Depue: The Case To Trade Royce Lewis

[Seth Stohs]

https://www.skornorth.com/twins-2/2019/07/the-case-for-trading-royce-lewis/

 

As the trade deadline gets closer, Jake Depue from Skor North outlines the reasons to consider trading Royce Lewis.Agree? DIsagree?

[Cornholio]

According to the baseball trade value simulator, Lewis has more future value than Mike Trout. Any deal for Lewis would need to be huge.

[Thrylos]

 

According to the baseball trade value simulator, Lewis has more future value than Mike Trout. Any deal for Lewis would need to be huge.

 

That simulator said that Larnach has more value that Stroman+Giles.    If Lewis has more value than Trout, I'd make these 2 trades in a heartbeat and call it a day

[ashbury]

According to the baseball trade value simulator, Lewis has more future value than Mike Trout. Any deal for Lewis would need to be huge.

I suppose most of us understand that this trade-value tool factors in remaining contract value, to assess how GMs would evaluate a possible trade. It doesn't mean a forecast that Lewis will be a better player than Trout.

 

And yes, a trade involving Lewis would need to be huge. We don't need a simulator to know that.

[twinsfanstreif]

 

https://www.skornorth.com/twins-2/2019/07/the-case-for-trading-royce-lewis/

 

As the trade deadline gets closer, Jake Depue from Skor North outlines the reasons to consider trading Royce Lewis.Agree? DIsagree?

He makes a good point but we better get a damn good pitcher back and he better be controllable . I'd hate to give up Lewis for a pitcher we could lose soon, especially if Lewis turns into and all star level player. The potential upside for Lewis would give me a hard pause for sure

[Thrylos]

If one views Lewis as a shortstop, given the fact that Polanco will be there for the next 5 years or so and is probably Lewis's ceiling with the bat, Lewis might seem tradeable without opening a whole.  I see Lewis as a centefielder and given Buxton's contract/future uncertainty, I would hate to trade him quite yet.  Also, I am not sure that he is at the peak of his value still, which is another deterrent.   I'd trade Kirilloff before him.  Kepler is probably close to his ceiling and he will be around for a while, he does not have much position flexibility and he is in higher in his value curve than Lewis.

 

I'd certainly trade either for someone like Syndergaard

[gunnarthor]

Yep, trade for Thor. 

[Tomj14]

There are very few players I would trade Lewis for, that player would have to be a starting pitcher with multiple years of control.

I asked a couple of friends that live in Chicago if they regret the Gleyber Torres (yes there were more) for Aroldis Chapman trade and every one of them said no, and would trade their top prospect for another world series every time. I asked what if they would have just gotten to the world series and lost, and they all said they would do that trade again just for the chance.

(A couple did say they if they wouldn't have gotten to the world series they probably would be pretty mad now, since they haven't been back.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd probably trade Graterol before Lewis if I'm getting pitching... but that's me. Graterol cannot stay healthy. Let that be someone else's problem...

 

As for trading Lewis... for the right package, yes. We're win now and we really don't need him. It had better be a good package. I woudln't flip him for MadBum... I'm skeptical of Thor too given how bad he's been this year. 

[FlauerPauer]

I'd include him in any major deal that would net Noah Syndagaard or Luis Castillo. 

[birddog]

Very tough call to make, but when you are dealing from a position of strength for a position of need you do what you have to. The Twins have been giving us roller coaster rides for the past few years and, like Forrest Gump's mom said, "You never know what you're gonna get." We may not replicate this season--ever.

 

Our minor leagues are stocked with solid prospects due to nice trades Falvine has made. We know we are in a pennant race with a realistic-good chance to win our division. That may not come around next year. Sixty percent of our rotation may not be back next year. Do we replace them with a Lance Lynn of 2018 or the ace he has become this year? You never know, so when  you have a shot you have to go for it. Don't mortgage the future, but if it fills your major weaknesses with top-of-the-line players under team control for a few years, even Royce Lewis can be traded.

[Blake]

Lewis is a premium player who plays at a position the organization has plenty of depth at.

 

If the right offer is made, I say go for it.

 

But it needs to be, as the author mentions, a blockbuster deal.

[amjgt]

MadBum - No

Stroman - No

Boyd - No

Thor - Getting closer, but no

Grienke - No, unless Arizona eats a ton of money

deGrom - Yes

[Shaitan]

I'm hardly concerned about having too many quality SS.

 

In about 30 seconds from my own memory, here are some players who started at SS. A player who can field this position (at age 18) can field any position later to at least an adequate degree.

 

Cuddyer, Sano, Danny Santana, Joe Nathan, Plouffe, Dozier...many more I'm forgetting.

 

 

[SwainZag]

Lewis is said to be a very good CF as well

[curt1965]

I would rather trade Lewis rather than Kirilloff! My prediction is that the FO will watch all the premium starters and relievers get scarfed up, and the Twins will settle for the 2nd and 3rd tier players. History is on my side, but I hope I’m wrong. Small market teams never make big deadline deals!

[jkcarew]

Now’s the time, if the right player is available. If/when he shows he’s going to hit, you won’t want to trade him...and, if the bat continues to lag, his value starts dropping and you don’t get the return you’d want for a #1 overall draft pick. The upside remains high, but for me, the ‘off-limits’ guys don’t come around that often...they’re the ones you pretty much know are going to be stud hitters or, in the case of middle infield types, you know are going to be stud defensive shortstops. Lewis doesn’t seem to fit that. Controllable pitching.

[Dman]

If the right deal came along you could trade Lewis but I think they trade Larnach before Lewis.  The FO really seems to like Lewis's intangibles and they believe he will hit.  Maybe not as well as Larnach but Lewis plays a premium position at either Short or Center.  I just don't see the Twins pulling the trigger but I guess never say never.

[Bart07]

Would not trade Lewis at all as he has the potential to be the face of the franchise. Also just watching the Futures Game shows that he will bring as much on the field as he would bring to the clubhouse. His personality around this team in the future will be huge.

 

I understand what you say about Cubs fans with Chapman and Torres, but it would be a different story if Cubs didn't win the world series and that is the gamble you would be taking. I don't think it would be pleasant to see us go all in, miss out on a world series and watch Lewis become the face of the franchise somewhere else.

[killertwinfan]

I agree that the discussion should be held by the Twins and potential suitors, however I don't see how you ever get serious about dealing him.  I believe the converse to the argument/point is more close to reality.  If you have really good depth, I believe you trade your depth, not your best player. Mostly because trading your best player has way more inherent risk. No body will question trading your depth, it makes the most common sense to both insiders and outsiders.  And, it is really good depth so you should be able to acquire good talent at whatever position you seek.  I don't see it happening.  

[ashbury]

If you have really good depth, I believe you trade your depth, not your best player.

I don't know if you can make hard and fast rules like that. I agree you don't win with inferior talent. It comes down to how big a gap you see between your top guy and the next one or two, how much you trust your talent evaluators, and how differently the other team sees your guys so that maybe they are overpaying. You could be better off keeping your #2 guy in the depth chart, and getting a stud at a different position in return for your #1 because the other team likes him even more. You just have to be, you know, right in all your evaluations, and that's super hard.

 

I don't think our depth at SS (or CF where Lewis might land) is so outstanding, either. We have a potential glut coming at corner-defense positions, so that is more of what motivates away from trading Lewis, in my book. If we ever have a glut of SS knocking at the door in the majors it's looking like it will play out in terms of 2B instead, so that's a secondary place to look at trading - trade the top guy you think is most likely to land at 2B, and with Lewis's fallback spot looking like CF, that also motivates against picking him as the trade bait.

 

So I'm basically in agreement with you, but it's a lot more nuanced than a rule.

[Tomj14]

 

I agree that the discussion should be held by the Twins and potential suitors, however I don't see how you ever get serious about dealing him.  I believe the converse to the argument/point is more close to reality.  If you have really good depth, I believe you trade your depth, not your best player. Mostly because trading your best player has way more inherent risk. No body will question trading your depth, it makes the most common sense to both insiders and outsiders.  And, it is really good depth so you should be able to acquire good talent at whatever position you seek.  I don't see it happening.  

You deal him because the return you are getting is good, for example a starting top end type starting pitcher that has a few years of control.  For example Luis Castillo or THOR.

You don't trade him for a rental or in my mind a relief pitcher.

But when you can trade a prospects who is only in high ball for a major league regular for a few years, most of the time you are going to win that trade.

Do you think anybody in Houston cares they traded Colin Moran and Joe Musgrove for Cole?

[amjgt]

 

I'm hardly concerned about having too many quality SS.

 

In about 30 seconds from my own memory, here are some players who started at SS. A player who can field this position (at age 18) can field any position later to at least an adequate degree.

 

Cuddyer, Sano, Danny Santana, Joe Nathan, Plouffe, Dozier...many more I'm forgetting.

 

Is that list supposed to make me NOT want to trade Lewis?