MLB Trade Rumors: Falvey on Deadline Approach

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Something I'd like to bring up: I think we should all be thrilled at how well the team has done.

 

Did anyone really expect this team to dominate, let alone contend, the way they have?

 

It could very well be the FO didn't expect what happened and now they're trying to figure out just how to capitalize on their success. 

 

The phrase, "Victims of their own success" comes to mind.

 

And, I can also pardon the FO for not running out and getting help right away, because how could they have expected the success of the Twins to be sustainable over the course of this year?

I don't know. I think it's unexpected in a matter of degree (98 win pace, record HR pace), but otherwise, I think we absolutely should have expected to contend this year. Maybe we expected to be a few games behind Cleveland instead of a few games ahead, or even with Cleveland, or in the wild card race, or on a 86-90 win pace, but I think we should have expected to be in this general position in 2019, with a prime-age team ready to strike. (And I'd argue we had enough prime-age players -- Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Berrios -- that there was a fair chance we'd beat those expectations a bit too.)

 

2001 was a bit of a surprise. 2015 and even 2017 too. But there's no way the FO should be surprised by the 2019 results, to the extent that they don't know how to approach the in-season trade market.

[USAFChief]

I don't know. I think it's unexpected in a matter of degree (98 win pace, record HR pace), but otherwise, I think we absolutely should have expected to contend this year. Maybe we expected to be a few games behind Cleveland instead of a few games ahead, or even with Cleveland, or in the wild card race, or on a 86-90 win pace, but I think we should have expected to be in this general position in 2019, with a prime-age team ready to strike. (And I'd argue we had enough prime-age players -- Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Berrios -- that there was a fair chance we'd beat those expectations a bit too.)

 

2001 was a bit of a surprise. 2015 and even 2017 too. But there's no way the FO should be surprised by the 2019 results, to the extent that they don't know how to approach the in-season trade market.

Precisely. If the current core wasn’t at a point where it could contend, it never would be. Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Rogers, Polsnco and crew are at exactly the stage where if it’s going to work, it’s time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't know. I think it's unexpected in a matter of degree (98 win pace, record HR pace), but otherwise, I think we absolutely should have expected to contend this year. Maybe we expected to be a few games behind Cleveland instead of a few games ahead, or even with Cleveland, or in the wild card race, or on a 86-90 win pace, but I think we should have expected to be in this general position in 2019, with a prime-age team ready to strike. (And I'd argue we had enough prime-age players -- Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Berrios -- that there was a fair chance we'd beat those expectations a bit too.)

 

2001 was a bit of a surprise. 2015 and even 2017 too. But there's no way the FO should be surprised by the 2019 results, to the extent that they don't know how to approach the in-season trade market.

Agreed. Young teams with a lot of talent tend to explode to prominence quickly and the writing was on the wall; provided this team wasn’t injured or development didn’t stall *again*, be prepared for contention and a win total well above your neutral expectation (which was probably in the low- to mid-80s). It only takes a couple of young players stepping forward to turn an 85 win team into a 90 win team. Add a couple of other things going right and you're quickly looking at a 95 win team.

[howeda7]

They're already setting us up to be satisfied with getting a 2019 version of Zack Duke and nothing else. If they do, Falvey is officially Terry Ryan II and we will never win the big one until they are gone.

[Blake]

 

I sure hope the current front office isn't shocked they are in this position... There should be a plan to capitalize on the banked wins from earlier this year.

Van, you understand the numbers behind the game far better than I do, and probably ever will.

 

Based on numbers going in, was there really any indication this team would achieve what they have? (obviously, I think "no" but, you may have better information than I do)

 

I recall an interview Andy MacPhail gave, years ago, talking about the success of the 1987 Twins. If I remember correctly, MacPhail basically said they (The Twins) contended before expected. (91 series, anyone?)

 

Now, MacPhail made some good moves for the '87 Twins and the end result was everything Twins fans could have dreamed of.

 

I sort of wonder if the current FO is in the same boat MacPhail was?

 

Again, I hope the FO makes astute trades rather than splashy trades.

 

Oh, and they find someone willing to take Blake Parker off their hands.

[Vanimal46]

They're already setting us up to be satisfied with getting a 2019 version of Zack Duke and nothing else. If they do, Falvey is officially Terry Ryan II and we will never win the big one until they are gone.

When you say 'they are gone', if you mean the Pohlads I agree.

[Blake]

 

Precisely. If the current core wasn’t at a point where it could contend, it never would be. Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Rogers, Polsnco and crew are at exactly the stage where if it’s going to work, it’s time.

I was under the impression this was "fish or cut bait" year for the aforementioned players.

 

No step forward, they gone.

[howeda7]

 

When you say 'they are gone', if you mean the Pohlads I agree.

I wouldn't be opposed to that. But the refusal to make trades and part with prospects falls !00% on the front office.

[Tomj14]

 

Precisely. If the current core wasn’t at a point where it could contend, it never would be. Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Rogers, Polsnco and crew are at exactly the stage where if it’s going to work, it’s time.

and if they didn't think they had a chance why get Cruz and Marvin?

If that was their thought process it was a mistake to get those guys, the prudent thing to do would have been to see what minor league prospects that were coming up to the 40 man or on the 40 man could help the team going forward. IMO

[Seth Stohs]

 

So if I'm going to an auction, and the person next to me picks out the thing I really like and says "So, are you interested in that?" and I know that five people around me might also be interested, I'm sure as heck not going to say "That's great, I really want it."  I will probably shrug my shoulders and mumble.

 

What happens if I yell out "I've gotta have that"?  Nothing good, that's for sure.

 

Why would Falvey, or any GM, want to sound desperate when being asked about possible trades right now?

 

Great post!! Thank you!

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Exactly. Kansas City is an excellent example. However, I doubt many of their fans would give up their 2015 championship to have a more competitive team today.

Correct correct correct. Even the 2014 season alone was probably worth it, let alone 2014-2015 together.

 

World Series championships: 12-year-olds love them; and championships make scheduling old timer reunions so much easier.

[SomeGuy]

Bullpen has been credited 15 losses, 9th fewest in MLB. 12 blown saves, 12th fewest in MLB. ERA ranks 16th, FIP ranks 12th, xFIP ranks 13th. WAR is ranked 5th.

 

This is largely an average if not slightly above average bullpen. For a team that has vastly exceeded expectations in all other aspects of the game (We have a top offense, our starting rotation ranks in the top 5 in ERA and WAR, also have a top defense), we are in a pretty good spot at the deadline. I agree that we should look to add 1-2 depth pieces for our bullpen. It would be nice to add one of the top relievers but a couple depth pieces would stabilize what is already average. An elite offense, elite defense, great rotation, and average bullpen will play just fine in the postseason.

[alarp33]

 

Bullpen has been credited 15 losses, 9th fewest in MLB. 12 blown saves, 12th fewest in MLB. ERA ranks 16th, FIP ranks 12th, xFIP ranks 13th. WAR is ranked 5th.

 

This is largely an average if not slightly above average bullpen. For a team that has vastly exceeded expectations in all other aspects of the game (We have a top offense, our starting rotation ranks in the top 5 in ERA and WAR, also have a top defense), we are in a pretty good spot at the deadline. I agree that we should look to add 1-2 depth pieces for our bullpen. It would be nice to add one of the top relievers but a couple depth pieces would stabilize what is already average. An elite offense, elite defense, great rotation, and average bullpen will play just fine in the postseason.

 

FWIW, since June 13th the Bullpen has accumulated 8 of those 12 Blown Saves, which is 2nd in MLB. They also only have 13 holds in that time. So they are 13 for 21 in hold opps. I would say that is.. not good

[Loosey]

 

Ultimately it comes down to organizational philosophy. 

 

Do you want you window cracked open for 10 years

OR

Do you want you window all the way open for 5 years

OR

Do you want to blow the window wide open for 2 years

 

 

Cracked open windows are cheaper than blown open windows.

 

Cracked open windows provide more job security for high impact employees (Front Office, Manager, etc)

 

Blown Open windows almost always are preferred by fans.

 

Small to mid market team probably don't win championships very often without the "Blown Open" approach, but it can also send those teams into a multi year downswing

I agree, but I think this team is built pretty soundly to be able to handle a blown open window from both current major league roster depth and in the Minor Leagues.  Their two best prospects are playing positions the current major league roster is currently employing an All-Star (Polanco) and a should be All-Star (Kepler) - Both recently extended on very team friendly contract. Obviously if you give away one of those prospects it's going to hurt, but they should get really good players in return who are controllable.

 

On the pitching front I think they need to remember TINSTAAPP.  And if they blow the window open and get the parts they want, winning a World Series will bring in a lot of money, and will hopefully show the Pohlads winning generates more profits than being cheap and playing the margin game.  So trade Balozovich, go sign someone better in the offseason.

 

 

 

 

[Loosey]

 

Exactly. Kansas City is an excellent example. However, I doubt many of their fans would give up their 2015 championship to have a more competitive team today.

They were in back to back World Series.  However, much of Kansas City's downfall in the years since was inability to afford the players who got them there and veterans aging out.

 

This Twins team is built differently than the Royals.  The core of the this team are reaching their potential just now and hopefully will now be in a window of contention for the next 3-5 years.  

 

Trading away prospects to supplement and improve the roster will not impair the future of this team much.  Maybe with prospects it extends window of competitiveness, but that isn't guaranteed either.  I don't see a Royalesque decline.

[Blake]

 

I also doubt they get that championship if they hadn’t made trade(s) that stung a little.

I’d prefer a swing and miss over taking a called strike three. Nobody ever hit a HR with the bat on their shoulder.

Yeah, but what about the Triple Play grounder? Or, double play grounder? Huh? Didja think of that!

 

The FO is going to have to risk something. It will be interesting to see how much the FO risks.

[Roaddog]

I'm ok with making a bold trade. As long as it's not something that cripples the future. I'm probably in the minority, but I'm ok with trading Lewis in the right deal.

[twinkiesfan11]

Imagine how much better Houston would be in the future if they hadn't traded prospects for Cole, Verlander, Presley, Osuna, Díaz

Houston clearly won the Verlander and Cole trades both at the time of the trades and in hindsight by capitalizing on Detroit’s commitment to rebuild and a down year by Gerrit Cole. Other than Daz Cameron they never gave up one of their top 5 ranked prospects in any of these deals. This is exactly how the Twins should approach the deadline and in a vacuum demonstrates that they should be able to make meaningful upgrades without giving up the highest valued assets in the system.

[Obsvr]

In before 99% of TD over-reacts...

 

Ooops....too late.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Falvey was on with Doogie (the source for MLBTR) it's worth listening to the first half as Hildenberger talks mechanical dajustments on his road to recovery/back to the bigs.

 

https://www.skornorth.com/the-scoop-with-doogie/2019/07/trevor-hildenberger-derek-falvey-rashede-hageman-and-twins-trade-notes-ep-245/

 

I'm still disappointed by Falvey's remarks, but I'm hopeful he's playing coy. 

 

 

[MMMordabito]

I hear Cody Allen was told to get his S%^ of the top bunk.  Fellow bullpen-fix Wily Peralta will likely be signing a minor league deal soon.

 

"We see something in his delivery that Wes Johnson can fix (even though he is in Minnesota while Wily will be in Rochester).  He's basically going to be a right-handed Chapman when we're done, and JP was OK with expenditure.  We'd like to thank JP for his willingness to loosen the purse strings and help us make this deal that should really lock things down during the stretch run."

[pierre75275]

I have no inside information but I think promising the farm for whatever we can get one week b4 the trade deadline would be idiotic.

 

Favley saying what did...is basically all he can say at this point. Saying anything other than he did would cost him any leverage at the negotiating table that he had workes the last 6 months to get.

[SomeGuy]

 

FWIW, since June 13th the Bullpen has accumulated 8 of those 12 Blown Saves, which is 2nd in MLB. They also only have 13 holds in that time. So they are 13 for 21 in hold opps. I would say that is.. not good

So for the other 67 games we have played (2/3 of our season so far) they had 4 blown saves. I would say that is...good

[alarp33]

 

So for the other 67 games we have played (2/3 of our season so far) they had 4 blown saves. I would say that is...good

 

I would say the last 40 days is a tad bit more relevant than April results. If you choose to ignore the most recent data then I'm guessing you are totally satisifed with the bullpen and see no reason to make any moves? 

[pierre75275]

Also...Falvley saying he preferred not to have a rental, I agree with that. If I am trading good prospects even from surplus I want more than just a rental. I want somebody to help us next year.

[SomeGuy]

 

I would say the last 40 days is a tad bit more relevant than April results. If you choose to ignore the most recent data then I'm guessing you are totally satisifed with the bullpen and see no reason to make any moves? 

But what has changed since then?  This is more or less the same unit that was pretty good for the first 2/3 of the season. Why was the first 3 months an illusion but the last month is not?  Kepler is batting .235 over the last 30 days, Cron .183, and Buxton .158, should we be trying to replace them because the recent history is all that matters?

 

I am advocating we add 1-2 depth pieces to the pen and always have been but I think it is overstated how bad they have been collectively. I think I saw someone suggest firing the GM if we don't get the all of the best relievers available.

[ashbury]

So if I'm going to an auction, and the person next to me picks out the thing I really like and says "So, are you interested in that?" and I know that five people around me might also be interested, I'm sure as heck not going to say "That's great, I really want it."  I will probably shrug my shoulders and mumble.

 

What happens if I yell out "I've gotta have that"?  Nothing good, that's for sure.

 

Why would Falvey, or any GM, want to sound desperate when being asked about possible trades right now?

That's fair and I don't think anybody would disagree with the discretion you are suggesting, but I think you are overestimating the secrecy and bluffing that is possible. This isn't poker or an auction or anything similar.

[howeda7]

 

So if I'm going to an auction, and the person next to me picks out the thing I really like and says "So, are you interested in that?" and I know that five people around me might also be interested, I'm sure as heck not going to say "That's great, I really want it."  I will probably shrug my shoulders and mumble.

 

What happens if I yell out "I've gotta have that"?  Nothing good, that's for sure.

 

Why would Falvey, or any GM, want to sound desperate when being asked about possible trades right now?

If the item is an umbrella and it's pouring rain, and you don't have one, it doesn't really matter what you say, does it?

[Tomj14]

 

Houston clearly won the Verlander and Cole trades both at the time of the trades and in hindsight by capitalizing on Detroit’s commitment to rebuild and a down year by Gerrit Cole. Other than Daz Cameron they never gave up one of their top 5 ranked prospects in any of these deals. This is exactly how the Twins should approach the deadline and in a vacuum demonstrates that they should be able to make meaningful upgrades without giving up the highest valued assets in the system.

for Cole it was for two former top 100 prospects and a former 1st round pick.

I can think of a couple of Twins that might fit that bill

That trade was also in the offseason for what that is worth, but if they only way you make a trade a fleecing the other team good luck with that option.

I will say it for about 100th time, I am not saying trade a top five guy for a rental, everybody is saying trade a few from depth for that. I am saying trade a guy or two in the top five for a really good controllable pitcher, because the odds say neither of those two guys are ever going to be a good as the player you got.

Sure that could back fire, but is it easy explaining to the fans why they let a super star go trying to win the world series than it is explaining you were to afford to even go for it.

Imagine in 2016 if the Twins would have traded Romero, Gonzo, Jay, Chargois, Stewart, Burdi, Kirilloff, Rortvedt, Mejia and Gordon for a couple of top end guys. How bad would have that have hurt them today? Kirilloff would sting and maybe in a couple of years Rortvedt would as well.

(That was the Twins top 10 prospects that year in some order)

Yes, Lewis and Kirilloff are probably superior prospects to them, but are the next 8 so superior to those?

 

[Brandon]

I will be disappointed if we don't get at least one good solid reliever. And I mean a good one. Giles, will Smith, I mean how much can they cost?