Cubs to sign Kimbrel

[Coobelz]

3 years 45 M

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/cubs-to-sign-craig-kimbrel.html

 

Well...dang it!

[lecroy24fan]

Overpaid. He was not good in the 2nd half last year or the playoffs. He's basically getting the QO for the other 2 years and prorated this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So is that $43m cash or prorated for this season?

 

If it's prorated, that's not a lot of money. If it isn't prorated, that seems about right (and I'm 50/50 on the Twins committing that kind of money to a reliever so I'm disappointed but not outraged over it).

[USAFChief]

So is that $43m cash or prorated for this season?

 

If it's prorated, that's not a lot of money. If it isn't prorated, that seems about right (and I'm 50/50 on the Twins committing that kind of money to a reliever so I'm disappointed but not outraged over it).

In the 2019 MLB environment, either way it's not a ton of money. If he was truly a priority, that was very doable.

 

Disappointed. Same old, same old.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder how much more money it would have taken for the Twins to win that deal.

[Nine of twelve]

Yes, given the current AL standings I think the Twins should be pursuing upgrades to the current roster. And, yes, Kimbrel probably would have been a good acquisition for this year's team. So it is disappointing but it's over now and we have to see what is next. We have to hope that Falvine have a plan in mind given that Kimbrel is off the table. I choose to stay optimistic.

[akmanak]

Same Twins management and another reason why I hate getting excited about them only knowing they wont sign anyone who isn't discounted.

[USAFChief]

I wonder how much more money it would have taken for the Twins to win that deal.

I'm guessing it would have taken the belief by Kimbrel that ownership/management would be willing to do what's needed.

[Coobelz]

The Kimbrel has fallen apart based on the playoffs argument is played out in my opinion. Yes, he gave up runs in 4 strait playoffs appearances last year. He also held them scoreless over his last 4.

 

96/31 K/BB ratio last year in 62 IP. I just don’t see anything better on the trade market, which will also cost us prospects. I for one am disappointed.

[lecroy24fan]

 

So is that $43m cash or prorated for this season?

 

If it's prorated, that's not a lot of money. If it isn't prorated, that seems about right (and I'm 50/50 on the Twins committing that kind of money to a reliever so I'm disappointed but not outraged over it).

 

It's $10M this year, $16M the next 2 and one of $16M vesting or club option in 2022 or a $1M buyout.

[Tom Froemming]

Here's some fun numbers I shared on Twitter a few days ago:

 

Last 36.1 IP in the regular season:

 

Craig Kimbrel
1.13 WHIP, 3.41 xFIP, 23.5 K-BB%
30.6 LD%, 22.6 GB%

 

Tyler Duffey
1.05 WHIP, 3.35 xFIP, 22.5 K-BB%
26.0 LD%, 36.0 GB%

 

Of course I'd rather have Kimbrel than Duffey, but there's most definitely a reason why it took Kimbrel this long to sign. He was not impressive at the end of last season or in the postseason last year. The Dodgers gave A.J. Pollock $60MM and surrendered the No. 31 overall pick to do so. It's not like the qualifying offer makes a guy untouchable.

 

Anyway, if Kimbrel can find his command, he'll probably be really good. If not, and he continues to lose some velocity, it could get ugly. Either way, I wouldn't expect the Twins to ever commit $40 million to a reliever.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Last 36.1 IP in the regular season:

 

Craig Kimbrel
1.13 WHIP, 3.41 xFIP, 23.5 K-BB%
30.6 LD%, 22.6 GB%

 

Tyler Duffey
1.05 WHIP, 3.35 xFIP, 22.5 K-BB%
26.0 LD%, 36.0 GB%

I don't think K-BB% is necessarily superior to K%, in this context. Kimbrel has a 40.3% K% in this sample, even with all the walks -- that's like Josh Hader territory. Duffey is at 26.5%, which is pretty close to league average for relievers these days. Those aren't all of a sudden equal indicators just because Duffey walked fewer batters in these 36.1 innings.

 

This is especially evident in Duffey's 1.49 HR/9 over this sample, vs. Kimbrel's at 0.50. Think that control advantage means Duffey is serving up more HR balls in the zone?

 

Also, selective endpoints -- just adding 1.1 innings to the Duffman's sample (Duffey's total 2018-2019 MLB performance to date) and that HR/9 balloons to 2.21. The Duffman has a 5.53 ERA and 4.91 FIP in that span; Kimbrel, 3.13 and 2.71 over his last 37.1 innings (and of course, much better immediately prior to that).

 

Furthermore, Duffey's game-entering leverage index in these innings has been 0.78, which is somewhere between mopup / Rule 5 pick and average. Kimbrel's is 1.66, which is elite reliever territory. 

 

There may be reasons to be concerned about Kimbrel, but these cherry-picked stats certainly aren't it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Let's see the terms before we get too bent out of shape. It's at least three years so I'm already glad they didn't do it if it's more than $50M.

 

 

This deal would have been bad for the Twins. It is $10M this year, not prorated. $16M next 2 plus a club/vesting option in 2022. Yikes.

 

So it was going to be bad if it was over $50 mil.... and then it was still bad when it was confirmed to be only $43 mil? It comes across as fishing for reasons to disparage it.

 

Certainly the club/vesting option year isn't that meaningful -- if it's based on games finished, it's actually probably a good thing for the team -- if he's closing through 2021, he's probably good enough that you want him closing for 2022 too.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

From July 27th (blown save vs Twins) to the end of the season:

 

3-0, 10 SV, 19.1 IP, 4.66 ERA

 

I'm not sure that's worth what he got considering his rough postseason too.

From the other thread -- more selective endpoints!

 

FWIW, even over this cherry-picked sample (which includes his two worst games of the year near the start and end), Kimbrel still had an elite 39.8% K% and .121 opponents batting average, and still a 3.72 FIP and 3.83 xFIP despite the walks.

 

Yeah, he walked too many batters over this sample, which he and the Cubs will obviously try to address, but that's much, much more encouraging than if he stopped striking batters out, or his stuff was getting hit.

[Tom Froemming]

 

 

There may be reasons to be concerned about Kimbrel, but these cherry-picked stats certainly aren't it.

 

You also cherry-picked my comment, so I guess we're even? I wrote a lot more about why I was out on Kimbrel in a blog post a few weeks ago, but here's one more item to consider:

 

Over his final 30 appearances (including the postseason), Kimbrel gave up 18 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings, a 5.17 ERA. He walked 23 of the 137 batters over that stretch, that's a 16.8 BB%. For perspective, Fernando Rodney's career BB% is 11.4. That's about a half season from a reliever.

 

Kimbrel has had a great career, but that doesn't automatically mean he's going to provide you similar production going forward. In fact, it's clear teams don't believe that he will or he would have signed months ago. Now, as smart as I think I am I still don't think I'm smarter than every team in baseball. 

 

And remember, it's not like relievers didn't get paid this winter or that every player with a QO couldn't find a landing spot. Zack Britton got a deal from the Yankees this winter that has the potential to reach four years, $53 million and the Dodgers surrendered the 31st overall pick to sign A.J. Pollock.

[laloesch]

last nights loss is more proof that this team needs bullpen help.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You also cherry-picked my comment, so I guess we're even?

Were you not trying to imply similarity in recent performance between Kimbrel and Duffey? It certainly seemed that way to me, and I thought it was obvious and egregious enough that it deserved correction. I don't think that is necessarily cherry-picking.

 

Edit to add: if you believe the Duffey stats were irrelevant to your larger point, then consider my response less as a rebuttal and more as advice to leave them out. Including them weakens and obscures your main point.

[yarnivek1972]

You also cherry-picked my comment, so I guess we're even? I wrote a lot more about why I was out on Kimbrel in a blog post a few weeks ago, but here's one more item to consider:

 

Over his final 30 appearances (including the postseason), Kimbrel gave up 18 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings, a 5.17 ERA. He walked 23 of the 137 batters over that stretch, that's a 16.8 BB%. For perspective, Fernando Rodney's career BB% is 11.4. That's about a half season from a reliever.

 

Kimbrel has had a great career, but that doesn't automatically mean he's going to provide you similar production going forward. In fact, it's clear teams don't believe that he will or he would have signed months ago. Now, as smart as I think I am I still don't think I'm smarter than every team in baseball.

 

And remember, it's not like relievers didn't get paid this winter or that every player with a QO couldn't find a landing spot. Zack Britton got a deal from the Yankees this winter that has the potential to reach four years, $53 million and the Dodgers surrendered the 31st overall pick to sign A.J. Pollock.

Kimbrel has a LONG way to fall. Even a 10% slip in K%, OBA and HR% per year over the next 3 years leaves him a pretty decent reliever.

[USAFChief]

 

You also cherry-picked my comment, so I guess we're even? I wrote a lot more about why I was out on Kimbrel in a blog post a few weeks ago, but here's one more item to consider:

 

Over his final 30 appearances (including the postseason), Kimbrel gave up 18 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings, a 5.17 ERA. He walked 23 of the 137 batters over that stretch, that's a 16.8 BB%. For perspective, Fernando Rodney's career BB% is 11.4. That's about a half season from a reliever.

 

Kimbrel has had a great career, but that doesn't automatically mean he's going to provide you similar production going forward. In fact, it's clear teams don't believe that he will or he would have signed months ago. Now, as smart as I think I am I still don't think I'm smarter than every team in baseball. 

 

And remember, it's not like relievers didn't get paid this winter or that every player with a QO couldn't find a landing spot. Zack Britton got a deal from the Yankees this winter that has the potential to reach four years, $53 million and the Dodgers surrendered the 31st overall pick to sign A.J. Pollock.

I guess you just think you're smarter than the Cubs...and smarter than the Twins, for whom Kimbrel was reportedly "a priority," and who by all reports tried hard to sign him.

[Riverbrian]

I was hoping that Kimbrel would end up in a Twins uniform but I was prepared to move on in case he didn't... so I've already moved on. 

 

He wasn't the only option, so now instead of cash they'll spit up some prospects instead.  I'm not going to worry about the names but I am going to insist that they add names in support of this team. 

 

The front office should be fully aware that the bullpen has not been fully leaned on because the starting rotation has done the bulk of the being leaned on.

 

This could change fast. Perez has had a couple of shaky starts, injuries can happen at any time. Smeltzer might be alright... or he might not? Risky to risk it all on Smeltzer being your backup option.

 

If we need to lean on the bullpen more because holes start developing in the rotation... Can we? 

 

The front office has to (without question) find arms (either starters or bullpen). This really can't be debated. 

 

 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Were you not trying to imply similarity in recent performance between Kimbrel and Duffey? It certainly seemed that way to me, and I thought it was obvious and egregious enough that it deserved correction. I don't think that is necessarily cherry-picking.

Edit to add: if you believe the Duffey stats were irrelevant to your larger point, then consider my response less as a rebuttal and more as advice to leave them out. Including them weakens and obscures your main point.

The thing I was trying to illustrate is that one guy everybody thinks is great and gets $40+ million and another guy everybody thinks is trash and doesn't belong in the majors have actually performed similarly according to some metrics over what equates to roughly a half of a season for a reliever.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I guess you just think you're smarter than the Cubs...and smarter than the Twins, for whom Kimbrel was reportedly "a priority," and who by all reports tried hard to sign him.

If he was made a priority, I think they would have beat that offer from Chicago. We'll probably never get the details, so maybe it's silly to even speculate, but I'd be willing to bet the Twins' best offer was something like two-years, $25MM. 

[USAFChief]

 

If he was made a priority, I think they would have beat that offer from Chicago. We'll probably never get the details, so maybe it's silly to even speculate, but I'd be willing to bet the Twins' best offer was something like two-years, $25MM. 

I'd be willing to believe they wouldn't go 3 years.

 

Which is ... same old, same old. Not willing to play in the current MLB environment.

 

This team isn't really committed to winning. And I put more blame on ownership than management, but that's irrelevant.

 

The combination of need, and unusual circumstance meeting at least part of that need, for nothing but money, was almost too perfect to believe. Incredible really. And they passed.

 

BTW, your argument has morphed. First you imply Kimbrel isn't any better than Duffey, then change to a monetary argument. Is it your position the Twins would offer Duffey 2/$25? If not, maybe your Kimbrel/Duffey point doesn't hold up to much scrutiny.

 

[Puckett34]

 

last nights loss is more proof that this team needs bullpen help.

 

Low hanging fruit. Sorry. Totally agree with you though

[Mr. Brooks]

I think what we are going to see from this FO, and a lot of fans probably won't like it, is them placing a value on players and not going over that.

 

I'm fine with that. They have a budget that they have to operate under, whether we like it or not.

Beating the Cubs offer, for 3 or 4 years, would have likely meant not being able to keep a current member of the core.

I think at 1 or even 2 years they'd have gone hard after him, but that third year is when this core is going to really start getting expensive. Kimbrel eating $16 million in 2021 would have made for some really difficult decisions.

 

We have the prospect depth to get someone as good or better than Kimbrel, I expect we'll see a move or two come deadline time.

[brvama]

While I'm disappointed, I'm not ready to place blame on anyone. It could have been that Kimbrel preferred a bigger stage with the Cub over money. Or the Twins didn't want to up the anti in $$ or yrs. it is imperative that an upgrade or two be done.

[laloesch]

 

 

Low hanging fruit. Sorry. Totally agree with you though

 

HAHA, I love Captain obvious commercials.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And remember, it's not like relievers didn't get paid this winter or that every player with a QO couldn't find a landing spot. Zack Britton got a deal from the Yankees this winter that has the potential to reach four years, $53 million and the Dodgers surrendered the 31st overall pick to sign A.J. Pollock.

First of all, the Dodgers did not surrender the #31 pick. They actually got the #31 pick, protected, in addition to their #26 pick, for failing to sign a pick in 2018. They only forfeited the ~64th pick for signing Pollock, but also picked up the ~78th pick for losing Grandal to offset the loss.

 

Second of all, not all QO players are equal. Through 2 months, a starting position player could have 200 PA, or a SP could have 11 starts. A reliever may only have 20 IP. So yeah, a team could more easily gamble on a RP to save a draft pick. (And the Cubs already had a closer worth gambling on covering a few of those innings too -- Morrow was expected to return before now.)

 

And it's not just the draft pick for these big-money clubs -- it's also the luxury tax. The Cubs not only saved their draft pick, but also ~$6 mil off their 2019 luxury tax payroll by gambling with those 20 RP innings. That could be significant.

 

Since the start of QO compensation in 2013, only 4 teams have surrendered a draft pick to sign a reliever. The two most recent -- the 2018 Rockies (Davis) and Cardinals (Holland) -- both had an extra, protected "Competitive Balance" pick before round 2, AND both received comp picks after round 2 for losing players. That more than offset their forfeited 2nd round picks.

 

Of the two other teams, the 2015 White Sox (David Robertson), had a protected top-10 pick, and also signed another QO FA so in effect they may have only had to forfeit their third round pick (82 overall) to sign Robertson. And the 2013 Nationals (Rafael Soriano) had MLB's best record in 2012, so only forfeited the ~30th overall pick (before all first round picks were protected) -- that still looks pretty bad, but I'd guess that teams have learned a bit more about how to value these picks and FAs since then too!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The thing I was trying to illustrate is that one guy everybody thinks is great and gets $40+ million and another guy everybody thinks is trash and doesn't belong in the majors have actually performed similarly according to some metrics over what equates to roughly a half of a season for a reliever.

Sure, but if those metrics aren't particularly meaningful, is that a point worth illustrating? I mean, who's really looking at a half season of a reliever's K-BB%, without also considering their K%? (Not to mention HR rate and leverage)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Over his final 30 appearances (including the postseason), Kimbrel gave up 18 earned runs in 31 1/3 innings, a 5.17 ERA. He walked 23 of the 137 batters over that stretch, that's a 16.8 BB%. For perspective, Fernando Rodney's career BB% is 11.4. That's about a half season from a reliever.

 

Kimbrel has had a great career, but that doesn't automatically mean he's going to provide you similar production going forward

I mentioned in another comment, but I'd actually be somewhat encouraged that his second half regular season struggles were almost entirely with control. Even during that stretch, he was still striking guys out and limiting hits at roughly his career rates. (And 40% of his walks from July 27 to the end of the season came in just 7% of his innings, suggesting the control problem may have been more isolated than consistent?)

 

And his postseason, while he made Boston fans very nervous, he ultimately wound up 6-for-6 in save opportunities, he stranded both of his inherited runners, and preserved his one tie appearance too. All while facing 3 of the top 4 offenses in baseball. (Admittedly he didn't get tested with any 1-run leads, which made his job much easier!)

 

Of course, I'm no scout, and if I was a GM I wouldn't hire myself as a scout. There's going to be a lot more to see and consider about him than his stat line. But from a fan's perspective, just looking at his stat line, I don't see *too* much cause for concern. I wouldn't want to do 5/75 for him or anything, but 3/43 with no draft pick compensation, and 2 extra months to evaluate internal options before committing, seems like a pretty solid deal.