Twins’ outfield lineup than a player who spent his entire 2019 season filling injured shoes in the Bronx? Cameron Maybin is the perfect target to add significant depth in the outfield without creating a significant dent in the Twins’ payroll. The veteran platoon player had the best year of his career in 2019, with one of his biggest moments occurring at Target Field when Maybin vigorously rubbed salt all over the Twins’ gaping wound during Game 3 of the ALDS. (Can someone check on the left field pole?)

 

At 32-years-old, Maybin has already been a member of 10 separate clubs during his 12-year tenure in the big leagues. If there is a guy out there who has seen it all, it’s Maybin. In 2019, Maybin spent his time with the Yankees playing second fiddle to Giancarlo Stanton and the parade of injured players. Despite signing with the Indians on just a minor league deal with a subsequent trade to the Yankees, Maybin played in 82 career-defining games in New York. Maybin hit .285/.364/.494 and produced a 1.5 WAR in 239 AB’s. Unlike the Twins in 2019, his bat does not cool off in the postseason. In two postseasons with the Astros and the Yankees, Maybin has slugged a .308/.400/.538 with three stolen bases in 13 at-bats.

 

Last year, the Twins were plagued with instances of poor baserunning and lacked stolen bases. Despite having the fastest runner in all of baseball on the team, the Twins ranked last in the league with 28 stolen bases (Buxton accounting for 14 of them). In 2019, Maybin stole nine bases, which is more than Jorge Polanco, Kepler, Rosario, and Jonathan Schoop combined. While the lack of stolen bases did not seem to hinder the Twins’ performance, generating more stolen bases wouldn’t hurt either.

 

Having an effective baserunner combined with experience and a reliable offense makes Maybin an ideal candidate to deepen the Twins’ outfield in 2020, regardless of where Rosario and if Buxton play on Opening Day. Although Maybin will likely continue to play the role of a backup outfielder on most days, his numbers suggest that he still has the chops of an everyday player. Despite his age, Maybin seems to be catching his second wind. Black Friday was three weeks ago, but the Twins can still get Maybin on a bargain.

 

Fifth FA of Twins-mas: Billy Hamilton

2019 Salary: $5.25M

Twins Offer: Minor League deal

Potential Role: Pinch runner, Backup Outfielder

 

On Aug. 19, Billy Hamilton was claimed off waivers by the Atlanta Braves to essentially serve as a pinch runner and occasional pinch hitter for the team. Offensively, Hamilton’s numbers were less than stunning. He batted a meager .218/.288/.275 with no home runs and 15 RBI’s in 316 at-bats. As a frame of reference, out of all the everyday backup players, Willians Astudillo had the lowest number of RBI’s, at 21. However, Astudillo played in only 58 games and had 190 AB’s, almost half of Hamilton’s. To add insult to injury, Hamilton had the lowest average exit velocity in the league at 78.3 MPH combined with the lowest percentage of hard hit balls in the league at 7.3%. All in all, Hamilton had a terrible, horrible, no-good year offensively.

 

Therefore, the Twins should sign Billy Hamilton.

 

Hamilton is a phenomenal defensive asset who can serve exclusively as a pinch runner for the Twins, like he did in Atlanta. However, due to his unimpressive offensive numbers last year, the Twins can get him at a steal of a deal. For years, teams took a chance on Hamilton hoping his offensive numbers would improve over time. After all, Hamilton is a switch hitter who has had glimpses of promise throughout his career. However, these hopes are rapidly dwindling in the majors, and there are little to no signing rumors swirling Hamilton in 2020.

 

Instead of placing any offensive hopes on Hamilton, like teams have done in the past, the Twins should consider adding Hamilton in the lineup as an exclusive defensive asset, serving as a pinch-runner primarily for older, slower, or injured players, such as Nelson Cruz, who will turn 40-years-old on July 1. To mitigate the risk of any potential injuries to players like Cruz in high leverage situations, having a pinch runner like Hamilton can mean the difference in late innings in significant games.

 

It’s no secret that Hamilton is fast. Hamilton’s sprint speed is a remarkable 29.5 ft/sec. On top of that, Hamilton is an exceptional defender. His 15.3 UZR/150 ranked fifth among the 77 outfielders to log at least 700 innings in 2019 and his fielding percentage in 2019 was a full 1.000. After Buxton’s injury in 2019, there was a hole in center field that was never quite mended defensively. Hamilton would be an ideal defensive substitute for Buxton should he be unavailable at any point in 2020.

 

Sixth FA of Twins-mas: Kevin Pillar

2019 Salary: $5.8M

Twins offer: 1 year, $6M

Potential role: Left field starter, Center field backup

 

Kevin Pillar was a fan favorite in Toronto for many years, with the same core of Blue Jays that was mentioned in last week’s article, consisting of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Justin Smoak. In that group, Donaldson and Encarnacion went on to have breakout years in 2019 with their respective teams, while Bautista and Smoak steadily fell off the map. However, Pillar has been consistently producing essentially the same season, offensively and defensively, since 2015. The biggest differences in his lowest and highest BA, OPB, and SLG during all of his seasons in the majors are (.026/.032/.056). Mike Trout is the best player in baseball and widely known as one of the most consistent from season to season. As a point of comparison, the difference between Trout’s lowest and highest BA, OPB, and SLG are (.039/.083/.149). Pillar exceeds the consistency of Trout paired with the defensive prowess of Jim Edmonds.

 

Pillar would be an ideal substitute for Rosario if he is traded during the offseason. Pillar mirrors Rosario offensively, but defensively, Pillar would be an enormous improvement in left field.

 

It’s not blatantly obvious that Pillar and Rosario are similar offensively. Pillar finished 2019 with a .259/.287/.432 which consisted of 83 runs, 88 RBI’s, 158 hits, and 89 strikeouts. Although Rosario finished with a slightly better batting average, he hit a similar .276/.300/.500, which consisted of 91 runs, 109 RBI’s, 155 hits, and 86 strikeouts. Both players even hit for the same number extra base hits, at 61. The biggest offensive difference between Pillar and Rosario in 2019 was home run totals, where Rosario edged Pillar out by 11 home runs. However, for what Pillar lacks offensively compared to Rosario, he strongly makes up for in defense.

 

You can’t watch a defensive montage of the “best plays of any year” in the latter half of the 2010’s without a Pillar moment showing up at least once. This defensive proof is in the numbers’ pudding. He graded out positively in center field, and had the sixth-best range (RngR on FanGraphs) among all outfielders. Pillar posted a 7.4 RngR while Rosario was at -7.6.

 

 

Pillar isn’t affectionately deemed “Superman” without reason. Although Pillar is two years older than Rosario, Pillar has almost a full foot per second greater sprint speed than Rosario as well.

 

If Rosario is sent to the Marlins (or another team) during the offseason, Pillar would be an ideal replacement on a one-year deal for the Twins until a certain prospect is ready to hit the big leagues. What you would lose in fractions of an offensive edge with Rosario, you’d gain in defensive prowess and clubhouse leadership in Pillar. Pillar is a fan favorite for every team that he’s ever played for. If Rosario is sent to another team, Twins fans want someone to root for and a name to chant at the game. I can already see the Superman shirts in the Twins’ store.

 

Fun fact: Kevin Pillar once held a 54-game game hitting streak in college, which to this day is the NCAA Division II record. He was later drafted in the 32nd round of the 2011 Major League Baseball draft by the Toronto Blue Jays.

 

Seventh FA of Twins-mas: Marcell Ozuna

2019 Salary: $5.25M

Twins offer: 2 year, $30M

Potential role: Starting left-fielder

 

The Twins do not typically sign big fish into their pond. The Twins prefer practical, bargain hunts, rather than splashing out on big ticket items, such as a Gerrit Cole or an Anthony Rendon. Out of all the big names linked to the Twins this offseason, such as Zack Wheeler and Madison Bumgarner, none have actually been penned over to the Twin Cities for the 2020 season. While right now there are no obvious holes that need to be plugged in the outfield, one could potentially arise if the Twins continue communications with other teams about Rosario.

 

If Rosario is traded in the offseason, the Twins should invest in Marcell Ozuna, one of the hottest outfielders on the market. Ozuna is an alluring choice and an ideal fit for the Twins because although he is the most coveted outfield bat in this marketplace, he does not hold the same price tag and allure as a player like Mookie Betts, or even 2018’s Bryce Harper.

 

If Rosario is traded to another team in the offseason, Ozuna is a major upgrade that the Twins should put a large, short-term investment in to bolster the lineup, both offensively and defensively. For most teams, there are more reasons to sign Ozuna than to NOT sign Ozuna. Ozuna is one of the top free agents on the market, even outside out of the outfielder market. Although the slot for the final free agent was a toss up between Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos, the crown was eventually given to Ozuna on a slight edge.

 

At 29-years-old, Ozuna is at the height of his career. He is coming off of one of his worst seasons in the majors, however, largely due to a right-hand injury. Prior to 2019, Ozuna suffered numerous setbacks, such as a lingering shoulder injury. However, Ozuna shows signs of promise with a marvelous postseason for the Cardinals, slashing a .324/.359/.595 in his first postseason debut, which indicates that Ozuna is ready for a bounce back year in 2020. Despite his relatively disappointing 2019 performance, Ozuna had a 2.2 WAR in 2019, with a career WAR of 19.5 after just seven years in the big leagues. For comparison, Rosario had a 1.6 WAR in 2019, with a career WAR of 10.3 after five years in the big leagues.

 

Although Ozuna had his infamous, meme-able moment in St. Louis this year after attempting to scale a wall to catch a ball, Ozuna is by no means a poor defender.

 

 

Consistently, Ozuna has a fielding percentage of .985 or better. Rosario only had one season in the majors where he had a fielding percentage of exactly .985. Year after year, Ozuna continues to improve defensively, while Rosario’s remains stagnant.

 

Ozuna rejected the qualifying offer that was offered to him by the St. Louis Cardinals, suggesting that he is ready to bet on himself for a multi-year renaissance in the upcoming seasons. Therefore, the Twins should give Ozuna the platform that he needs to thrive. Replacing Rosario’s big bat with an even bigger bat in Ozuna locks in the reliable offense that the Twins need, without draining their bank account on a “designer” piece.

 

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[MMMordabito]

Hamilton to a minor league deal is interesting, but pass on the rest. The aging, lost-a-step, OBP-challenged Pillar has especially little appeal. I might go so far as to say a full season of Cave PA's and defensive production would outpace Pillar and very likely flirt with Ozuna.

[mikelink45]

Why not - we need some competition in Spring Training

[Danchat]

If they could get Maybin to do what he did for the Yankees last year, heck, I'd take that. He'd make a great backup to Buxton so that Kepler wouldn't have to shift to CF, and you also wouldn't have to worry about Cave's defensive bloopers. 

[High heat]

I like bringing in Hamilton on a minor league deal.  I feel like our outfield depth is solid as it looks right now.  IF you trade Rosario and/or Cave Pillar and Maybin make sense.

 

as we sit right now we have Rosario, Buxton Kepler Marwin and Cave all at the big league level with Wade Riley and Blankhorn at AAA. 

 

But if your going to sit around and wait, then finally move Cave or Rosario late in Jan or Feb and you don't bring in a 1B or 3B and have to pencil in Marwin at 1B.  Now you get caught with your pants down and we are think depth wise.

[cardsfan]

Ozuna can DH some. He should have taken QO. His defensive will drive you crazy at times with popups down the line that look catchable. Throwing from LF is problematic.

[Maravilla44]

Already paying Marwin 10.5 million, don’t see the PT that any of these guys would be interested in.

[Richard Swerdlick]

Unless we trade some of our better outfield prospects I don't see us going outside the organization for more outfielders.

[old nurse]

Hamilton has 7 years in the big leagues to have a career WPA of -7.75.

[beterday]

Cave's base-running was embarrassing.  For someone that needs that skill set to stay in the majors he was horrible.  One more stupid dive for a fly-ball turning into a triple will again cause me to turn off the TV.  Cut Cave and sign Maybin.

[Tomj14]

I have zero interest in Hamilton unless it is to try and set the AAA stolen base record.

I like Ozuna on a short deal if the Twins do indeed trade Rosario.

If they don't trade Rosario, then I think signing somebody that has options left would be nice, unless that player is taking Cave's spot as the 4th outfielder.

[pierre75275]

Isnt Maybin the Yankee who openly mocked Dobnak on Twitter after the series? If so, I think I'll pass.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Unless we trade some of our better outfield prospects I don't see us going outside the organization for more outfielders.

 

Agreed. Also, just no on Hamilton. 

[Bomba2026]

10 clubs in 12 years.....? That is a big Red Flag that I am waving off the deck now. Trading fan fav Eddie is like trading a 4 yr old Toyota for a 1963 Corvair.

[jkcarew]

The Twins OF had a collective wRC+ of 107 last year...even with the issues. Not exactly where a club in the Twins situation should be focusing scarce FA resources. And then there's the fact that outfield is easily the position of greatest organizational depth.

 

Meanwhile, there's just no explaining the fascination some have with Billy Hamilton. He runs fast apparently. But, Usain Bolt would be a bad major league baseball player if he hit like Billy Hamilton. And he probably can.

[Melissa]

Oh my heavens, watching those Pillar highlights .... wow.

[darin617]

Cameron Maybin would be a great 4th outfielder and cheap as well. Now if they could find a trade partner for Cave it would be even better.

 

 

[cardsfan]

Hamilton to a minor league deal is interesting, but pass on the rest. The aging, lost-a-step, OBP-challenged Pillar has especially little appeal. I might go so far as to say a full season of Cave PA's and defensive production would outpace Pillar and very likely flirt with Ozuna.

Hamilton doesn't get on base enough. Will drive you crazy.