Terry Ryan: 2nd Offseason Priority Is The Bullpen

[beckmt]

I do think that at this time the Twins have a 3 man bullpen to be counted on. Rest are spot pitchers after the game is lost, and many of the better outings from the pen where against the weaker hitting clubs. Most top of the line bullpens have pitchers with stuff, Twins do not, this needs to be addressed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Agreed. If you have even a mediocre rotation, the bullpen isn't nearly as exposed. Those guys you listed are quality guys at the back of the pen. If your rotation isn't awful, you don't have to worry so much about the "soft underbelly" of the pen.

 

I'm not against shoring up the bullpen but I am surprised that it's the #2 concern. I'd think the middle infield wins that title easily.

 

How so? Wouldn't the better your rotation is, mean the more important the bullpen is? What's more important...holding onto a lead or tie, or coming into a game the starter has already lost? Nobody really cares all that much when Jeff Gray comes into a game the starter has already lost. If the Twins don't improve their starting pitching, then the bullpen isn't going to matter much. It'll lose games, but you can't finish lower than last.

 

In any case, no matter if your team is good or bad, or your starters are good or bad, your bullpen is going to be the deciding factor in a lot of games. Most major league baseball games end up close, it's the nature of the beast. Continually getting outpitched in the last 3 innings of a game matters too, just as does getting outpitched in the first 6.

 

You might argue that better starting pitching will throw more innings, and that's true, but the difference isn't as much as you'd think. Twins starters averaged 5.4 IP in 2012, worst in the AL. But the best only averaged 6.2, and half the teams were somewhere in the 5's, so most nights the Twins were asking their bullpen to get 1 or 2 more outs than their opponants. A good starting staff might eliminate those 1 or 2 outs, but every team in the league is asking their bullpen to pitch mulitiple innings almost evey night. You can't do that effectively with a 2 or 3 man bullpen.

 

I do agree that I don't know if the infield or the bullpen is a higher priority, but I'd argue both need to be addressed, although neither will likely matter much if they don't get better starting pitching.

 

The Twins have a decent pen already. Duensing, Burton, Duensing, and *maybe* Fien make up for a pretty solid 7-9 innings. Sure, the Twins could probably use another seventh inning guy but if you have four (maybe three) pitchers who can pitch, you're going to hold on to a lot of leads.

 

The main problem was the rotation. If you didn't have guys like Blackburn folding after four innings, followed by Deduno pitching five good innings, followed by De Vries throwing another 4.2 innings, your good relievers wouldn't be so taxed and we wouldn't be forced to watch Jeff Gray pitch the seventh or eighth inning over and over and over again. Sure, a half inning doesn't seem like much but over the course of a season, that's an extra 80 innings your bullpen has to throw and most of those innings aren't going to the Duensings, Burtons, and Perkins of the team. They're going to the scrubs, the replacement guys. And as we saw with many Deduno/Liriano starts, going five innings or less doesn't automatically mean the game is a blowout. Many of those games were close but Gardy had to come up with four innings from the pen. Not an easy task in a close game, doubly so if the opposing starter goes seven innings and you only have to face the best of their bullpen because of it.

 

Also, a better rotation means that Duensing actually get to pitch from the bullpen instead of being thrown into a starting role where he flounders. As I said, the Twins could use another guy in the pen but considering that their MI options are Escobar, Florimon, Carroll, and Dozier, I'm surprised that's not the #2 priority for the team. It seems to me that the most gains could be found by finding a shortstop or second baseman who isn't really bad at baseball.

[Riverbrian]

Agreed. If you have even a mediocre rotation, the bullpen isn't nearly as exposed. Those guys you listed are quality guys at the back of the pen. If your rotation isn't awful, you don't have to worry so much about the "soft underbelly" of the pen.

 

I'm not against shoring up the bullpen but I am surprised that it's the #2 concern. I'd think the middle infield wins that title easily.

 

How so? Wouldn't the better your rotation is, mean the more important the bullpen is? What's more important...holding onto a lead or tie, or coming into a game the starter has already lost? Nobody really cares all that much when Jeff Gray comes into a game the starter has already lost. If the Twins don't improve their starting pitching, then the bullpen isn't going to matter much. It'll lose games, but you can't finish lower than last.

 

In any case, no matter if your team is good or bad, or your starters are good or bad, your bullpen is going to be the deciding factor in a lot of games. Most major league baseball games end up close, it's the nature of the beast. Continually getting outpitched in the last 3 innings of a game matters too, just as does getting outpitched in the first 6.

 

You might argue that better starting pitching will throw more innings, and that's true, but the difference isn't as much as you'd think. Twins starters averaged 5.4 IP in 2012, worst in the AL. But the best only averaged 6.2, and half the teams were somewhere in the 5's, so most nights the Twins were asking their bullpen to get 1 or 2 more outs than their opponants. A good starting staff might eliminate those 1 or 2 outs, but every team in the league is asking their bullpen to pitch mulitiple innings almost evey night. You can't do that effectively with a 2 or 3 man bullpen.

 

I do agree that I don't know if the infield or the bullpen is a higher priority, but I'd argue both need to be addressed, although neither will likely matter much if they don't get better starting pitching.

 

The Twins have a decent pen already. Duensing, Burton, Duensing, and *maybe* Fien make up for a pretty solid 7-9 innings. Sure, the Twins could probably use another seventh inning guy but if you have four (maybe three) pitchers who can pitch, you're going to hold on to a lot of leads.

 

The main problem was the rotation. If you didn't have guys like Blackburn folding after four innings, followed by Deduno pitching five good innings, followed by De Vries throwing another 4.2 innings, your good relievers wouldn't be so taxed and we wouldn't be forced to watch Jeff Gray pitch the seventh or eighth inning over and over and over again. Sure, a half inning doesn't seem like much but over the course of a season, that's an extra 80 innings your bullpen has to throw and most of those innings aren't going to the Duensings, Burtons, and Perkins of the team. They're going to the scrubs, the replacement guys. And as we saw with many Deduno/Liriano starts, going five innings or less doesn't automatically mean the game is a blowout. Many of those games were close but Gardy had to come up with four innings from the pen. Not an easy task in a close game, doubly so if the opposing starter goes seven innings and you only have to face the best of their bullpen because of it.

 

Also, a better rotation means that Duensing actually get to pitch from the bullpen instead of being thrown into a starting role where he flounders. As I said, the Twins could use another guy in the pen but considering that their MI options are Escobar, Florimon, Carroll, and Dozier, I'm surprised that's not the #2 priority for the team. It seems to me that the most gains could be found by finding a shortstop or second baseman who isn't really bad at baseball.

 

Brock I apologize for this but... Everything you typed here is just a bunch of words.

 

A good rotation needs a bullpen... A bad rotation needs a bullpen. Your post seems to be a little A + B = C.

 

Bullpen is fine therefore with better SP we don't need to improve the bullpen? Yeah... That's an easy concept to understand but terribly wrong.

 

Runs can be scored in any inning. A bullpen pitching with a lead will be a different kind of important as opposed to last years staff that had to log serious innings down on the scoreboard.

 

If the pitching isn't going to improve in 2013... I agree with you... Our bullpen is just fine. If the pitching improves and we have some leads to play with... You better keep an eye on who is available for bullpen help otherwise you risk giving up your gains.

 

Goblin is right... We could use some flamethrowers.

[J-Dog Dungan]

The real problem is is that the MI FA situation is the worst in a LOOOONNNG time. There are exactly 0 MI FA that anyone would want to give a major contract this offseason.

[kab21]

The real problem is is that the MI FA situation is the worst in a LOOOONNNG time. There are exactly 0 MI FA that anyone would want to give a major contract this offseason.

 

It's always terrible. The Twins aren't in a position to give a MI a big contract so imo this is actually a GOOD year for MI'ers in FA. Scutaro, Drew, and Keppinger are affordable and solid while Yunel Escobar is likely to be dumped by the Jays.

[Rick Niedermann]

Well if Terry Ryan is/was truly concerned upgrading the bullpen then why didn't he give Slama a chance in September? But I do like the idea if for no other reason then I do not trust Burnett, Robertson. I don't think Anthony Swarzak is very good either. But for some reason most bloggers think he is great. We certainly don't need to keep rotating washouts like Jeff Manship, Esmerling Vasquez, Luis Perdomo and Matt Maloneys of the world. I'd bring back Capps at a say 1.5 million before I wouldn't use a 40 man spot on another bunch of AAAA type pitchers.

[kab21]

Regardless if the bullpen is a big concern or not you don't address it by spending a lot of money on it in FA. Bullpens get fixed by picking up failed starters or by dumb luck to be honest. Target more guys like Burton and Fien and you could pick up another cheap reliever that is far better than shelling out a 3/12 contract for a mediocre RP'er.

[sorney]

I thought the whole idea of drafting all those college power arms last year was that some of them would turn into relievers very quickly,while some would turn into starters. With the volatile nature of relievers, I'm not sure the #2 priority should be finding relievers. Relievers should just be a checkbox item that is done every offseason.

[Boom Boom]

I disagree with TR. My 2nd priority would be upgrading at shortstop.

[Linus]

I think what TR is really saying is that we have to dramatically increase the number of quality innings pitched regardless of whether or not it comes from the starters or the bullpen. He probably feels the task is so difficult that he is going to have make an all out effort to improve both starters and relievers significantly - and it still might not be enough.

 

As far as MI, my guess is that he feels that at least he has some young players to choose from that may get better and solve the problem acceptably. This logic holds some water when you consider the FA options are not great and you would have to overpay to get them (I would like Scutaro however). He knows he has no realistic bullpen options in the system, other than the ones that are already there.

 

So, I agree with the approach.

[ThePuck]

Seems every offseason we get to say, 'we need a 3B, a shortstop and a 2B'. Since Santana left, we added starting pitchers.

[LaBombo]

 

...You might argue that better starting pitching will throw more innings, and that's true, but the difference isn't as much as you'd think. Twins starters averaged 5.4 IP in 2012, worst in the AL. But the best only averaged 6.2, and half the teams were somewhere in the 5's, so most nights the Twins were asking their bullpen to get 1 or 2 more outs than their opponants. A good starting staff might eliminate those 1 or 2 outs, but every team in the league is asking their bullpen to pitch mulitiple innings almost evey night. You can't do that effectively with a 2 or 3 man bullpen.

 

I do agree that I don't know if the infield or the bullpen is a higher priority, but I'd argue both need to be addressed, although neither will likely matter much if they don't get better starting pitching.

 

Agree with your overall assessment of priorities in the last sentence, but not how much a good rotation helps a pen.

 

Another way to look at the rotation's effect on the bullpen is this: The AL teams with the weakest rotations (Twins, KC) in terms of IP depended on their bullpens for more than 100 extra innings pitched than the teams with the starter IP totals did.

 

100 innings. Purely in terms of innings pitched, that's enough to wash away the collective sins of Jeff Gray (5.71 ERA), Tyler Robertson (5.40), and Jeff Manship (7.89).

 

Can you totally eliminate your 2 or 3 worst relievers' damage to your season by getting 100 extra innings from your starters? No, of course not, thanks to the effects of usage limits/leverage/strand rate/etc. But you can damn well reduce it, and expend fewer resources shoring it up when there are plenty of other holes to fill.

[johnnydakota]

I can definately see the pen implode next year outside of Perkins.

Burton had his first solid year & history shows how up & down setup guys can be.

Fien came out of nowhere to have a solid half-season. Neither to me is a sure thing.

The sure thing to me is Duensing....only if he's used correctly & by knowing Gardy/Andy, that wont happen.

Gardy/Andy praise Burnett for his ERA while every other stat shows how mediocre he is & has been the 2 yrs previous.

Robertson's numbers weren't good but he did dominate lefties & there can be a place for someone like that.

Swarzak is a dime a dozen & will battle Deduno for the spot.

I cant say it enough, MN needs to find some strikeout pitchers for the pen...preferebly righties. I would love to check out JBroxton, JGrilli and ODotel (who will prob go to a contender). MN wil have to pay for these guys tho.

i believe octavo has an option year with detroit,if not is a good pickup , someone i wished they added last year with perkins unproven and capps proven

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock I apologize for this but... Everything you typed here is just a bunch of words.

 

A good rotation needs a bullpen... A bad rotation needs a bullpen. Your post seems to be a little A + B = C.

 

Bullpen is fine therefore with better SP we don't need to improve the bullpen? Yeah... That's an easy concept to understand but terribly wrong.

 

Runs can be scored in any inning. A bullpen pitching with a lead will be a different kind of important as opposed to last years staff that had to log serious innings down on the scoreboard.

 

If the pitching isn't going to improve in 2013... I agree with you... Our bullpen is just fine. If the pitching improves and we have some leads to play with... You better keep an eye on who is available for bullpen help otherwise you risk giving up your gains.

 

Goblin is right... We could use some flamethrowers.

 

It's not that terribly difficult to understand. Here, I'll lay it out differently.

 

Most of this past season, the Twins had Burton, Perkins, Fien, and junk in their pen (to keep it simple). The rotation went around 5.1 innings per start.

 

If the Twins sort out some of their pitching woes next season and pick up some starters, let's say they average 6.0 innings per start (not gonna happen but I'm only illustrating a point here). That is a whopping 320 less outs the bullpen needs to get over the course of a season. It also pushes out most of that "junk" from the previous bullpen because they don't need to pitch as often. The vast majority of those 320 innings went to the worst members of the bullpen. That's roughly two seasons' worth of work you no longer need to dish off to your "junk" relievers. Two full seasons of replacement level or worse baseball, poof, gone. That's huge.

 

As an added bonus, the Twins could then shift Duensing to a full-time bullpen role, adding another quality arm to Burton, Fien, and Perkins. That's four quality relievers you now have... Four relievers who need to cover 320 less outs (two full reliever years) in a season. You now have more quality arms in the pen who need to throw less innings per season. That's how a good rotation can help a bullpen.

 

As I said, I'm not against the Twins picking up another reliever in case one of those four guys falter or get injured (uh, Slama, anyone?), but I am surprised that JR considers it the second biggest priority on the team. I don't see it that way. I think more could be gained by pursuing a middle infielder (but admittedly, this FA crop has very little to offer in that department) because the Twins are going to be flat-out awful in the MI unless they get really, really lucky with one of the guys they have in the minors.

[Guest USAFChief]

A few point, Pig:

 

First, Twins starters averaged 5.4 IP per start in 2012, not 5.1. Not a big deal, but still.

 

Secondly, you're mixing up "outs" and "innings" in paragraph 2. You start out talking about 320 outs, end up with 320 innings. Dropping 320 innings from the bullpen isn't going to happen, I'm sure you'll agree. Even dropping 320 outs is going to be difficult; they'd need to be up among the league leaders next year in IP from starters to come close to that.

 

Third, you're planning on only the "bad" relievers losing innings. That's not going to be the case. You're still going to have a 6 or 7 man pen, and all of those relievers are going to pitch at least some high level innings...again, most baseball games are relatively close. You cannot get through a season without exposing the bottom half of your bullpen in situations where that is going to hurt you if the bottom half of the pen sucks. Hopefully they can use Burton regularly next season on back to back nights, but that's just one example of why you can't depend on a couple guys to pitch every time it matters. Not to mention the liklihood that some of your "good" relievers are going to miss time during the course of the season. You're not going to see any poof, two full seasons of replacement level or worse baseball, gone. That's totally unrealistic. Less, possibly, but not gone.

 

Finally, call me crazy but I'd like to see more of Fien (and Burton for that matter) before I count on them being consisitent, quality relievers who can be pretty much counted on. For that matter, Duensing probably needs to be exposed to as few good RH hitters as possible to truly be an asset in the pen.

 

I'm certainly not against upgrading the MI. But I think ignoring the bullpen will likely waste a good portion of whatever improvement they can squeeze from the starters. If they want to contend in 2013, they need better pitching...1st inning through 9th.

[old nurse]

In regards to the MI, what is out there? From the list of FA and players discussed not much. That could be why bullpen is the second priority. There is more of a chance to improve the bullpen than the MI.

[Brock Beauchamp]

A few point, Pig:

 

First, Twins starters averaged 5.4 IP per start in 2012, not 5.1. Not a big deal, but still.

 

Secondly, you're mixing up "outs" and "innings" in paragraph 2. You start out talking about 320 outs, end up with 320 innings. Dropping 320 innings from the bullpen isn't going to happen, I'm sure you'll agree. Even dropping 320 outs is going to be difficult; they'd need to be up among the league leaders next year in IP from starters to come close to that.

 

Third, you're planning on only the "bad" relievers losing innings. That's not going to be the case. You're still going to have a 6 or 7 man pen, and all of those relievers are going to pitch at least some high level innings...again, most baseball games are relatively close. You cannot get through a season without exposing the bottom half of your bullpen in situations where that is going to hurt you if the bottom half of the pen sucks. Hopefully they can use Burton regularly next season on back to back nights, but that's just one example of why you can't depend on a couple guys to pitch every time it matters. Not to mention the liklihood that some of your "good" relievers are going to miss time during the course of the season. You're not going to see any poof, two full seasons of replacement level or worse baseball, gone. That's totally unrealistic. Less, possibly, but not gone.

 

Finally, call me crazy but I'd like to see more of Fien (and Burton for that matter) before I count on them being consisitent, quality relievers who can be pretty much counted on. For that matter, Duensing probably needs to be exposed to as few good RH hitters as possible to truly be an asset in the pen.

 

I'm certainly not against upgrading the MI. But I think ignoring the bullpen will likely waste a good portion of whatever improvement they can squeeze from the starters. If they want to contend in 2013, they need better pitching...1st inning through 9th.

 

5.1 and 5.4 innings are virtually the same if you're using traditional baseball innings counts (.0, .1, .2).

 

I typed "innings" in one portion of the post but all the math is based on outs so we're good there.

 

Not only the "bad" relievers are going to lose innings... That's not the point. The point is that the "good" relievers will also have more of their workload shifted to where it should be... The seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. No more Burton in the fifth helps the team quite a bit, maybe even more than Jeff Gray not pitching the fourth.

 

As I said, I'm not against the Twins looking for more bullpen help. That's not the point of my statements... My point is that I question whether the bullpen should be the second highest priority this offseason.

[Guest USAFChief]

The point is that the "good" relievers will also have more of their workload shifted to where it should be... The seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. No more Burton in the fifth helps the team quite a bit,

 

Not to beat a dead horse, but Burton entered a game prior to the 6th inning six times in 2012. Once after mid May, when he had proven himself healthy, effective and one of the trusted few.

 

In any case, we're splitting hairs, because I don't know whether the bullpen should be "priority 2" either. All I know is i doubt the Twins 2012 bullpen would have been able to stand up to the rigors of a pennant chase, but we don't talk about it much because the putridity of the rotation masked it, or at the least made it moot. And...as it is currently constructed, I don't think it very likely the bullpen would stand up in 2013, were the Twins to somehow find themselves trying to win important games next August and September.

 

So I'll leave it at this...I hope JR somehow manages to get lucky with the MI, or upgrade it, AND finds a couple quality RH arms to augment the pen and the 4 above average starters he somehow pulls out of a hat. That's not asking too much, is it?

[iastfan112]

I'd be fine with a cheap bullpen option and some scrap heap signings but I don't think it should be second on the priority list. Perkins and Burton make a fine setup and closer combo. Duensing is a great situational lefty and Fien should be serviceable in the 7th(this is my most likely target to regress). Swarzak is a decent option for long relief, despite what his ERA may show, most of the ugliness came from his handful of starts. I'd much rather see the money spent in the infield, guys like Kelley Johnson or Drew are intriguing and shouldn't break the bank. I hear Mark DeRosa is available as well.

 

As it is we have a questionable Plouffe(was that streak a mirage?) at 3B, an aging Jamey Carroll or a no hit Pedro Florimon at SS, and a disapointing(thus far) Dozier at 2nd. It's not as if there is any sort of help coming from the minors for these positions either. Even with a good year Levi is likely a year away.

[Riverbrian]

I'd say we need a left hander. Duensing can't be the only capable lefty. I'd say that is fairly important. Perkins could be that guy and if he is. We will need a closer and I'd say that is fairly important. Injuries and failure is always a real possibility with current staff. We also need an uptick in Gas. TR tried with Zumuya last year. He just might take another swing at someone with a live arm.

 

If SP improves and the bullpen isn't addressed and Fein is cut in May with a 8.56 ERA. Twinsdaily will crucify TR for not addressing the pen.

 

I have no problem with the #2 priority assessment of the pen.

[NoCryingInBaseball]

One or two new starters aside, the starting rotation maystill need a good bullpen to back them up. If Bakers is resigned, he will be returning with pitch count or inning limitations doe to his rehab. The same goes for Gibson if he makes the big leagues at the beginning of the year ormid-season. The rotation will still need one of the players from the 2012auditions; Hendriks, Deduno, or (dare I say it…Blackburn), any of these candidates are still “projects” and could easily give way in the early innings for bullpen support. Guess I understand where Ryan is coming from.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The point is that the "good" relievers will also have more of their workload shifted to where it should be... The seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. No more Burton in the fifth helps the team quite a bit,

 

Not to beat a dead horse, but Burton entered a game prior to the 6th inning six times in 2012. Once after mid May, when he had proven himself healthy, effective and one of the trusted few.

 

In any case, we're splitting hairs, because I don't know whether the bullpen should be "priority 2" either. All I know is i doubt the Twins 2012 bullpen would have been able to stand up to the rigors of a pennant chase, but we don't talk about it much because the putridity of the rotation masked it, or at the least made it moot. And...as it is currently constructed, I don't think it very likely the bullpen would stand up in 2013, were the Twins to somehow find themselves trying to win important games next August and September.

 

So I'll leave it at this...I hope JR somehow manages to get lucky with the MI, or upgrade it, AND finds a couple quality RH arms to augment the pen and the 4 above average starters he somehow pulls out of a hat. That's not asking too much, is it?

 

In a perfect scenario, Burton almost never sees action before the seventh inning.

 

Anyway, we're tangenting here... No need to split more hairs.

 

I don't mean to imply that the bullpen is perfect by any means... Just that this team has larger holes that need plugging.

[diehardtwinsfan]

In regards to the MI, what is out there? From the list of FA and players discussed not much. That could be why bullpen is the second priority. There is more of a chance to improve the bullpen than the MI.

 

There are a couple of intriguing 1 year type options that have been mentioned here and in a few other places (Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew), but not much else. Both would be playing for a decent payday and have minimal cost... not bad options, but that's about it.

[minn55441]

I think we are looking at this wrong. TR said in the interview that the bullpen is the second priority. He also said that he will bring in competition for third base. He has the huge list of players on his wall. I think he knows exactly who his options are at third and the bullpen. For some reason, I think the competition for Plouffe and also the MI addition will be through rule 5 and through trades. The additional arms will come in the form of FA signings. I think there a bunch of arms out there that they have identified as good additions to the pen and they will go get them. The position player additions might be throw-in's executed during a trade for a pitcher. It may just be a case where TR knows the RP he wants and they will be early signings. The pitching will be addressed first, It is the number one and number two priorities.

[Brandon]

I am going to go out on a limb for the bullpen and suggest the return of Latroy Hawkins. He can be had on a 1 year deal at this stage of his career and he is reliable and will likley cost between 2-3 million and he knows Gardy and Rick and is familliar with their philosophies and meant to resign here anyway and he has a fanclub here so more fans in the stands...

 

The 3B competition will come from Inge. I bet they sign him to a 1 year 1-2 million. Terry Ryan said his biggest concern about Plouffe is his ability to field at 3B. Inge is a good fielder. He can also be the 3rd string Catcher and catch maybe 50-100 innings throughout the season next year. I think he can even play a little second base if he goes on an offensive tear for a while.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You know, Inge isn't the worst idea in the world. It kicks Butera off the roster and provides a backup option to Plouffe. I forgot about the guy.

[PseudoSABR]

Joey Devine became a FA today and would certainly be worth a minor league deal...