Twins' Bullpen

[stringer bell]

It appears the Twins will add Adalberto Mejía to the bullpen prior to playing Oakland today. The current bullpen has seven occupants, all of whom have thrown over 20 major league innings at the halfway point of the year. With the anticipated adding of one or two arms from outside the organization, one or two of these guys will have to be optioned or DFAed. Who should stay and who should go? I've provided a small table with the numbers. To my knowledge, only Duffey and Harper have minor league options remaining.

 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1RH1IkQpLBRAmbGXnTtYlWW098bbbFKDw5qd8o512W18/edit?usp=sharing

 

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

AFAIC, Blake Parker has the least value going forward, then Morin.

 

At the least, losing Parker would mean not having to watch him get ready to throw a pitch.

[stringer bell]

 

AFAIC, Blake Parker has the least value going forward, then Morin.

 

At the least, losing Parker would mean not having to watch him get ready to throw a pitch.

Agreed. More than most, I think Morin has gotten by with smoke and mirrors, Harper as well. 

[nicksaviking]

Rogers

_______

Duffey

May

Magill

Harper

Mejia

Parker

Morin

 

 

That's my order of expendablity from least to most. Everyone below the line is eligible to be upgraded, though Duffey is a few more good appearances away from finding his way above the line.

[Cody Pirkl]

 

Agreed. More than most, I think Morin has gotten by with smoke and mirrors, Harper as well. 

Morin I absolutely agree with. Harper though I think can still be valuable. His last outing was bad but it was after throwing 2 straight days. He's a soft tosser who limits walks and homers and the strikeout rate isn't half bad either. He's a pretty good complementary piece who has little margin for error but can give hitters fits. He's a guy I'd like to stick around, but only if we pick up another guy or two that push the leverage in his appearances down.

 

[dbminn]

I'm glad Mejia is back. He could be a helpful bullpen piece for the rest of the season. He could also be added to a trade for pitching at the deadline. He could be of interest to a team that needs a starter to fill their rotation while their prospects develop (for example, Toronto, Detroit or SF). That could mean one less young prospect included in a trade.

[pierre75275]

Harper or Morin will be optioned

[stringer bell]

Harper or Morin will be optioned

No options for Morin IIRC.

[stringer bell]

Morin I absolutely agree with. Harper though I think can still be valuable. His last outing was bad but it was after throwing 2 straight days. He's a soft tosser who limits walks and homers and the strikeout rate isn't half bad either. He's a pretty good complementary piece who has little margin for error but can give hitters fits. He's a guy I'd like to stick around, but only if we pick up another guy or two that push the leverage in his appearances down.

I fear that more looks at Harper will expose him, much like Hildenberger. He’s been good thus far, but soft-tossers have a tough time in today’s hi-velo MLB.

[mendozaline]

 

I fear that more looks at Harper will expose him, much like Hildenberger. He’s been good thus far, but soft-tossers have a tough time in today’s hi-velo MLB.

But I think it's also important to have a mix. Duffey, McGill, May, and Rogers are all bringing it around 95 and up. I would assume if we pick up an addition or two, they will also be in that range. It doesn't hurt to have a guy who is a soft tosser to change up the looks mid-game. However, if hitters see him more than once in a series then yes he will have a tough time as we saw recently. 

[longstrangetrip]

I agree...good news about Mejia.

 

Don't know whom he will replace, but isn't it some cause for celebration that the guy mentioned most (Morin) has an ERA of 1.74, a WHIP of .92, and has only given up a run (and only 1 run) in 4 of his 21 appearances?  A lot of teams would love to have a guy with that record in their bullpen.  I get that he doesn't always look dominating, but I would argue that he definitely has a major league changeup...and a good changeup is the toughest pitch to hit.  I love the feel good story that is Ryan Harper, but he has given up runs in 3 of his last 6 outings.  He would be my choice to go down.

[jud6312]

 

With the anticipated adding of one or two arms from outside the organization, 

 

I'm going to roll with "adding Mejia is like making a trade" so I don't get upset if they whiff on the trade market.

 

It's handy because you can repeat that with Allen, Krol, and whomever else they bring up. 

[rghrbek]

Looks like Thorpe was sent down to make room.

[Riverbrian]

Based on usage... Morin has to be at the top of the list. 

 

If the Twins acquire bullpen or starter depth at the trade deadline. You will have both 40 man and 25 man considerations to consider. 

 

If we trade for Giles for example and it doesn't involve a current Twins player on the 40 man roster (Gordon or Wade or Whoever). Then Morin DFA for the 40 man spot and 25 man spot.

 

If the trade for Giles involved Gordon or Wade. (The easiest move would be to Option Harper or Duffey) to clear a spot on the 25 man. Morin remains in the bullpen... not a fan of this because Morin based on usage should be the first to go. I guess we could go ahead and DFA Morin for the 25 man roster spot and add someone else to the 40 man from our minor league depth. 

 

Bottom Line: Acquisitions from outside the organization are coming. At least they better be. We don't know how many but it could be quite a few. 

 

Morin, Magill, Harper and Duffey should be pitching for their existence right now and I am hopeful that Baldelli will allow them to actually pitch for their existence until the hammer falls. 

 

And the hammer better fall!!! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Linus]

This is an easy question. Other than Rogers and maybe Duffy they can all go.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Based on usage... Morin has to be at the top of the list.

 

If the Twins acquire bullpen or starter depth at the trade deadline. You will have both 40 man and 25 man considerations to consider.

 

If we trade for Giles for example and it doesn't involve a current Twins player on the 40 man roster (Gordon or Wade or Whoever). Then Morin DFA for the 40 man spot and 25 man spot.

 

If the trade for Giles involved Gordon or Wade. (The easiest move would be to Option Harper or Duffey) to clear a spot on the 25 man. Morin remains in the bullpen... not a fan of this because Morin based on usage should be the first to go. I guess we could go ahead and DFA Morin for the 25 man roster spot and add someone else to the 40 man from our minor league depth.

 

Bottom Line: Acquisitions from outside the organization are coming. At least they better be. We don't know how many but it could be quite a few.

 

Morin, Magill, Harper and Duffey should be pitching for their existence right now and I am hopeful that Baldelli will allow them to actually pitch for their existence until the hammer falls.

 

And the hammer better fall!!!

Add May to this list. He’s been ok as middle relievers go, but erratic and hasn’t taken any steps forward.

 

Duffey has been better lately, but needs some consistency too.

 

Agreed, Morin is first on my list to go.

[DocBauer]

Add May to this list. He’s been ok as middle relievers go, but erratic and hasn’t taken any steps forward.

 

Duffey has been better lately, but needs some consistency too.

 

Agreed, Morin is first on my list to go.

Respectfully, going to disagree.

 

I think May has looked much better the past few weeks. He's not where he needs to be, but his breaking ball is finally starting to work again.

 

I'm not ready to trust Duffey 100% yet, but he does look like a completely different player with his new slider and improved velocity. I'm almost ready to believe.

 

I do, however, fully agree Morin is the first out. He has to be.

 

Second out is really hard for me. Is it Magill or Parker? Magill has been frustratingly inconsistent, but has really nice stuff if he could ever find some real consistency. But while Parker has lesser stuff, he has far more experience.

 

Which one of those would be next if a couple arms are added?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Respectfully, going to disagree.

 

I think May has looked much better the past few weeks. He's not where he needs to be, but his breaking ball is finally starting to work again.

 

I'm not ready to trust Duffey 100% yet, but he does look like a completely different player with his new slider and improved velocity. I'm almost ready to believe.

 

I do, however, fully agree Morin is the first out. He has to be.

 

Second out is really hard for me. Is it Magill or Parker? Magill has been frustratingly inconsistent, but has really nice stuff if he could ever find some real consistency. But while Parker has lesser stuff, he has far more experience.

 

Which one of those would be next if a couple arms are added?

Parker would prolly be 2 on my list.

 

 

Re: May-

 

Below one is May, the other is Magill. Depending on the extent of value put on the pitcher’s “ability” to keep the ball in the park. They are very comparable.

 

M1

K9 10.8

Bb9 4.73

HR9 1.01

WPA .54

 

M2

K9 9.79

Bb9 5.04

HR9 .59

WPA .79

 

Depends on who you think you can continue to work with. Maybe May still has the higher upside over Magill and Magill is the third one out, if you need to make room for a third reliever.

[terrydactyls]

IMHO, I don't really care who goes if quality arms are added. Any of the following (in no particular order) are fine:. Morin, Harper Magill, Duffy, Parker, Mejia, etc. Just keep Rogers.

[yarnivek1972]

IMHO, I don't really care who goes if quality arms are added. Any of the following (in no particular order) are fine:. Morin, Harper Magill, Duffy, Parker, Mejia, etc. Just keep Rogers.

Thing is, there needs to be a “pecking order”. If the Twins acquire a reliever or two someone has to go. Some of those decisions would be irreversible. Because if the Twins cut them, someone will likely pick them up. So the evaluators need to guess right about who is likely to be good going forward.

[DocBauer]

Parker would prolly be 2 on my list.

Re: May-

Below one is May, the other is Magill. Depending on the extent of value put on the pitcher’s “ability” to keep the ball in the park. They are very comparable.

M1

K9 10.8

Bb9 4.73

HR9 1.01

WPA .54

M2

K9 9.79

Bb9 5.04

HR9 .59

WPA .79

Depends on who you think you can continue to work with. Maybe May still has the higher upside over Magill and Magill is the third one out, if you need to make room for a third reliever.

Great breakdown!

 

Basically, May is better in ever category except the HR ball. He is also younger, and holds more future value, IMO. It may or may not be fair, but I wonder how the numbers would compare for June. I could be wrong, but it just appears to me May is settling down and looking more and more like the guy we saw the last half of 2018.

 

I can't disagree with your choice of Parker, despite his experience and decent career thus far. Magill has far less experience, but simply throws nastier stuff. Were it not his propensity for wildness of occasion, such as that road trip in June where he imploded, I think it would be an easier choice of the two.

[DocBauer]

Thing is, there needs to be a “pecking order”. If the Twins acquire a reliever or two someone has to go. Some of those decisions would be irreversible. Because if the Twins cut them, someone will likely pick them up. So the evaluators need to guess right about who is likely to be good going forward.

Exactly.

 

As we've been debating, who is most likely out 1st, 2nd, etc. I think, universally, it's agreed Morin is #1. Parker has had a decent career overall, and even started tbe season well. But he's been scary ever since. Magill has even better stuff, but gets wild just after he looks nasty. I'm really torn who is second out the door and glad I don't have to make the decision. I just hope they make the right one.

[terrydactyls]

Thing is, there needs to be a “pecking order”. If the Twins acquire a reliever or two someone has to go. Some of those decisions would be irreversible. Because if the Twins cut them, someone will likely pick them up. So the evaluators need to guess right about who is likely to be good going forward.

That's why I don't care. It is not up to me to decide who goes.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Great breakdown!

 

Basically, May is better in ever category except the HR ball. He is also younger, and holds more future value, IMO. It may or may not be fair, but I wonder how the numbers would compare for June. I could be wrong, but it just appears to me May is settling down and looking more and more like the guy we saw the last half of 2018.

 

I can't disagree with your choice of Parker, despite his experience and decent career thus far. Magill has far less experience, but simply throws nastier stuff. Were it not his propensity for wildness of occasion, such as that road trip in June where he imploded, I think it would be an easier choice of the two.

Magill is M1, May is M2, the tell is WPA. May gets used in higher leverage situations, and keeps the ball in the park better, but otherwise Magill has higher K rate and lower BB rate.

[stringer bell]

I updated the bullpen stats as of today. Rogers is clearly the best option. Everyone behind him is up for grabs.